Mike Anthony
Chicago vs. Arizona
Play: Chicago +3
Arizona is still dealing with lack of QB pressure from their LBs - Arizona is going to have a problem sticking with Chicago, and their running game. RB Benny Cunningham looked really good and was the backbone for the running game vs Denver - and this game has surprise all over it. the Chicago offense has obviously struggled with taking full control in the games - and have fallen apart at the wrong times. This will not be a game where they struggle with closing strong. Mitchell Trubisky looked really good at QB going 18-25 and a TD pass. The LBs of Arizona haven't hit the gaps good enough in this to make this a tough blocking matchup for the Bears. Chicago is very physical at the point of attack for the Cards to battle them with great effectiveness. Arizona corners have not played that great yet - and defending the pass has been sloppy. It puts them in the lower position to win games like this. Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall Chicago wins taking the points
Bruce Marshall
Los Angeles at Oakland
Pick: Oakland
Jack Del Rio's preseason marks not too great lately but Raid-uhs are likely to use Derek Carr into the 2nd Q this week, and if EJ Manuel gets into the game he can hardly do worse than last week. Still not seeing much with Rams, that was an awful game vs. Dallas, and the offense appears worse off at moment than at the same time last August when Case Keenum was at least around to take some snaps. Mannion did not recreate his preseason magic of last season in opener, receivers could not get separation, and runners could not break tackles. The only saving grace last week was that the no-Dak and-no Zeke Dallas was worse, with Kellen Moore's slow-motion delivery easy pickin' for the Wade Phillips defense. This Ram offense can charitably be called a work in progress, and not at all moved by Goff returning to Bay Area, as it looks a long way from hitting on enough cylinders for McVay. Expect a bounce-back from Raiders, who don't have to win by much to handle this number.
Jim Feist
Nationals at Padres
Pick: Under
Washington is 16-3-2 under the total against the National League West. This is a big park, great for pitchers, and the Nations are 9-4 under on the road. Stephen Strasburg makes his first start since July with 141 Ks in 121 innings. The Under is 7-3 in Strasburg's last 10 road starts. San Diego is the worst offensive team in the league, on a 7-2 run under the total at home. San Diego starter Travis Wood is off a strong game, allowing 2 runs to Philadelphia.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle -106 over TAMPA BAY
The Rays have one victory over their last eight games, which occurred against Marco Estrada and the Blue Jays. The Rays own MLB’s worst offense since the All-Star break in terms of team batting average, slugging % and runs scored. Over their last eight games, the Rays have scored three runs or less seven times and they lost the opener of this series last night, 7-1. They’ll now face lefty Ariel Miranda.
Miranda’s stock is low because he’s had it rough with a 6.55 ERA over seven starts since the beginning of July. He also has an 8.22 ERA over his last three starts, which is one of the key criteria’s that this market focuses on because “Last 3 Starts” is posted everywhere. That works to our advantage because Miranda’s skills were actually intriguing over that sample with 9.8 K’s/9, 2.1 BB’s/9 a 14% swing and miss rate and an elite 15% line-drive rate. Miranda has struck out 31 batters over his past 27 frames, which also bodes well here because the Rays have struck out more than any team in the AL and more than any team in the league not named Milwaukee. Miranda’s extremely unlucky 61% strand rate and 20% hr/f since the beginning of July is the only reason his ERA is so high. With an xERA over that span of 4.22, a big time ERA correction to the good is forthcoming and this is the perfect place for Miranda to start moving the needle in his direction.
Jake Odorizzi is another prime example of why we don’t buy surface stats and why they’re so misleading. Odorizzi brings his 4.30 ERA into this start but his skills are among the worst in MLB. Odorizzi has a weak BB/K split of 40/88 over 105 frames. His 30%/23%/47% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is repulsive. Over his last 10 innings over two starts since returning from the 10-day DL, Odorizzi has walked five batters and struck out six. In summarizing, Jake Odorizzi’s fly-ball % ticked up again. Jacks allowed remain persistent and damage inflicted by RHBs is on the upswing. This is a starter with an xERA of 6.18 that pitches half his games in a pitcher’s park. The Rays are favored here because the surface stats suggest they’re starting the superior pitcher but nothing could be further from the tooth. The Mariners have every edge here including power, offense, starter and current form and it’s not even close. Wrong side favored.
Chicago +189 over TEXAS
Derek Holland goes for the South Side here and there is a great chance that he’ll get his ass handed to him because he’s not very good. Holland hurled a decent game against Texas on July 1st but will have a harder time on the road this time around (6.11 away xERA). If Holland has a decent game here, we’ll be just as surprised as anyone but that’s not the issue here. We’ll live with whatever Holland comes up with because Martin Perez cannot be favored in this range against anyone because he’s just as bad as Holland and maybe worse.
Perez has crashed back to earth after a hit%/strand%-fueled mirage kept his head above water for a brief stretch. Other signs are ominous too, as he doesn't miss enough bats to reverse his K-rate slide. Perez has 18 K’s over his past 36 innings and his poor xERA has held steady all year. What Martin Perez is capable of is throwing lots and lots of bad innings. His 1.56 WHIP is weak and his year-to-date xERA of 6.50 is also weak. Pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Chris Sale are priced in this range and while we understand that Holland is weak and that the South Side struggle to win games, Martin Perez favored in this range is absurd. The White Sox are loaded with young and enthusiastic players that are playing their hearts out because of the opportunity to play in the big leagues. What the South Side lack in talent, they make up for in effort and enthusiasm while the Rangers are a veteran team playing for nothing. Chicago has split the first two games of this series with a 9-8 loss on Thursday and a 4-3 win yesterday. They continue to compete and therefore we’ll gladly gamble with this takeback today.
Milwaukee -1½ +225 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
19-35 + 11.65 units
Cincinnati +122 over ATLANTA
Robert Stephenson is a work in progress but things are getting progressively better. Stephenson is another high risk/reward pitcher because he has filthy stuff but he loses the plate from time to time. If he’s hitting the strike zone with his pitches, he’s a tremendous bet and that’s the risk here. Stephenson has walked 28 batters in 42 frames but has also whiffed 41 over that same span. In his last start, his first-pitch strike rate was 63%, which is great progress but a small sample. Stephenson’s 15% swing and miss rate reveals his upside but with an 0-3 record in three starts (he appeared in 14 games out of the pen) to go along with his 6.64 ERA, his stock is very low. Stephenson was tabbed a top prospect in 2015. Across his 10 final starts in the minors that season, he boasted a 2.36 ERA and had limited hitters to a .288 (!) slugging percentage, all while maintaining his torrid strikeout pace (10 K’s/9). Fast forward and Stephenson will need to prove he can consistently control and command his plus-combination of mid-90s heat and wicked curve but there is no question that he posseses the stuff to dominate. His 4.67 xERA is below average only because he walks too many but that mark is still two full runs lower than is actual ERA. If Stephenson is throwing strikes, this ticket will cash and if he’s not, it still might cash.
Julio Teheran has been walking a fine line between upper-tier starter and guy you want to avoid at all costs. The question now becomes how do we know which Teheran will show up today? Well, we don’t really know but there are some indications that tip us off. Teheran’s inconsistency has been driven nearly entirely by some massive struggles against left-handed batters. He has a 5.95 ERA, 6.44 xERA and a 1.72 WHIP against them. Cincinnati will possibly send six lefties (Barnhardt, Gennett, Votto, Hamilton, Schebler and Winker) to bat against Teheran with only Zack Cosart and Eugenio Suarez batting right. If Bryan Price (Reds Manager) decides to use Adam Duvall’s right-handed bat instead of Winker or Schebler’s left-handed bat, we can live with that too. All told, Teheran has been miserable against lefties and that’s enough to prompt us to step in.
Pass CFL
Larry Ness
Seattle vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -103
Nelson Cruz led the Mariners to a 7-1 win last night over the Rays in the opener of a three-game series. He extended his hitting steak to 11 games and launched the longest HR in Tropicana Field history with a 482-foot blast. The Mariners have now won three in a row to bring them within a half-game of the AL's final wild card spot (four teams are within a half-game of each other!). Meanwhile, the Rays continue to struggle, losing for the 11th time in 14 games to fall three games back with SIX teams ahead of them (the bigger problem!).
A couple of .500 pitchers square off on Saturday, Ariel Miranda (7-6, 4.75 ERA) of Seattle and Jake Odorizzi (6-6, 4.30 ERA) of Tampa Bay. Miranda is win-less in his last seven starts (he's 0-2 and Seattle 3-4) and has completed six innings just once in those seven outings. That's after accomplishing the feat eight of his first 17 starts in 2017. Miranda threw a complete-game four-hitter against Tampa Bay, striking out nine while walking only one back on June 4 (only previous start against the Rays. Odorizzi has lost both starts since returning from the DL, falling back to 6-6 on the season, although he allowed just a modest three ERs over 10 innings (2.70 ERA) in that span. He's 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA in five career starts vs Seattle (teams are 3-2).
Last night's contest was the first of a daunting 12-game road trek that Seattle is embarking on. I'm not sure Seattle has what it takes to make it through, 'alive.' We'll see. Today, I test my theory by playing on the struggling Rays. Stay tuned.
Will Rogers
Philadelphia vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -135
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants have suffered one of the franchise's worst seasons, as they currently find themselves 50-74, 38 games behind the hated Dodgers in the NL West (Oh, the humanity! The only team in the National League with a worse record than the Gaints is the Phillies, who after the Giants beat 10-2 last night, sit at 43-77. However, the Phillies are still not quite as bad as the Giants against MLB's moneyline, as at minus-$2536, they still are barely ahead of the Giants' MLB-worst mark of minus-$2785. The teams meet again on Saturday for the third contest of their four-game series.
The pitching matchup: Jerad Eickhoff (3-7 & 4.33 ERA) goes for Philly and Ty Blach (8-8 & 4.37 ERA) for San Fran. It would be true if I said that Eickhoff takes the mound looking to extend his unbeaten streak to 10 starts but it would also be true to point out that the Phillies are just 4-6 over those 10 starts. In fact, the Phils are 6-15 in Eickhoff's 2017 starts, giving him MLB's third-worst moneyline mark of minus-$1108. Eickhoff dropped his first career start against San Francisco back on June 2 after surrendering five runs on six hits and five walks over only 2 2/3 innings (13.48 ERA). Blach is coming off an 8-3 loss at Miami on Monday in which he was battered for six runs on nine hits and three walks over six innings. The setback ended a string of three straight strong outings by the rookie, who had given up a total of just six runs over 22 innings (1.37 ERA) while going 2-1 in that span. The contest in Philadelphia on June 2 also was Blach's first career start against the Phillies, which resulted in a 10-0 win as he scattered seven hits and struck out four in his first major-league shutout!
The pick: No way to ignore Eickhoff's 6-15 (minus-$1108) moneyline mark or Philly's 19-46 (minus-$1887) road record. Take the Giants.
ASA
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Play: Over 9
With yesterday's 11-10 win at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals are not only one of the hottest teams in the league, St Louis is on a 10-1 run to the over in their last 11 games! Though the Pirates are mired in a 6-game losing streak, they've scored 23 runs in their last 3 games and this should be another offensive display this afternoon. We like the fact that the Cards Michael Wacha has been much worse on the road (5.11 ERA) than at home this season. Also, the Bucs Chad Kuhl has struggled more at home (5.15 ERA) than at home. The Pirates have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in their past 5 home games while the Cardinals lineup has been hot everywhere! St Louis has scored an average of 8.1 runs per game in its last 12 games! The icing on the cake here is the fact that both bullpens have had major struggles in recent action as well.
TJ Pemberton
Arizona at Minnesota
Play: Arizona -140
Arizona lost to the Twins last night 10-3 but will feature Greinke on the hill tonight. Greinke is 14-5 on the season with 155.2 innings pitched. Greinke carries a 3.01 ERA with 174 strikeouts and 33 walks. Greinke pitched 6.2 innings in his last start allowing no earned runs on five hits. The Arizona Diamondbacks average 4.9 runs per game which ranks 7th in the MLB. The Diamondbacks look to hold their wildcard spot and will rely on Greinke to throw another quality game.
Jack Jones
White Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -1½
The Texas Rangers are still alive in the wild card race despite their struggles this season. They are only 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot. They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games and cannot afford another loss to the Chicago White Sox, who are 46-73 on the year.
The Rangers have scored 40 runs in their last five games for an average of 8.0 runs per game. That's why I'm not concerned about backing Martin Perez, who is just an average starter. His offense will have his back. And in Perez's only career home start against the White Sox, he pitched 9 shutout innings in a 12-0 Rangers' victory.
Texas' lineup should light up Derek Holland, who is 6-12 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 23 starts, 3-5 with a 7.07 ERA in 11 road starts, and 1-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts. Holland gave up 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-10 loss to the Rangers on July 1st in his only career start against them.
The White Sox are 3-14 in Holland's last 17 starts. Chicago is 0-7 in Holland's last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 14-38 in their last 52 road games. The Rangers are 9-1 in their last 10 Saturday games.
John Martin
Reds vs. Braves
Play: Over 10
The Cincinnati Reds are really swinging the bats right now. They have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 10 games coming into Saturday. But the problem with them all season has been pitching as they surrender 5.5 runs per game on the season, including 7.0 runs per game in their last seven. Both starters have been horrible this season. Julio Teheran is 7-10 with a 5.05 ERA in 24 starts, including 1-8 with a 7.08 ERA in 12 home starts. Robert Stephenson is 0-2 with a 5.28 ERA in three starts for Cincinnati. Teheran gave up 7 runs and 13 base runners in 5 innings of a 13-8 win at Cincinnati back on June 4th in his only start against them this season. The OVER is 11-2 in Reds last 13 games overall.
Chip Chirimbes
Marlins vs. Mets
Play: Mets -112
With the power surge of Giancarlo Stanton (44 homers) the Marlins have moved with two-games of .500 having won six of their past seven. New York meanwhile has sent five veteran players since July 27 to other clubs and have lost five straight and are 14-games under .500. Miami will start Vance Worley (2-2, 4.97ERA) who is 4-4 with a 5.59 ERA in 13 appearances against the Mets while New York will start Rafael Montero (1-8, 5.85) who is coming off a solid effort against the Yankees.
The Real Animal
49ers -2.5
Hmm. Certainly looks fishy for San Francisco to be favored over Denver tonight. But the Broncos are playing their second consecutive NFL road game and that was the same scenario for the Vikings last night. Plus the Broncos lost first downs 23-14 and total yards 363-281 last week in Chicago getting a few bounces their way (2-0 edge in turnovers) in the 24-17 win. Plus some houses anticipate the Bears only winning five games this year. I'm not convinced Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch are deserving of an NFL starting QB job. Plus last week Chicago quarterbacks attempted 37 passes and the Broncos did not record one sack. I thought the 49ers played very hard and spirited last week for first-year head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Fran had a 434-187 edge in total yards at Arrowhead, a disparity you rarely see at that stadium. I can tell you the 49ers are already vastly improved over anything Chip Kelly brought to the team. Denver was #4 in total defense last year. The 49ers were #32 and dead last. It sure does look like the line-maker is begging for Broncos' action here. Matt Barkley led all NFL quarterbacks in preseason passing yards last year with 630. He's out to do it again with 168 at Kansas City last week.
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles vs. Detroit
Play: Los Angeles -145
The Dodgers are on an historic run, winning 51 of their last 60 games and besides the fact we're backing the best team in baseball over the struggling Tigers, we also have starting pitchers headed in the opposite direction. Ryu has allowed just 11 earned runs and 49 base runners in his last seven starts, spanning 39 2/3 IP, for a 2.49 ERA & 1.23 WHIP. He doesn't always eat-up a lot of innings, but it's not needed with the Dodger relievers backing him up. Los Angeles will head into this one on 4-0 & 7-1 runs with Ryu on the mound. Detroit's Michael Fulmer has been struggling, allowing 19 earned runs and 36 base runners in his last 21 2/3 IP, and the Tigers lost all four starts. With the Dodgers averaging nearly 6 rpg in day games against righties, Fulmer is likely going to need a lot of support, but his team is averaging less than 4 rpg in home day games against southpaws. The Dodgers are on a 30-8 run when Ryu pitches on the road against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Tigers have dropped four straight against lefties and five in a row, overall.
Bob Balfe
Patriots +1.5
Normally if you are losing to the Jaguars you have a lot to worry about, but this is just the preseason and great teams don’t give away and of their packages or put their key players at risk any longer than needed. The Texans will have a solid defense once again this year and as always the question will be their offense. In tonight’s preseason game they have a few receivers nursing injury so I don’t expect them to move the ball on this deep and loaded Patriots Defense. The Patriots are a better team from top to bottom as they also have the better 2nd unit players.
49ers -2.5
Denver did not look great last week against Chicago. This was a team that got a couple big plays late in the game when the 4th stringers were in, but outside of their key starters this is a weak football team. There is no shame in that stats when you pay the top members on your defense millions of dollars and can’t afford great backup players. When the ball kicks off for the regular season this is going to be one of if not the best defenses in all of football. Since we are just talking about preseason I think the 49ers have a huge edge in the talent department once the 2nd quarter hits. This is a football team that is aggressive and does have quality backup players for situations like preseason football. Take the 49ers.
Wunderdog
Cincinnati @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -140
The Atlanta Braves had the worst spring record in each of the last two years. They also finished last in the NL East a year ago, and little was expected this season. They have certainly overachieved at 54-66 on the season, while the Reds have just not been very good at all. Cincinnati has some big bats, but the pitching has been ridiculously poor, allowing 5.52 runs per contest. Julio Teheran gives the Braves he edge in his one as he is 4-2 lifetime vs. the Reds, and as a team, he Reds have averaged just 3.17 runs per game against Teheran and the pen (just 2.75 runs a game at home). It will be tough for the Reds to win when they don't score much, and Teheran has proven worthy.