JACK JONES
Rockets vs. Pelicans
Play: Rockets -3½
The New Orleans Pelicans made a huge move before the deadline in acquiring DeMarcus Cousins. While this move will pay big dividends down the road, I think it's going to take some time, and the Pelicans certainly won't be hitting on all cylinders in their first game back from the break.
Plus, this is an awful matchup for the Pelicans, who will now be basically playing two centers. That's death against the Houston Rockets, who will take advantage of their matchups offensively out on the perimeter. Cousins and Davis don't do well defending on the perimeter and will be exposed here.
I like the fact that the Rockets were upset by the Heat in their final game before the break, which will have them coming back motivated. "It's good," head coach Mike D'Antoni said. "You get recharged. Guys are ready to roll. We have 24 games left. We need to make a nice run down the stretch. We have to do better. I think we've fallen off a bit of late. We have to get back our juices and embrace who we are."
Houston is 15-4 ATS versus poor teams who are outscored by their opponents by 3-plus points per game on the season this season. The Rockets are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win. New Orleans is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games playing on 3 or more days' rest.
JIMMY BOYD
Hornets vs. Pistons
Play: Over 206½
I like the value here on the total, as I have this one going well over the mark the books have set for this matchup. The Hornets come in averaging 103.8 ppg on the road, while allowing 106.4 ppg on the road, giving them an average score of 210.2 away from home. Detroit is only giving up 101.7 ppg, but allowed 100+ in 12 of their final 13 games before the break. The Pistons also average a respectable 103.7 ppg at home. These two played in Detroit on 1/5 and combined for 229 points, which was the 3rd straight game at Detroit to go OVER the mark.
The big key here is teams typically don't come back from the All-Star break 100% locked in on the defensive side of the ball. A big part of that is the difficultly of finding that motivational edge after getting a week off. In fact, I have a system I have found that has seen the OVER cash at a 65% clip when looking at the first game back from the All-Star break in a matchup of two teams with losing records who are not in the same division.
BRAD DIAMOND
Nebraska vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -5½
Granted the 'Huskers are in same season revenge off back-to-back wins, but State was just throttled by Purdue by 17. Doubt the more talented Spartans (16-11) will come up short either SU or ATS in this spot. Remember, despite rebounding edge for Nebraska (12-14), must note glaring issues last five times out shooting 30.2% from the three with woeful foul shooting at 61.7%. Playing in this building should once again prove futile to the visitor.
TONY KARPINSKI
Nebraska vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -5½
Miles Bridges is a very valuable player, with size and strength. The Michigan St super frosh makes over aggressive defenders miss when he is off the dribble, and his 16ppg is proof that he can score when he wants to. He can also bump some and use bulk to get to the rim when needed. Michigan State's young team will have their way vs the players of Nebraska.
Nebraska does not step out of their comfort zone at times, they fall into a mechanical style of play. Nebraska can also get into modes where they are forcing themselves to take shots that they shouldn't be taken - their poor FG% has more than shown that. The Nebraska defense, in particular, is going to struggle here vs the Spartans. Michigan St wins by 9 points behind their home court and size in the paint.
BEN BURNS
Lakers vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -9
The Williams/Brewer trade isn't about to make the Lakers any better. Not anytime soon, at least. A 36-point loss at Phoenix, prior to the break, dropped LA to 7-25 on the road. Meanwhile, the Thunder are off an 11-point win against the Knicks. That brought them to 20-8 at home. All signs point to another double-digit win here.
TEDDY COVERS
Rockets vs. Pelicans
Play: Rockets -3½
New Orleans may end up being a force to be reckoned with in a month or two. But tonight’s game against Houston is fraught with problems, leaving Alvin Gentry’s squad as a ‘bet-against’ squad as they try to work DeMarcus Cousins into the flow.
Cousins quote speaks volumes. “I think it's a great opportunity. I think we both can learn from one another. Our games compliment one another. Being together, I think, is going to make our jobs a lot easier. I'm excited for the opportunity. I think we can wreak havoc on this league. Will it happen overnight? Probably not. But the potential is scary.” Note his words: ‘Will it happen overnight? Probably not!”
Alvin Gentry concurs: "It's just a matter of putting it all together and, obviously, there's a chemistry thing. But I don't see that as a problem at all I think their (Davis' and Cousins') games are very complementary and it gives us an opportunity. Also, one of the areas we've struggled in is the rebounding part of it, especially giving up offensive rebounds. I think, honestly, with (Cousins') size and Omri's size, we can put a really big team out there on the floor.”
A ‘really big team out there’ is a terrible matchup against the high octane, wing based offense that the Rockets bring to the table. Stretch 4 Ryan Anderson: “I think this team has an advantage against any group. Bigs just aren't used to guarding this kind of offense that we have, really stretching the court. I don't see how two bigs will have an advantage against a team like us, where we really run the floor, we really try to make it a point to shoot as many 3s as possible. Threes are (worth) more than twos."
And Mike D’Antoni’s quote screams ‘bet-on’ in the first game after the All Star Break: “It's good. You get recharged. Guys are ready to roll. We have 24 games left. We need to make a nice run down the stretch. We have to do better. I think we've fallen off a bit of late. We have to get back our juices and embrace who we are. We know who we. We know how we have to play.”
Let’s not forget about the key addition for Houston. While Lou Williams doesn’t move the needle the way that Boogie Cousins does, Williams just happens to be the single most productive scorer in the NBA off the bench this year, giving Houston improved depth on the wing. Facing a Pelicans roster that just lost key rotation players Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway and Buddy Hield, expect the Rockets to roll to a comfortable road victory.
BLACK WIDOW
UTEP vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: UTEP +1
Bets on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 30 or more points in their last three games are 35-8 ATS since 1997. This situation's record is 6-2 this season alone. UTEP is coming on strong with a 9-2 record in its last 11 games. The Miners are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall as well.
TJ MASTERLINE
San Francisco vs. Loyola Marymount
Play: San Francisco -2
We definitely love the Dons tonight on the road. Here are some statistics that back up our play on San Francisco: Dons are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Loyola Marymount. Road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.Dons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Dons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite. Dons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. Dons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Dons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Dons are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Dons are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. West Coast. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. West Coast. Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games. Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL -1½ +193 over N.Y. Islanders
In the never ending quest to obtain meaningful data that allows analysts to compare NHL teams, a large amount of effort has been put into focusing upon the ideal situations to use for prediction going forward. Past practice largely saw a focus on comparing possession metrics, such as Fenwick or Corsi during 5-on-5 play to strip out the obvious effects of power plays and short-handed situations on a team’s shot attempt metrics. If the goal is comparing teams and individual skaters in the most “controlled” and least variable context possible, the restriction to 5v5 statistics makes a modicum of sense. Although if that is the objective, using 5v5 (score tied) data makes more sense frankly. Typically though, the main objective of analyzing underlying statistics is to predict and project future outcomes. In other words, a team up three goals with 20 minutes left is very unlikely going to win the Corsi For or shots on net battles in the third period. We’re more interested in the first 20 minutes combined with when games are tied or one team has a one-goal lead. That is referred to as “Adjusted Corsi”. You can now input other scenarios too. For instance, you can input home and away and/or any situation (score) to come up with a more accurate account of each individual team. Metrics or analytics in hockey are not as advanced as they are in baseball. However, more data is being added every year to improve the predictability of hockey games and the more data that is available, the more we’ll add it as part of our criterion. We mention all this because it paints a pretty ugly picture for the Islanders on the road.
First off, the Islanders are coming off a 3-1 lame victory in Detroit. Had the Islanders been playing any other team on Tuesday, they likely would have lost by two goals or more. Prior to that effort, the Isles' three previous road games were a 3-2 loss in New Jersey, a 7-1 loss in Toronto and a 3-0 loss in Ottawa. Combined, the Islanders were outscored 13-3 in those three losses but looking closely at the Islanders adjusted or situational Corsi, the result is not surprising at all. On the road when they’re tied or up/down one goal, the Islanders Corsi numbers are abhorrent. In that regard, the Islanders rank dead last in the NHL behind even Arizona, Colorado, Buffalo and Dallas. You may remember that the Islanders were written off for dead not long ago but a hot streak has them back in the playoff picture. That hot streak was more of a fluke than anything else. Yeah, the Islanders were playing their best hockey of the year then and they caught some teams sleeping but nobody is sleeping this time of year. Furthermore, the Islanders are now without Cal Clutterbuck and Casey Cizikas and while that pair isn’t John Tavaras and Josh Bailey, they’re almost as important because they both bring grit, they each play a significant role and their absence will absolutely, 100% be felt. Frankly, the Islanders are a mess and now this one sets up beautifully for the Canadiens.
The firing of Michel Therrien and the hiring of Claude Julien is old news but that change took place during Montreal’s bye week. When the Habs returned from their bye, they were hosting the Jets and lost 3-1. Two days ago, however, Montreal went into New York and beat the Rangers in OT to get Julien his first win and to also relieve some pressure off the Habs. Montreal can be excused for losing to the Jets coming off their bye. They have now had plenty of practice time with Julien, not to mention a good rest period. Montreal is healthy (not a single injury) and now the goal will be to get their fans a much anticipated victory under this new regime and the timing and opposition is perfect for that to happen.
Montreal is not just a hockey town. You see, hockey is a way of life in Montreal. Following the Habs is a way of life. To give you an idea of what we’re talking about, there were three local TV stations in Montreal that televised the Canadiens’ first PRACTICE under Claude Julien. Hockey is a religion in Montreal and now the Canadiens are a rejuvenated bunch that are primed to play one of their best games of the year after that uninspiring effort against Winnipeg in their first game at home under Julien. This is Montreal’s second home game under Julien and the Islanders are about to pay the price for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Calgary +135 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. The Lightning are coming off a 4-1 victory over Edmonton on Tuesday to run their current point streak to seven games. However, four of those games went into OT and the Bolts took more penalties than they drew in all but one of those games. Once again, results are influencing the market more than performance and that is something we’ll attempt to exploit. Tampa’s stock is high again, which makes us instant sellers. Ben Bishop is back in goal here and being showcased as trade bait but he’s a goaltender that the numbers suggest not to trust. Lastly, the Bolts have won five times in 18 games against top-10 competition and only 11 times in 32 games against top-16 competition. Both records are weak and among the worst in the league against playoff bound opponents.
The only thing preventing Calgary from being an upper-tier team is goaltending or lack thereof. Calgary’s 10 wins or winning percentage against top-10 teams is sixth in the NHL. The Flames have won six of their past nine games. Two of their three losses over that span were by one goal with one of those going into OT. The other loss occurred when the Flames were coming off their bye week. The Flames are in outstanding form right now. The acquisition of defensemen Michael Stone from Arizona boosts an already outstanding group of puck-moving defensemen. While we do not like the trade long-term, it absolutely helps the Flames out this year because Stone can play and may even thrive in this environment. The Flames have turned into a tenacious, hard-working team with a strong desire to win and if Brian Elliott doesn’t allow any softies here, this ticket will have a great chance to cash. Even if he does, the ticket still might cash. Overlay.
SPORTS WAGERS
SE MISSOURI ST +104 over Murray St
Make no mistake that this is not a match you will see on ESPN in a primetime slot rivaling the Battle of Tobacco Row for ratings. Nevertheless, contests of less attention and scrutiny still offer up the same payouts and if we dig deep enough, sometimes we can often find a game with great value attached to it. Such is the case here. With the resurgence of the Belmont Bruins in the Ohio Valley Conference, who sit at 21-5 overall with a majestic 14-1 conference record, the remaining constituents of the league seem to be the 11 Dwarves. As a result, both of these teams have slipped under the radar undetected but the fact remains this contest is critical, as both outfits are 8-6 in conference play in a deadlock with Tennessee-Martin for the West Division lead. The winner takes the inside track to challenge the Skyhawks for the division lead but that is irrelevant in Ohio Valley Conference Tournament seeding. What is significant is that only the top eight teams receive a bid to the tournament. The top two seeds receive a bye to the semifinals automatically. While Belmont has sewn up their bid to the semifinals, the current #2 seed is Morehead State, who sit just a game ahead of the pack at 9-5. SE Missouri State is deadlocked with Murray State and UT-Martin but they are also locked up with Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville State, who share identical conference records. Tennessee State is just half a game behind at 8-7. In essence, seeds #3 through #7 are all tied with #8 lurking just half of a game in the rear.
The point is that this game is much larger and important than perceived by the naked eye. SE Missouri State now gets Murray State at home, which figures to be especially advantageous for the Redhawks, as they are 9-3 in Cape Girardeau. Contrarily, Murray State is 3-9 away from home, yet they are the ones now spotting points/price on the road and that is not right. These two teams’ have played almost identical schedules in terms of strength, which makes Murray State’s road record even more disturbing. No matter what metric or stat you use to break this one down, you will find that very little separates these two. This is an extremely evenly matched game but the market is not allowing any points to SE Missouri State for being at home and that is something we are going to attempt to take advantage of. Wrong side favored.
Utah +129 over COLORADO
The Colorado Buffaloes had its three-game winning streak snapped by #7 Oregon on Saturday. While some media are forgiving the Buffs for a bad night against a ranked team, a closer look shows CU should not be let off the hook so easy. Colorado was blown out by 28 points as a 12-point pooch. Not showing up against one of the Pac-12's best is a big red flag in a game that could have had the Selection Committee considering them. Prior to that, the Buffs failed to cover as an 11½-point favorite at last place Oregon State. CU's other two most recent victories came against Washington State and Washington, the 10th and 11th place teams respectively. Their recent winning streak and a win over Oregon at the end of January (big deal) has the Buffs stock higher than it should be. The Ducks proved this past Saturday that Colorado’s victory over them in January meant nothing and besides, that was the Buffaloes only victory over a conference opponent with more wins than losses.
After a 5-2 start to conference play, the Utah Utes have fallen on hard times. The exclamation point on its recent struggles was a 68-67 loss to last place Oregon State on Sunday. At one point this season, the Utes looked like a lock for an NCAA Tournament bid but at 8-7 they are now on the bubble. A two-game losing streak has likely cost the Utes a first round bye in the conference tournament as well, but with their stock at a season low, there is some appeal in this Utah squad. The other team the Utes lost to last week was #7 Oregon. That game against the Beavers may have been a letdown spot after a tough game with the Ducks. After that loss to the Beavers, Utes coach Larry Krystkowiak said he “just about blew a gasket” when he heard his guys joking around, laughing and having a good ol’ time after the loss. They'll be no messing around here but it is worth noting that the Utes often travel with the Buffs. It's a dynamic that could play into this game. First, the Utes’ coaches watch more tape on the Buffaloes than anyone else, as Utah’s next opponent is usually coming off a game against Colorado. Secondly, Utah has won six straight games in this series and while that might wear on an in-conference rival, these two teams don't have that kind of relationship. This is a big brother, little brother dynamic. Little brother might be able to put up a fight for a big, but in the end they know they are likely going to get pounded and it’s a mindset that is difficult to overcome. Finally, the Utes don't have to win the Pac-12 tournament to have their ticket punched to The Big Dance but the Buffs do. The players on these two teams are very close and while we'd never suggest one squad would just roll over if the Utes push hard tonight, the same resistance that the Buffs would have against someone else just might not be there in this one. Colorado’s players are rooting for Utah to make the main event. They’re all buddies.
Larry Ness
Houston vs. New Orleans
Pick: Houston -4
The Rockets are 40-18 and if they resided in the East, they would trail only the 39-16 Cavaliers. However, the Rockets play in the West, leaving them EIGHT games back of the 47-9 Warriors and four games behind the 43-13 Spurs. A path to the NBA Finals would almsot assuredly have to go through BOTH San Antonio and then Golden State. So much for Houston's title hopes.
If one thinks that's depressing, think of prospects faced by the now Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins-led New Orleans Pelicans. They return from the All Star break 23-34, leaving them 2 1/2 games back of the Nuggets, who own the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. The Kings and Trail Blazers are between New Orleans and Denver, so if the Pelicans can pass both teams and then catch Denver, their reward would be a first-round matchup with the Warriors!
Houston ranks second in scoring to only Golden St at 114.4 PPG but still traded defensive-minded swingman Corey Brewer and a first-round draft pick for LA's Lou Williams. He's averaging a career-best 18.6 PPG and joins a loaded backcourt which features James Harden (29.2-8.3-11.0), Eric Gordon (17.2) and Patrick Beverley (9.6-4.3-5.6). Trade rumors swirl around Beverley, which I find shocking, as one regularly hears that Houston considers Beverley to be the team's most important player behind Harden,
Will the pairing of All Star MVP Davis (27.7 & 11.9) and talented but controversial Cousins (27.8 & 10.7), who owns a league-high 17 technicals, really work? Only time will tell but I want no part of New Orleans, a 14-15 home team, in its first game with both players on the court. Houston is 19-11 SU and ATS on the road and I'm taking the small road favorite.
Power Sports
UC Riverside vs. UC Santa Barbara
Play; UC Santa Barbara
This has been an uncharacteristically terrible season for the Gauchos, who come into this game w/ a rather odious 4-21 SU mark. Their only two Big West wins were games where both them and the opponent scored in the 50's. Somewhat shockingly, they've only broken the 60-pt barrier twice in the L11 games. So why even bother endorsing them? Well, for starters, their opponent tonight has lost 16 straight times in this building!
It's not like UC Riverside is playing well. The Highlanders have lost four in a row and are 0-4 ATS in those games as well. Their most recent defeat came at the hands of UC Irvine, by a score of 79-60, late Saturday night. A road favorite w/ only seven wins on the year is not appetizing to me. Especially one that is just 1-6 SU/ATS its last seven games. Again, the Highlanders are 0-16 SU their last 16 visits to this building.
Now, UC Riverside did beat UCSB earlier in the year. But that was at home, obviously. On the road, the Highlanders are just 3-11 SU and averaging 62.9 PPG. This is UCSB's final home game of the year, so you figure they'll want to send the seniors out w/ a shred of dignity.
Harry Bondi
DENVER -7 over Sacramento
Life without DeMarcus Cousins begins tonight for Sacramento and it’s not going to be pretty! Cousins averaged 28 points and 11 rebounds per game. those numbers are impossible to replace particularly with former Pelicans Buddy Heild, who has struggled in his rookie season and Tyreke Evans. Denver is back at full strength after injury issues left the Nuggets shorthanded in several games this month. Forward Danilo Gallinari is back after missing the last 8 games, forward Kenneth Faried will be back after missing four games and point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is expected to play after missing 11 of the last 14 games. Back at full strength against a team in transition, Denver dominates Sacramento.
Antony Dinero
Nebraska at Michigan St.
Play: Michigan St. -4.5
Michigan State faces an ablsolute must-win with the Huskers in town. Having already suffered 11 losses and with games against Wisconsin and Maryland remaining, this one can't get away. It's likely the Spartans won't be favored by more points than they are tonught against another team this season, so if they're going to extend a run of consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances under Tom Izzo to 20, they'll have to handle Nebraska for a second time in three weeks. An 80-63 Saturday loss at Purdue wasn't a dealbreaker, but Michigan State wouldn't be able to sweep an ugly upset loss like this one under the rug, which is dangerous since the 'Huskers have proven they can compete with anyone and have actually done some of their best work on the road in conference play. They also have key forward Ed Morrow back. Without their top rebounder and rim protector, Nebraska went 1-6, but has gone 2-1 since his return from a foot injury. It has also won in each of its last two visits to East Lansing and come in as the healthier group since top guard Tai Webster (17.7, 4.8, 4.2) has fully recovered from a groin injury that limited him in the first encounter. The Spartans will go the rest of the way without senior guard Eron Harris (10.7 ppg), who suffered a "significant" knee injury in the blowout loss to the Boilermakers. He'd hit a team-high 43 3-pointers and provided leadership for a young Spartans squad, so it will be up to the kids to respond without him. Nebraska's win at the Breslin Center was its first win over a top 10 team since 1997. The Huskers took down Big Ten-leading Purdue late last month. Four of the last five games in this series have been decided by fewer than 10 points. Ride Michigan State
Bruce Marshall
Knicks / Cavs Over 223
Previous meetings this campaign about as competitive as Sonny Liston's long-ago fights vs. Floyd Patterson, with Cleveland winning and covering first three, two of those in extreme blowout fashion. Cavs have now won all 7 SU vs. Knicks since beginning of last season. There will be a premium attached to LeBron & Co. for this one, and Phil Jackson might have made some personnel moves for Knicks over the break. But aside from surprise win over Spurs on Feb. 12, NY lost and failed to cover its other five games since Feb. 4, even with Kristaps Porzingis healthy and contributing and Carmelo (for the time being) still firing away. Knicks also not playing much defense lately (reflected in 8-2 "over" last 10), while Cavs "over" 12 of last 16.