TUESDAY FOOTBALL NEWS AND NOTES

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

The Holiday Bowl is the main event on the bowl slate Tuesday, but there are two more games for gamblers to tackle. Let’s take a look at both of those matchups.

**Maryland vs. Nevada**

--The Humanitarian Bowl is a WAC-ACC showdown on the blue carpet in Boise. ESPN will have the telecast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Maryland (7-5 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) as a one-point favorite with a total of 55½. As of Monday afternoon, most books were listing Nevada (7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) as the two-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 58.

--Maryland is in a bowl game for the sixth time during Ralph Friedgen’s eight-year tenure. However, the Terrapins lost back-to-back games to close the year, including a 28-21 loss at Boston College as 6 ½-point underdogs in the regular-season finale. They were run out of their own stadium by FSU in a 37-3 clubbing the previous week.

--Nevada won three of its last four games to get bowl eligible. The Wolf Pack’s lone loss during that stretch was a 41-34 home loss to Boise State. Chris Ault’s squad finished the regular season with a 35-31 victory at La. Tech, but it failed to cover the number as a 4 ½-point favorite. Colin Kaepernick torched the Bulldogs with 397 passing yards and four touchdowns.

--Kaepernick is the catalyst for Nevada’s offense that averaged 510.5 yards per game (fifth-best in the nation). The sophomore QB threw for 2,479 yards with a touchdown-interception ratio of 19/5. Kaepernick also ran for 1,115 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Since a 69-17 loss at Missouri back in Week 3, he led the Wolf Pack’s offense to a 41.0 points per game average.

--Nevada suffered a huge loss early in the season when senior running back Luke Lippincott went down with a season-ending injury. Lippincott had rushed for 1,420 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2007. In his absence, sophomore Vai Taua erupted for a monster campaign. Taua actually duplicated Lippincott’s rushing yardage from last season, gaining 1,420 yards of his own to go with 14 TDs. He averaged 6.7 YPC.

--As if containing Nevada’s high-octane offense wasn’t going to be enough of a challenge, Maryland is without defensive coordinator Chris Cosh, who recently left the program to take the same job at Kansas State. Outside linebackers coach Al Seamonson has been named the interim coordinator.

--Maryland junior QB Chris Turner has an 11/10 TD-INT ratio. Those are ho-hum numbers, but Turner is off a career-best performance in the loss at BC. He posted career-highs in completions (33), attempts (57) and passing yards (360).

--Turner has one of the ACC’s best wide receivers for a favorite target. That would be senior Darrius Heyward-Bey, who finished the regular season with 38 receptions for 561 yards and five touchdowns.

--Maryland’s featured RB in Da’Rel Scott, who rushed for 959 yards and six TDs this year. Scott averaged 4.9 YPC.

--Although this is a neutral-field game, we should note Maryland’s road struggles, especially since it has ventured all the way across the country for this contest. The Terrapins went 1-4 both SU and ATS on the road.

--Maryland is 3-2 both SU and ATS in bowl games under Friedgen. The Terps dropped a 21-14 decision to Oregon St. as five-point ‘dogs in last season’s Emerald Bowl.

--Nevada is bowling for the fourth straight season. The Wolf Pack is 1-2 both SU and ATS in its last three bowl games. They lost 23-0 to New Mexico in last year’s New Mexico Bowl.

--The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for Nevada, but the ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for Maryland. The ‘over’ hit in each of the Wolf Pack’s last three games, while the ‘under’ went 6-2 in the Terrapins’ last eight outings.

**Western Michigan vs. Rice**

--These schools will square off Tuesday night at the Texas Bowl in Houston. LVSC opened Rice (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) as a 3½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 70. As of Monday afternoon, most spots had the Owls as 2½-point favorites with the total bumped up to 73.

--Rice has quietly been a steady money maker in 2008. The Owls feature one of the best QB-WR combinations in the country in Chase Clement and Jarrett Dillard. Clement and Dillard have shredded the school’s record book during their careers. Clement threw for 3,812 yards this season with a 41/7 TD-INT ratio. He can also tuck it run, gaining 621 yards on the ground while finding paydirt 11 times. Dillard hauled in 79 catches for 1,224 yards and 19 TDs.

--Western Michigan (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) saw its three-game winning streak halted in its regular-season finale. The Broncos lost 45-22 at Ball St. as 10-point underdogs.

--Western Michigan QB Tim Hiller is often overshadowed by Nate Davis and Dan LeFevour in the MAC, but the junior signal caller has enjoyed a sensational 2008 season. Hiller has a 34/8 TD-INT ratio, throwing for 3,527 yards while completing 66.7 percent of his passes.

--The Broncos are 2-2 ATS as underdogs. Meanwhile, Rice has a 4-1 spread record as a single-digit favorite.

--Dillard gets most of the notoriety but Clement also likes looking for sophomore TE James Casey, who has made 104 receptions for 1,217 yards and 12 TDs.

--Rice hasn’t won a bowl game since beating Alabama 28-6 in the 1953 Cotton Bowl. The Owls have only made one bowl appearance since 1961, losing 41-17 to Troy in the 2006 New Orleans Bowl.

--Western Michigan is playing in just the fourth bowl game in school history. The Broncos went to the 2006 International Bowl, losing 27-24 to Cincinnati. The Broncos did take the money, however, as seven-point underdogs.

--The ‘over has been a money maker for both squads. Rice has watched the ‘over’ go 9-3 overall, while Western Michigan has seen the ‘over’ hit at a 7-4 clip.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Alabama All-American OT Andre Smith has been suspended for the Sugar Bowl for an unspecified violation of team rules.

--Former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis has agreed in principle to take the same job at LSU.

--Memo to Central Michigan head coach Butch Jones: When you’re trailing 24-13 and facing fourth-and-goal from the six yard line midway through the fourth quarter, you settle for the field goal to make it a one-possession game. Instead, Jones opted to go for it and the Chippewas failed to convert. They later scored but lost to FAU by a 24-21 count.

vegasinsider.com

Humanitarian Bowl
By Matt Fargo

The Betting Numbers

This line has stayed pretty stable since Nevada opened as a one-point favorite. There has been some recent movement but that has been just a half-point in the Terrapins favor as they are getting 1.5-points in most places. However, doing some shopping will get you two points and there probably isn’t going to be much more movement in this one. The total opened between 57 and 58 and is also holding pretty steady with a couple rare 58.5’s available. Like most games, this total will rise once we get closer to gametime.

Series History

This is the first ever meeting between Nevada and Maryland.

The Teams

It was a roller coaster season for Nevada who started the FBS slate with back-to-back losses against Texas Tech and Missouri before posting consecutive road wins against UNLV and Idaho. The Wolf Pack closed out the season going 4-3 and it really could have been better as those three setbacks were by an average of just 5.7 ppg. The four victories meanwhile came by 17 ppg. Nevada finished in a tie with Hawaii and Louisiana Tech for second place in the WAC, all of whom finished three games behind Boise St. This is Nevada’s seventh trip to a bowl game and fourth straight which is a school record.

Maryland had an up and down season as well but it was mostly down toward the end. After a tough loss against SBC team Middle Tennessee, the Terrapins woke up with five wins in their next six games but people are still scratching their heads as that one loss was a 31-0 drubbing in Virginia. The streak didn’t provide much momentum however as Maryland closed the season with losses in three of its final four games although all four did come against teams that are also in bowls. This will be Maryland’s 23rd bowl game and third straight after taking a two-year hiatus in 2004 and 2005.

Against the Numbers

This was the second straight losing season for the Wolf Pack against the number as they went 5-6 ATS. That does include a 1-3 ATS mark as an underdog sop when laying points, as they are here, they went a profitable 4-3 ATS. However, two of those wins were when they were laying over three touchdowns. A strong offense and a below average defense kept ‘over’ backers happy as Nevada surpassed the number in seven of its 11 lined games. Even stronger is that it went 4-0 ‘over’ with totals of 61 or less.

Maryland burned a hole in the wallets of its backers for a second straight year as it also went 5-6 against the number. The Terrapins started strong by going 3-1 ATS in their first four games but laid eggs in five of their final seven. It could have been worse as one of those late ATS wins covered by just four points. The Terrapins were just the opposite of Nevada as far as totals as seven of their 11 games finished ‘under’. This includes six of the final eight games and Maryland has not seen a total higher than 54 all year.

The Matchup

When you talk about Nevada, you talk about offense. The Wolf Pack finished the regular season averaging 510.6 ypg which was 5th in the country. The main reason for the success was a rushing offense that finished second in the nation behind Navy. It is a two-pronged attack with tailback Vai Taua and quarterback Colin Kaepernick who named the WAC Offensive Player of the Year. They will be facing a defense that struggled this season as Maryland finished 60th in total defense but a more respectable 37th in scoring defense.

The Terrapins were 76th in total offense and a very below average 100th in scoring offense, averaging just 20.1 ppg. Maryland was held to 17 points or fewer six times and one of those was against FBS team Delaware. Nevada finished dead last in the country in passing defense, allowing 321.1 ypg which was the worst by a wide margin. The Wolf Pack made up for it with the 3rd ranked rushing defense but that success was due to teams not needing to run as they saw the third fewest rushing attempts.

Intangibles

This is the second Humanitarian Bowl appearance for Nevada in the last three years. It lost to Miami 21-20 but covered as four-point dogs. Even though the Wolf Pack have experience playing in this stadium, they have never won on the blue carpet, going 0-6 (2-4 ATS L5 as dogs). Maryland has allowed an average of only 9.5 ppg in its last four bowl games and facing this type of rushing team has not been a problem in the past as it is 10-1 ATS against foes averaging 200 or more ypg rushing over the last nine years.

VegasInsider.com

What bettors need to know: Holiday Bowl
By Ted Sevransky

Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3, 77)

Head-to-head

The Ducks and the Cowboys have never faced one another. They did face one common opponent this season, lowly Washington State, a game that both teams were able to win and cover with ease. Oklahoma State has only one other game against a Pac-10 school in the last six years, beating UCLA in its season opener back in 2004. Oregon has played three games against Big 12 foes in the last six years, facing Oklahoma each time. The Ducks lost the first two meetings but pulled the upset over the Sooners when they last met in 2006.

Favorite disaster

The Holiday Bowl features a Pac-10 vs. Big 12 battle. More often than not, the favorite in this game comes in with some semblance of disappointment having to playing in a pre-New Year’s Day bowl game while getting shut out of some bigger venues. Perhaps that’s why we’ve seen the underdogs dominate this particular bowl game, going 8-2 ATS in the last ten years including five outright underdog upset victories.

Bad bowler

Oregon has not been a good bowl team in recent years under Mike Bellotti. The Ducks snapped a four-game bowl losing streak with their blowout over South Florida in the Sun Bowl last year. It was their first bowl win since the 2001 Fiesta Bowl domination against Colorado. The Ducks have been feisty underdogs in bowl games under Bellotti at 5-1 ATS since 1999, including outright upset wins over Texas, Minnesota, Colorado and South Florida.

Oklahoma State hung 49 points on Indiana in a blowout win at the Insight Bowl last year. They also beat Alabama by a field goal in the 2006 Independence Bowl, with the pointspread bouncing between Oklahoma State -2.5 and -3.5. Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy takes bowl season very seriously as he tries to elevate the program to the same level as his neighbors in the Big 12 South.

Injury concerns

Oregon has battled injuries all season. At one point, the Ducks were down to their fourth string quarterback in a home loss to Boise State back in September. While the Ducks are healthy at QB now, they’re still without a few key components including linebackers Kevin Garrett and Terrance Pritchard. Both of whom are serving suspensions as of this writing. Oklahoma State enters its bowl game almost completely healthy.

Run, Forest, run

Oregon was the single best team in the country at running the football this year. Their ‘true’ rushing yards per carry average was a whopping 6.88 ypc, nearly a full yard per carry better than Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had the more balanced offense during the regular season and their 489 yards per game average ranked seventh in all of college football.

Line moves

The pointspread hasn’t moved with Oklahoma State holding steady as a 3-point favorite. We’ve seen a very slight move to the under with the opening total of 77 bet down to 76.5 points.

HUMANITARIAN BOWL

Nevada (7-5, 5-6 ATS) vs. Maryland (7-5, 5-6 ATS) (at Boise, Idaho)

Maryland, which stumbled in the second half of the season, looks to end the year on a high note when it travels cross-country to face Nevada at Bronco Stadium on the Boise State campus.

The Terrapins went 1-3 SU and ATS in their final four games, quickly sliding down the bowl game pecking order to land in this lower-tier contest. In the Nov. 29 regular-season finale, Maryland lost to Boston College 28-21 as a 6½-point road underdog, despite rallying on two Chris Turner touchdown passes. However, sandwiched between those two scores, Turner threw an INT that was returned 36 yards for BC’s final score with 1:42 remaining, leaving only enough time for one more Terps TD drive.

The Wolf Pack won three of their last four games (2-2 ATS) to gain bowl eligibility. In fact, their only loss in that stretch was to undefeated Boise State, and they put up a strong fight before falling 41-34 as a 6½-point home pup. A week later, on Nov. 29, they finished with a 35-31 victory at Louisiana Tech, failing to cover as a 4½-point chalk. QB Colin Kaepernick (24 of 42, 397 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) had a monster day as Nevada put up 500 yards, but the defense also allowed 443 yards (185 rushing).

This will be the first meeting between Maryland, out of the ACC, and Nevada, out of the Western Athletic Conference. The Terrapins are in their sixth bowl game in the last eight years, and they are 3-1 SU in their last four and 3-2 SU and ATS in bowl games under coach Ralph Friedgen. In last year’s the Emerald Bowl, Maryland lost to Oregon State 21-14 catching five points.

The Wolf Pack are in a school-record fourth straight postseason contest, going 1-2 SU and ATS the past three seasons. Last year, Nevada got blanked by New Mexico 23-0 as a two-point ‘dog in the New Mexico Bowl. Two years ago, playing in this contest in Boise, the Pack lost to Miami 21-20 but covered as a 3½-point ‘dog, marking the only other time Nevada has played an ACC school. Nevada coach Chris Ault is on a 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS skid against BCS-conference schools.

Maryland, which finished tied for fourth in the ACC’s Atlantic Division, is averaging 20.1 points and 342.2 total yards per game (134.8 rushing ypg). Turner has completed 57.9 percent of his passes for 2,320 yards, but his 11 TD throws have been offset by 10 INTs. On the other side of the ball, the Terps are allowing 355.6 total ypg (150 rushing ypg) and are outside the top 50 nationally in every major defensive category other than scoring defense, where they are at 36th, giving up 21.4 ppg.

Nevada sports the nation’s second-best rushing attack at a whopping 290.8 ypg and also ranks 12th in scoring offense (37.8 ppg) and fifth in total offense (510 ypg). Kaepernick (2,479 passing yards, 54.9 completion percentage) has a 19-5 TD-to-INT differential, and he’s also rushed for 1,103 yards (7.2 ypc) and another 16 TDs. Wolf Pack RB Vai Taua has rushed for 1,432 yards (6.7 ypc) and 13 TDs. Defensively, the Pack allow 396.5 ypg and are particularly susceptible to the pass (321.2 ypg), but despite getting run over in the finale at Louisiana Tech, they allow just 75 yards rushing, good for third in the country.

The Terrapins are on a 5-1 ATS surge following a SU loss, but they are on ATS slides of 1-4 overall and 0-4 on turf. The Wolf Pack are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after a SU victory, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 5-0 on turf, 23-11 as a favorite, 5-1 as a chalk of three points or less and 13-4 coming off a pointspread setback.

The under for Maryland is on tears of 6-2 overall, 4-0 in bowl games, 5-1 against winning teams and 13-6 in non-conference play. On the flip side, the over for Nevada is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win and 5-1 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEVADA

TEXAS BOWL

Western Michigan (9-3, 5-6 ATS) vs. Rice (9-3, 8-4 ATS) (at Houston)

Rice hopes to continue its strong second-half run when it plays a virtual home game against Western Michigan at Reliant Stadium.

The Owls ripped off victories in their last six games (5-1 ATS), putting up no less than 35 points per game in the process. In their regular-season finale on Nov. 29, they matched their season high in points with a 56-42 victory over Houston as a 3½-point home pup, scoring early in the fourth quarter to go up 56-28 before letting off the gas the rest of the way. QB Chase Clement (28 of 41, 381 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) had a huge day, and Rice also rushed for 198 yards to finish with 591 total yards – yet the Owls still got outgained, allowing 634 yards, including 494 passing yards and five TDs from Houston QB Case Keenum.

After opening the year with a loss at Nebraska, Western Michigan went 9-2 SU the rest of the way (5-5 ATS in lined games). However, the Broncos got shelled by then-undefeated Ball State 45-22 as a 10-point road ‘dog in their Nov. 25 regular-season finale, ending a 3-0 SU run (2-1 ATS). The Broncos were outgained 452-343, and QB Tim Hiller (15 of 32, 145 yards, 1 TD) had a inordinately rough outing, with one of his two INTs returned for a touchdown.

Rice, which fell just short of playing in the Conference USA title game by finishing second in the West Division, is in a bowl game for the second time in three years, after experiencing a 45-year postseason drought. In the 2006 New Orleans Bowl, the Owls tumbled to Troy 41-17 as a five-point chalk.

Western Michigan, which took second in the Mid-American Conference’s West Division, is also in its second postseason contest in the last three years and just its fourth bowl game ever. In their most recent bowl appearance in the 2006 International Bowl, the Broncos lost to Cincinnati 27-24, but they cashed as a seven-point ‘dog.

Rice is in the top 10 nationally in three offensive categories, with per-game averages of 41.6 points (ninth), 472.2 total yards (10th) and 327.8 passing yards (fifth). Clement has had a monster year, completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,812 yards, with 41 TDs and just seven INTs, and he has also ran for 621 yards and 11 scores. Jarett Dillard (79 catches, 1,224 yards, 19 TDs, 15.5 ypc) has been Clement’s primary target.

Western Michigan has the nation’s 10th-best passing offense, at 301.2 ypg, and is averaging 420 total ypg (25th) and 29.8 ppg (37th). Like Clement, Hiller has had a huge season, completing 66.7 percent of his throws for 3,527 yards and 34 TDs, against just eight INTs. RB Brandon West (970 yards rushing, 5.1 ypc, 255 yards receiving) leads the Broncos with 11 TDs.

Both teams struggle defensively. The Owls rank outside the Top 100 in scoring defense (34.9 ppg, 108th), total defense (466.8 ypg, 115th) and passing defense (273.8 ypg, 114th), and they also give up 192.9 ypg on the ground. Western Michigan yields just 23.8 ppg, but 390.3 total ypg, including 249.4 passing ypg, which ranks 97th in the nation.

Rice went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS as a chalk this year and won those contests by an average of 17 ppg, and the Owls are also on a 4-1 ATS uptick following a SU win. However, they are in pointspread funks of 5-16 in non-conference play and 2-6 against winning teams. The Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of three points or less, but they are on ATS skids of 2-5-1 after a SU loss, 2-5-1 against winning teams and 3-7-1 after a pointspread setback.

The over for Rice is on sprees of 42-9 overall, 13-3 when the Owls are favored, 5-1 on grass, 17-5 after a SU win and 23-8 outside Conference USA, and the over for Western Michigan is on rolls of 9-1 in non-conference play, 9-1 with the Broncos as a ‘dog, 4-1 against winning teams and 12-4 on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: RICE and OVER

HOLIDAY BOWL

(15) Oregon (9-3, 6-6 ATS) vs. (13) Oklahoma State (9-3, 8-3 ATS) (at San Diego)

For the second time in a week, Qualcomm Stadium hosts a matchup of ranked teams, as surging Oregon travels down the Pacific Coast to face Oklahoma State.

The Ducks won five of their last six regular-season games, closing with a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) that saw them score a total of 155 points the last three in a row. In their finale against archrival Oregon State, the Ducks rumbled to a 65-38 road as a 2½-point road underdog to keep the Beavers out of the Rose Bowl. QB Jeremiah Masoli (17 carries, 219 yards, 1 TD) and RB LeGarrette Blount (17 carries, 112 yards, 1 TD) led a rushing attack that racked up 385 yards (7.5 ypc), and Masoli added another 274 yards and three TDs through the air on just 11 completions as Oregon finished with an eye-popping 694-463 edge in total yards.

Oklahoma State was firmly in the BCS mix until losing three of its last five games (2-3 ATS) in the hotly contested Big 12 South Division. The Cowboys were dealt a respectable loss at then-No. 1 Texas (28-24 catching 11½ points). But two weeks later, they got blasted at Texas Tech 56-20 as a 3½-point underdog, then got run off their home field in the Nov. 29 season finale against archrival Oklahoma, a 61-41 whipping as a 10-point home underdog. In that contest, QB Zac Robinson (17 of 26, 254 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a decent outing, as he also rushed for 90 yards and a TD, but Oklahoma State got outgained 557-452 and allowed the Sooners to score the last 17 points of the game.

Oregon, which finished second in the Pac-10, is in a bowl game for the 11th time in the past 12 seasons, and it’s the program’s first-ever contest against Oklahoma State. Coach Mike Bellotti is just 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS in the postseason, but his Ducks pounded South Florida 56-21 as a six-point pup in last year’s Sun Bowl. Oregon is playing in the Holiday Bowl for the third time (1-1 SU and ATS).

Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy has his team in a bowl game for third time in his four-year tenure (2-0 SU and ATS), and the Cowboys are looking for just their fourth 10-win season in the program’s history. In last year’s Insight Bowl in Arizona, Oklahoma State hammered Indiana 49-33 as a six-point favorite. This is the Cowboys’ second trip to the Holiday Bowl, with the first coming 20 years ago in a 62-14 rout of Wyoming as a 2½-point chalk – with Gundy leading the way at quarterback for OSU.

Oregon put up 31 points or more in 10 of its 12 games, and the offense ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring (41.9 ppg, 7th), total yards (478.2, 8th) and rushing yards (277.8, 4th). The Ducks played musical chairs at quarterback for much of the season, with Masoli (nine starts) proving most effective as a dual threat. He’s completing 57 percent of his passes for 1,486 yards with 12 TDs and just four INTs, and he’s rushed for 612 yards (5.5 ypc) and seven more scores. RBs Jeremiah Johnson (156 carries, 1,082 yards, 12 TDs, 6.9 ypc) and Blount (130 carries, 928 yards, 7.1 ypc, 16 TDs) combined for 2,010 rushing yards on the year.

Oklahoma State, which ended up fourth in the Big 12 South, has a steady balance of pass and run, averaging 233.5 yards through the air and a healthy 255.8 on the ground (seventh-best in the nation). The Cowboys, who put up 30 or more nine times in 12 contest, also rate in the top 10 in scoring offense (41.6 ppg, 8th) and total offense (489.2 ypg, 7th). Robinson completed 67 percent of his passes for 2,735 yards, with 24 TDs and just eight INTs, and the mobile QB also rushed for 508 yards (3.9 ypc) and seven scores. RB Kendall Hunter has rolled up 1,518 yards (6.7 ypc) and 14 TDs, and WR Dez Bryant has 74 catches for 1,313 yards and (17.7 ypc) and 18 TDs.

Defensively, the Ducks are fair against the run (119.4 ypg, 24th nationally), but they allow 383 total ypg (263.6 passing, 109th) and 28 ppg (78th). Like Oregon, the Cowboys are decent against the run (124 ypg, 26th), but their drop-offs are also similar to the Ducks, as they allow 392.5 ypg, including 268.5 passing ypg (111th). Oklahoma State allows an average of 26.9 ppg, outscoring teams by nearly 15 ppg.

The Ducks are on ATS streaks of 5-1 as a bowl underdog, 13-5 catching three points or less and 5-2 in non-conference play. However, they were 1-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this season, with the win and cover coming in the season-ending rout of Oregon State, and they carry further negative ATS trends of 2-5 in December, 2-5 on grass and 2-5 against winning teams.

The Cowboys went 8-0 SU and 7-1 as a chalk this season, and they are on additional positive pointspread stretches of 9-3 overall, 4-0 outside the Big 12, 41-20-2 in their last 63 games as a favorite, 6-1 after a double-digit home loss, 7-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 against winning teams.

The over for Oregon is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 outside the Pac-10 and 6-2-1 against winning teams, and the over for Oklahoma State is on tears of 4-1 in non-conference play, 8-3 against winning teams, 12-5 when the Cowboys are favored and 14-6 after a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and OVER

Gametimepicks.com

Texas Bowl - Western Michigan vs. Rice
by Scott Spreitzer

The Texas Bowl looks like one of the more exciting bowl matchups this season, at least on paper. Too bad many people will not be able to watch this one since it's being aired on the NFL Network. Both teams are quite motivated to be here. It's not often a MAC school gets to play in a decent bowl setting outside of the Motor City Bowl or January's GMAC Bowl. Meanwhile, Rice is excited for the bowl bid even though it's being played in their hometown of Houston.

The Owls won nine games this season for the first time since 1949! While both offensive units are strong, Rice's offense has been unbelievable. QB Chase Clement is an excellent spread attack quarterback. His offense owns a 7.7 pypa mark, not to mention, runs the ball for more than five yards per pop. Clement's wide receivers may be the best duo in the NCAA this season with Jarett Dillard and James Casey combining for 183 receptions for 2,441 yards (both went over 12-hundred yards receiving) and 31 touchdowns. Dillard averaged 102 yards receiving per game while Casey averaged 101.4! As good as they have been through the air, the Owls can also move the ball on the ground when needed. C.J. Ugokwe ran for 755 yards at five yards per carry. And, Clement added another 621 yards, himself. But his strong-point is obviously his accurate arm. Clement finished the season with a 66% completion rate, 41 TDs and just 7 INTs!

Western Michigan has been quite capable on offense this season, also. But they don't quite own the firepower that Rice does. Of course, WMU did play the tougher slate. They faced MAC-bound bowl teams Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, and Northern Illinois. And, the Broncos also had to face Gator Bowl participant Nebraska. So, their offensive numbers may be less than Rice's, but there's a good reason for it.

While Rice owns the more talented offense with the huge numbers, the Broncos own the better defense. Rice has allowed about 5.2 yards per carry. They have given up over 270 passing yards per game at a 58% completion rate. And, they have been scorched for 32 TD passes while picking off just 14. The Owls play a 4-2-5 base, but it hasn't been working, as they allow 35 ppg.

So, the Texas Bowl basically comes down to the ridiculously strong Rice offense against Western Michigan's decent defense. And, if the Bronco stop-unit can force a couple of punts, QB Tim Hiller is no slouch. Hiller led the MAC in passing yards and finished runner-up in the conference in both pass efficiency and total offense per game. If Rice is to win this game, since they allow 35 ppg, they will need a shootout affair. WMU would like to keep it in the high 20s.

Rice must change their ways outside of Conference-USA action, where they're just 3-10 SU and 3-9 ATS the last 13 times. Will WMU provide the sweet elixir? We'll see if the MAC continues to struggle after Central Michigan's lackluster performance against FAU, or if Western Michigan's difficult schedule has toughened them up enough to slow down the Rice offense. No matter who wins, this year's Texas Bowl should be one of the more interesting and exciting games of the bowl season.

Holiday Bowl
By B Young

There should be plenty of offensive fireworks for the Holiday Bowl featuring two high-octane teams. Oregon and Oklahoma State average more than 41 points per game, helping this game total tie for the highest of any bowl game. The Ducks and Cowboys have such potent offenses and average defenses that there were over 100 combined points in both of their season-ending rivalry games.

Oregon (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) has been beating opponents behind a lethal ground game that has racked up 3,334 yards. However, the Ducks might want to air it out a bit more in this contest considering that the Cowboys’ pass defense ranks 110th out of 119th Football Bowl Subdivision teams.

"Oregon is 5-1 ATS their last six bowl games as an underdog," stated VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco. "But Oklahoma State is 4-0 ATS its last four non-conference games so something will have to give in this contest."

Oregon’s pass defense has also struggled, ranking just two spots ahead of Oklahoma State. The Cowboys will also be without the services of defensive coordinator Tim Beckman, who has left the team to become the head football coach at Toledo.

Oklahoma State (9-3 SU, 8-3 ATS) has its sights set on a school-record tying 10th win in the Cowboys’ first-ever matchup with Oregon. Oklahoma State has played in the Holiday Bowl just once in school history when the 1988 squad throttled Wyoming, 62-14. Current head coach Mike Gundy was the quarterback of that team and is in the bowls’ Hall of Fame after completing 20-of-24 passes for 315 yards with two touchdowns.

Caesars Palace installed Oklahoma State as a three-point ‘chalk’ over Oregon, with the total set at an astounding 76. ESPN will provide coverage of the Holiday Bowl beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET.

"These two teams come in with very similar stats, both are averaging over 41 points per game," said Franco. "We will see both teams showcase their running games, but the team that will win will be the team that plays better defense."

Oregon wrapped up the regular season by winning its last three games SU and previous two ATS. The Ducks ended Oregon State’s dreams of a Rose Bowl by beating the Beavers November 29 as a three-point road underdog, 65-38. The combined 103 points soared ‘over’ the 58 ½-point closing total.

Oregon jumped out to a 37-17 halftime edge, and finished the contest with sizeable advantages in rushing yards (385-89) and turnovers forced (4-0). Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli completed 11-of-17 passes for 274 yards with three touchdowns, while Jeremiah Johnson paced the ground game with 17 carries for 219 yards and a score.

Oklahoma State has alternated SU wins and losses the past six games after falling to rival Oklahoma November 29 as a 9½-point home underdog, 61-41. The combined 102 points went ‘over’ the 75-point closing total.

This was a close contest until the Sooners posted the games’ final 17 points. Most of the vital game stats were close, but Oklahoma State was undone by a pair of turnovers. Quarterback Zac Robinson was 17-of-26 passing for 254 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, while rushing 17 times for 90 yards and a score.

Oregon is making its third Holiday Bowl appearance this decade. The Ducks beat Texas back in 2000 during a shootout, 35-30, before losing to Oklahoma three years ago, 17-14. Oklahoma State is making its sixth bowl appearance the past seven years.

Oregon and Oklahoma State are reporting no players that are listed as ‘probable,’ ‘questionable’ or ‘doubtful’ for this contest.

Tuesday’s forecast for San Diego, California calls for sunny skies, with a high of 68 degrees and a low of 50.

vegasinsider.com

What bettors need to know: Texas Bowl
By David Chan

Western Michigan vs. Rice (-3, 73)

Line movement

Rice opened as a 2-point favorite but has since been bet up to –3 as the home-town Houston faves. The total has risen a full three points since opening at 70. Not surprising given the over went a combined 16-7 in the two teams’ 23 lined games this season.

Key injuries

From a Western Michigan standpoint, keep an eye on the status of running back Brandon West. He has been a bit of an every-man for the Broncos this season, picking up over 1,800 total yards. He is currently listed as probable but is nursing a nagging ankle injury. Tight end Branden Ledbetter and corner Londen Fryar are both expected to miss.

There are no new injury developments for the Owls. They’ll be at full strength, just as they have been for much of the season.

Weather

This one will be played in the climate controlled confines of Reliant Stadium in Houston, so weather conditions will not be a factor. The fast track and near perfect conditions should aid the offenses. As if they needed it.

Aerial assault

The Broncos and Owls boast two of the most potent passing games in the nation, led by QBs Tim Hiller and Chase Clement. The two combined to throw for 75 touchdowns this season. They aren’t likely to face much resistance, as the word defense doesn’t happen to be in either team’s vocabulary.

MAC vs. C-USA

These two conferences have been gaining more and more respect with the likes of Ball State, Central Michigan and surprise champion Buffalo leading the charge in the MAC and Tulsa and East Carolina turning heads in the C-USA. If you don’t know much about the Broncos and Owls, you could be in for a treat.

It’s been a while

Rice will be shooting for its first Bowl victory in 54 years and only the second 10-win season in the program’s history. The Owls didn’t post a single winning season from 1964 to 1991 and have only posted 10 winning seasons 96 years.

Fourth time’s a charm?

The Broncos are looking for their first victory in what will their fourth bowl appearance. This is the second time they’ve gone bowling under head coach Bill Cubit. They lost 27-24 to Cincinnati in the International Bowl in 2007.

Holiday Bowl Preview
by: IndianCowboy

Oklahoma State this year was one of the most productive teams ATS wise as they were 8-3 ATS. Both teams today were 9-3 on the year and note that Oregon played to the over to a tune of 7-3 while the totals for Oklahoma State were relatively balanced as they were 6-5 to the over. Oregon comes into this game covering back to back games including blowing out their rival in Oregon State 65-38 and easily covering the 2.5 spread. Oregon also defeated Arizona 55-45 covering the -6 point spread. Oklahoma State comes just as irritated as they lost to their rival Oklahoma 41-61 and were unable to cover the 10 point spread at home. Oklahoma State comes into this game having failed to cover their last three contests. This includes losing to Texas Tech 20-56 on the road unable to cover the -3.5 road chalk, defeating Colorado 30-17 on the road, and of course the loss to Oklahoma at home. This game is held in San Diego which obviously favors Oregon as they travel well, but so does Oklahoma State. I remember a game a bowl game prior to Saban's arrival two years ago when Alabama and Oklahoma State hooked up and Oklahoma State traveled well to that game so their faithful will undubtedly be there. The Big 12 has looked fairly well but note that Missouri had its hands full with Northwestern last night as they were a Big 10 school but Oklahoma State is better than Missou. After all, they defeated Missou outright on the road and held a better record than them in the Big 12 this year. Tough call to make either way, but a small lean on Oklahoma State here but special teams and the fewest turnovers usually make the difference in games such as this.

Humanitarian Bowl

Long way for Maryland to travel to play WAC team on a Tuesday; they were 4-1 at one point, with wins over Cal, Clemson, but lost three of last four games, scoring just 13.5 ppg- they were outscored 67-23 in the first half of those games. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in Maryland's bowls in Friedgen era, with Terps winning three of last four- they lost 21-14 LY in San Francisco, against Oregon State in Emerald Bowl. Terps had only one INT in their last seven games, bad news against a WAC team.

Nevada is in fourth straight bowl, splitting pair of one-point games, then getting shut out 23-0 by New Mexico in Albuquerque LY; they lost in this game to Miami two years ago, 21-20. Wolf Pack allowed an average of 46.2 ppg in their five losses, 19.6 in their wins- they had +8 turnover ratio in their last four games, with only one giveaway. Nevada lost 35-19 at home to Texas Tech this year (+9.5), 69-17 at Missouri (+26)- only two of its twelve games this season were decided by less than 7 points.

Three of last four Humanitarian Bowls were won by six points or less, with ACC teams 3-2 in last five visits here. WAC teams are 1-3 in bowls this season, with Louisiana Tech winning a home game in Shreveport Sunday; they're 12-23 vs spread in non-conference games this season. ACC teams are 2-3 in bowls this season after Papajohn's Bowl Monday they're 23-12 vs spread in non-conference games this season. WAC clubs are 7-3 vs spread in this game the last ten seasons. Good game to pass.

Texas Bowl

Western Michigan lost 27-24 to Cincinnati in International Bowl couple years ago, their first bowl since '88, and fourth overall (0-3); Broncos are 9-3, upsetting Illinois 23-17 at Ford Field in November +7.5); in last two years, they've lost at West Virginia (62-24), Missouri (52-24), and 47-24 at Nebraska-- they upset Iowa 28-19 at end of last season. Sicne this is a road games basically, we see Western is 3-3 on road, and gave up 47-38- 45 points in their losses this season.

Rice's QB combo of Clement/Dillard has 50 TD passes, most in history of college football; they're both seniors, looking to go out the right way in front of home fans. Owls last won a bowl when they beat Alabama in Cotton Bowl, way back in 1955, beating Bart starr's Alabama team. Rice lost in New Orleans Bowl 41-17 to Troy two years ago, which was their first bowl since '61. Rice won its last six games (5-1 vs spread), scoring an average of 46.2 ppg. They try to outscore you.

Favorites won all seven Texas Bowls SU, going 4-1-2 vs spread- game is in Houston; teams from Texas are 4-1 in this bowl, 3-1-1 vs spread, with average total of 50.5 in last six. Neither side here has any experience with this bowl thing. Teams' profiles are similar; both sides have experienced QBs, haven't played in many bowls, are excited to be here. Raines is a senior LB for Rice who had a broekn arm, and career was supposed to be over, but he's come back and played last few games. Lean to Rice here.

Holiday Bowl

Oklahoma State was 7-0 before 28-24 loss at Texas; they finished 2-3 in last five games, also losing 56-20 at Texas Tech, 61-41 vs Oklahoma; in their last four games, Cowboys were outscored 99-54 in the second half. OSU won its last two bowls, 34-31/49-33; this figures to be like most of the Holiday Bowls have been; high scoring games that go down to wire. Big 12 teams are 14-10 as favorites this season, 7-3 on road. Missouri's lost last night was first Big 12 bowl game this season.

Oregon won three in row, five of last six games, running ball for average of 276 yards/game over their last six games. Despite having QB issues, starting four different guys for second year in a row; they scored 35-55 and 65 points in their last three games, last two of which were vs bowl teams (Arizona/Oregon State). Ducks crushed South Florida 56-21 LY in Sun Bowl, ending 4+-game losing streak in bowls- this is fourth year in a row in a bowl for Oregon, and sixth in last seven seasons.

Big 12 teams are 2-6 vs spread as favorites in Holiday Bowl, which has an average total of 63.3 the last eight years. Oregon lost to Oklahoma in this game three years ago, beat Texas five years before that. This is the first Holiday Bowl in 20 years for OSU. Can Cowboys slow down run game of Oregon? Can Ducks stop Cowboys' passing game? History of Holiday Bowl is for lots of scoring and close games. Oregon was +10 in turnovers the last five games, after being -5 in first four. Exciting game.