WNBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

WNBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

WNBA Finals Preview: Atlanta vs. Minnesota
By Steve Bennett

ATLANTA DREAM (24-15) vs. MINNESOTA LYNX (31-8)

Series Schedule (Best of 5):
Game 1 at MIN: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Game 2 at MIN: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Game 3 at ATL: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Game 4 at ATL: Sunday, Oct. 9, 4:00 p.m. EDT (if necessary)
Game 5 at MIN: Wednesday, Oct. 12, 8:00 p.m. EDT (if necessary)

The WNBA Finals tip-off Sunday night, with the Atlanta Dream back as the underdog, this time against the Minnesota Lynx.

The Lynx swept the regular season series from Atlanta, winning handily both times. While those meetings were back in June, Minnesota still clearly has the edge. This is the first trip to the Finals for the Lynx. They have the best record in the WNBA, the right mix of young talent (Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore) and veteran experience (Taj McWilliams-Franklin), not to mention home-court advantage, where the Lynx are 17-3 SU at home this year. Minnesota has won 13 of its past 15 games, and easily disposed of Phoenix in the Western Conference finals. None of their past three games were closer than 17 points. Plus, the Western Conference has won 11 of 14 WNBA titles, and among Eastern Conference teams, only Detroit has won it all.

The pick here is MINNESOTA to win the series.

The Dream were swept in the Finals by Seattle a year ago. This year’s team is playing some hard-nosed defense in the postseason, holding opponents to 39% shooting, and the strong play of Angel McCoughtry (18.4 PPG in the playoffs) has led a balanced offensive attack. But the emergence of Izi Castro Marques is what pushed them back into the finals. After coming off the bench in their first three playoff games, the Brazilian swingman moved into the starting lineup after a Game 1 loss to Indiana and went for 30 in Game 2 and 23 in Game 3, shooting 54% from the field and 7-for-12 from three in those games. It was a stunning turnaround, and considering Castro Marques’ regular-season numbers (7.6 PPG, 36% FG, 21% 3-pt FG), it also may have been a fluke.

The teams played a home-and-home on June 17 and 19, with the Lynx winning easily both times, 96-85 at home, then 77-64 in Atlanta. They shot just 6-for-25 from three in those two games, but Augustus was nearly unstoppable in the paint. She averaged 22.0 PPG while shooting 59% from the field and 11-for-12 from the line in the two games. She’s averaging 20.4 PPG on 49% shooting from the field and 14-of-15 from the line through five postseason games. And Moore, who won two national titles at the University of Connecticut, hasn’t shrunk in her first WNBA postseason, averaging 15.2 PPG and shooting 46% from three.

A big part of the reason Minnesota won those two games easily in June was the defensive job point guard Lindsay Whalen did on Lindsey Harding, the Atlanta point guard. Harding, who averaged 10.5 PPG on 46% shooting and 4.8 APG during the regular season, shot 5-for-21 and handed out a total of four assists in those losses. McCoughtry scored 27 in the teams’ first meeting, but was held to 10 in the second, and her 2-for-13 shooting was a big contributor to Atlanta’s 30% shooting from the field.

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Re: WNBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

ATLANTA (21 - 18) at MINNESOTA (30 - 8) - 10/6/2013, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games this season.
MINNESOTA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 8-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


ATLANTA vs. MINNESOTA
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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Re: WNBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals, playing with 3 or more days rest 49-20 since 1997. ( 71.0% 27.0 units ) 5-2 this year. ( 71.4% 2.8 units )

WNBA ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games 104-25 since 1997. ( 80.6% 0.0 units ) 5-2 this year. ( 71.4% 0.0 units )

WNBA ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team 29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% 20.2 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

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