Jack Jones
Colorado vs. Cincinnati
Play: Colorado +100
The Colorado Rockies are 27-17 on the season and have been a money-making machine all year for bettors. They will be motivated following a big blown lead against the Reds yesterday to lose 8-12. Look for them to come back with a win Sunday.
The Rockies have the clear edge on the mound with Kyle Freeland, who is 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA in eight starts this season. Freeland has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts. The Rockies are 4-0 in those four games.
Bronson Arroyo is a washed up veteran who will get rocked today by this potent Rockies lineup. Arroyo is 3-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in eight starts this season. He has already allowed 11 homers in 41 1/3 innings. Arroyo is also 5-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 13 career starts against Colorado.
The Rockies are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Colorado is 5-1 in its last six games following a loss. The Rockies are 5-1 in Freeland's last six starts. The Reds are 19-39 in their last 58 games vs. a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is 1-7 in its last eight games overall.
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI/Colorado Over 9½
One could almost chose either side here because there figures to be a lot of crooked numbers put up by both sides and one of them is likely going to win by two or more. We’re not going to guess which one but this one has the same feel as yesterday’s 12-8 Cincinnati win in which the Rocks were small favorite and with what appeared to be a superior pitcher based on surface stats and that’s precisely the same situation here.
After eight starts, Kyle Freeland is 4-2 with a tremendous 3.13 ERA. He’s pitched at home four times and on the road four times and on the road he’s 4-2 with an ERA of 2.42. Those are outstanding numbers for Freeland after eight starts just like Antonio Senzatela had going into yesterday but like Senzatela, Freeland’s surface stats are an illusion too. Freeland’s great success has had more to do with a high strand % and low hr/f than skill. His xERA of 5.28 shows that he's due for a sizable ERA correction. His command has been lousy (and declining as he's moved up the ladder). His K-rate (29 K’s in 46 innings), swing and miss rate (7%) and first-pitch strike rate (52%) do not offer any hope for improvement. Any pitcher with control problems who puts a lot of balls in play is not a good match for Coors Field or Great American Ball Park. Our scouting report of Freeland stated that his change-up lags behind his fastball and slider in quality, adding that "the 23-year-old’s lack of a dependable third pitch complicates his true outcome." Freeland's poor skills thus far seem to back up that assessment. ERA regression is in the cards for Freeland and so is a trip back to the minors. He’s simply not good enough.
The other pitcher here is Bronson Arroyo, who is the Jered Weaver of the NL. Weaver’s ERA/xERA split is 7.44/6.12 while Arroyo’s is 6.31/6.02. Arroyo has a BB/K split of 13/26 in 41 frames while Weaver’s split is 12/23 in 42 innings. Weaver’s average fastball is 83.6 MPH while Arroyo’s is 84.2. They have identical groundball rates of 34%. Weaver’s hr/f rate is 29% while Arroyo’s is lower but still high at 17%. The only difference is that Weaver pitches at a pitcher’s park in San Diego while Arroyo pitches at one of the friendliest hitter’s parks in the game. Arroyo has a job because Homer Bailey, Brandon Finnegan and Anthony DeSclafani remain out on the 60-day disabled list. When they get back, Arroyo will be on the “for the remainder of his life” DL.
Great American Ball Park is cozy, with 328 and 325-foot corners and 370-foot alleys and these dimensions combine with the shortage of foul territory to provide a hitter's haven on most days unless the wind is blowing strongly in. More often, though, a breeze from downtown blows through a gap behind home plate, providing a gentle but convenient wind tunnel that leads out to centerfield and into the Ohio River. The Air Density Index reading today is a favorable 62.08, which is in the same range as the past two days that provided scores of 12-6 and 12-8 respectively. This one also has the makings of one team scoring 12 and thus, it should once again be a game with a slew of crooked half innings by the time the starters are gone.
Cleveland -101 over HOUSTON
One of the angles foolish chalk bettors in baseball like to play is that the home team will not get swept, therefore the angle is to play that home team after losing the first two games of a three-game series. That would apply to the Astros here and while the Indians could lose this game for sure, if they do it will have ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with them winning the first two games of this series or because teams’ don’t get swept at home. It’s a lame angle that many have gone broke from. Think of a coin toss for example. If you flip a coin 20 times and it comes up tails each time or 20 in a row, what are the chances of it up coming up tails again on the 21st toss? If you said 50/50, you would be right because each toss is independent of itself. The same applies to baseball. The odds of the Astros winning today are exactly the same as they would be had this series been 1-1, 0-2 or 2-0 and to treat it as anything else would be foolish.
Joe Musgrove is 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA. This is a 24-year-old kid in his second season and he’s getting a bit too much credit because he plays for the Astros. No question that playing on a good team increases one’s value but the Indians are just as good as the Astronauts and we get the better pitcher. Musgrove went 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA in 62 innings for the Astros last year. This prospect posted a 2.74 ERA, 87/10 K/BB over 85 IP between AA-AAA prior to his August debut. Musgrove lost his big minor league groundball tilt in the transition and he now sits with a groundball rate of just 35% since he arrived here. His dominant start/disaster start slit since his arrival is also weak. Musgrove has skills and he also has an investable future with mid-rotation upside but he’s not there yet. Right now he’s just another risky proposition.
Danny Salazar is being sold short here. He’s also being sold or traded in a lot of fantasy leagues so his stock is very low, wh9ich makes us buyers. Salazar owns a horrible 5.66 ERA and 1.57 WHIP after eight starts but his skills remain some of the best in MLB with 13.5 K’s/9, a 3-1 BB/K ratio and a 17% swing and miss rate. Salazar’s 17% swing and miss rate confirms that his stuff remains electric but a high A 40% hit and 24% hr/f have killed him. A big correction to the good is coming for Salazar so now would be the time to buy.
Chicago +114 over SEATTLE
Derek Holland is not the target here. The target here is to fade Seattle’s Chris Heston, whom we will get to in a minute. Holland is a risk for sure but he has poise, experience and he’s by far more reliable than Heston will ever be. While we’re not buying Holland’s early season success, some of it does have merit. Holland has changed up his pitch mix. He’s throwing a lot fewer sinkers (16%, compared to 59% the past few years) in exchange for a knuckle curve that he is using more frequently (25% in 2017 ---8% -11% 2014-16). He’s refining his game as he goes along and we’ll trust him to last longer than his mound opponent.
After pitching a no-hitter for the Giants in June of 2015, Chris Heston’s season started to unravel and he’s not been the same since. August and September of that year produced a 5.88 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over 11 starts. A brief, late-August sojourn to the minors didn’t help and thus, Heston was pegged for a long relief role in 2016. After four appearances in which he gave up six runs with a 3/6 K/BB ratio, the Giants returned Heston to the rotation—in Triple-A Sacramento. In December, the Giants traded Heston to the M’s for a player to be named later. These types of deals are more or less favors. It’s like saying, you take this guy off our hands and we owe you a solid or it’s the repayment of a similar deal between GM’s. The pitching starved Giants wanted nothing to do with Chris Heston.
Heston throws 86 MPH, which is down three ticks from the 89 MPH he was throwing back in 2015. He has appeared in one game since being recalled and it was as ugly as ugly can be. This is a desperation move by a desperate franchise that is not likely to work out well. Most importantly, this mostly career minor league is not worthy of being the chalk on his best day.
Power Sports
Boston vs. Oakland
Pick: Boston
There are a number of series this weekend where the results have caught me by surprise, but none moreso than what's going on in Oakland where the lowly A's are on the verge of sweeping the mighty Red Sox. Well, perhaps Boston isn't that mighty after all? In fact, they've been the definition of mediocre so far w/ a .500 record and run diff of -1. The big issue (so far) this season is the decline in offensive production. But this is still a much better team than Oakland, who is second worst in the AL in run differential (-34). I cannot see a four-game sweep being pulled off this afternoon.
The BoSox send Eduardo Rodriguez to the bump Sunday as they'll look to extend their record to 6-2 when he starts this year. Rodriguez is currently working on a stretch of five consecutive quality starts. He's gone exactly six innings in all five while allowing just 8 ER. Four of those starts have seen him allow five hits or less and he's allowed just ONE home run. In his only previous start in this ballpark, he very nearly threw a no-hitter, going 7 2/3 IP w/o allowing a hit.
Lefties may be batting only .135 off Oakland starter Andrew Triggs, but this will be a rare start outside the AL West for him. In fact, this is just the third time the righty has gone against a non-division opponent. The last one did not go well as he conceded five runs in 5 1/3 IP. Expect Boston, who remains 13-7 off a loss this year, to snap its season-worst three-game skid.
Will Rogers
Colorado vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Colorado
The set-up: The rubber match of this three-game series between the Rockies and Reds goes early this afternoon at Cincinnati. There have been plenty of plenty fireworks in the first two contests, as the winning team has produced 12 runs in each of the first two games. Colorado won 12-6 on Friday, followed by Cincinnati's 12-8 victory on Saturday. The first-place Rockies (27-17) are trying to avoid their first series loss since dropping three of four at home against Washington from April 24-27, as they are 5-0-1 in series since then. As for Cincinnati, the Reds snapped a seven-game skid with Saturday’s win and sit at 20-22 on the season, 4 1/2 games back of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.
The pitching matchup: Kyle Freeland (4-2 & 3.13 ERA) goes for Colorado and Bronson Arroyo (3-3 & 6.31 ERA) for Cincinnati. Freeland didn’t have his best stuff last time out but won 7-3 last Tuesday at Minnesota, allowing three runs in six innings. That makes it five straight quality starts for the young pitcher and and the Rockies are 6-2 with him on the mound, overall (plus-$501 vs. the moneyline). Arroyo continues to serve up too many "long balls," having allowed 11 HRs over 41 1/3innings, including at least one in seven of his eight starts. He was tagged for two HRs when he permitted five runs on eight hits over five innings in a 9-5 loss at the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday. Arroyo is 5-4 with a 5.00 ERA in 15 games (13 starts / teams are 6-7) against the Rockies.
The pick: This is Freeland's first start against the Reds but he has taken advantage of his opportunities to pitch outside of Coors Field, going 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four road starts (Rockies are a perfect 4-0). Meanwhile, Arroyo is seemingly at "the end of his rope," after missing the previous two seasons with arm troubles. It's been a rough go so far in 2017 and it isn't likely to get better here vs. Colorado.
Zack Cimini
Cleveland vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
Consecutive home losses to the Indians have devalued today's money line value for the Astros. Pitching consists of struggling veteran Danny Salazar against the unsettled talented young pitcher in Joe Musgrove. Look for Musgrove to build off consecutive wins and for the Astros to win Sunday
Harry Bondi
BOSTON (-105) over Oakland
We cashed a winning ticket for our “Steam Team” members yesterday on Oakland over Boston, but today we turn the tables and get on the Sox. Manager John Farrell saved his bullpen yesterday, choosing not to use any of the key arms with the hopes of salvaging the final game of the series today. Starter Eduardo Rodriguez has very quietly been one of Boston’s best starters, posting a 3.12 ERA and in his lone career start vs the A’s last year he tossed eight shutout innings. Let’s take the better offense, better starting pitcher and more rested bullpen at a bargain of a price.
Dwayne Bryant
Boston at Oakland
Play: Over 8
Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez owns a high BB% of 10.4%, and a poor 4.06 xFIP. Oakland's Andrew Triggs also owns a poor xFIP of 4.05. Boston has averaged a healthy 5.1 runs in 17 road games against righties, while Oakland has averaged an even better 6 runs per game in 8 home games against lefties. We also have Mike Muchlinski behind the plate, and the OVER is 7-2 with him calling balls & strikes this season. The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, and 7-3 in the last 10 matchups in Oakland.
Buster Sports
Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Play: Ottawa +180
We have a real live dog with the Ottawa Senators today in Pittsburgh. The Senators have played great hockey in this series and could easily be leading this series with a bit of luck. There is a ton of pressure on the Penguins to win today especially at home and the Senators know if they can get the jump on them they will have a good chance to win the series back in Ottawa on Tuesday night. The Senators split the first two games in Pittsburgh and this game will go right down to the wire like the first two in Pittsburgh. The oddsmaker has Pittsburgh at a minus 210 favorite and we are going to be the contrarian today and go with the HUGE underdog.
Wunderdog
Colorado @ Cincinnati
Pick: Colorado +109
The Colorado bullpen had a rare meltdown on Saturday, but the Rockies still are 14-7 on the road, and look to bounce back with Kyle Freeland on the mound in Sunday's matchup. Colorado has won six of Freeland's eight starts, including a 6-3 win at Minnesota on Tuesday when he gave up three runs and five hits in six innings. The left-hander is 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA on the season and has allowed more than three earned runs only once. Bronson Arroyo is attempting to make a comeback this year, but hasn't had much success, and hasn't pitched as well as his 3-3 record indicates. Arroyo has a 6.31 ERA and has enjoyed a lot of run support, however, he lost his last outing, 9-5, to the Cubs when he allowed five runs and eight hits in five innings. The Rockies have won five of their last six after a loss, and the Reds have lost seven of their last eight games overall.
Dave Essler
Houston Astros -115 First Five Innings
We were right about Cleveland yesterday Musgrove kills me, Salazar does, too. What I really like here is the Astros F5. I think that Houston will get "some" off of Salazar and the Indians haven't seen Musgrove so he should have the advantage early. It's not like Cleveland knocked the cover off the ball yesterday, either. That F5 takes the Indians bullpen out of the equation.
Brad Wilton
Sunday's free play will be to lay whatever you have to lay with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The # 1 seed in the East, the Boston Celtics had home court edge in this series, and that lasted all of about 8 minutes, as Cleveland has beaten them like a drum up and down the court.
The Cavaliers have humiliated the Celtics 2 times already, and are 5-1 straight up in this year's season series versus Boston, covering in each of the last 3.
Boston's main gun, Isaiah Thomas is now out with a hip strain that forced him to leave the game early on Friday. It really doesn't matter, as he wasn't a factor in either loss in Boston.
Cleveland is 10-0 straight up this postseason, and has now covered 8 straight in the playoffs.
Expect another blowout in Game 3 on Sunday night.
Cavaliers by 18 points minimum.
3* CLEVELAND
Jack Brayman
My free pick for today is on the Atlanta Braves, getting a big number at home from the Washington Nationals.
Atlanta shocked the Nationals last night, sending them to their fourth straight defeat. Now, catching a big number, I say why not take a chance here with a live underdog.
I won't list pitchers. After all, why would I care if Washington's Stephen Strasburg gets scratched? Am I worried? Not in baseball, where anything can happen on any given day. Just look how the Braves took care of Max Scherzer last night in this series.
The Braves showed us resiliency Friday night by scoring three times in the eighth inning for a 7-4 victory, and then beat Washington 5-2 last night.
Atlanta beat the Nationals for just the sixth time in their past 24 meetings. That, too, could provide a little motivation.
Washington is explosive and dangerous, I get it. But when it is slumping, you take advantage of prices and take a shot.
I'll do so with the Braves.
2* BRAVES
Jeff Benton
Sunday comp play is the Over in the Rockies and Reds.
Yesterday, these teams combined for 20 runs, that after combining for 18 runs on Friday night. Both games easily making there way Over the total.
That makes 6 of the last 7 between the teams having landed Over the total dating back to last season.
The Rockies enter Sunday's series finale with 4 of their last 6 Over the posted price, while the Reds have played Overs in each of their last 6 games.
Your starters are Kyle Freeland and Bronson Arroyo, and while 7 of Freeland's 8 season starts have landed Under the total, Arroyo has seen 6 of his 8 starts play Over the total.
With both teams tearing the cover off the baseball, I say play the Over in the Rockies and Reds this afternoon from Great American Ballpark.
4* COLORADO-CINCINNATI OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Sunday is the Tampa Bay Rays, as I'm taking them once again, after hitting them with my 75 Dimer yesterday.
The Rays are suddenly playing a decent brand of baseball, and today they're laying a value price at home against the New York Yankees. Riding a four-game win streak, I'll play the home chalk, as the Rays should have no trouble today.
I'm not listing pitchers because I don't really care who goes, but I can tell you I don't mind going against aging veteran C.C. Sabathia, who steps to the hill after bouncing back from a stretch of three rough outings. While he looked good in 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the Royals in his last start, he's still struggled more times than not this season. And now he gets a red-hot Rays team that is swinging scorching bats right now.
During this four-game win streak, the Rays have outscored the Indians and Yankees by a combined final of 27-17. During a 5-1 run against the aforementioned two teams, and the Red Sox, Tampa Bay has outscored its foes 45-27.
The Yankees have lost their last three games, and now play their sixth road game in as many nights.
Great spot for the Rays.
4* RAYS
John Martin
Nationals vs. Braves
Play: Nationals -1.5
I expect the Washington Nationals to end their current 4-game losing streak with a win Sunday against the Atlanta Braves. They certainly do not want swept by their division rivals here. And Stephen Strasburg is back to being his dominant self this season. He is 4-1 with a 3.42 ERA in eight starts and 3-0 with a 2.80 ERA in four road starts. Jaime Garcia, who is 1-2 with a 4.65 ERA in seven starts, is no match for him Sunday. The Nationals are 19-3 in Strasburg's last 22 starts in the first half of the season, and they are winning by 2.6 runs per game on average. The Nationals are also 24-3 in Strasburg's 27 Sunday starts in his career, winning these games by 3.5 runs per game.