NCAAB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, February 28th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Young Maryland team (#317 in experience) lost five of last seven games, allowing 81 pts/game during 3-game losing skid. Terrapins are 6-2 on Big 14 road; underdogs covered seven of those eight games- they’re 3-4 as a Big 14 favorite. Rutgers lost seven of last eight games but is 4-1 vs spread in last five; Knights are 3-2 as a Big 14 home underdog. Terps beat Rutgers 67-55 at home Jan 24; they’re 4-0 vs Scarlet Knights in big 14 play, winning 60-50 in last visit here, two years ago. Big 14 road favorites of 5 or less points are 6-12 vs spread.

Seton Hall won five of last seven games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites- they’re 6-2 at home, with four wins by 7 or less points. Georgetown lost three in row, five of last six games; they’re 2-4 as a road underdog, with road losses by 10-6-11-11-17-6 points. Seton Hall won 68-66 in OT at Georgetown Feb 4, in brick fest where teams combined to go 4-30 on arc; Pirates won five of last seven series games, winning three of last four played here, with losses by 18-15-8 points. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-6-1 vs spread this season.

Purdue won 69-64 at Indiana Feb 9; they’ve won five of last six games against rival Hoosiers, but they’ve lost three of last four visits to Bloomington. Boilermakers had 6-game win streak snapped Saturday, are 6-2 vs spread as home favorites- they won last six home games, since loss to Minnesota. Indiana snapped its 5-game skid Saturday; they’re 1-6 on Big 14 road, 2-3 vs spread as a road underdog, with losses by 3-30-13-5-1-3 points on foreign soil. Double digit home favorites are 11-9 vs spread in Big 14 games this season.

Duke’s Allen/Jefferson are game time decision with injuries. Blue Devils lost their last two games, are 3-5 as home favorites, 7-1 at home in ACC- their last four home wins were all by 8 or less points. Florida State won five of last seven games; they’re 3-5 on ACC road, 2-1 as a road underdog. FSU hammered Blue Devils 88-72 in first meeting Jan 10, Seminoles’ first win in last five games with Duke. FSU lost by 22-15 points in last two games in Durham. Single digit home favorites are 30-21-1 vs spread in ACC games this season.

Davidson lost five of its last seven games; they’re 3-5 at home in A-14, 2-4 as a home favorite. St Bonaventure won three of last four games, is 4-4 on A-14 road, 2-2 as a road underdog, with losses by 17-12-6-4 points on road- their last three games were decided by total of 13 points. Bonnies are 2-1 vs Davidson in A-14 games, but Wildcats beat them 90-86 in OT in LY’s A-14 tourney. Bonnies (+7.5) won here 62-61 two years ago. A-14 home favorites of 3 or less points are 4-10 against the spread this season.

Central Michigan lost its last five games, allowing 93 pts/game; hard to play good defense if you start two 5-9 guards. Chippewas lost last three road games, are 4-4 in MAC home games, 1-2 as a home underdog. Eastern Michigan snapped a 7-game skid Saturday; they lost four of last five road games, are 1-4 as a MAC road underdog. Eastern scored 51 points in 2nd half, beat CMU 85-63 Jan 3; Eagles won six of last eight series games- teams split last four meetings played here. MAC road favorites of 2 or fewer points are 5-3-1 vs spread this season.

Ball State won three of last four games; they’re 4-4 on MAC road, 5-2 as a road underdog, with road losses by 10-5-2-25 points. Toledo won four of its last six games; they’re 6-2 at home in MAC, 6-2 as a home favorite- three of their last seven games went to OT. Ball beat Toledo 81-80 at home Jan 31, despite Rockets going 11-24 on arc. Toledo led by 11 early, by 7 with 12:11 left. Rockets are 5-2 in last seven series games; Ball St lost last three visits to Toledo, by 11-11-10 points. MAC home favorites of 6+ points are 10-22-1 vs spread this season.

Ohio was 24-35 on foul line in 74-72 win at Buffalo Jan 10; Bobcats were down 14 with 15:19 left. Ohio is 11-3 in last 14 series games, winning by 2-7 points in last two games played here. Bobcats won four of last five games, are 4-3 SU at home, 4-3 as a home favorite; their home wins are by 31-18-15-20 points. Buffalo lost its last two games, both at home; they’re 5-3 on MAC road, 4-1 as a road underdog- their road losses are by 32-1-1 point. MAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 14-9 against the spread this season.

Western Michigan won/covered its last six games; they won last two road games after losing first six on foreign soil. Broncos are 4-3 as road underdogs. Northern Illinois lost five of its last six games, losing last two home games, both in OT. Huskies are 1-4 as a home favorite. WMU was 26-35 on foul line in 76-67 win over NIU Feb 11; home side won last six series games. Broncos are are 13-2 in last 15 games, but lost last two visits here, by 2-9 points. Road teams are 10-8-1 vs spread in MAC games where spread was 2 or less points.

St John’s lost six of its last seven road games; they’re 2-5 as road underdogs, with losses by 15-28-13-13-24-22 points on foreign soil. Creighton lost three of last four games, is 4-6 since Watson got hurt. Bluejays are 4-3 vs spread as a Big East home favorite. Creighton shot 62% inside arc in 85-72 win at St John’s Jan 4, back when they had Watson. Bluejays are 5-2 in Big East games with Red Storm, winning all three meetings here, by 3-3-41 points. Double digit home favorites are 8-10 vs spread in Big East games this season.

Oklahoma State won five in row, nine of last 10 games; Cowboys are 5-1 as a road underdog in Big X- they won last five road games, covered last seven. Iowa State won/covered its last five games; they’re 5-1 as a home favorite- their two home losses were Kansas, West Virginia. ISU scored 31 points in last 7:12 of 96-86 win in Stillwater Jan 11; Cyclones were 10-26 on arc for game. ISU won its last eight games with the Cowboys, winning last five played here, by 3-11-4-2-8 points. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-12-1 vs spread this season.

Colorado State won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); they’re 5-3 as home favorite, with home losses to New Mexico/Boise State. CSU won 78-73 at rival Wyoming two weeks ago, despite going only 21-34 on foul line- that was Rams’ first win in last six series games. Cowboys won by 6-18 points in last two visits to Moby Arena. Wyoming lost three of last four games; they’re 4-2 as road underdogs, with MW road losses (2-6) by 6-15-7-9-7-4 points. Mountain West home favorites of 7+ points are 8-13-1 against the spread.

Boise State split last four games, is 0-6 vs spread in its last six; they’re 1-7 as a home favorite, with home wins by 1-12-2-10-4-7 points. Fresno State won/covered its last three games, is 3-2 as a road underdog- they’ve been off for six days. Boise lost 89-80 in Fresno Jan 14, loss that snapped Broncos’ 7-game win streak. Home side won last six series games. Bulldogs lost their last 12 games in Boise, with six of last ten losses here by 10+ points. Mountain West home favorites of less than 5 points are 13-15 vs spread this season.

Armadillosports.com

Trends to Watch - Tuesday
VegasInsider.com

Old Oaken Bucket Battle

Purdue plays host to Indiana in a Hoosier State battle. The Hoosiers slapped the brakes on a five-game skid with a one-point win against Northwestern last time out, but IU is still just 1-4 ATS over their past five outings. While the Hoosiers are not coming close to preseason expectations, barely holding their heads above the .500 mark, they are even worse on the road. Indiana has dropped five straight on the road, and seven of their past eight overall while going 2-5-1 ATS.

The Boilermakers topped the Hoosiers in Bloomington back on Feb. 9, one of six wins in their past seven outings. They're coming off a 12-point loss at Michigan on Saturday, so the Boilers figure to be rather ornery for their rival visitors. Purdue is 13-1 SU in their past 14 home games dating back to a Nov. 14 loss in West Lafayette against the defending champs from Villanova. They have also covered six in a row on their own court since a New Year's Day overtime setback against Minnesota.

The Hoosiers are 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight home games and 2-5 ATS in their past seven as an underdog. They're also 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. The Boilermakers are an impressive 15-6-2 ATS in their past 23 conference tilts, and 14-6-1 ATS in their past 21. They're also 21-8-1 ATS in their past 30 outings at home. In this series the favorite has cashed in six of the past eight overall with the Hoosiers failing to cover in five straight meetings.

Ames to Please

Iowa State returned to the Top 25 this week and will look for their 20th victory of the season on Tuesday. Oklahoma State has already secured their 20th win, and they look to add to their resume and improved their seeding for the NCAA Tournament. A win over the Cyclones in Ames would go a long way in making their body of work look a whole lot more impressive.

These clubs battled in Stillwater back on Jan. 11, and it was the Cyclones coming away with a 96-86 victory as 3 1/2-point underdogs. As of Tuesday morning I-State finds themselves as 3 1/2-point favorites.

The Cowboys have covered seven in a row on the road, and they're 9-1-1 ATS in their past 11 games as a road underdog. They have also covered eight of their past 10 league games. The Cyclones have been just as impressive against the number, going 5-0 ATS in their past five outings, and 4-0 ATS in their past four as a home favorite. The road team has covered five in a row, with the underdog 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. However, the Cowboys are just 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

It's All About the South

The Big South Conference Tournament gets underway, and all four teams playing on Tuesday are under .500. However, that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made.

In South Carolina, Charleston Southern hosts Longwood, with the Buccaneers favored by 11 1/2. These teams just met in the regular season finale in Virginia, with the Lancers falling 86-78. In the first meeting it was the Buccaneers winning by 15 points. The Bucs will be looking for a little revenge after losing to Longwood in the first round of the Big South tourney in each of the past two seasons. Given the history between these sides, an 11-point spread might be a bit much.

Campbell plays host to Presbyterian in the other first round game. Vegas has the Camels favored by 13 points over the Blue Hose. Campbell swept the regular season series, winning 69-58 on their home court back on New Year's Eve, while topping the Blue Hose in South Carolina back on Feb. 11 by a 70-57 count. Campbell is a respectable 6-5 SU in their past 11 games in Buies Creek. Meanwhile, Presbyterian has won just five of their 29 games overall, dropping eight in a row dating back to Jan. 28. Four of their past five losses have been by 13 or more points.

Patriot Act

American travels to Army in opening round action of the Patriot League tourney. Neither of these teams were particularly good this season, with the Eagles posting an 8-21 SU mark and the Black Knights going 12-18 SU. Army has won three of their past four games overall, but they lost 61-58 at home against American on Feb. 11. Army won the first meeting 53-49 in D.C., but with both games decided by an average of 3 1/2, a 6 1/2-point number looks a bit curious.

Lafayette meets Loyola-Maryland in first-round Patriot action, and the Greyhounds look to push their record to .500 on the season with a win. They won the most recent meeting at Lafayette by a 70-62 score on Jan. 28, but were tripped up at home 78-69 in the first meeting on Jan. 2. Loyola is listed as a 10-point favorite as of Tuesday morning despite the fact the Greyhounds have won only one of their past 12 games by double digits.

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Florida State at Duke

Duke (22-7 straight up, 11-17 against the spread) has won 14 of 15 home games at Cameron Indoor Stadium, posting a 6-8 spread record.

Duke junior guard Grayson Allen is listed as ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury. Allen sat out Saturday’s loss at Miami. He is averaging 15.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. Also, senior forward Amile Jefferson is ‘questionable’ with a foot injury. Jefferson averages 11.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game.

Due to Allen and Jefferson’s uncertainty, there was no overnight line for FSU-Duke and there still wasn’t a number out as of early this morning. .

Once Mike Krzyzewski came back to the team after missing a good chunk of January following back surgery, Duke responded by winning seven straight games. Since then, however, the Blue Devils have dropped back-to-back contests at Syracuse (78-75) and at Miami (55-50). Coach K’s squad led the ‘Cuse by eight going to intermission at the Carrier Dome last Wednesday, only to lose on John Dillon’s buzzer-beating 28-footer from beyond the key that kissed home off the glass.

Duke lost in Coral Gables as a one-point road favorite, mustering just a season-low 50 points due to inept shooting from the field (31.8%) and downtown (23.8%) against the Orange’s vaunted matchup zone. Kennard and Frank Jackson scored 16 points apiece in the losing effort. Jayson Tatum, who had scored at least 19 points in four of the previous five games, was held to eight points on 4-of-16 shooting from the field, including eight misses without a make from 3-point land.

Duke is No. 13 in the RPI Rankings and No. 17 in the Associated Press’s Top 25. The Blue Devils are 4-3 against the RPI Top 25, 9-5 versus the Top 50 and 13-6 against the Top 100. They own wins at Virginia, at Notre Dame and at Wake Forest, in addition to neutral-court victories over Rhode Island, Florida and Penn State. Plus, Duke has home scalps of Michigan State, Miami, North Carolina and Wake Forest.

Kennard is enjoying a first-team All-ACC campaign. After torching my Gators for 29 points on 11-of-16 shooting at Madison Square Garden in New York City back in early December, I said Kennard has the best lefty shooting stroke I’d seen since Chris Mullin. He is averaging a team-best 19.9 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Kennard is hitting 50.8 percent of his attempts from the field, including 45.6 percent of his launches from 3-point range. Tatum (16.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is making a team-high 87.0 percent of his free throws.

FSU (23-6 SU, 15-10-2 ATS) is in a three-way tie for second place in the ACC, sharing identical 11-5 league records with Louisville and Notre Dame. Since dropping consecutive games at Notre Dame and at Pitt by double-digit margins, the Seminoles have responded with back-to-back victories vs. Boston College (104-72) and at Clemson. They captured a 76-74 win to push past Clemson at Littlejohn Coliseum as two-point road ‘chalk.’ Xavier Rathan-Mayes was the catalyst with 15 points, four rebounds and seven assists compared to merely one turnover. Jonathan Isaac added 14 points and Dwayne Bacon was also in double figures with 12 points. However, Bacon was just 3-of-14 from the field and had more turnovers (three) than assists (one).

Isaac, a six-foot, 10-inch true freshman forward, is currently listed as the No. 4 overall pick in the latest 2017 mock at nbadraft.net. Isaac is averaging 12.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.5 blocked shots and 1.2 steals per game. He’s making 53.1 percent of his shots from the field, 37.8 percent of his launches from 3-point range and 80.8 percent of his free throws.

Leonard Hamilton’s squad has lost five of its eight road assignments, limping to a 2-5 spread record. The ‘Noles have been road underdogs three times this season, producing a 2-1 record both SU and ATS with outright scalps at Virginia and at Miami.

Bacon paces FSU in scoring with a 16.6 PPG average. He is ranked No. 21 at nbadraft.net. Rathan-Mayes (10.3 PPG) has a 144/50 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

When these teams met in Tallahassee on Jan. 10, FSU coasted to an 88-72 win as a 1.5-point home favorite. The 160 combined points slithered ‘over’ the 158.5-point total. Rathan-Mayes led four ‘Noles in double figures with 21 points. Bacon added 13 points, six rebounds, five assists and two steals, while Terance Mann contributed 13 points and seven boards. In the losing effort, Kennard and Tatum had 23 and 21 points, respectively.

Nbadraft.net has Tatum at No. 7 and Kennard at No. 24. Harry Giles, a true freshman center who was a five-star recruit, is listed at No. 12. However, Giles tore his ACL as a prep senior last year and didn’t get on the court for the Blue Devils until late December. Coach K has brought him along slow, playing Giles an average of only 12 minutes per game. Giles is averaging 4.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.

The ‘under’ is 15-12-1 overall for the Blue Devils, 8-5-1 in their home outings.

The ‘over’ is 15-12-2 overall for the ‘Noles, but they’ve watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 in their road contests.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky

Like FSU-Duke, there was no overnight line for tonight’s SEC showdown at Rupp Arena. This is due to the ‘questionable’ status of Kentucky’s star freshman point guard De’Aaron Fox, who is averaging 15.5 points, 5.3 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. Fox sustained a knee contusion in last week’s non-covering win at Missouri, causing him to be in street clothes for Saturday’s come-from-behind win vs. Florida.

Kentucky (24-5 SU, 15-14 ATS) took control of first place in the SEC standings with a 14-2 league record thanks to Saturday’s 76-66 win over Florida as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Malik Monk exploded for 30 of his 33 points in the second half to pace the Wildcats, who are one game up on the Gators in conference play with two games remaining. Two more wins for John Calipari’s team would give the school its 48th SEC regular-season title. Cal’s club took advantage of 27 trips to the free-throw line compared to only six for UF, and we’ll get more into that below in Bonus Nuggets. The ‘Cats enjoyed a 45-28 rebounding edge on the glass after getting dominate on the boards in an 88-66 loss at UF earlier this month. Edrice Adebayo added 18 points and 15 rebounds, converting 7-of-11 shots from the field.

Since the aforementioned loss in Gainesville on Feb. 4, Kentucky has ripped off six straight wins, going 2-1 ATS in three home games during this span. On Valentine’s Day, UK stroked Tennessee 83-58 as a 14-point home favorite in a revenge game after losing in Knoxville.

UK is No. 6 in the RPI and No. 9 in the AP poll. The ‘Cats are 2-4 against the RPI Top 25, 6-4 versus the Top 50 and 14-5 against the Top 100. They have neutral-court wins over Michigan St. and UNC, in addition to home victories over the likes of Arkansas, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia and UT. Kentucky’s best road wins have come at Vanderbilt, at Ole Miss, at Alabama and at Georgia.

Monk paces UK with his 21.5 PPG average. The true freshman guard is draining 41.9 percent of his 3’s. Adebayo (13.2 PPG) leads the ‘Cats in rebounding (7.7 RPG), field-goal percentage (60.8%) and blocked shots (1.6 BPG).

UK has won 14 of 16 home games at Rupp while going 10-6 ATS.

UK’s Fox and Monk are listed at No. 5 and No. 8 overall in the latest mock at nbadraft.net.

In the latest edition of ‘Bracketology’ from Joe Lunardi at ESPN.com, Vanderbilt (16-13 SU, 16-11 ATS) is a part of the ‘Last Four In’ to the field of 68. Bryce Drew’s squad has won four in a row and seven of its last nine both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 77-48 run-away-and-hide triumph over Mississippi State as a 7.5-point home ‘chalk’ at Memorial Gymnasium in Music City. Jeff Roberson led the way with 23 points and seven rebounds, draining 5-of-6 shots from 3-point land. Luke Kornet produced 10 points, eight rebounds and a pair of blocked shots, while Riley LaChance contributed 11 points and three assists without a turnover.

Vandy is 7-3 ATS in 10 road assignments with five outright wins. The Commodores have compiled a 6-2 spread record as road underdogs with four outright victories. In fact, they’ve won outright in four straight such spots.

Vandy is No. 47 in the RPI, going 1-4 against the Top 25, 4-6 versus the Top 50 and 9-12 against the Top 100. Drew’s team has just one loss outside of the Top 100, losing 72-52 at Missouri (RPI: 254) a few weeks ago. The Commodores have road wins at Florida, at Arkansas, at Texas A&M and at Tennessee. They also own home victories over Iowa St., South Carolina, Auburn, Texas A&M and Belmont.

Vandy has a balanced scoring attack led by Matthew Fisher-Davis, who is averaging 15.0 PPG. Kornet averages 13.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 blocked shots per game. Roberson (11.1 PPG) and LaChance (10.1 PPG) are also scoring in double figures, with LaChance draining 49.1 percent of his 3-pointers and 85.0 percent of his free throws. LaChance has a 118/54 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

The ‘over’ is 16-13 overall for UK, 9-7 in its home games.

The ‘under’ is 14-12 overall for Vandy, cashing at a remarkable 8-2 clip in its road outings. Regardless of the venue, the Commodores have seen the ‘under’ cash in three in a row and five of their last six.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Let’s provide a quick history lesson for NBA Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas (of Detroit Pistons fame, not the current star for the Celtics). The TNT analyst was talking about Seth and Steph Curry last night, noting that Seth was considered the better player coming out of high school because he went to Duke while Steph went to Davidson. Actually, ‘Zeke, Seth’s collegiate career began at Liberty before he sat out a season to transfer to Duke. You can’t tackle this topic without noting the complete ineptitude of ESPN analyst Seth Greenberg, who is at the Global Leader instead of on the sidelines for good reason(s). You see, Seth and Steph’s Dad Dell was a Virginia Tech legend before spending more than a decade in the NBA as one of The Association’s best long-ball shooters. Steph and Seth grew up going to Va. Tech basketball camp in Blacksburg. Nevertheless, Greenberg, the former Virginia Tech coach, felt that Steph was too small and didn’t offer him a scholarship. Therefore, Steph went to Davidson and led the school to the 2008 Elite Eight before losing by one to eventual national champ, Kansas. It was one thing for Greenberg to miss on Steph, but to then do the exact same thing with Seth was beyond inexcusable. Alas, Greenberg’s coaching career is over, while Steph and Seth are thriving as players in the NBA who Greenberg didn’t feel were worthy of scholarships despite their status as legacies.

With a 6-10 record in Big 10 play and a 16-13 overall ledger, to say that Indiana needs a win at Purdue tonight would be quite the understatement. These bitter rivals will collide in West Lafayette at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. IU was a 10.5-point road underdog early this morning. Tom Crean’s team has lost outright in seven of eight road contests while limping to a 2-5 spread record. The Boilermakers are 14-2 SU and 10-3 ATS at home.

There’s home cookin’ and then there’s what you saw Saturday at Rupp Arena. Malik Monk shot 11 free throws in Kentucky’s 76-66 come-from-behind win over Florida, which went to the charity stripe only six times. The Wildcats were given 27 attempts at the FT line. UF was in complete control for the first 32 minutes, leading by eight and keeping asses in seats and in silence inside the storied arena packed with Big Blue Nation’s restless card-carrying members. With a 3-ball and three assists during a five-possession stretch, UF’s Chris Chiozza was feeling it before getting his fourth foul. In fact, UK was in the bonus while Chiozza and Kasey Hill both had four fouls with more than 10 minutes remaining. Unable to play physical on defense due to foul trouble and concern about putting UK on the FT line, Monk was able to get loose and completely turn the game.

Maryland is slumping going into the RAC tonight to face the Scarlet Knights at 6:30 p.m. Eastern on The Big Ten Network. As of early this morning, the Terrapins were favored by five points. Mark Turgeon’s team is 7-2 both SU and ATS in nine road assignments. Maryland will be looking to avoid a fourth straight loss both SU and ATS after falling at Wisconsin and at home vs. Minnesota and Iowa. Rutgers is 9-5 SU and 4-5 ATS at home. RU is 3-2 ATS with one outright win in five games as a home underdog.

Oklahoma State will venture to Ames tonight to face Iowa St. at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. The Cyclones were favored by 3.5 points early this morning. They are 11-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 8-2 ATS with seven outright wins on the road. Oklahoma St. has won 10 of its last 11 games while posting a lucrative 9-2 spread record.

Georgia Tech was listed as a two-point home favorite for tonight’s ACC showdown against Pitt as of early this morning. These schools will collide at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

Duke hosts Florida State
By: StatFox.com

#15 Florida State will be looking to make a statement with a big road victory over #17 Duke on Tuesday.

The Seminoles have won two straight games heading into Tuesday, and they’ll now look to win their first game in Cameron Indoor Stadium since 2012. Florida State has lost two games in Durham since then, and Duke won those contests by a total of 37 points. The Seminoles will surely be trying to flip the script here, and they should be a confident team on Tuesday. They played a tough game in Clemson on Feb. 25, and they ended up winning 76-74 as 2.5-point favorites. This game should be even tougher, and Duke will definitely be the hungrier team on Tuesday. The Blue Devils have lost two straight coming into this one, as they fell by three at Syracuse on Feb. 22 and then lost by five at Miami on Feb. 25. They should, however, be excited to face a Seminoles team that they are 24-8 SU against since 1997. One trend that does favor Florida State is the fact that the team is 5-1 ATS after a game where the team made 78% of its free throws or better this season. The Seminoles also happen to be 8-2 ATS on Tuesday nights over the past three seasons. Duke, however, is 22-10 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive rebounds since 1997. G Grayson Allen (Ankle) is listed as questionable for Duke after missing last game, and his availability on Tuesday will go a long way in determining the outcome of this contest.

If Florida State is going to beat Duke for a second time this season then F Dwayne Bacon (16.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.0 SPG) is going to need to find his stroke for the Seminoles. Bacon has really struggled recently, scoring just 28 points total over the past three games. He is just 9-for-33 from the floor in that span, and that type of play is not going to cut it on Tuesday. Bacon would be wise to use his size to get some easy shots at the rim early. Once he sees the ball go in, he should be more confident taking jumpers. He has had some of his biggest games of the year in battles like this one, and he must come through for his team. F Jonathan Isaac (12.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.2 SPG) and G Xavier Rathan-Mayes (10.3 PPG, 5.0 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.0 SPG) will also need to play well for Florida State, though. Isaac is one of the most intriguing players in the nation, as he has the size of a big and the skill of a guard. He can, however, lack aggressiveness on occasion, and he must make sure that isn’t the case on Tuesday. Rathan-Mayes, meanwhile, is a very good scorer, and he is capable of getting hot in a hurry. It’d be big if he can knock down some big shots in this one.

If Grayson Allen (15.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG) is able to play on Tuesday then things would be a lot easier on Duke. The Blue Devils are facing an elite Seminoles team and can use all of the talent they can get. Allen might not be having the season many had hoped for, but he is still one of the better guards in the country. If he is unable to go then his teammates would need to pick up the slack. That would put a lot of pressure on somebody like G Luke Kennard (19.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG) in this one. Kennard has been one of the best players in college basketball this season, but it’d be tough for him to get going when he’s the only guy in the backcourt that Florida State needs to stop. Kennard faced a similar situation against Miami, and he went just 6-for-20 from the field in that game. Still, Kennard missed some shots he normally hits in that game and should be a bit better on Tuesday. He is far too good of a shooter to really struggle two games in a row. One guy that could help Kennard out in this one is F Jayson Tatum (16.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 1.2 SPG). The freshman struggled against Miami, scoring just eight points on 4-for-16 shooting from the field. He did, however, score at least 19 points in each of the previous three games and also had 21 points the last time he faced the Seminoles. Tatum’s ability to get to the basket and shoot the three makes him a tough cover, and he has really grown as a player in recent weeks. His play could be the x-factor here.