Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, August 26th, 2016

DAVE COKIN

CUBS AT DODGERS
PLAY: CUBS F5

Starting pitcher play here, with lefty Mike Montgomery facing Bud Norris. Beyond the pitching matchup, I like the scheduling spot here, as the Dodgers have the Wednesday finale in a very big series with the Giants. Meanwhile, the Cubs just laughed their way to a snap sweep against the Padres, enjoyed a day off, and should be geared up for a duel with one of the only teams that really figures to be able to challenge them come October.

Montgomery has done nice work in a couple of spot starts for the Cubs. I don’t think he’ll go past five innings here, six max. But he’s got a good chance of containing an LA lineup that is decidedly less daunting against lefties.

Things could change once the bullpen gets involved, as that’s when the Cubs righties will get involved, at least prior to Chapman if it’s a save situation. I’m also leery of the late game heroics the Dodgers have been displaying lately. Some respect for Bud Norris, who is capable of having a hot game. But I’m taking Montgomery to outpitch him early so I’ll go F5 on the Cubs.

Sleepyj

Steelers / Saints Over 44.5

A game in which the role players will play a decent amount has me on the over for this one....Saints defense hasn't been good for a decent amount of time now..I doubt it has gotten a big upgrade from the last few years...Steelers don't care much about the preseason, but only 17 points this preseason might give them reason to force the issue...The starters have contributed next to nothing this preseason and some momentum going into the preseason finale would be wise IMO....Saints might actually benefit from a vanilla game plan from time to time from the Pitt defense...Pitt defensive teams has much more work then the offense..Keeping them healthy might be the way to go here for Tomlin..I expect the Pitt defense to rest guys a little earlier here..Both teams like to pass and I think we see plenty of that here..Weakness for these teams is the pass defense...Last year Pitt ranked 3rd worst at 30th in the league...Saints ranked 2nd worst at 31st in the league..I didn't see much of an upgrade in those areas to think they improve enough to make them jump up big this year..Small wager for myself here...I'm ready for the regular season already !!

Rob Vinciletti

Patriots vs. Panthers
Play: Patriots +3½

The Patriots are 7-1 ats off a win vs a team off a win by 10 or more points. Carolina has failed to cover all 6 games in the Preseason series with New England and they are 0-8 to the spread in their first NFLX Home game vs AFC teams. Game 3 teams off back to back wins are 20-8 to the spread vs a team off a spread loss. We will take the 3-4 points with New England tonight.

Jack Jones

New York Yankees -113

The New York Yankees had yesterday off, while the Baltimore Orioles completed their 4-game series with the Washington Nationals Thursday. That's a nice edge in rest, plus the Yankees are chasing down the Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League, so this is a very important series for them.

I look for the Yankees to take advantage of their rest and get the job done in Game 1 tonight. I also like what I saw from Luis Cessa in his first start on August 20 as he pitched 6 shutout innings while allowing only 4 base runners in a 5-1 road victory over the Angels.

I'll gladly fade Yovani Gallardo, who is 4-5 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in 17 starts, including 2-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.656 WHIP in 10 road starts. Gallardo is also 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.297 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees.

The Yankees are 34-15 (+20.6 Units) against the money line after three straight games where they committed no errors over the last two seasons. Baltimore is 36-59 (-20.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 0-5 in Gallardo's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 2-8 in its last 10 vs. AL East opponents. New York is 11-4 in the last 15 home meetings in this series.

Dave Price

Houston Astros -138

The Houston Astros have won 5 of their last 6 games overall and had Thursday off. The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off back-to-back wins over the Boston Red Sox and are primed for a letdown here, and they didn't have Thursday off like the Astros. Mike Fiers has been on his game at home this season, going 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 12 starts. Fiers is also 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in one lifetime start vs. Tampa Bay, which came in a 4-3 victory on June 11 this season. Drew Smyly has been awful on the road for the Rays, going 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 12 starts. Smyly has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 2.350 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against them. The Rays are 7-20 in their last 27 road games. The Astros are 26-9 in their last 35 vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in Smyly's last 5 road starts. The Astros are 5-1 in Fiers' last 6 home starts.

3G-Sports

Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins -2.5

Ronald Darby is a talented DB, but has had some problems jumping routes too early, finding himself playing chase - and DeSean Jackson can obviously make big time plays when given the chance. Darby will fight for the football and has no problem banging to make any QB think twice before throwing the ball. But, DeSean Jackson has more speed and will chew up space, fast. The Skins need some time to get their running game back again. They have struggled to get things moving on the inside with consistency. Washington has put up meager numbers over the last 4 games on the ground, but I trust their offensive line coach Bill Callahan to get the most from his line here. Losing their RB1, Matt Jones, is bad news, but I expect Chris Thompson to pick up the slack. Bills are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games and I like Washington to take care of business on Friday night at home in Pre-season WEEK 3 action.

Mike Anthony

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -2

Sean Payton blitzes at odd times, and when he does, it confuses opponents. Pittsburgh has to be aware of the blitz pickup, and I don't trust them to be. With the noise level in New Orleans, it is always a tricky place to play. DeAngelo Williams has to stay focused to help out when Cameron Jordan and James Laurinaitis fire. Ross Cockrell has to turn and run when he gets covering Michael Thomas. He won't, and Thomas will get separation from Cockrell. When he does that, Drew Brees will open it up. Brees is always putting up big numbers in home games, no different here. Thomas has some good looks for the pre-season. Saints are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf New Orleans wins giving the 2 points.

Jim Feist

Seattle at Chicago
Pick: Under

This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of ace square off. Seattle is 10-3 under the total against the American League Central division. The Mariners go with ace Felix Hernandez (8-4, 3.26 ERA), who allowed two runs on seven hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in eight innings Saturday in a win against the Brewers. Seattle is 6-2 under the total when he gets 5 days of rest and the Mariners are 15-5 under against the AL Central. He faces a bad Chicago offense, #27 in runs scored and the under is 20-6-1 when the White Sox battle the AL West. Ace Chris Sale (15-6, 3.15 ERA) is also off a great game, allowing just three hits over eight scoreless innings Saturday against Oakland. He walked three and struck out eight in the win. The Under is 16-7 in Sale's last 23 home starts.

Robert Ferringo

Tampa Bay (-4) over Cleveland

Here we have the worst team in the entire league heading down to Florida, where I expect them to get their asses kicked. Cleveland is by far the worst team that I have scouted this fall. This team is pathetic, and I think they will wilt in the South Florida heat. This is Tampa Bay's first home game this season, and I think that they will get a big boost from the home crowd. The big news is that Cleveland is getting Josh Gordon back for this game. But he hasn't played in two years, and his impact should be minimal. Tampa Bay's starters have looked awful the first two weeks of this season. They should be focused. And new head coach Dirk Koetter should be motivated to get that first win in front of the home crowd. The Browns have lost SU and ATS in both of their preseason games, and I don't see anything changing here.

Strike Point Sports

Baltimore / New York Over 9.5

The Orioles are still battling for the American League East crown with Boston and Toronto, while the Yankees are still holding out hope for a wild-card spot, so this will be a very important Game 1 of this series. Yovani Gallardo will be pitching for the O's, and he still hasn't figured out things on the road as he is 2-4 with a 6.14 ERA, and in four of his last seven starts on the road double digit runs scored combined have been the result. He was touched up for 5 runs in his only start against the Yankees this season, and I can see him allowing some in this matchup. Luis Cessa is the scheduled starter for New York, and he has been thrust into a starters role for the Yankees. Cessa has an ERA of 7.11 in 5 relief appearances in the Bronx spanning 8.2 innings while allowing three home runs over those contests. I think Baltimore will be able to take advantage of this matchup seeing how they lead all of baseball in home runs with 192. This matchup seems to favor the offenses, which I believe will lead to this contest going over.

Chase Diamond

Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Play: Cleveland

The Browns come into this game 0-2 off a loss at home to the Falcons 24-13 the Buccaneers are 1-1 and beat a tough Jags team on the road last week. This is the best week to bet the preseason because it is a dress rehearsal for the starters and gives us the best betting week as well. Most people would auto bet the Bucs off a big road win and playing their home opener but not me. Since 1998 teams that NFL teams playing their home openers are an awful 1-17 6% ATS vs. winless foes with a record of 0-2 or worse. Public money on this game is around 50% but we are seeing this line go to +3 in some spots as I write this.

John Ryan

Philadelphia at New York
Play: Philadelphia +175

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 116-100 since 1997 good for 53.7% winners and made 58.2 units/unit wagered. Play against home teams (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season-NL. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Philly is 12-5 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season; 36-31 (+16.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 47-41 (+21.2 Units) against the money line revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons. NY Mets are 24-28 (-19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season; 29-36 (-18.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season: 9-15 (-13.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season; 8-14 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season. Colon's team's record is 2-10 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Mets are 1-8 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series. Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 Friday games.

Fundamental Discussion Points: Morgan yielded one run on five hits and two walks across six frames his last time out. Opponents are batting .320 against Colon this month. Phillies 2B Cesar Hernandez is 14-for-33 over his last nine contests and has homered in three of his last six games after doing so only twice over his first 114. Take Philadelphia Phillies.

David Banks

Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5

The Browns have yet to win a preseason game, but new head coach Hue Jackson and Cleveland fans are optimistic about the upcoming regular season. It appears that Jackson may have resurrected the career of QB Robert Griffin III. The beleaguered former Redskins quarterback was 6-for-8 for 96 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2’s loss to Atlanta.

RG III is not the only Browns player looking for redemption. Terrelle Pryor, now wide receiver Terrelle Pryor, could start for Cleveland on the outside. He is an intriguing athlete who was on the receiving end of one of Griffin’s touchdowns last week. Tight end Gary Barnidge, who caught Griffin’s other TD last week, is a bonafide star. If Jackson can find some semblance of a running game, he may have something.

In Tampa, new head coach Dirk Koetter is still wondering when his quarterback, Jameis Winston, is going to get moving. Winston didn’t play much last week against Jacksonville and was just 3-of-10. He, along with the rest of the starting offense, will get plenty of reps on Friday night against the Browns. Facing the Browns 3-4 defense is something Koetter is looking forward to since the Bucs will face their fair share of such defenses this season.

Koetter is also hopeful that Tampa Bay can get through Friday night without any serious injuries on the offensive line. J.R. Sweezy, the team’s left guard, has been out since the offseason, and right guard Ali Marpet did not practice Wednesday and was wearing a boot on his right ankle. The Bucs did get rookie OT Caleb Benenoch back after missing a month with an ankle injury.

Both teams will play their starters for most of the first half. The Browns are expected to play both Josh Gordon and Baylor rookie Corey Coleman at wide receiver on Friday. Both will be making their preseason debuts.

Buster Sports

Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers +128

The Rangers and Indians continue their 4 game series in Texas tonight after the Rangers shut the Indians out last night 9-0. The Indians are in a little bit of a freefall losing 3 in a row. Tonight they send RH Corey Kluber (13-8, 3.13 ERA) to the hill and he goes up against the Rangers LH Martin Perez (8-9, 4.27 ERA) The former Cy Young winner has had a good year for the Indians although on the road he is sporting a 3.72 ERA with a WHIP of 0.98. He faced these Rangers at home on May 31st and gave up 6 runs in 7 innings. With Kluber on the road for this start, we see a nice edge with the Rangers. As for Perez he has been excellent at home. In 13 starts he has a 7-1 record with a 2.36 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.25. We see some great value in getting plus money with the Rangers so we will take it. Backing our selection is the fact that the Rangers are 10-1 in Perez's last 11 home starts.