MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 25
MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 25
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
The number crunching machine tells us 'Under' is the way to go when Toronto Blue Jays sends Mark Buehrle to the mound Friday to face Red Sox. Buehrle with a league best 0.64 ERA over his four starts has been an 'Under' bettors dream posting a 14-3-1 'Under' last eighteen trips to the mound. Final convincing betting nuggets, the 'Under' is 9-1-1 the past eleven home starts for Buehrle, the southpaw has seen the 'Under' hit in 12 of his last 14 vs the A.L. East, the series with Red Sox is on a 7-1 'Under' stretch.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
The opening matchup of a three game set is today’s baseball betting focus as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies this evening at Dodger Stadium. Right-hander Josh Beckett (0-0, 2.57 ERA) will toe the rubber for Don Mattingly's squad and will be matching pitches with Rockies Jordan Lyles (3-0, 3.04 ERA). Dodgers mired in a 1-3 slump will grab some attention but the most compelling numbers against Dodgers are the figures compiled by starter Josh Beckett. The hurler unable to get past the fifth inning in any of his three starts takes the mound on a 0-5 skid his last 11 starts with an ugly 2-9 TSR over the span. Looking further back Dodgers are 5-13 with Beckett since he joined the club. A deeper dive into the trusty MLB Database tells us Dodgers are 1-7 opening a series with the hurler, 3-11 when he takes to the mound at night. Evidence is the key in making any case and the numbers above clearly illustrate a 'Play-Against' Dodgers is the right choice. According to the current betting odds at Bovada.lv the Rockies enter this contest as +$1.23 road underdogs, with a total of 7.5.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 25
MLB Betting News and Notes
By Dave Essler
San Diego-Washington: Tough to take a -200 favorite in a game that shouldn't see many runs, conversely easy to think about the +1.5 at what will be a cheap price. Strasburg a little more effective last time out, but not dominant. We'll see how Washington does against another LHP on Thursday and take it from there. Could be some weather here, perhaps even delays, and those games can be even more unpredictable.
Mets-Fish: Mets should be broken up! The biggest issue here is that Miami had the day off on Thursday, but the Fish have been as bad on the road as they've been good at home. Alvarez threw a two-hitter, but it was against Seattle and they haven't been hitting anyone. I tend to think the Mets new-found confidence is the winner. Perhaps some showers and even downright rain late here, with wind blowing out to LF. I'd almost be concerned about a total, because this game may not make 9 innings.
Reds-Braves: Reds play Thursday afternoon and get a fortunate win, but it's a win. Braves the day off, and I'm not sure I'd want to bet that Santana falls apart anytime soon. Leake can give up the long ball, and against a team like the Braves who live and die with the HR, it'd be tough for me to take the Reds here. The Braves pen has finally come around, but, it's been against Miami and the Mets, so I'm not convinced their issues are solved yet. At 7, this game could go over.
Cubs-Brewers: That's an awful steep price for the Brewers, even with Garza pitching. Villaneuva has been murdered the last two times out, so there's certainly no precedent for me taking the Cubs RL, either, not with the Cubs playing Thursday and the Brewers having the day off. I could certainly see using Milwuakee in a parlay/exotic. The hearty Wisconsin people may have the roof open and there's a slight helping breeze, so you know what that means.
Pirates-Cardinals: Pirates falling on some tough times late. They're on about a 4-11 streak, and their bullpen has regressed as well. Cole has been far more hittable away from PNC, and he opened the season beating St. Louis 12-2, and I doubt they've forgotten about that. But, they are in a first game back after losing a couple of windy/tough games to the Mets. Miller was the victim in that 12-2 loss, so if conventional wisdom plays a part, you'd have to like the Cardinals. Which means I might take the Pirates to win it late because the Cardinals pen has been terrible.
Philadelphia-Arizona: Tough travel spots for both teams, really. Phillies fly down from LA late tonight, while D-Backs fly from Chicago after a day game. Both team dicey to put money on, but I suppose I trust Fausto more than Collmenter at this point, which really, without looking to deep at this game, is the lesser of two evils. May depend on if anything happens late in LA that has any bearing.
Dodgers-Rockies: You would think that with "Beckett" and "the Dodgers" would be a bit more expensive against Lyles. But, Lyles is a groundball pitcher that doesn't give up the long ball, and in a big park like Dodger Stadium that's even a bigger advantage. Colorado with a day off while the Dodgers play late. Beckett's been pitching well, but not more than five innings yet, so this is without a doubt a F5 under bet for me. I can't back the Rockies bullpen, although the RL might be very doable.
Royals-Orioles: Baltimore flying back through Customs later tonight while the Royals short flight over from Cleveland. Ventura seems to be this seasons' somewhat over valued 22 year old that few have seen, but he got lit up by the Twins last time out. This is another game that could well either be rained out or delayed, so I wouldn't consider a total play, and honestly doubt I'd waste much time on it because of that. All things being equal, it'd be another F5 under if they play.
Boston-Toronto: As I am writing this Boston is simply playing poorly early against the Yankees, so traveling later tonight and coming off a series against the Yankees, I'd have to think that Toronto would be the play here. Peavy had his moment in the sun last October, and has had both control and long ball issues. Toronto just took a 3-0 lead on Baltimore, while Boston may be using more bullpen than they'd like. As much as Boston has hit Buerhle when he was with Chicago, I lean Toronto.
Tampa Bay-Chicago: Archer is at a young age one of those pitchers people like to back as well. He was lit in a road outing at Baltimore, but the White Sox haven't seen much of him, so lean to the Rays a bit. However, their bullpen has been used and abused the last couple of days, so it's all really on Archer to shut them down and go 7 innings, IMO. Not sure that Johnson is someone I could put money on, and with the White Sox pen used as well, this game could go over. Weather fairly conducive, and I might see taking the Rays RL, getting at least nine at bats.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 25
Friday's MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
Burly vs. Buehrle
The Toronto Blue Jays have one of the hottest pitchers going in veteran left-hander Mark Buehrle, who comes into Friday's game against Boston with a 4-0 mark and a 0.64 ERA. So why is Toronto only a -125 home fave against the Boston Red Sox? Credit the narrow odds - at least in part - to the presence of slugger David Ortiz, who has a .329/.372/.575 slash line with three homers and 13 RBIs in 73 career at-bats against Buehrle.
One look at Shelby Miller's career home stats (10-4, 1.77 ERA, 106 K in 106 2/3 IP) and it's borderline unfathomable that his St. Louis Cardinals are only a slight favorite (-117) against visiting Pittsburgh. Call it the "Pirate factor" - the National League Central rivals dominated Miller in 2013, handing him four of his nine losses on the season while saddling him with a 5.32 ERA and batting .319 in four starts against him.
Expect an ugly night for the San Diego Padres as they head to the nation's capital as a hefty underdog (+190) against Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals. The hosts play the role of heavy favorite to near-perfection, going 22-5 in their last 27 games as a fave of -201 or greater. Strasburg, in particular, has aided the cause by going 5-0 in his last five starts under those circumstances.
* Braves right-hander Ervin Santana hasn't allowed more than one run in any of his three starts in an Atlanta uniform, racking up 24 strikeouts over 21 innings in that span while limiting opposing hitters to a .218 OBP.
* Red Sox righty Jake Peavy is coming off his first shaky start of the season, surrendering five runs over 5 2/3 innings but escaping with a no-decision in a 6-5 win over Baltimore. Control has eluded Peavy of late, as he has issued 12 walks over his last three outings.
* Astros right-hander Brad Peacock isn't the most popular guy in Houston these days. The 26 year old has been dreadful at Minute Maid Park so far in 2014, surrendering seven runs on nine hits and five walks over seven innings there.
* Paging Indians third baseman Carlos Santana. The veteran slugger enters Friday's game against the San Francisco Giants mired in a 2-for-46 slide that has seen his batting average plummet to .137 - the lowest of any qualified hitter in the American League.
* Angels first baseman Ian Stewart has proven to be an unlikely nemesis of Yankees starter Hiroki Kuroda, who faces Los Angeles on Friday. Stewart is 6-for-13 with two walks and four RBIs in his career against Kuroda.
Minnesota Twins (5-0 O/U): The Twins' mostly moribund offense has sprung to live over the previous five games, averaging six runs over that span.
* Diamondbacks outfielder Mark Trumbo (fractured foot) is expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks.
* Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer (hamstring strain) has been placed on the 15-day disabled list and likely won't return until mid-May.
* Rangers outfielder Shin-Soo Choo (sprained ankle) is questionable for Friday but is hoping to avoid the disabled list.
* A rare episode of showers is in the forecast at AT&T Park in San Francisco, where the Giants host the Cleveland Indians. The rain is expected to taper off later in the evening, with temperatures in the low-50s and wind blowing out to center field at 13 mph.
* Fans at Citi Field should expect a 30 percent chance of rain for the New York Mets' showdown with the Miami Marlins. Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing out to center field at 10 mph.
Hot and cold betting trends
* Angels at Yankees: Los Angeles has won just seven times in its last 27 games at Yankee Stadium.
* Pirates at Cardinals: Over is 5-1 in Pittsburgh's last six series-opening games.
* Red Sox at Blue Jays: Under is 21-4-1 in Mark Buehrle's previous 26 starts.
* Rockies at Dodgers: Over is 7-1 in Los Angeles right-hander Josh Beckett's last eight home starts.
Stat of the Day
Being a moderate favorite at Miller Park agrees with the Brewers, who are 51-12 in their previous 63 home games when favored between -151 and -200. Milwaukee is a -180 fave for Friday's showdown against the visiting Chicago Cubs.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 25
MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
LAS VEGAS -- One of the best stories of the young baseball season has been the resurgence of 35-year-old left-hander Mark Buehrle, who through four starts leads the majors with a tiny 0.64 ERA and is tied with two others with a 4-0 record. He’s the only pitcher to start the season 4-for-4, which matches his personal best from 2002, when he finished with a career-high 19 wins for the White Sox. But his insane ERA makes this his best start to a season ever.
The most beautiful part of Buehrle’s game is that he does it all with the slow stuff, as his fastball averages about 83 mph, about 10 mph slower than the league average. But he’s been picking his spots much better than ever and has kept hitters guessing and waiting for when his speed dips 15 mph with his creeping, bending curveball. He’s hitting inside spots that hitters can’t seem to reach and has dropped in 15 of his 19 strikeouts on third-strike calls.
Tonight, he tries to go 5-for-5 in April and is a -125 favorite to do so against the Red Sox and Jake Peavy.
The Blue Jays will be looking to avoid a season-long three game losing streak, while the Red Sox have lost three of their last four with less-than-effective starting pitching. Peavy (0-0, 3.33) is still looking for first win of the season and comes off a no-decision, allowing five runs to Baltimore in Sunday’s 6-5 win.
Buehrle has won his past two starts against the Red Sox, allowing only one run in August and September games last season. Peavy has allowed only two runs in each of his past two starts against the Blue Jays, but his team lost both, and he was tagged with the loss against Buehrle August 15 at Toronto.
Peavy has pitched well thus far, but Buehrle is in a completely different class. He's in a groove like we’ve never seen from him before, so why bet against it? Until a team figures him out, it’s best to go along for the ride and make a trip to the bet window.
Miller walks plank regularly
The Pirates are currently going through a rough stretch that has seen them lose 11 of their last 14 games, including dropping their last three at home to the Reds. But they should have a little more zip in their step tonight, not only because it can be invigorating for a slumping ball club to start a new chapter on a fresh road trip, but also because tonight’s starter for the Cardinals is Shelby Miller (1-2, 3.57 ERA), who has lost all five of his starts to the Pirates. He's had only 36 career starts.
Miller faced tonight’s Pirates starter, Gerrit Cole (2-1, 3.67), in a 12-2 loss at Pittsburgh on April 4 and has a 5.93 ERA against Pittsburgh in his five losses. In his past four starts against them, he’s given up at least two homers. Pirates slugger Pedro Alvarez has been struggling lately and has just three hits in 14 at-bats against Miller, but all three were homers.
St. Louis is a -115 favorite because of the Pirates’ recent struggles, with a total of 7 runs posted. Until we see Miller beat Pittsburgh, or just pitch well against them, we’ll go with the team that has his number.
Blue Jays (Buehrle) -125 vs. Red Sox
Pirates (Cole) +105 at Cardinals
Royals (Ventura) -105 at Orioles
Rangers/Mariners UNDER 7.5 (-120)
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