Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Bryan Leonard

Oakland +3.5

How bad have the Washington Redskins been this season? Not only are they 0-3 on the year but when you back out the wins over Washington their opponents are posting a minuscule .167 winning percentage. Washington has been out gained in every contest and have come up short to the spread by 27.5 points in just three games this season. Opponents are throwing all over this Redskin defense to the tune of 333 yards per contest and an opposing quarterback rating of 107.6.

Oakland is playing on a short week having faced the Broncos monday night, but they have been a pleasant surprise to backers this season. The Raiders are averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense which is well above league average. The running game is averaging a whopping 5.3 yards per carry. Oakland should find quality success against this very giving Washington defense.

Mike Shanahan has always fared well against the Raiders but this is a long way from home for the Skins. At 0-3 many will feel that it's a must win game for Washington, but teams in that situation are there for a reason. The Skins right now are not a good football team and they don't deserve to be a favorite on the road in this price range.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Brady Kannon

Cleveland +4

I had a really good feeling about my Browns play last week late when the number kept skyrocketing and the whole world thought that there was no possible way The Clevelanders had anything in the tank following the Richardson trade.  One player of this stature does not make for a 3-or-4 point line swing.  On the other side of the card, The Bengals were out gained by The Packers by 100-yards but still got the win. The Bengals are indeed a solid team but they're probably a bit full of themselves after beating rival Pittsburgh and Green Bay.  Now they go on the road for an instate rival affair with The Browns, who are showing real life after the trade, sparked by the play of quarterback, Brian Hoyer.  I have always thought The Browns were a team that was often overlooked and has sported a solid defense the last few years, that continues to get better.  In addition, they run the ball markedly better than The Bengals do in terms of net yards per play.  I like the way this team is trying to build itself, the coaching staff is sending a message, and I think they give Cincinnati a stern test this week in the Dawg Pound.  Go Browns!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

King Creole

Arizona +2.5

Tampa picked a heck of a time to make a major switch at the QUARTERBACK position. NC State rookie Mike Glennon gets the call as the Bucs host the Cardinals. So now we get the DOG... with a much more experienced QB.... and 50 yard-per-game better offense. Part of us wouldn't mind this game drifting up to +3 or +3.5 points. But then we remember the lessons that our database has taught us about the curious pointspread of +2.5 points... which is the current line as of Friday evening.

If the game CLOSES at the line of +2.5, here's what we know:
Oddsmakers want you to play the FAVORITE when the line is less than 3 points. On average, the home field advantage in the NFL is right at 3 points. So if a home team is favored by LESS than 3 points (-1, -1.5, -2, or -2.5), the perception is that the road team is actually the BETTER team. And that's the case in this game. As of late, it's the underdogs of LESS than 3 points that cover (or WIN) much more often than the underdog of +3 points exact.

Here's what the database has revealed in these games:
Non-Division road UNDERDOGS of LESS than (<) 3 points (CARDS) have gone 17-6 ATS in the last 3 seasons (74%). The surprising aspect is that these teams have actually gone 16-7 STRAIGHT UP as well. So the perceived 'better' team (that short dog) has indeed won OUTRIGHT 70% of the time. We also note that these underdogs have gone a PERFECT 11-0 ATS when playing off a non-division game (like the CARDS).

Tampa Bay is winless on the year. And 0-3 teams who are favored in Week Four are POOR plays.
6-19 ATS since 1988: All GAME FOUR winless favorites of > 1 point (Bucs). These teams have gone a perfect 0-5 ATS since the 2007 season.

Arizona lost on the road BIG Last week to Dallas (34-7).
6-0 ATS last 3 years: All GAME FOUR road underdogs playing off a SU Loss of > 10 points (CARDS and GIANTS).

This is the second of back-to-back road games for Arizona.
20-2 ATS since 1990: All non-division underdogs of < 9 pts... in the 2ND of BB road games... and off a SU Loss of 21 or more points (CARDS)... versus any opponent off a SU Loss (Bucs).

The Buccaneers are also off a Week Three ugly game, losing to the Patriots 23 to 3.
0-8 ATS: All non-division home favorites in GAME NINE or less off a SU Loss of 20 > pts (Bucs) versus a < .500 opponent also off a SU Loss of 20 > pts (CARDS).

Tampa Bay has been a really BAD short favorite in NFC conference games. The BUCS gave gone 0-6-1 ATS in the last 3 years as non-division conference favorites of LESS than (<) 6 points.

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Joe Gavazzi

Pittsburgh -2.5

Last week the 10 Pittsburgh players from the 2008 Championship season sought to solve the issues behind the then 0-2 SU start. Their solution? Ban all the other players from the recreation area; seems a strange way to create team unity. Results? Bears 40, Steelers 23. Despite outgaining Chicago, 459-258, Pittsburgh imploded with 5 more turnovers. That makes 9 for the season, with no takeaways. Ergo, the 0-3 SU ATS mark. This week, on Ben's radio show on "The Fan" he dissed RB Bell, saying he wasn't sure the guy was going full tilt in practice. Ben compared it to the actions of veteran Heath Miller, who was apparently busting his tail to get back from his injury. When Ben was questioned about it, he attempted to disguise it as a compliment for Miller. Too late. Now a fractured Steeler team gets as close to a "gimme" as an 0-3 SU ATS team could get. The winless Vikings have an injured signal caller in QB Ponder (ribs) and RB Peterson, who could have tough going on what is normally the slippery surface in London. One of these teams drops to 0-4, but it really doesn't matter since only 3 teams since 1990 have made the playoffs after beginning the season with a negative hat trick. Check the lead article to see how important the return of RB Bell is to the fortunes of a team only running on 17% of their plays for only 17% of their yards.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Terron Chapman

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3

Last week’s 27-20 loss to the New York Jets was a game to forget for rookie quarterback EJ Manuel. His 45 percent completion percentage was the second lowest in the NFL last week behind only Michael Vick. The Jets pressured the rookie early and often, sacking him eight times and hitting him 16 times. Things don’t figure to be any easier this week with the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens set to pay a visit to Orchard Park.

The Ravens defense may not be what it has been in past years, but since allowing seven touchdowns in the season opener in Denver, the Ravens haven’t allowed a touchdown since. That’s a span of 25 straight drives, a span of 124 minutes, 30 seconds. The Ravens and Jets run similar types of defenses. Manuel was just 1-for -10 when the Jets rushed five or more last weekend and 1-for-8 when the Jets rushed a defensive back. Look for the Ravens to dress up their blitz packages forcing the rookie signal-caller to make early decisions, something he had trouble with last week.

A return to Ralph Wilson Stadium should help the host Bills in what will be a tough physical matchup. Buffalo has played better at home, upsetting the Carolina Panthers and leading the Patriots in the fourth quarter. The Ravens one weakness on defense is their pass defense but as mentioned, Manuel struggled with pressure last week and we expect more of the same this week. The Bills only chance heading into this one is a Ravens letdown. But after an embarrassing party bus incident earlier in the week in which their leadership – or “perceived” lack thereof – was questioned, expect head coach John Harbaugh to have his troops focused. The Bills will present a challenge at home, but in the end, the Ravens should make enough plays on both sides of the ball to pull away in the second half. Lay the road chalk at your sportsbook.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Freddy Wills

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions -3

This is a great division rivalry which has been owned by the Bears who have taken 8 of the last 10 including both games last year. Below I'll break down a bit of my feeling on this game in a non-traditional sense so you can understand how I came up with my NFL against the spread play. Takeaways Are Lucky? Well not 100%, but there is some luck to taking the ball away. Either you are just in the right spot at the right time or the offense just is not capable of taking care of the ball or your defense is just that good. I view the Bears as a combination of the offenses they have faced and being at the right spot at the right time with about 20% of their takeaways being "they are just that good!" The takeaways have hidden so many other issues that the Bears have for instance they are ranked 29th on defense in yards per play and 25th in third down conversion percentage. When they are not forcing more than 2 turnovers in a game they are 5-14 in the last two seasons and 18-0 when they do. Lucky Lions? I would call the Lions anything but lucky. However they are taking care of the ball right now. The Lions are 6th in takeaways themselves and rank 6th in turnover margin. Steelers were able to show some obvious weaknesses in Chicago's defense as Big Ben put up 406 yards which is amazing since the Steelers could not move the ball in previous games. The Lions have an elite offense one that returns Reggie Bush and despite losing Nate Burrelson will be okay with the other receiving weapons they have. Detroit Lions -3 +100 2* FREE PLAY Most books have this with no juice right now and we will take it. The bears are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 350+ yards and facing the Lions who want revenge from losing twice last year is going to be no easy task. When you look at the Bears this season they could have easily gone 0-3 in their first three games and I very much think they are over rated. I think this line should be -4.5 because on neutral field I'd still play the Lions.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Will Rogers

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
Pick: Under

Though it didn't work out last week, it did the first two weeks, and once again I'll make my free play the Under on the Cleveland Browns.  Last week was a downright shocking result as they went into Minnesota with a 3rd string QB, after trading Trent Richardson, and beat the Vikings 31-27. This week's opponent is much tougher defensively.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Stepping Up & Stepping Down - My first takeaway from the Browns win last week was "how bad is the Vikings secondary?"  The correct answer to that question would be somewhere between "very bad" and "atrocious."  This week, Brian Hoyer and the Cleveland offense will be going up against a far more formidable Cincinnati defense.  While the Bengals gave up 30 points last week, that was against Green Bay, and their offense didn't help them out with four turnovers.  I expect a defensive effort here similar to the one they gave against Pittsburgh two weeks ago.

2. Browns Offense - Ok, so they put up 31 points last week.  That was more than the previous two games combined.  While Hoyer can't be any worse than Brandon Weeden, he defnitely benefited from having WR Josh Gordon back last week, a luxury Weeden never had.  However, regardless of who has been in at QB for the Browns, the bottom line is they have scored only 10 second half points total in the three games so far.  They are 23-11 Under last 34 games overall.

3. X-Factor - Cincinnati is 7-0 Under when coming off consecutive victories the last two seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Ben Burns

Philadelphia vs. Denver
Pick: Philadelphia

The Broncos will be trying for their 15th consecutive regular-season victory. That would tie their franchise record.

A shootout is expected. (The O/U line is roughly 10 points higher than the second biggest O/U line on the entire board.)

Manning is obviously playing at a very high level right now and he has the entire Denver offense doing so. The Broncos are putting up sick numbers, averaging 486.7 yards and 42.3 points per game.

As no team has been able to stop the Broncos yet, we can't really expect the Eagles to do so.

The Eagles may well be able to keep up with Denver though. The Broncos have given up more than 20 points against every team they've faced thus far. Opposing teams are averaging more than 370 yards per game against them.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are averaging 461.7 yards per game. They've got the top rushing offense in the league. They should be able to move the ball and score.

Although they didn't have to travel, I believe that its important to remember that the Broncos are coming off a Monday Night game and that the Eagles have had an extended break, due to playing last Thursday. When facing Denver, any extra preparation time figures to be helpful. (The Broncos are 1-2 ATS off a Monday night game the past couple of seasons and the lone cover came when they had a bye following the Monday game.)

The Eagles badly want to avoid falling to 1-3. They've got a coach and QB who are both confident and both would love nothing more than to prove they can beat the great Peyton Manning. I look for the Eagles to be a lot more competitive than many are expecting and feel that the line is generous. Consider Philadelphia

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Bruce Marshall

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland

Maybe new HC Rob Chudzinski & offensive coordinator Norv Turner were able to convince ex-Michigan State and new Cleveland QB Brian Hoyer that he was actually playing Illinois or Indiana, judging by Hoyer’s 321 YP & 3 TD passes in his victory at Minnesota. Even considering his three picks last week at the Metrodome, the fearless Hoyer appears a lot more likely than Brandon Weeden (no guarantee to regain the starting role when his thumb heals) to find holes in the somewhat-leaky Cincy secondary.  Note that the Bengals have failed to cover their last three vs. lesser Browns teams in this intense “Paul Brown” state rivalry.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Teddy Covers

N.Y. Giants vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City

The Giants aren’t winless by accident.  Their biggest issue is on the offensive line; a unit that has been badly outplayed in every game this season.  The inability to block has resulted in all kinds of problems.

New York has an NFL worst 2.7 yards per carry average from their running backs. Eli Manning has been sacked eleven times.  And the G-men have an NFL worst -9 turnover margin – lots of mistakes when guys are consistently getting hit in the backfield.

Things have gone from bad to worse on that offensive line this past week.  Center David Baas is hurt.  Guard Chris Snee is hurt.  Tackle David Diehl is hurt, the only one of the three starters with any chance to play although he’s listed as ‘doubtful’.  That leaves center and the right side of the line with a combined five career starts, three of them from rookie right tackle Justin Pugh.

The Chiefs defense is their strength, and they’re not 3-0 by accident any more than the Giants are 0-3 by accident.  We saw them blow up a solid Eagles OL last week, forcing six turnovers in the process.  Facing a mistake prone QB with a porous offensive line is a dream scenario for this stop unit; a unit that is capable of covering this short spread all by themselves.

Last year, with the playoffs on the line in Week 15, the Giants lost 34-0 at Atlanta, a very similar loss to the one they suffered at Carolina last week.  The G-men had a chance to rally back into playoff contention the following week at Baltimore.  But the second of back-2-back road games wasn’t much better than the first, as the Giants lost 33-14 and were eliminated.

The late season losses last year exposed a leadership void in the Giants locker room.  They laid down and quit early when trailing last week.  And the G-men are now 3-8 SU and ATS since their 6-2 start to the season last year, including an 0-6 mark on the road.  Four of those six losses have come by 18 points or more; non-competitive efforts.  I’m not expecting any sort of dramatic turnaround against a superior foe this week.  Take Kansas City.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Steve Merril

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland

The Bengals are going to have a hard time moving the ball, especially since they are off an emotional game last week.  We’ll back the Browns once again this week, especially since they are catching points against a team off back-to-back high profile wins.  Take the points with Cleveland on Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati comes into this game with a fortunate 2-1 record after last week’s lucky win over the Packers.  Green Bay went for a game-sealing fourth down but they fumbled and Cincinnati returned it 58 yards for the winning touchdown.  Cincinnati was out-yarded 399-297 by the Packers, including a 182-82 rushing yardage disadvantage.  Green Bay also had a 27-19 first down edge.  The Bengals are not in a good scheduling spot for this game even though they should be ready for an in-state divisional opponent.  Prior to last week’s win over Green Bay, the Bengals hosted divisional foe Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football.  The Bengals just beat two name teams and now they must take to the road and face the lowly Browns.

Cleveland won SU last week in Minnesota as 7-point road underdogs for us, and we’ll back the Browns once again this week.  Home underdogs coming off a SU road underdog win the previous week is a strong momentum angle.  The team has a ton of confidence off their win, and they feel disrespected since they are catching points on their home field.  It’s a simple angle and it makes a lot of sense.  Cleveland’s defense is holding opponents to just 300 yards of total offense per game which is 6th best in the NFL.  The Browns are #2 in the league in holding their opponents to just 4.2 yards per play.  Cleveland ranks #6 in allowing only 5.7 yards per pass attempt.  The Bengals are going to have a hard time moving the ball, especially since they are off an emotional game last week.  We’ll back the Browns once again this week, especially since they are catching points against a team off back-to-back high profile wins.  Take the points with Cleveland on Sunday afternoon.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Scott Spreitzer

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin III has been a shell of his former self thus far, but he is getting healthier and I believe it's only a matter of time before we get a reminder of the 2012 pre-injury version. But I'll take a less than complete RG-3 over Terrelle Pryor, who is listed as probable after suffering a concussion on Monday night. Let's also not forget that Washington opened with an extremely rusty QB at the helm and facing an offense they had not seen before in the NFL (Eagles). Their other losses came to the Packers & Lions, two teams who figure to be in the playoff race all season. The contest against Oakland is a step down in level of competition. The Skins, ranked 5th in the league in passing & total offense, should get "just what the doctor ordered" against a Raider defense that's certainly not horrible, but no better than mediocre. Oakland is allowing 244 yards passing per game, an important note when you consider the Skins are on a 6-0 ATS run against teams that allow at least 235 yards passing per game, while the Raiders have covered just 7 of their last 27 at home off a road loss to a division opponent. I expect more of the same. I'm recommending a play on the Redskins minus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

John Ryan

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans
Prediction: Houston Texans

The simulator shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Seattle is off to an impressive 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS start and have by far the best defense in the NFL. Houston is off to a 2-1 start, but has yet to cover a number. They are off a humiliating road loss at Baltimore. So, with a skinny line favoring the Seahawks and the public all over the Seahawks makes for a interesting contrarian play on the Texans. Seattle is off a big and expected blowout win of Jacksonville. In the NFL, parity truly keeps all teams bunched up in the standings and Seattle is not an exception. They are just 3-18 ATS (-16.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Houston prepares very well for games that are expected to be tight and where big plays and turnovers decide the outcome. They are a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-13 mark for 74% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (SEATTLE) that are excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points/game and after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. You can all it a letdown, a West Coast team having to play at 1:00 against a very focused foe, or even just a bad game for the visitor, but I strongly believe that Houston will dominate this game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Kyle Hunter

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -10½

The Philadelphia Eagles offense has had trouble getting out of its own way over the past couple weeks. The Eagles can still pile up the yardage, but turnovers are quickly becoming a problem again. Mike Vick was a turnover machine against KC last Thursday night. Peyton Manning has yet to throw an interception this year, and the Eagles defense has no answer for him. I recommend a small play on the Broncos here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Jimmy Boyd

Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers    
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2

The fact that Tampa Bay is favored when they will have a new starting quarterback this week says a lot about the talent level of this Buccaneers team. This Buc's defense is solid, holding the Patriots and Saints to an average of just 19.5 points per game. They can defend well against both the run and pass. Tampa Bay held the Saints running back-by-committee approach to just 75 yards, and held Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 202 passing yards.

Having Mike Glennon get the start may provide just the spark this Bucs team needs to get the offense rolling. The talent is there with Vincent Jackson at receiver and Doug Martin at running back. It should be an easy first game for Glennon when he faces an Arizona defense that has given up 29 points per game on the road this season. The Cardinal's secondary has been horrible in those games, allowing 309 passing yards and a 66.7% completion rate from opposing quarterbacks.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Justin Bay

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: San Francisco Giants

Tyson Ross has had some pretty good numbers this year but has gotten no run support and today's game will be no different. Moscoso will be throwing for the Giants and has pretty good stats at home this season. He should be able to hold the Padres in this matchup and allow the Giants to get a win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Rob Vinciletti

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills    
Play: Buffalo Bills +3

Buffalo is home to take on the defending Champion Baltimore Ravens today. We note that Super Bowl champions are in one of their worst roles the following season when they are non divisional road favorites vs teams that are under .500. These road favorites are failing to cover over 90% of the time long term. Baltimore is off a big home dog win over Houston as our System Club Play last week. This is a potential flat spot for them here today as they are 2-9 to the spread as road favorites of less than 7 off back to back wins and 1-6 ats as Road favorites of more that 3 in the first 4 games of the season. The Bills played hard last week and nearly caught the Jets late in their 27-20 loss. E.J. Manuel has been better than expected and it would be no surprise for Buffalo to emerge with the win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Jim Feist

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders
Pick: Oakland Raiders

These two teams are a combined 1-5 this season with the Redskins still looking for that first win of the season. Makes me wonder how you can favor a winless team on the road??? The Redskins do have some explosive players on offense led by QB Robert Griffin III. This game will be more of a running game with both sides possessing skilled running attacks. Against the Broncos, the Raiders were down do quickly they couldn't establish their running attack. The Raiders are second in the league in rushing, with a 148.7 ypg average. Meanwhile the Redskins have been behind so much they have had to rely on Griffin's passing, which now ranks 5th in the league (307.3 ypg). The Redskins will have to find a way to stop people if they want to win. The Redskins allow a league-high 488 yards per game this season and have allowed 98 points in three games. Until Washington wins a game, I can't see passing on points at home against a winless team.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 29

Andy Iskoe

Jacksonville +9

It's as tough to go 0-16 as it is to go 16-0 and as ugly as a team may look early in the season there is more room to show improvement than there is for better teams. Thus the Jags can be expected to show modest improvement over the next month or so. And bad teams generally present the best line value, especially in the NFL where the talent gap between the best and worst teams is not nearly as great as is generally thought. This is a bad scheduling spot for the Colts who host powerful Seattle next week after having pulled a major upset at San Francisco last week, a win that was not fluky in any sense. It's a natural letdown spot against the league's weakest team. It's also a good spot for the Jags who are off of a pair of road games and have two more road games on deck. Through good times and bad these teams have a long history of competitive games.

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