College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 10

NCAAF Week 7

Louisville is 5-0 against a collection of stiffs, with only win by less than 23 points a 27-13 win (-14) over in-state rival Kentucky. Cardinals won last three games with Rutgers by 27-2-3 points. Scarlet Knight lost three of last four visits here, with favorites covering all four games- both their road games this year went OT (lost 52-51 at Fresno, won 55-52 at SMU five days ago). SMU was 45-71/484 passing vs Rutgers, and Louisville has a more diverse offense. Knights are 6-2 in last eight tries as road dog.

Short week for Air Force after flying cross-country and losing its rivalry game 28-10 at Navy; Falcons lost last three games to San Diego State by 19-14-2 points, in series where underdog is 10-5 vs spread in last fifteen meetings. Aztecs had extra day to prep after OT win vs Nevada Friday night; since 2004, they're 3-9-1 as a road favorite. Air Force has a very young team and is playing a backup QB; they're 0-2 as a home dog this year, losing 52-20 (+9.5) to Utah State and 566-23 (+4.5) to Wyoming.

Ed Orgeron makes his debut as USC's interim coach vs Arizona that has split last four meetings with Trojans; last six meetings were decided by 7 or less points in series where underdogs covered last eight meetings. USC lost last game 62-41 and Kiffin got fired, so team with very young QBs is shorthanded as far as offensive coaches. Arizona is 6-9-1 in its last 16 tries as a road underdog, losing 31-13 (+9) at Washington in only such game this year. Trojans are 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite, 1-2 this year, losing at home to Washington State , beating Utah State by 3.

Armadillosports.com

Thursday Night College Football: Rutgers vs. Louisville
By Joe Nelson
Nellysports.com

One of the bigger games in the American Athletic Conference season is featured this Thursday on ESPN as Rutgers visits Louisville. This matchup closed the regular season last year with a BCS spot on the line this game will spell the end of what has been an entertaining recent rivalry with both teams moving on to bigger conferences next season. Here is a look at the Thursday night game to start off the new weekend in college football.

Match-up: Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Louisville Cardinals
Venue: Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky (fieldturf)
Date: Thursday, October 10, 2013
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Louisville -18, Over/Under 54½
Last Meeting: 2012 at Rutgers, Louisville (+3) 20-17

While this is not a long standing rivalry steeped in great tradition it may be one of the few matchups that will be missed from the Big East/AAC days as Rutgers heads to the Big Ten and Louisville to the ACC next season. There have been several notable games in this series including the 2006 Thursday night matchup with both teams 8-0 as #15 Rutgers upset #3 Louisville 28-25 in a classic game. Rutgers trailed 25-7 in that game but held Louisville scoreless in the second half. Led by Ray Rice and Kenny Britt the offense went from its own 9-yard line in the final minutes to set-up the game winning kick.

The 2007 meeting was also a great game with Louisville winning 41-38 though neither team had as much at stake. The last two years this series has also gone down to the wire with Louisville winning 16-14 in 2011 and with Teddy Bridgewater delivering a heroic comeback win last season despite playing with a broken wrist. Last year’s game was the regular season finale and the Louisville win created a four-way tie in the Big East at 5-2, a tiebreaker Louisville won to go to the Sugar Bowl.

Bridgewater has been the story this season as a Heisman candidate and a potential top NFL draft pick. He has completed nearly 72 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and only one interception to lead one of the top passing offenses in the country. The running game has been solid but complimentary this season with three running backs sharing the bulk of the carries in the 5-0 start for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are the #1 team in the nation in fewest points allowed with less than seven points per game surrendered but every conversation regarding Louisville must start by acknowledging the extremely weak schedule.

The Cardinals are #8 in both polls this week, actually falling from #7 despite a 30-7 road victory last week at Temple. That will be a continuing problem as the team will likely plateau in the rankings as they will have a hard time moving past the elite teams in power conferences and one or even two loss teams could begin to pass them. One loss Georgia is already ahead of Louisville in the polls and the hopes of earning a shot at the national title are extremely remote even if the Cardinals finish 12-0. Louisville is still the heavy favorite to win the AAC and earn the automatic BCS bid however and last year they made the most of that opportunity with a 33-23 win over then #4 Florida in the Sugar Bowl.

The toughest stretch of the schedule is this week and next week for Louisville, hosting Rutgers in primetime with a chance to show off to voters on national television against the most credible opponent they have faced this season. Next Friday’s game with Central Florida may be the biggest of the season and the game most feel will decide the conference champion. Louisville gets both games at home but in three plus seasons under Charlie Strong eight of the 14 losses have come at home with five S/U losses as a favorite.

With Greg Schiano taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coaching job after the 2011 season and a run of several successful seasons for Rutgers, expectations were certainly grounded for the continued success of the program. Kyle Flood was promoted to head coach from assistant head coach and he has been with the program since 2007. His first season was a success with Rutgers going 9-4 and they would have won the Big East title last season had they held off Louisville in the final game of the season. Rutgers had a notable win at Arkansas last season and finished up the season with a narrow loss to Virginia Tech in overtime at the Russell Athletic Bowl.

This year Rutgers is off to a 4-1 start, surprising many by nearly beating Fresno State on the road to open the season and then also beating Arkansas for the second straight season. Rutgers survived a wild finish last week to win at SMU as this will be a second straight road game for the Knights with substantial travel and the previous two road games for the team both went to overtime. The program has mainly been known for defense in recent years, particularly with stopping the run as they allowed just 97 rushing yards per game and just over 14 points per game last season. Those figures have deteriorated this season allowing 438 yards per game and almost 28 points per game but Rutgers is allowing just 5.0 yards per play. This year not many teams are scoring more however as Rutgers has averaged 40 points per game.

Rutgers junior quarterback Gary Nova is not in Bridgewater’s class but he has had a solid career though he has battled injuries. He has not been overly accurate with just over 58 percent completions this season but he has 13 touchdown passes already this season and has delivered some big late game moments, notably a fourth quarter comeback in the Arkansas game this season. Rutgers has had a tough break with running back Paul James going down with injury as he rushed for 573 yards in the first four games. He missed last week’s game and will be out until after next week’s bye week. Sophomore Leonte Carroo has been a pleasant surprise to lead the receiving corps with half of his catches going for touchdowns.

As this line suggests Louisville is expected to win convincingly to take command of the AAC race and this will be a big game for the Cardinals to prove that they deserve to be in the conversation among the top teams in the nation. Rutgers certainly looks on track for a third straight bowl trip and what would be an eighth bowl season in the last nine years for a program that greatly struggled in previous decades. This would be a season-making opportunity for the Knights and this series has certainly provided many memorable moments in recent years.

Last Meeting: These teams met in the final game of the regular season last year with a BCS spot on the line as Rutgers was 5-1 in Big East play and Louisville was 4-2. A Louisville win would force a tiebreaker scenario that the Cardinals appeared to have the edge in. Rutgers was a slight home favorite as Louisville’s star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was banged up with a broken wrist and an injured ankle and not expected to play. Bridgewater did not start and Rutgers started off the scoring with an 85-yard pass play. By halftime it was 14-3 with Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova connecting on another long pass play. Bridgewater came into the game and helped the Cardinals score twice in the span of 16 seconds of game clock late in the third quarter after a Rutgers fumble on the kickoff. Rutgers would tie the game in the fourth quarter but Nova would throw an interception in Rutgers territory to set up the Cardinals in great position with less than five minutes to go. The Cardinals were able to hit on a short field goal to take the lead with less than two minutes left and the defense held as the Cardinals wound up in the Sugar Bowl, where they would upset Florida.

Series History: These teams have played each of the last eight years and 10 times since 1984 with a 5-5 split and Louisville holding a slim 5-4-1 ATS edge. The series will end with both teams off to new conferences and Louisville has won and covered in each of the last three meetings. This will be the biggest spread in the series since 2005 and Rutgers is just 1-3 ATS when playing as the underdog.

Line Movement: The line opened at 16½ and has climbed, reaching 18½ at some outlets. The total has been slow to release but is projecting to be around 54 or 54½.

Rutgers Historical Trends: The Knights have played well on the road going 16-10-1 ATS since 2008 and 31-21-2 ATS since 2003. Since 2003 Rutgers is 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points as well. Only once since 2005 has Rutgers been an underdog this high, losing 35-14 at West Virginia to close the regular season in 2010 as 21-point underdog.

Louisville Historical Trends: The Cardinals are just 6-14 ATS in the last 20 games as a double-digit favorite and just 11-18 ATS as a home favorite since 2007. Louisville went on a 15-2 ATS run as a home favorite from 2004 to 2006 under Bobby Petrino as the longer range trends look more favorable but the Cardinals are just 9-14 ATS in home games under Charlie Strong, actually going just 15-8 S/U despite being favored in all but three of those games.

There are two additional Thursday night games this week:

San Diego State (-4) at Air Force: The Falcons may have their worst team in many years, sitting at 1-5 while posting lopsided losses in each of the last two home contests. San Diego State won by 19 at home in this matchup last season but it was a deceptive final as Air Force had a substantial yardage edge. This year only four FBS teams have allowed more yards per game than Air Force however. The Aztecs have won two in a row to recover from a 0-3 start to the season including last week beating a Nevada team that beat Air Force two weeks back. After facing the two worst rush defenses in the nation the last two games, this is another favorable matchup for the San Diego State offense. The trends show that Air Force is just 5-16 ATS at home since 2010 but San Diego State is just 3-9-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2004.San Diego State has covered in seven of the last 10 meetings in this series but they have lost S/U in three of the last four trips to Colorado Springs.

Arizona (+5½) at USC: There are certainly some unknowns for this game as USC has an opportunity to respond in its first game after the firing of Lane Kiffin. Arizona was a suspect 3-0 team with great rushing numbers before struggling in the Pac-12 opener at Washington two weeks ago. Washington certainly impressed last week so perhaps more credit should be given to the Wildcats for the respectable loss. Arizona beat USC last season at home in a wild 39-36 game that featured 1,200 total yards and the Wildcats are rushing for 5.2 yards per carry this season with some of the best rushing production numbers in the nation. The USC defense has looked excellent this season with the exception of the Arizona State game but with Notre Dame up next this is likely a bigger game on the schedule for the Wildcats who have had historical success in this series over the last two decades, typically in the underdog role. Arizona has covered in 10 of the last 14 meetings going back to 1996 but USC is actually 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as a home favorite despite the shaky results the last two seasons.

Rutgers at Louisville: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-19, 54)

Close victories over Rutgers in each of the last two seasons allowed Louisville to earn a share of the Big East title. As members of the American Athletic Conference, little is expected to change Thursday when the eighth-ranked Cardinals host the Scarlet Knights in the first and perhaps the only game between the schools as rivals in the newly formed league. While Rutgers is set to become a member of the Big Ten in 2014, Louisville will leave for the ACC.

A two-point win in 2011 over the Scarlet Knights sparked a 5-1 finish for the Cardinals and helped them secure a three-way tie for the conference title, while a three-point victory in 2012 forged a four-way tie and led to a Sugar Bowl triumph. Louisville is 5-0 for the second time in as many seasons in 2013 and has outscored its opponents 222-34. Rutgers has won four straight, but may find it difficult to recover on short rest after Saturday’s 55-52 triple-overtime win at Southern Methodist.

LINE: Louisville opened at -16.5 and has been bet up as high as -19. The total opened at 55 and has come down to 54.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s with clear skies and winds blowing NE at 2 mph.

ABOUT RUTGERS (4-1, 1-0 AAC, 2-3 ATS): The Scarlet Knights have scored 28 points or more in each of the first five games for the first time in school history. One of the major reasons for the offensive output has been the play of quarterback Gary Nova, who ranks second in the conference with 13 touchdown passes and has thrown only four interceptions. Two of Nova’s 16 interceptions last season came in a 20-17 loss to Louisville, including one near midfield late in the fourth quarter as Rutgers was driving for a potential game-tying field goal.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (5-0, 1-0, 3-2 ATS): While quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has looked every bit like the top NFL Draft pick he is expected to become (AAC-leading 16 touchdowns and 71.7 percent completion percentage), the Cardinals’ defense has been nearly as impressive. Louisville is allowing a Division I-best 6.8 points per game and has collected nine turnovers, which has helped lead to the nation’s sixth-best turnover margin (plus-1.4). Louisville coach Charlie Strong said wide receiver DeVante Parker is day-to-day after he injured his right shoulder in Saturday’s 30-7 victory at Temple.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Scarlet Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Bridgewater has thrown a touchdown pass in 17 consecutive games, tied with Dave Ragone for the most in school history.

2. Rutgers ranks 22nd in the country in scoring offense (40 points per game) after finishing 98th a season ago.

3. The Cardinals have outscored their opponents 127-3 in the first half.

Arizona at USC: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans (-6, 47.5)

The Lane Kiffin era has ended and it will be interim coach Ed Orgeron running the team when USC hosts Arizona in Thursday’s crucial Pac-12 contest. Athletic director Pat Haden fired Kiffin after the Trojans suffered a 62-41 loss to Arizona State on Sept. 28 and Orgeron is looking to overcome a 0-2 start in conference play. Arizona is coming off a loss to Washington and needs a victory over USC to remain a factor in the Pac-12 South race.

Orgeron went 10-25 as head coach of Mississippi from 2005-07 and has made it a major priority to change the mood of the team. “I want our guys to believe and have a little fun,” Orgeron said. “One of the things we can do as a staff is get really close to our players, circle the wagons, have fun, and let the chips fall where they may.” Trojans receiver Marqise Lee (knee) could miss the game, which won’t sadden Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez too much due to Lee catching 16 passes for a Pac-12 record 345 yards against the Wildcats last season. “We didn’t have any answer for him last year,” Rodriguez said. “He got open, got involved, and we just couldn’t catch up with him.”

LINE: Southern Cal opened as a 5-point favorite and moved to -6. The total opened at 48.5 and was bet down to 47.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 60s with clear skies and winds blowing west at 5 mph.

ABOUT ARIZONA (3-1, 0-1 Pac-12 South, 2-2 ATS): Junior running back Ka’Deem Carey is looking for his eighth consecutive 100-yard outing and has scored at least one touchdown in 17 of his last 18 games. Senior quarterback B.J. Denker is only a 50 percent passer and tossed his first two interceptions of the campaign in the loss to Washington but excels as a rusher (280 yards, team-high six touchdowns). An opportunistic defense has intercepted seven passes with junior safety Tra’Mayne Bondurant recording three – returning two for touchdowns – while freshman outside linebacker Scooby Wright has recorded a team-leading 28 tackles.

ABOUT USC (3-2, 0-2 Pac-12 South, 1-4 ATS): Lee has modest season totals of 30 receptions for 385 yards and was termed questionable by Orgeron on Monday, as was senior outside linebacker Morgan Breslin (hip), who has a team-best 7.5 tackles for loss. Senior running back Silas Redd (knee) could see action for the first time but sophomore Tre Madden (583 yards) has a firm grip on the starting job after topping 100 yards in four of five games. The 62 points allowed against Arizona State matched for worst in school history and was a shocking development considering the presence of stars like Breslin, junior safety Dion Bailey (team-high 28 tackles, two interceptions), junior defensive end George Uko (four sacks) and sophomore defensive end Leonard Williams (seven tackles for loss).

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Southern California.
* Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. USC leads the series 28-8, but Arizona posted a 39-36 home win in last season’s meeting.

2. The Wildcats are allowing 14.3 points per game, ninth-best nationally.

3. Trojans sophomore QB Cody Kessler is completing 63.5 percent of his passes with six touchdowns against four interceptions.