Free Picks for Thursday, February 16th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
HAWAII AT UC SANTA BARBARA
PLAY: HAWAII -4.5
I have no idea whether or not Hawaii will part of the forthcoming Big West Tournament. Nobody else does, either. The Warriors still haven’t received word from the NCAA regarding the status of their current postseason ban. That is a bad joke on every level. First off, make a damn decision so plans can be made should the ban get lifted. There is no excuse for this taking so long.
Secondly, it’s a crock that the penalty is in place to begin with. The current coaches weren’t the problem, nor were the current players. I’ve never agreed with how penalties are meted out by the NCAA. Basically, it’s like the guy in front of me running a red light and me receiving the ticket because, even though I stopped like I was supposed to, I happened to be next in line. If there is anyone on the planet who can explain to me how this is just, let me know about it.
In any event, Hawaii is certainly playing with focus in the hopes they can continue their season in the Big West event, and perhaps even beyond in one of the minor tournaments. This is a very young team, but they’re very well coached and have clearly improved since the early portion of the schedule. At worst, the Warriors can finish the season with continued momentum and, in fact, they are still in mathematical contention for the regular season title.
The flip side is UC Santa Barbara. The Gauchos will get into the conference tournament if the Hawaii ban doesn’t get lifted. But there isn’t any doubt as to the worst team in the league this season. Everything has gone wrong for UCSB. They probably overscheduled a bit and started the season 2-9. Then they lost three post players, including a pair of starters to academic ineligibility. It got even worse a couple weeks ago when their best player went down with a knee injury.
UCSB doesn’t have a single double figure scorer on the active roster, they’re having to give expanded minutes to guys who aren’t ready for this level, and the buzz is that this might be it for longtime head coach Bob Williams. He’s been on the job for 19 years and has won more than 300 games. But his contract expires in August and I’m hearing who the school already has mind as a replacement for Williams. I can’t say who that is without burning my source, sorry, but let’s just say he gets really good info.
In any event, UCSB is barely competing in many of their games, with one blowout loss after another taking place. Hawaii won the first meeting by a huge margin and while I don’t expect this to be quite as lopsided, I do expect the visitors to complete the series sweep. I’ll spot the points with Hawaii.
Braxton Myles
Loyola Marymount vs. St. Mary's
Play: Loyola Marymount +16
With St. Mary's coming a tough loss against Gonzaga the team will no doubt be a little discouraged coming home to their court, but with them being 4-7 ATS at home this season they really should be off their game in this one. The first time these two played this season St. Mary's won the game by 12 just covering the 11.5 spread, I see this game being about the same type of game so the little extra padding on the total is great here. Loyola is 5-5 ATS this season on the road and are only averaging 1 less PPG in conference play this season. Go all in on Loyola Marymount in this one and you wont be disappointed!
Marc Lawrence
Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Texas A&M +4
Edges - Aggies: 3-0 ATS with revenge in this series; and 6-1 ATS in SEC games after facing Florida… Commodores: 12-28 ATS against avenging foes with same season loss revenge of 10 or more points. With Vandy looking ahead to games with 3rd-place South Carolina and in-state rival Tennessee, we recommend a 1* play on Texas A&M.
Jim Feist
UC Davis at Long Beach State
Pick: Under
A pair of strong defensive teams clash out West. UC Davis is 18-8 under the total in Big West conference games. Long Beach State is home where it plays its best defense. The Under is 45-18 in the 49ers last 63 home games, 27-13 under the total at home against a team with a losing road record.
Ken Thomson
CS Fullerton +1
Look for Cal State Fullerton to get revenge from an early Big west home loss to UCR back in January. Tre Cggins leads the Titans ( 18 ppg ) and should be focused for the Titans who have won three of their last four in Conference play. The Highlanders on the other hand have lost 4 of last 5 and are trending downward in the Big West. Two teams going in opposite directions down the stretch.
Ray Monohan
Celtics vs. Bulls
Play: Celtics +1
The Celtics take on Chicago Thursday night and Boston plus the point isn't a bad play.
Boston is a much better team than Chicago and one to seriously watch down the stretch of the season in the 2nd half.
They're a complete team with outside shooters and an inside presence and will really match up well with the Bulls here. They come in hot winners of 4 straight and 11 of their last 12 as well.
Some trends to note. Bulls are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 1 days rest. Celtics are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Don't sleep on this Boston team. Here against Chicago, they'll find plenty of success and should be able to control the tempo of this game.
Sean Murphy
Stars / Wild Under 5½
We've seen the 'under' cash in three of four meetings between the Stars and Wild this season yet the oddsmakers continue to dangle out a generous return with the under 5.5 goals here in their fifth matchup. I'm willing to go back to the well one more time.
We won with the 'under' the last time these two teams squared off in Dallas back in January - the result was a 3-2 shootout win for the Wild. We also cashed with the 'under' in Minnesota's most recent game - a 1-0 loss to the Ducks on Tuesday. In fact, we've been involved in each of the Wild's last four games so we're getting a pretty good feel for this squad.
The Stars need to tighten things up after allowing five goals in consecutive games - both losses. Dallas' offense has essentially run dry - relatively speaking - as it has scored three goals or less in six of its last seven contests.
The Wild have actually been one of the stronger 'over' bets in the league this season but I don't see that trend continuing down the stretch.
David Banks
Utah @ Oregon
Pick: Utah +9.5
If fifth-ranked Oregon is going to have a shot at winning the Pac-12 regular season title, the Ducks have to take care of their own business first and then hope for some help. Oregon, which lost to UCLA by three last week, is now 11-2 in conference play, a game behind conference leader Arizona (12-1). The Ducks will face Utah (17-8, 8-5) on Thursday, a team that Oregon defeated 73-67 just a little over two weeks ago.
Not many teams in the Pac-12 have as much talent as the Ducks, but the Utes have tons of experience. Leading scorer Kyle Kuzma (15.7 ppg, 10.2 rpg) can play with the best in the conference. Guard Lorenzo Bonam is another experienced Ute that averages 13.0 points a game. David Collette is a 6-8 junior who averages nearly 15 points and five rebounds a game. Utah can go nine deep in their bench and may have to in order to keep up with the Ducks.
Oregon, 22-4 overall, is led by 6-6 Dillon Brooks, a big-bodied guard who is likely the most underrated player in the Pac-12. Brooks averages 14.9 points a game to lead the Ducks. Chris Boucher is a dynamic 6-10 athlete who scores 12.0 points a game, averages 6.6 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks. Jordan Bell is a 6-9 junior who also scores in double figures (10.8 ), averages 8.1 rebounds, and blocks 2.1 shots per game. The Ducks are one of the better defensive teams in the country and they have yet to lose a game at home this season.
Carmine Bianco
Osmanlispor at Olympiakos
Play: Olympiakos
Thursday's Free Play is the Greek side Olympiakos who are a very good home side in domestic league and Cup play and face a Turkish side that has struggled badly in 2017 thus far. Olympiakos to get the result on Thursday.
Buster Sports
Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues
Play: Vancouver Canucks +175
Vancouver comes to St. Louis tonight on the last game of their 6 game road trip and so far they have a 2-3 record. St. Louis is coming off of a 5 game road trip and this is their first game at home since the 4th of February. Since Mike Yeo has taken over as head coach they have played some excellent hockey going 6-1. Last night they played a hard fought game with their rival the Detroit Red Wings, winning 2-0. They have a real quick turnaround tonight and we believe that the Canucks are a live underdog here at a big price. The only reason this is not a premium pick is because the Blues actually had 3 days off to host their charity casino night before going back on the road to Detroit for last nights game. Vancouver is getting plus 175 at the time of this writing and we will take it with the live DOG.
Micah Roberts
Arizona St. at Washington
Play: Arizona St +2
Washington has a seven game losing streak going, which includes a 75-86 loss at ASU three weeks ago, and the Huskies have only covered one game over that span helping to make its 7-17 ATS mark the worst in college hoops this season. Things don't look promising tonight for a win, especially with leading scorer Markelle Fultz' 23 ppg very questionable. ASU has covered three of its last four and I expect them to win easily tonight. I also made a smaller wager on the Under just because ASU's totals have peaked after being adjusted for going Over the first half of the season. Washington simply can't score and has stayed Under in its last six games.
Dave Essler
Michigan -1
Been waiting for some movement to confirm - need to buy to -1 or ML - and here's why. Both teams are going to live and die with the outside shot, and Michigan just has more people that shoot better. They are also a MUCH better FT shooting team, and if they got there more often I'd go bigger on this one, too. Michigan lost at Wisconsin back when Michigan just wasn't playing well, and with the exception of their game at Illinois, most of the Badgers' road games have been quite close - so give me the home team.
ASA
Celtics / Bulls Over 212.5
The Celtics played last night and clearly when they play games without rest their defense suffers. When playing the second night of a back to back the Celtics have an 8-4 OVER record and they allow an average of 120PPG. In their last eight games in this scheduling situation they are 8-0 OVER with the average total points in those games being 225PPG. Even the Bulls offense, that averages just 1.071 points per possession, should score points against a fatigued Boston defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rankings. Boston is going to score here too as they have one of the better offenses in the league averaging 108.5PPG with the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA. The Bulls defense (or lack of) has allowed 107 or more points in 9 of their last ten games, and most recently allowed 117, 115 and 123 against three similar teams to Boston. C’s over streak of 10-2 their last 12 on the road while Bulls over in 7 of their last ten at home against a team with a +.500 record.
Jack Brayman
My free play is the 11th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers in Ann Arboer, as they visit Michigan in a key Big Ten clash.
The overnight line on this was Wisconsin +1, and has since moved to +2.5. Love the Badgers even more, obviously.
Wisconsin (21-4, 10-2 Big Ten) is going to be pissed off, as it is coming in after on Sunday, when its eight-game win streak was snapped with a 66-59 home setback to Northwestern.
That loss sliced the Badgers' lead to a half-game in the Big Ten over Maryland and Purdue. Thus, we have a situation that puts Wisconsin in must-win mode. And I think the confidence and motivation to get this one done will be there, since it is facing a Michigan team it has beaten 17 of the last 19 meetings, including Jan. 17, when the Badgers Wisconsin won 68-64 in the first meeting of the season.
Take Wisconsin here, as it has to win this contest.
5* WISCONSIN