Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 12/8/18
Saturday’s games
Michigan State won seven of last eight games since losing its opener to Kansas; Spartans won their first two Big 14 games, winning its only true road game by 11 at Rutgers. MSU is experience team #112 that has played schedule #20- they’re shooting 40.5% on arc. Florida is 5-3 vs schedule #29 after beating West Va in NYC Tuesday; Gators are forcing turnovers 24.6% of time. Big 14 favorites are 15-8 away from home, 2-3 in true road games; SEC underdogs are 11-12, 2-0 at home. Last four years, SEC teams are 13-10-1 vs spread when playing Big 14 squads.
Kentucky won last seven games vs mostly stiffs since losing opener by 34 to Duke; Wildcats are experience team #351 that has played schedule #317 so far- they’re turning ball over 21% of time, while starting three freshmen, one soph. Seton Hall is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 23-2-5 points, with an 83-81 win over Miami. Pirates are experience team #234- they’re making 29.7% on arc. SEC faves are 12-9 away from home, 2-1 in true road games; Big East underdogs are 7-8, 1-3 at home. Last four years, Big East teams are 18-13 vs spread when playing SEC foes.
Georgetown/Syracuse split last four meetings, with last two Orange wins both in OT. Hoyas won three of their last four visits here. Georgetown is 7-1 vs schedule #305; their only loss was to LMU in Jamaica. Hoyas are experience team #253- their best win is over #94 Liberty. Syracuse is 6-2 vs schedule #163; they’re experience team #246 whose best win is at #20 Ohio State- they lost to UConn/Oregon. Orangemen play tempo #308, are forcing turnovers 22.6% of time. ACC home favorites are 23-19 vs spread; Big East underdogs are 7-8, 2-3 on road.
Xavier won four of its last five games with rival Cincinnati- they beat Bearcats 89-76 at home LY. Musketeers are 6-3 vs schedule #149 in Steele’s first year as coach- they’re shooting 58.7% inside arc. This is Xavier’s first true road game. Cincinnati won its last eight games since losing opener at home to Ohio State, but only one of 8 team they beat (#64 Ole Miss) is top 100 team. Bearcats force turnover 24.1% of time while playing a bottom-10 tempo. AAC home favorites are 14-11 vs spread; Big East underdogs are 7-8, 2-3 on road, though this is an inner-city rivalry.
Villanova beat crosstown rival St Joe’s the last six years, hammering the Hawks by 31-41 points the last two years. Wildcats lost four starters from LY’s nat’l champs; they’re 7-2 vs schedule #142, with best wins over Florida St/Temple. Villanova is playing 5th-slowest tempo in country. St Joe’s lost four of last six games but won by 10 at Princeton Wednesday; Hawks are #300 experience team that is turning ball over less than any team in country. Big East home favorites are 7-19 vs spread; A-14 underdogs are 15-22 away from home, 8-7 in true road games.
Louisville beat Indiana last two years by 9-15 points; Cardinals are 6-2 this year vs schedule #85- they’re getting to foul line more than anyone in country. Louisville won its only true road game by 5 at Seton Hall. Indiana just won two Big 14 conference games by a basket each; Hoosiers are #297 experience team that is forcing turnovers 22.2% of time- they’re shooting 58.3% inside arc. Big 14 home favorites are 17-14 vs spread; ACC underdogs are 10-5, 6-2 in true road games. Big 14 teams are 22-14 vs spread in their last 36 games vs ACC teams.
Wichita State is 4-3 vs schedule #112; they’re experience team #278 (#345 in MC) that is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, with wins over Providence/Baylor- this is their first road game. Oklahoma is 7-1 vs schedule #22 whose only loss was to Wisconsin on a neutral floor. Sooners are experience team #25- they beat Notre Dame by 5 in NYC Tuesday night. Big X home favorites are 13-10 vs spread; AAC underdogs are 12-9 away from home, 6-8 in true road games. Last four years, AAC teams are 16-12 vs spread when facing Big X opponents.
UAB snapped a 12-game losing skid to Memphis LY, beating Tigers 71-56 at home. Blazers lost their last nine visits here. Memphis is 4-4 vs schedule #60; they’re experience team #136 that starts two frosh, three seniors. Tigers are turning ball over 21.1% of time. UAB is 6-2 vs #333 schedule; Blazers are shooting only 23.7% on arc (#350). UAB’s best win this season was over #184 Mercer- they lost to #16 Florida St, #117Charleston. AAC home favorites are 14-11 vs spread; C-USA road underdogs are 10-16. UAB/Memphis often recruit against each other.
Road team won last four Wisconsin-Marquette games; Badgers won their last two visits here, by 11-9 points. Wisconsin is 8-1 vs schedule #16, winning first two Big 14 conference games by 6-5 points; Badgers are making 41.6% on arc (#12)- they start three sophs, two seniors (#300 experience, #20 MC). Marquette won its last four games, is 7-2 vs schedule #174; Eagles lost to Indiana/Kansas- they’re 7-0 when allowing less than 77 points. Marquette is turning ball over 21.1% of time Big East home teams are 8-20 vs spread; Big 14 road teams are 9-5.
Creighton won its last seven games with Nebraska, winning its last three visits to Lincoln, by 22-10-15 points. Bluejays are 6-2 vs schedule #30- they lost last game by 11 to Gonzaga at home week ago. Creighton starts three sophs, two juniors. Nebraska is 7-2 after losing conference tilt by 7 at Minnesota Wednesday; Huskers are #61 experience team that has played schedule #142. Nebraska is 2-2 vs top 100 teams with wins over Seton Hall/Clemson; their eFG% defense is #4 in nation. Big 14 home favorites are 17-14 vs spread; Big East underdogs are 7-8, 2-3 on road.
UCLA is 6-2 vs schedule #237, losing by 20-16 points in their only top 100 games; natives aren’t real happy these days. Bruins are experience team #350 that is playing tempo #47- they start two frosh, two sophs. Notre Dame is 6-2 vs schedule #263; Irish are experience team #289 that lost last game by 5 to Oklahoma in NYC Tuesday. Lot of travel in one week for a college team. Pac-12 favorites are 17-14 vs spread; ACC underdogs are 10-5, 6-2 in true road games. Last four years, ACC teams are 13-6 vs spread when playing Pac-12 opponents.
Utah won three of its last four games with BYU, which lost its last two visits to Salt Lake City, 81-64/83-75. BYU lost three of last four games, is 6-4 vs schedule #272- they’re 2-4 vs teams ranked in top 200. Cougars are 0-3 this season away from Provo. Utah is 4-3 vs schedule #232; they’re experience team #258 that subs a lot (bench minutes #51). Utes are 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing at Minnesota by 9, by 22 to Northwestern on neutral floor. WCC favorites are 10-7 away from home, 4-4 on neutral floors; Pac-12 dogs are 5-17 vs spread, 2-10 on neutral floors.
Mississippi State is 7-1 vs schedule #290; they’re 2-1 vs top 100 teams, losing to Arizona State by 5, beating St Mary’s/Dayton. Bulldogs are forcing turnovers 21.1% of time- they start two sophs, two seniors. Clemson is 6-2 vs schedule #239, losing to Creighton/Nebraska by total of 7 points. Tigers are experience team #35 that struggled to beat #242 St Peter’s by 5 at home in last game Tuesday. SEC favorites are 12-9 away from home, 2-1 in true road games; ACC underdogs are 10-5, 2-0 at home. ACC teams are 16-12 vs spread in their last 28 games vs SEC opponents.
Saturday's Tip Sheet
December 7, 2018
By David Schwab
A trio of nationally ranked Big Ten teams coming off an early week of conference play highlight this Saturday’s late-afternoon college basketball betting board, including a pair of matchups pitted against teams from the Big East.
Maryland gets things started at home against the Missouri Valley’s Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. The Wisconsin Badgers will go on the road to face Marquette in an in-state battle in Milwaukee and Nebraska will play host to Creighton to round-out this Big Ten trifecta.
Opening Odds per BetOnline.ag
Loyola-Chicago Ramblers at No. 23 Maryland Terrapins (Big Ten Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Maryland -9 ½, Total 141 ½
Betting Matchup
The Ramblers have just one win in their last four games both straight-up and against the spread after falling to Ball State 75-69 on Wednesday night as five-point home favorites. They are 5-4 SU overall with a 3-6 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games. Loyola-Chicago is averaging 71.6 points per game with senior guard Marques Towns (14.8 PPG) leading the way.
Maryland wrapped up its brief two-game stint in early Big Ten play with Saturday’s 66-59 victory against Penn State as a 6 ½-point favorite and Thursday’s tight 62-60 road loss to Purdue as a 8 ½-point underdog. The Terrapins are 7-2 SU with a five-point loss to former ACC rival Virginia also on the early resume. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games after failing to cover as 3 ½-point home underdogs against the Cavaliers.
Betting Trends
-- The Ramblers are 7-2 ATS is their last nine neutral-site games, but they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the Big Ten. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last 11 games at a neutral site.
-- The Terrapins have a 29-13-4 record ATS in their last 46 Saturday games, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five games at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in their last nine games coming off a SU loss.
No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers at Marquette Golden Eagles (FOX, 5:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Pick 'em, Total 136
Betting Matchup
The Badgers moved to 2-0 SU in Big Ten play with Monday’s 69-64 victory against Rutgers at home, but they could not cover the closing 12-point spread. They closed as two-point road favorites in last week’s 72-66 win against Iowa. Wisconsin is 8-1 SU overall with a 5-4 record ATS after failing to cover in three of its last four games. Senior forward Ethan Happ has scored 19 points or more in three of his last four games.
With Tuesday’s 76-69 victory against UTEP, the Golden Eagles have won their last four games SU to improve to 7-2 overall. They failed to cover in that game as heavy 20 ½-point home favorites to fall to 4-5 ATS. Marquette is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in six previous home games this season with the total going OVER in two of its last three games at home.
Betting Trends
-- The Badgers have covered the spread in their last nine road games and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games against the Big East.
-- The Golden Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team from the Big Ten and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games coming off a loss ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games against the Big Ten.
-- Head-to-head in this in-state rivalry, the road team has covered in four of the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings at Marquette.
Creighton Bluejays at No. 24 Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Ten Network, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Nebraska -6, Total 151
Betting Matchup
Last Saturday, Creighton (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) put up a valiant effort against the top team in the nation with a 103-92 loss to Gonzaga as a 6 ½-point underdog. This snapped a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The total went well OVER the closing 167-point line against the Bulldogs and it has gone OVER in the Bluejays’ last five games. Sophomore guard Ty-Shon Alexander put up 27 points against Gonzaga while going 11-of-22 from the field.
Nebraska split its first two conference games starting with Sunday’s 75-60 victory at home against Illinois as a 13-point favorite. The Cornhuskers came up short on Wednesday night in a 85-78 loss to Minnesota as four-point favorites on the road. The total went OVER 145 points in that game after staying UNDER in their previous four contests. They are 7-2 SU overall with a 6-2-1 record ATS.
Betting Trends
-- The Bluejays have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games following a double-digit loss and they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against the Big Ten. The total has gone OVER in their last four Saturday games.
-- The Cornhuskers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team from the Big East, but they have gone18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games at home.
-- The favorite in this matchup has covered in five of the last seven meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last four meetings in Nebraska.