Free Picks for Thursday, July 20th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
YANKEES AT MARINERS
PLAY: YANKEES -115
These haven’t been the best of times for the Yankees. But I see the Yanks with a good opportunity to kick off their weekend set at Safeco with a win against the Mariners.
Luis Severino still has some inconsistency but there isn’t much question this hard throwing righty has top shelf stuff and can be very dominant.
I’m afraid the dame can no longer be said for Felix Hernandez. King Felix is now living in the 90 MPH neighborhood with his fastball. That’s not to say he can’t still be be very difficult at times. But I also think it’s fair to offer Hernandez is now a finesse guy who really needs to command his stuff and hit his spots.
The Yankees have strengthened themselves with the deal with the White Sox that brought Todd Frazier and David Robertson to the team. Frazier is unlikely to hit for average but he’s got plenty of sock and is definitely a third base upgrade over Chase Headley. As for Robertson, he’s back with his original organization and is a nice add to the Yankees bullpen. Robertson was having a solid season with the Chisox and I like the way he slots in as a high leverage setup man for Aroldis Chapman. There’s always a little concern when a closer moves to an organization where he becomes a complementary piece. But on paper, there’s no question this is a plus pickup for the Yankees is their quest to make this season’s playoffs.
As for tonight’s matchup, I see the price being a little cheaper than it ought to be based on my projections. I’ll tab the Yankees as the Thursday free play.
Scott Rickenbach
Cardinals vs. Mets
Play: Under 9
The under is a perfect 3-0 in Lance Lynn's last 3 starts. The Cardinals right-hander has compiled a stellar 0.96 ERA during this strong stretch. He'll be opposed by Seth Lugo in this one. The Mets right-hander has had some ups and downs in limited action as a starter this season but the fact is that Lugo has produced a quality start (6 innings or more and allowing 3 earned runs or less) in 4 of his 6 starts this season. I successfully used the over in yesterday's match-up but that was all about the starting pitching. Prior to that game the under was a 6-0-1 in the Cards last 7 games! Also, prior to yesterday's explosion at the plate, the Mets had scored a total of just 7 runs in their 3 previous games! The under is 5-1 in Lynn's 6 starts against New York in his career and he has compiled a solid 2.37 ERA against the Mets in those outings. Lugo pitched 5 shutout innings in his lone career start versus St Louis and I am looking for more of the same here. The under is 8-3 in the Cardinals last 11 games versus teams with a losing record on the season.
Andrew Marchenko
T Monteiro vs. A Ramos-Vinolas
Play: T Monteiro +1½ +115
Monteiro is an exclusively clay player. He does not have a strong serve or powerful strokes and therefore his tennis is suitable only for clay courts. Ramos is more universal style player but he, as any other Spanish player, prefers clay as well. Ramos is a better player here but he is not in his best shape right now. Ramos likes to have 3 set games, he has more wins in 3 sets than in 2 sets this year. Monteiro is not an easy opponent to beat in two sets. Knowing how Ramos likes to make the life difficult for himself and seeing that he is not in best conditions right now, I can predict that Monteiro will be able to at least win 1 set in this match
Stephen Nover
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Play: Blue Jays +113
Doug Fister had a decent eight-year big league career pitching from 2009-2016. Oh wait. Fister is still pitching. That's a mistake.
Fister goes for the Red Sox today and that puts me on the underdog Blue Jays.
Boston made a leap of faith picking Fister up from the waiver wire. They should have left him there. Fister has made four appearances for Boston, including three starts. The results are an 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA. Fister has lost eight consecutive decisions. That's Charlie Brown type stuff.
Three of Toronto's big bats - Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales - are a combined 19-for-48 against Fister.
Now to get an underdog price we have to deal with a few facts. Boston is 29-17 at Fenway for the best home mark in the American League. The Blue Jays aren't playing well either. They also are pitching Francisco Liriano. The only consistent thing about Liriano is his inconsistency.
However, the Blue Jays have scored at least four runs in eight of their last 12 games. They do figure to put up a good share of runs against Fister.
Liriano certainly is capable of big games. He actually has a great record in stopping a losing streak. Toronto is 8-1 the past nine times Liriano has pitching following a loss. The Blue Jays also are 8-3 during Liriano's last 11 starts.
The spot is good, too, for the Blue Jays. The Red Sox have to be a little fatigued and distracted. This marks their seventh game in six days with two of those games going 15 and 16 innings. Following this game, the Red Sox head out to the West Coast for six games.
So given these circumstances and pitching matchup, I'll take a shot with the Blue Jays at a plus price.
Marc Lawrence
San Diego at San Francisco
Play: San Diego +185
Edges - Padres: 5-1 last 6 games here; and Chacin 3-0 team starts vs the Dodgers this season… Giants: 1-8 on Thursdays this season; and Bumgarner 0-5 overall team starts this season. With Bumgarner still a maiden this season, we’ll fade him as $2.00 chalk tonight. We recommend a 1* play on San Diego.
Art Aronson
Rangers vs. Orioles
Play: Under 10
Cole Hamels: He’s 4-0 with a 3.05 ERA. Hamels most recently went 7.2 shutout innings in a no-decision against KC on Saturday. It was the second consecutive start in which the Rangers’ leftie has thrown 7.2 scoreless innings, dropping his ERA to 1.26 in July and raising his K:BB to 12:1 in the same span.
Wade Miley: He’s 4-8 with a 5.40 ERA. Miley is coming off a poor outing and for the most part has been a disappointment this season, going just 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.63 ERA in Baltimore thus far.
The bottom line: This play however is based primarily on the dominance of Hamels, as we fully expect the southpaw to carry his recent form over into this one. Also note that Texas has seen the total go UNDER the number in 26 of 45 this year against clubs with losing records, while Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER in 18 of 28 this season against left-handed starters.
Ben Burns
Yankees vs. Mariners
Play: Under 8½
New York turns to Luis Severino (5-4, 3.40 ERA) on Thursday night and he most recently gave up one run off four hits while posting six K’s over seven innings of work against Boston on Saturday, very unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his fine effort. Severino has posted consecutive quality starts and is 2-1 with a 3.02 ERA on the road this year. Seattle counters with Felix Hernandez (5-3, 4.20) who gave up three runs (just one earned) while stirking out five over five innings in a victory over the White Sox on Saturday (he’s 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA at home.) Recent form displayed by these starter’s suggests we’ll have a “pitchers duel” on our hands in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
San Diego vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -1.5
The Giants should coast here at home with Bumgarner on the mound. He is 10-3 here vs SD and has revenge against Chacin and the Padres for a loss last week in SD. Chacin has a dismal 8+ road Era this season. To the database we see that home favorites like SF that are off a +140 or higher home dog win with a total of 9 or less are 9-0 winning by over 3 runs per game since 2004 vs an opponent like the Padres that arrive off a +140 or higher road dog loss . Play on the Giants to win by more than 1 run.
Will Rogers
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Pick:Kansas City +110
The set-up: The Tigers scored 19 runs in the first two contests of their four-game series with the Royals and entered Wednesday's game on a four-game winning streak while scoring a total of 36 runs. However, the Detroit bats were mostly quiet last night and a two-run HR in the ninth still left them on the losing side of a 4-3 final. For Kansas City, the Royals won for just the second time in nine overall contests but did move to within two games of AL Central-leading Cleveland. The teams wrap up the four-game series tonight.
The pitching matchup: Michael Fulmer (10-6 & 3.06 ERA) gets the nod for Detroit and Danny Duffy (5-6, & 3.51 ERA) for Kansas City. Fulmer was the 2016 AL rookie of the year but his sophomore season was "stuck in neutral" until this current four-start winning streak. He's 4-0 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his last four outings after allowing one run and only two hits in eight innings of an 11-1 rout versus Toronto. Fulmer is 2-2 with a 2.29 ERA in five career stars vs. KC (Tigers are 3-2). Duffy lost his second straight outing and third in four starts on Saturday, despite yielding one run and five hits in 8 1/3 innings of a 1-0 setback versus Texas. Duffy is 5-7 with a 3.80 ERA in 16 career starts vs. Detroit (teams are 7-9).
The pick: The Tigers may be just 43-50 but they are still only five games back of the Indians in the division. Fulmer is in a groove but Detroit is a poor 18-29 on the road this season, allowing 5.26 RPG. I'm on the home team in this one.
Zack Cimini
Texas vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
Perhaps no starting pitcher has been as sporadic as the Orioles Wade Miley. Thursday, he’ll have to contend against red-hot Cole Hamels of the Rangers. In his last three starts Hamels has allowed just nine hits combined and two runs. Yet, the Orioles are a rare team that you can back with confidence following a double-digit run performance.
Brandon Shively
Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -128
The Pirates are playing with a lot of momentum and they have a very good young pitcher on the mound here in Jameson Taillon. The Brewers overachieved for a long time this year, and they are finally coming back to earth a bit. The Pirates underachieved for a long time and now we are seeing the potential of the Pirates. Their potential is much higher with Starling Marte back in the lineup too. This is a fair price to lay on a team playing with this much confidence.
Bruce Marshall
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Pick: Milwaukee
The Brewers have blown leads each of the past two nights and now need to win this game on Thursday afternoon to avoid a 4-game sweep at PNC Park. But starter Jimmy Nelson has been the most reliable component in the Milwaukee rotations, allowing only 25 earned runs in his last 87 IP over 14 games. Meanwhile, the Bucs' only loss in six since the All-Star break was in the game Jameson Taillon started last Saturday vs. the Cards.
Jim Feist
Tigers at Royals
Pick: Under
Detroit has a strong starter going in Mike Fulmer (10-6, 3.06 ERA) with batters hitting .229 off him. He has a 2.25 road ERA. The Tigers parted ways with outfielder J.D. Martinez by shipping him to Arizona for a trio of prospects on Tuesday. They face a weak Kansas City offense that is #27 in runs scored, #29 on-base percentage. The pitching is #14 in team ERA (4.29) and the defense in the field is #1 in fewest errors made. Chicago has a strong starter of its own in Dan Duffy (5-6, 3.51 ERA), off 1-0 loss to Texas despite a great game. Has a 2.41 ERA at home and the under is 37-18-2 under when Duffy is pitching at home.
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Baltimore
Pick: Texas
Texas and Baltimore share identical records (45-49) but the teams hardly look in the same league with the Rangers riding a four-game losing streak overall, which includes losing the first three of this four-game set while getting outscored by the Orioles 25-4. The Orioles were once 22-10 this season but even three straight wins can't hide the fact that the team is only 23-39 since that good start.
Cole Hamels (4-0, 3.05 ERA) had an ugly outing in his first start following a stint of nearly two months on the disabled list, allowing seven ERs in just 4.1 innings at Cleveland on June 26. However, he has quickly re-established himself as the ace of the staff, as he carries a streak of 21 scoreless innings into Thursday's start. Hamels has allowed only a two-run HR over his last three outings, going 2-0 with an 0.82 ERA (Rangers are 3-0).
Wade Miley (4-8, 5.40) starts for Baltimore and is 1-4 over his last five outings, after getting rocked by the Chicago Cubs in his first start after the break when he gave up seven runs on nine hits and four walks over 4 2/3 innings. Miley is just 1-5 (5.75 ERA) in seven career starts against Texas (teams are 2-5).
Hamels does not own a good LT mark vs Baltimore (he's 1-3 with a 4.32 ERA in five starts / teams are 2-3) but he's in excellent forma and I'll back him as Texas avoids the dreaded four-game sweep.