OC DOOLEY COMP
1 UNIT” MONDAY FOOTBALL TOTAL (Broncos at Chargers UNDER 47 in an 8:05 eastern kickoff on ESPN): I will admit that during their current 4-game winning streak, the San Diego offense has averaged 32 points per game, but also consider their DEFENSE has permitted just 17 points per pop in that span. One of the main reasons why Denver has just been knocked out of the playoff hunt for a second consecutive season surrounds the failures of their defense, which is currently ranked way down at #30 in the league. But note that the various defensive personell are going to be EVALUATED on an individual basis in the offseason, so a lot of jobs are at stake in these last two weeks. The lone Denver player who was elected to the Pro Bowl is defensive secondary star Champ Bailey. Also in the Denver secondary is accomplished 36-year old veteran John Lynch, who just happens to be the oldest safety in the entire NFL. It is not known if the final two games are going to be the last of what has been a glorious career, but I can tell you for a fact that Lynch grew up in the San Diego are, making this a “homecoming” for him. Denver’s defense also has some talented youngsters up front led by defensive end Elvis Dummerville who in the near future will also be playing in the Pro Bowl. I will also be keeping an eye on Tom Crowder and Marcus Thomas who have had there share of positive moments on defense. It comes as no shock that Broncos defensive coordinator (and guru) Bill Bates has struggled big time in his first year with the club, as the line play in particular has been a question mark dating all the way back to the preseason. The bottom line is that it has been extremely hard for Denver’s offense to get in synch this season, as they have been forced to watch too much action from the sidelines due to the aforementioned defensive failures. I have found out that Denver’s strategy tonight is to find a way to keep LaDanian Tomlinson and the Charger offense off-the-field for as long as possible, so that ailing defense which is now being evaluated closely, will finally show up and have a solid performance. You might want to call this the “due theory” lock as the Broncos have exceeded the posted total in all but THREE games so far. The big news is that last Thursday Denver was held to only 13 points and played UNDER the total, which finally snapped a 6-game run where they played above the spot each time. Tonight is the final shot for Denver’s defense to prove that they can contain the opposition on the road, where for the year they have surrendered a very high average of 29 points per game. Note that most Monday Night contests this season with relatively high posted totals such as this, have managed to stay UNDER the spot and I look for that trend to continue. It was just one week ago INDOORS at Minnesota where we had a game stay UNDER, despite perfect weather conditions. Tonight’s game is being played in a city that has the best year-round weather in America, but all that is going to do is inflate tonight’s spot. I already mentioned that Denver’s defensive personnel is going to undergo intense scrutiny in the final two games. I have found out that San Diego’s defense will get back the services of star lineman Shawn Merriman who suffered a knee injury two weeks ago. Merriman already has been credited with 11’ SACKS this campaign. There is also a possibility that the Chargers will get back defensive end Luis Castillo (ankle) who also was forced to watch from the sidelines a week ago. We have already had a pair of very high scoring games in primetime this week, including last night’s 32-21 shootout indoors at Minnesota. Back on Thursday the Steelers/Rams nearly made it above the total by HALFTIME. These factors are going to help further inflate tonight’s spot, so I am personally going to place my totals wager at the last possible minute.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MNF (10-2 run with NFL Insiders!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Chargers at 8:00 ET. Norv Turner came under heavy criticism when the Chargers opened 1-3 (averaging just 17 PPG), after going 14-2 LY with the league's highest scoring offense. However, SD has now won EIGHT of its last 10 (averaging 29.1 PPG), covering all eight of its SU wins. SD would love to edge Pitt for the No. 2 seed, thereby avoiding a "cold trip" to New England in the divisional round, in favor of a climate-controlled visit to Indy (SD ties Pitt at 11-4 with a win and owns the tie-breaker). The Broncos will surely be a motivated opponent tonight, having lost 41-3 to SD in Denver, back in Week 5. The loss was Denver's worst since 1988 and was the worst home loss for the franchise since 1966! While Denver will be motivated, I don't think it will matter. Jim Bates (DC) was bought in this year and his new schemes have been a disaster, as Denver ranks 29th vs the rush and 30th in points allowed! Offensively, the running game is not up to snuff (OL injuries haven't helped) plus Cutler has had trouble all season finishing off drives. Cutler is now 5-14 ATS in his 19 starts, which includes a 1-6 mark in seven road games TY. While he has 18 TDPs and a 90.8 QB rating on the season, he's has just six TDPs on the road (seven games!) and a road QB rating of 79.4. Since winning at Buffalo in Week 1 (15-14 non-cover), Denver is 1-5 SU and ATS on the road, winning only at KC (has now lost EIGHT straight!). In those five losses, the Denver D has allowed 36.8 PPG and this will be the team's SIXTH road game in its last eight . Meanwhile, SD is 6-1 SU and ATS at home, winning and covering its last FIVE ( 33.8-14.6). Las Vegas Insider on the SD Chargers.