Scott Spreitzer
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -117
Ryan Vogelsong is making another comeback, this time after being hit in the face by a pitch in May, and he's had three out of four quality starts in August. Vogelsong allowed three runs and three hits in six innings his last outing. Pittsburgh lost his three best pitched games due to scoring a total of four runs and won his other start 8-5 at San Francisco when he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. Matt Garza is 4-5 with a 5.27 ERA and he comes off a game in which he was knocked around for six runs (five earned) and nine hits in 3 2/3 innings although Milwaukee managed to win at Seattle 7-6 on Sunday. In two appearances against the Pirates this season, Garza has allowed seven runs (five earned) and 12 hits in 10 innings. Pittsburgh beat the Brewers 3-2 in 10 innings on Thursday for its fifth road win in a row. Meanwhile, the Brewers have won just 3 of Garza's 13 starts against teams with a winning record.
Jimmy Boyd
Cal vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii
We are seeing some great value here with the Rainbow Warriors catching almost 3 TD’s. The books really have no choice here but to inflate this line. The betting public has a horrible time backing teams like Hawaii, who have been so bad for so long. On top of that, the Warriors only managed 17.6 ppg last year, while giving up 35.6 ppg. However, I believe we are going to see major improvements offensively in 2016 for Hawaii. New head coach Nick Rolovich is bringing back the spread attack. Something the team thrived with when he was the OC here back on 2010 and 2011. It's also had success the last 4 years in Nevada. You also have to take into consideration that Cal is not a great defensive team. The Bears allowed 30.7 ppg and 454 ypg last year. They only have 4 starters back on that side of the ball, with each of their top 6 tacklers no longer around. The big question is how will Hawaii’s defense keep Cal’s high-powered offense in check. Well, it will help that the Bears will no longer have Jared Goff at quarterback. Losing the No. 1 overall pick in the draft is going to have negative impact on the offense. Cal did bring in Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb, but he’s no Goff. Keep in mind that the Bears are installing a new offense. However, the biggest key is the weapons lost at receiver. Cal’s top 6 passing options from last year are all gone. There’s going to be little chemistry between Webb and the new starters. Lastly, you have to remember where this game is being played. This is a long way for both teams to travel. You also have to factor in that teams aren’t typically sharp in their opener away from home. The sloppier the game, the better chance Hawaii has of sticking around and keeping it close. Rainbow Warriors are 21-8 ATS in the first 2 weeks of the season since 1992. That includes 5 straight covers in their opener. All against Pac-12 teams.
Wunderdog
Dallas @ Phoenix
Pick: Dallas +6
Dallas likes to run, at fourth in the WNBA in points scored, and fifth in rebounding. Forward Glory Johnson (13.2 points, 9.8 rebounds per game) got plenty of time to rest after breaking her toe, and is back at practice and expects to play. Dallas is only 1.5 games behind Phoenix for the final playoff spot, so this is a big contest. The Phoenix Mercury are a weak rebounding team, #10 in the league, and worse defensively, at #11 in points allowed. Phoenix is 5-11-1 ATS when playing on three or more days of rest, plus 8-20-1 ATS against a team with a losing straight-up record. Dallas has won all the meetings with Phoenix this season, including a 77-74 win when they last met on July 5. Phoenix has failed to cover six of its last seven home games, plus is 4-9 ATS against the Western Conference.
Jimmy Boyd
Rays at Astros
Pick: Under 8
I really like the value here on the UNDER in today's total for the series opener between the Rays and Astros. The starting pitching matchup might not seem like one that would lead to a pitcher's duel, but both starters are in a prime spot to succeed.
Tampa Bay will send out Drew Smyly, who is finally throwing up to his potential. Smyly has strung together 6 straight quality outings and has given up 2 runs or less in 5 of those. That includes a road start at Toronto. He has 141 strikeouts in 144 innings of work and should be able to take advantage of the free-swinging Astros lineup. Houston counters with Michael Fiers, who just allowed 1 run on 5 hits with 7 strikeouts in 7 innings at Baltimore in his last outing. He's also been at his best at home, where he's 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 12 starts. He faced the Rays once earlier this season and allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits in 7 innings.
UNDER is 20-9 in the Astros last 29 home games off a win and 11-1 in their last 12 home games after a win by 2 runs or less. UNDER is also 13-2 in the Rays last 15 after 3 straight games where the bullpen didn't allow a run.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is Cal and Hawaii to put some points on the board tonight in college football!
Since the Golden Bears allowed 30.7 points per game last year, and since they do return a bunch of talent on offense - minus #1 draft pick Jared Goff - my inclination is to look for an Over Down Under on Friday night.
The Cal offense will now be run by graduate transfer Davis Webb who will also have a new offensive coordinator piloting the attack. It's an attack that has plenty of weapons receiving the football, and should be able to exploit the inexperienced Hawaii defense and new coordinator Kevin Lempa.
As for the Rainbow Warriors, they have a new coach in Tim Rolovich who used to be their QB back in '00-'01. At least the Bo's do have an experienced offensive line that will protect their 5th year senior signal-caller, Iakaika Woolsley long enough to give him a chance to get some points cranking for the massive underdog.
California has played 8 of their last 10 neutral site games Over the total, while Hawaii ended last season with 5 straight Overs.
The Aussies are in for some scoring tonight, play California and Hawaii Over the total.
3* CALIFORNIA-HAWAII OVER
Power Sports
New England vs. Carolina
Pick: Under
Tom Brady (who is suspended for the first 4 regular season games) will reportedly play tonight. Certainly, he'll want to make some sort of impact. But I don't know how long we'll be seeing him considering the goal should be getting Jimmy Garappolo ready for the season opener against Arizona. I think Brady's involvement could actually have a bit of an adverse effect on the Pats offense tonight (I know that sounds crazy!) as they go up against the defending NFC Champion Panthers.
Let's get something out of the way, right off the bat. Carolina won't be matching last year's 15-1 SU record here in 2016. There have only been a handful of teams to win that many regular season games in NFL history and on average they regress by about four wins the following seasons. Still, both of these teams should be considered heavy favorites to win their respective divisions.
Combined, the Over is 4-0 for these two teams in the preseason. But the total here is obviously higher with it being "dress rehearsal week." The Panthers' two games both snuck over relatively low totals, averaging 41.5 PPG. New England has had no problem putting points on the board (28.5 PPG), but both games were played at home. I look for this one to stay Under the total.
Brandon Shively
California vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +20
This game is being played on a neutral in Australia. I don’t think that this neutral field will benefit either team so I am going to exploit the head to head matchup here. Cal is a team that went 9-27 combined from 2012 to 2014 before winning 8 games last year, behind a QB (Goff) that got drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. This is also a Cal team that has only been a favorite away from home 3 times in the last 4 years. Cal lost their top 6 receivers and 5 of their top 6 tacklers. While Cal will have a reliable QB in Davis Webb from Texas Tech, he doesn’t have a lot of talent around him and it will take time for Webb to get in sync with these new receivers. I will also note that Cal has a new offensive coordinator. While it’s still the ‘Air Raid’ offense, there are new schemes being installed and it will take time before the Bears are putting up 40+ points. With only 3 seniors starting on defense, I like Hawaii to score enough points to cover this spread.
Hawaii is 5-0 ATS in Week 1 the last five years and are undervalued in this spot. There's a new Head Coach for Hawaii and he used to play for the Rainbow Warriors. Nick Rolovich was the QB for Hawaii and will have former teammate Brian SMith as the offensive coordinator and associate head coach. I think these two guys are going to gel great and Hawaii can only get better as a team. Rolovich was the OC at Nevada the last 4 years. Rolovich came to Nevada after a wildly productive four-year run at Hawaii, where he directed one of the top passing offenses in the nation. He was the quarterbacks coach all four seasons and spent the last two years as the Warriors' offensive coordinator. In Rolovich’s first game with Nevada in 2012, Rolovich beat Cal, 31-24, as a 12 point road dog, so their is some ‘deja vu’ here and a great storyline.
Hawaii returns 9 players on offense (73 offensive line starts). Senior QB Woolsey should be able to lead the team on some scores against this soft Cal defense. While Hawaii’s weakness is their secondary, the Cal Bears passing game is not going to be up to full speed yet. I think Hawaii will be improved offensively from last year and Cal will struggle to score, especially touchdowns and the defense is not good enough to offset the offensive regression.
Special Teams: Senior utility kicker Sanchez was one of only five kickers nationally to handle all duties. As a field goal kicker, he converted 8-of-11 attempts, including two from 47 yards and a long of 50 to earn all-Mountain West Honorable Mention. So we have a quality FG kicker on our side here as well. While we are looking for touchdowns, all scores will help and this game should have it’s fair share of field goal opportunities.
Dave Cokin
California vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +21
There’s zero question that California rates the role of chalk as the Golden Bears head to Australia to get the 2016 season started against a rather soft opponent. Hawaii doesn’t figure to be especially good, and I don’t see the Rainbow Warriors having a good chance to win this game outright.
But the good news is Hawaii only needs to be competitive to hang the big number in this battle, and I think the Warriors have a decent chance to do exactly that. Not by a bundle, mind you, but by enough to cash a ticket.
I see Nick Rolovich as a definite coaching upgrade for Hawaii. That’s not a knock on the legendary Norm Chow, but his ship had sailed and I have to believe we’re going to see more focused performances and a more disciplined approach under Rolovich. He also will be able to bank on more experience this season, as Hawaii returns 15 starters plus some solid special teamer. So while the Warriors are still way down the list in terms of power rankings, I do have them higher than in 2015, even if that doesn’t result in added wins.
Cal is in rebuild mode. Sonny Dykes has to replace a QB selected first overall in the NFL draft, what amounts to the entire receiving corps, and there are holes on the defense as well. The PAC-12 has a load of balance and the league will have a tough time getting anyone to the playoffs as they beat up on one another in conference play. The Golden Bears don’t figure to be anywhere near the title chase, and in fact, Cal might only be favored one time the rest of the season.
There isn’t any question the favorite has the better athletes, and if this game were being played a couple months from now, when the newcomers have more experience, I likely wouldn’t even be considering the underdog.
But the fact is that right now, I can see the experience factor being quite important. I can also see Hawaii having tremendous enthusiasm here. They’re not very good, but every team thinks they are when the ledger reads 0-0. So I don’t think the Warriors take the field feeling defeated before the game gets started. It won’t surprise me if that’s exactly how they feel when they have to visit Michigan on September 3. But I’ll concern myself with that game later.
My line on this game is not far from where the actual line sits. I made Cal -18 with the game on neutral turf. So it’s not like this is any kind of slam dunk call on the Warriors, and to be honest, if it wasn’t a stand alone game, I’d probably leave it alone. In fact, this will only be a half-unit play for me. But I am taking the 21 with Hawaii and feel they’ll at least give Cal a battle to get the season started.
Ray Monohan
Mariners vs. White Sox
Play: Mariners +118
The Mariners and White Sox send out their aces here in this one and Seattle gets the edge because of their price.
Felix Hernandez allowed just 2 runs in 8.0 innings of work last time out, as he continues to be the dominant force he's always been in his career.
Where Seattle gets an edge here is offensively. Their offense scores almost a full run more than Chicago on the road, compared to the White Sox at home. With Cano and Cruz in the middle of that order protected well, more times than not you have to pitch to both.
Some trends to note. Mariners are 23-9 in Hernandezs last 32 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Mariners are 37-18 in Hernandezs last 55 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Mariners have played extremely well in Hernandez's starts. Given that and the offensive edge, Seattle is worth the price here.
Brandon Lee
Cubs vs. Dodgers
Play: Cubs -116
Chicago is worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Dodgers. The Cubs are on an absolute tear at the moment. They are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Padres and are 22-5 over their last 27. We are getting great value here on the best team in baseball, due to the Cubs sending out Mike Montgomery for a spot start. However, Montgomery just made a spot start last week at Colorado and gave up just 1 run in 4 1/3 innings of work. He gets the Dodgers after they almost were no hit by Matt Moore last night, so good chance he throws well again. I'll take my chances the Cubs offense provides enough run support in this one. LA will send out Bud Norris, who is coming off a miserable start at Cincinnati, where he allowed 6 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in just 3 2/3 innings of work.
Mike Lundin
Tampa Bay at Houston
Play: Tampa Bay +129
This looks like a good spot to back the Tampa Bay Rays with Drew Smyly (6-11, 4.88 ERA) on the mound. The left-hander is 4-0 with a 2.79 ERA in his last six outings, and the Rays have won each of his last five starts.
The Astros turn to Mike Fiers (9-6, 4.41) who's posted a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts. He's surrendered six home runs over 16 2/3 innings of work during that stretch and opposing batters are slugging .494 against Fiers during August.
The Astros return home from a week long road-trip which saw them take five of seven at Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They're however 0-4 in their last four home games following a road trip of seven or more days and the Rays are 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Houston.
Sam Martin
Packers vs. 49ers
Play: 49ers -1½
Two quarterbacks are expected to make their Preseason debut on Friday night as Aaron Rogers should see action for the Packers while Colin Kaepernick will finally take the field for the 49ers. After last year's season-ending Preseason injury to stud WR Jordy Nelson, Green Bay has gone the route of ultra-conservative with their star players, and while Rogers is expected to see action here, we don't look for him to be put in harm's way. San Francisco, on the other hand, is trying to find out who will be their starting quarterback, and we do look for both Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert to see quality time with the starters in the first true head-to-head on-field comparison. 49ers offense sputtered in their Preseason opener against Houston, but they did put up 31 points last week in an outright victory (as a six-point dog) at Denver. San Francisco has much more to gain in this third week of Preseason action while Green Bay simply tries to leave healthy.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +217 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays charmed season may be coming to an end. Without going into detail, Toronto has some decent parts of course but they have been far more fortunate than good. Losing two of three to an Angels team that lost 14 of 16 coming into the series might just be the start of Toronto’s demise. Hell, the Jays even lost last night to Jered Weaver and his 82 MPH fastball and 5.72 ERA (6.18 xERA). The Jays scored twice on Weaver and it came on a bomb.
Now the Jays are feeling the heat. Prior to last night, Weaver’s swing and miss rate on the year was a measly 6%. Against Toronto last night, Weaver’s swing and miss rate was an elite 13%. We can assure you that Weaver wasn’t better last night than he’s been in previous starts. Toronto’s hitters are helping pitchers out. They are gripping the bat tighter and are swinging at stuff they shouldn’t be. They are also trying to go deep far too often instead of just making contact. Now another team comes into town with nothing to lose and wanting to make life miserable for a contender.
The Twins have made a host of changes to their roster all year and one of the benefactors was Pat Dean, who has both started and pitched in relief. Dean was a third-round pick in the 2010 draft due to his outstanding command and feel for pitching. Not much has changed over the years, as he continues to exhibit plus location, but he doesn’t throw with great velocity and he is an extreme pitch-to-contact guy. Dean’s fastball mostly sits in the 87-91 mph range, but he commands it well and moves it around the zone. He’ll mix in both a slider and curveball with the curve being the better of the two. His best offering is his deceptive change-up that he uses to neutralize right-handed batters. He’s spent his entire career in the starting rotation so this is where he is most comfortable. Dean has appeared in just 11 games this year with six of those coming as a starter. His elite groundball rate of 59% figures to play well in this park. In 47 overall innings, he has a decent BB/K split of 15/36 but a strong 67% first-pitch strike rate suggests his control should be better. Dude can throw strikes when he wants to. Over his last seven frames, Dean has walked none while striking out nine. Lastly, current Jays have three hits in 20 career AB’s against Dean for a combined BA of .150
The equation for Francisco Liriano’s success or failure is not a complicated one. If Liriano is throwing strikes, he can be difficult to hit. When he’s not throwing strikes, trouble looms. There isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which Liriano will show up here but what we know for sure is that he’s not throwing strikes about 50% of the time, which makes him a HUGE risk in this price range. Liriano has 13 BB’s over his past 26 innings. He leads the majors with an astonishing 75 walks in 131 innings. His WHIP since becoming a Blue Jay is a troubling 1.77 and his xERA is 4.62. So yeah, Liriano and the Jays can obviously win this one but do you really want to lay better than 2-1 to find out? Toronto continues to be the most overpriced team in MLB.
Oakland +185 over ST. LOUIS
Ross Detwiler is not on our radar. We have nothing good to say about him whatsoever. Detwiler has been simply awful for two straight seasons and wouldn't even be sniffing the majors again this year if not for the rash of injuries to Oakland starters. He started three games for the A’s and Oakland is 1-2 in those starts after Detwiler threw an 8-inning, six-hit shutout against the Orioles of all teams. Detwiler subsequently got whacked by the South Side and the Rangers with the latter two being on the road in hitter’s parks. He thrived at home in his friendly pitcher’s park. Detwiler’s best asset is his groundball rate of 52% but this wager has absolutely nothing to do with backing Ross Detwiler.
What we have here is a rookie pitcher making his third career start priced like he’s Carlos Martinez. That cannot be. Luke Weaver surrendered nine hits in five innings in his last start in Philadelphia. He lasted only four innings in his first start at Wrigley. Weaver’s oppBA is .342 and his WHIP is 1.78. Indeed the sample size is small and Weaver does bring an outstanding minor league pedigree with him but so what. History is lined with hundreds and hundreds of starters with minor-league pedigree that could never make it at this level. There’s also some dispute among scouts if Weaver truly has a plus pitch. He’s not a big guy either at 6’2”, and a lithe 170 pounds. Pitching at this level is nothing like the minors. Contrary to public belief, Oakland is not an easy out. Only two teams in the majors have struck out fewer times than Oakland so this is a team that puts the ball in play and just missed sweeping the Indians. In fact, in that just completed three-game set against the Tribe, Oakland allowed just three runs total while scoring 14 on its own. There are times when the price dictates the play. Luke Weaver is not established enough, nor has he done anything to be priced in this range.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ORLEANS -3 over Pittsburgh
Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are using this preseason schedule to get into game shape, stay healthy and not reveal a damn thing. If they cared, they would have showed so against Philadelphia last week, their in-state rival. Instead, the Steelers were wiped out and couldn’t care less about it. We won't waste your time anymore talking about the Steelers, as this one is all about a situational play on the Saints.
The honeymoon was a long one for Sean Payton and Drew Brees but last season was a the worst for both since they came to New Orleans. The Saints chose to keep the band together amidst rumors of a break up and now the pressure is on to win. New Orleans is 0-2 in the preseason and awful floods in Louisiana have left an already struggling region with even more devastation. It's in these times that something like football can rally those that are down. Much like in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina, the Saints are going to be that escape and reason for celebration. Payton opened practice to fanatics and flood victims this week and even picked a couple of lucky fans to participate as guest 'captains'. The Saints are very aware how important they are to the region. They are aware how a victory at home will bring a community together. It's been an emotional couple of weeks for many in the region and so the Superdome figures to be electric tonight, as the healing process begins. Saints will show up to play some football and the Steelers knowing the situation may just oblige. Even if Pittsburgh is uncooperative, New Orleans still figures to win going away.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL -104 over Winnipeg
The Blue Bombers win three games in a row for the first time in a very long time and suddenly the market is going nuts over them? While we respect how Winnipeg has bounced back after a 1-4 start to the year, wins over Edmonton, Hamilton (minus Collaros) and Toronto (minus Ray) doesn’t justify the Blue Bombers being road chalk. We should also point out that Winnipeg’s blowout win over Hamilton came after a three-hour lightning delay in which the away team is at a big disadvantage. Winnipeg has played eight games this season and they have outgained one opponent. Even in their last two victories against Hamilton and Toronto, Winnipeg was outgained by 82 and 51 yards respectively. The Blue Bombers have been favored once this entire season, which came in their home opener against Montreal, a game Winnipeg would lose outright, 22-14 as a 2½-choice. In 18 games last season, Winnipeg was favored one time the entire year and that too, was in its home barn against Montreal, a game they won 25-23 but failed to cover. Remarkably, you would have to go back to September of 2011 to find the last time the Blue Bombers were road favorites. Now they’re road favorites again because why? Winnipeg has proven nothing yet and the momentum they did have has been interrupted by an untimely bye. This is a true sell high opportunity on Winnipeg and one we are not about to miss.
The Alouettes have just one less win that the Bombers. The Als also have two blowout wins, a 41-3 pasting over Saskatchewan and a 43-19 win in Ottawa. That is over the past four weeks. Over that same span, Montreal’s two losses were to Edmonton and Calgary so in reality, Montreal is in pretty decent form and they’re getting better too. The Alouettes have an outstanding defense that just might be the league’s best unit. They have held three of eight opponents under 20 points this season while holding another one to 23 points. Slowly and methodically, Montreal is gaining steam while looking more cohesive each week.
Matt Nichols has done a great job for Winnipeg since taking over from Drew Willy. Frankly, benching Willy was a desperation move by the Bombers to turn things around. Let us not forget that Nichols has had chances in this league before and failed miserably. As it turns out, the timing was spot on for Winnipeg and Nichols to catch lightning in a bottle for a few weeks but the party is likely over now that the market is giving them too much credit. Wrong side favored.