Free Picks for Friday, September 8th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Jim Feist
Detroit at Toronto
Play: Over 9
This is a good park to hit in and Detroit is in town with not much pitching. Buck Farmer gets the start with a dreadful ERA (7.18), off a 10-0 loss to Cleveland, 10-3-1 over when he starts. Detroit is 28-13-2 over the total following an off day. Toronto is 8-3-1 over the total when Marcus Stroman faces a team with a losing record.
DAVE COKIN
ORIOLES AT INDIANS
PLAY: INDIANS -154
Wade Miley has been sharp of late for Baltimore. But this Indians team is on an incredible roll, and the Tribe has been battering lefties with some almost unbelievable numbers of late. Mike Clevinger still has the occasional start where he loses the strike zone and gets himself in a mess. But those outings are decreasing in frequency and he’s more go with than go against at this point. No bargains to be had on the Indians with the team as hot as it is. But with a bit of a scheduling advantage and the winning streak still intact, I’ve got to side with the Indians here.
Scott Rickenbach
Cincinnati at New York
Play: New York -1½
Going for the big payback here. The reason being that the Mets are 15-2 in their 17 games versus the Reds the past 3 seasons combined. With their 7-2 win yesterday, New York has seen 8 of their last 9 wins come by 2 runs or more. The Reds have seen 34 of their last 38 losses come by 2 runs or more. In other words, when Cincinnati loses they lose big and, odds are, the Mets win this. After all, the 15-2 run in their last 17 meetings with the Reds is certainly noteworthy. Even though Seth Lugo has struggled lately those starts were on the road. At home the Mets right-hander has a 3.50 ERA this season. The Reds will have Amir Garrett getting the start in this one. Cincinnati has lost EACH of Garrett's last 6 starts and he has a 7.40 ERA on the season. I know he pitched well in his most recent start (at the AAA level) but this is not the minors! Look for his struggles to resume and I am taking a "flyer" on the very generous payback offered on the Mets run line in this one.
Ray Monohan
Ohio vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -3
The Boilermakers lay just a field goal at home against a MAC opponent on Friday, which is a valuable play here.
Purdue gave Louisville all they could handle as huge underdogs in Week 1 at home. They not only showed their defense can really put up a fight, but also their offense is vastly improved.
The Boilermakers were able to sustain drives and really keep the momentum going for nearly 3 quarters. That'll be a huge key here as they should be able to overpower this Ohio defensive line. Look for them to get a push up front and really create holes for their backs.
Some trends to note. Boilermakers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Boilermakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.
This number is just too small here.
John Martin
Yankees vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers +141
The Texas Rangers have a big series here against the New York Yankees. They are 2.5 games out in the wild card and the Yankees are one of the teams they are chasing. This big underdog price is a great one here given their motivation. Martin Perez is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and feeling good about things coming into this game. Masahiro Tanaka is 4-5 with a 5.62 ERA in 13 road starts this season. Tanaka has never beaten the Rangers, going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three previous starts against them. The Rangers are 6-0 in Perez's last six starts. Texas is 9-1 in its last 10 games following an off day.
Larry Ness
Angels vs. Mariners
Pick: Mariners -120
Seattle has lost eight of 11 to fall back to four games out in the AL wild-card chase for the No. 2 spot. 73-67 Minnesota currently owns that spot and a big problem for 69-71 Seattle is that there are FIVE teams between them and the Twins, including tonight's opponent. the 72-68 LA Angels. Los Angeles visits Seattle just one game behind Minnesota, after splitting the first six contests of its current nine-game road trip.
Ricky Nolasco (6-12, 5.08 ERA) will get the ball for LA and the recently acquired Mike Leake (8-12, 4.14 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle. Nolasco owns an 'ugly 6-12 record but he's unbeaten over his last seven starts. Then again, it's not as if he's been "lights out," as he's 2-0 (team is 5-2) but his ERA is 5.11 in that stretch. He will be making his fifth start of the season against the Mariners after posting a 1-0 mark and 4.07 ERA in the first four (he's 2-4 with a 4.36 ERA in nine career starts vs the Mariners / teams are 4-5).
Mike Leake provided a huge boost to an injury-depleted pitching staff in his debut with Seattle, limiting Oakland to two runs over seven innings while striking out season high-tying seven in a 3-2 win last Friday. Leake was outstanding early on in 2017 for the Cardinals, as he had a 1.91 ERA through his first nine starts. However, he was ripped for 23 runs on 34 hits in his last four starts with St Louis and at the time of the trade, was 7-12 with 4.21 ERA. Leake has just one career start against the Angels (1-0, 1.13 ERA).
As noted, Nolasco is unbeaten in his last seven (Angels are 5-2) but overall, the Angels are 10-18 in all of his 2017 starts, giving him a minus-$715 moneyline mark (11th-worst among all starters). Time is running out for Seattle, Taking this series against the Angels is almost a must. A sweep would be nice but I'll settle for a win tonight. Take the Mariners.
BRANDON LEE
Twins vs. Royals
Play: Twins -109
Minnesota is worth a look here as a short road favorite against division rival Kansas City. The Wins are playing the much better baseball of the two teams and have the big edge on the mound here with Ervin Santana facing off against Ian Kennedy. Santana has been a road warrior with an 8-2 record and 2.48 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 13 road starts. Kennedy on the other hand is 0-7 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 13 home starts. Kennedy also comes in with an ugly 8.30 ERA and 1.845 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Look for Minnesota's offense to get going early and cruise to an easy win here.
JOHN MARTIN
Yankees vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers +141
The Texas Rangers have a big series here against the New York Yankees. They are 2.5 games out in the wild card and the Yankees are one of the teams they are chasing. This big underdog price is a great one here given their motivation. Martin Perez is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and feeling good about things coming into this game. Masahiro Tanaka is 4-5 with a 5.62 ERA in 13 road starts this season. Tanaka has never beaten the Rangers, going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three previous starts against them. The Rangers are 6-0 in Perez's last six starts. Texas is 9-1 in its last 10 games following an off day.
DAVE PRICE
Astros vs. Athletics
Play: Astros -158
Two teams headed in opposite directions square off in this series. The Houston Astros are healthy and back rolling, going 7-0 in their last 7 games overall. The Oakland A's are just ready for their season to be over, going 1-8 in their last 9 games. Collin McHugh is 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 8 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 0.54 ERA in his last 3 starts. Jharel Cotton is 3-6 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 11 home starts this year. McHugh is 7-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against Oakland. The Astros have gone 9-1 in those 10 games.
Joey Juice
The Boilermakers will face the Ohio Bobcats for the 1st time since 1988.
Ohio beat the crap out of a high school team in week 1 (59-0), while Purdue almost pulls off the upset in the loss to Louisville 35-28.
I mean, this Boilermaker team gave the 16th ranked team in the country a HUGE SCARE. Now they face a Bobcat offense with an unproven quarterback who lost all his top receivers from last year, and a Bobcat defense that can not stop the Pass.
I look for Purdue to get it done in the air and get the "W" and the Money.
2* PURDUE
Rob Vinciletti
Baltimore at Cleveland
Play: Over 9
Cleveland is on fire and is averaging nearly 7 runs per game the past week. The Orioles are scoring over 5 runs the past week. They have Miley making the start and he has a 5.19 road era and a 5+ era vs Cleveland. Clevinger for Cleveland may have a nice ring to it but he has a 6+ Era vs Baltimore and a pedestrian like 4.22 home Era. To tie in a database system we note that home teams like Cleveland that were road favorites at -200 or more last night are perfect to the over since 2004 vs an opponent that scored 2 or less runs in a home loss.. based on the number we will play this game over the total.
Stephen Nover
Angels / Mariners Over 9.5
Ricky Nolasco is Ricky Nolasco. He's epitomizes a journeyman who eats innings. Nolasco is 6-12 with a 5.08 ERA this season. Mike Leake is set to make his second start for Seattle. His first came against the A's last week and was very good. I don't believe his second is going to go so well. Leake was being pounded during his last four starts with the Cardinals - 23 runs and 34 hits - before coming to the Mariners. Leake has said he has a tired arm.
Eric Schroeder
Would you believe me if I told you after three decades of finally having lights at Wrigley Field, there has yet to be one night game on a Friday night?
Tonight is the first time.
And while the Milwaukee Brewers are hoping to make up some ground on the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central, I think this is a good spot for the defending World Series champs to make their own statement and pull away from the pack.
While the Brewers and Cubs still have seven head-to-head games to play, Chicago leads the division and is in front of third-place Milwaukee by five games.
All Chicago tonight.
1* CUBS
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Washington Nationals to blast the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, and I'm playing this one on the run line. The Nats owe me, big time, after failing to win on the Run Line last night. They have won four straight and eight of 11, after sweeping a series in Miami, including Wednesday's 8-1 win over the Marlins, and then taking last night's series opener, 4-3.
The cellar-dwelling Phillies are 25-50 on the road this season. They're long gone from the playoff picture, and currently have the worst record in baseball.
This series won't be nice to Philadelphia, as the Nationals continue their longest homestand of the season, and will do so with a blowout win tonight.
Washington is a season-high 32 games above .500, and have a good chance to increase that number, as it also hosts the dismal Atlanta Braves and struggling Los Angeles Dodgers while playing 9 more games in the next 10 days.
The magic number for the Nationals is five to clinch the National League East.
Take Washington big tonight.
4* NATIONALS -1.5