Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 29

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 29

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Chicago at Brooklyn
The Nets look to stay alive in the series and take advantage of a Chicago team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games following a SU win. Brooklyn is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nets favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-5 1/2)

Game 517-518: Indiana at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.929; Atlanta 119.661
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1 1/2); Under

Game 519-520: Chicago at Brooklyn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 114.087; Brooklyn 124.622
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 180
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-5 1/2); Over

Game 521-522: Oklahoma City at Houston (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 123.476; Houston 124.011
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 1; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2); Over

MLB

Cleveland at Kansas City
The Indians look to build on their 7-2 record in Ubaldo Jimenez' last 9 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Cleveland is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125)

Game 901-902: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.596; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.011
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125); Under

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Harvey) 14.563; Miami (Fernandez) 13.452
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-170); Over

Game 905-906: San Diego at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 15.492; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.625
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); N/A

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 15.792; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 16.480
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-140); Over

Game 909-910: Cincinnati at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 15.827; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.337
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.086; Arizona (Kennedy) 16.412
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chatwood) 15.892; LA Dodgers (Lilly) 15.365
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+125); Over

Game 915-916: Houston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Harrell) 12.862; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.510
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-240); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-240); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pelfrey) 15.846; Detroit (Scherzer) 17.510
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-230); Over

Game 919-920: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 15.868; Kansas City (Davis) 14.834
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Under

Game 921-922: LA Angels at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Hanson) 14.894; Oakland (Straily) 14.516
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Over

Game 923-924: Baltimore at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Britton) 15.772; Seattle (Saunders) 13.857
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Under

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Padres at Chicago CubsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Chicago CubsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cubs and Padres open a four-game series at Wrigley Park Monday night where Jeff Smardzija matches serves with Clayton Richard. Smardzija takes the hill in strong KW form with 39 strikeouts and 10 walks this season while Richard is in wobbly KW form with 9 strikeouts and 11 walks this campaign. With the Cubs 10-5 the last 15 games in this park in this series, look for the better arm to come up big tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Cubs.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers -128FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wandy Rodriguez has not had much luck in his career against Milwaukee. His team is 9-14 when he gets the start. Yovani Gallardo on the other hand has had an extremely successful career against Pittsburgh. He is 9-1 and his team is 13-1 when starting against the Pirates. He has a career ERA of 2.35 against Pittsburgh and he is coming off solid back to back performances against San Francisco and San Diego.
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The Pirates are batting .207 on the road this season and they average just 3 runs per game. Going up against Wandy Rodriquez is a very favorable matchup advantage for the Brewers. Milwaukee is batting .282 against left handed starters and they have a .333 on base percentage. This will be the 8th consecutive road game for Pittsburgh and the Pirates have dropped the opening game of the series in three of their last four on the road.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs -150FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cubs (9-15) will host the Padres (9-15) on Monday night at Wrigley. Chicago has actually looked a lot better this season than they did a year ago. While they have a losing record, they have played some stiff competition early this season, and against a weaker Marlins team, they have just taken 3-of-4 in Miami.
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Jeff Samardzija will toe the rubber on Monday night, and he'll be looking to put an end to a four game losing streak. Samardzija (1-4, 3.30 ERA) has pitched quite well this season, and deserves better than his 1-4 record. He tossed six innings allowing one run on seven hits in a 1-0 loss to Cincy his last time out.
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The Padres will send Clayton Richard to the mound at Wrigley, and the left-hander was rocked in his last start. Richard (0-2, 7.04 ERA) only went 1 2/3 innings, allowing six runs on six hits. Richard gave up 31 home runs in 33 starts last season, and that's a scary thought for the southpaw heading into Wrigley.
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The Padres are coming off a three game sweep of the Giants, and they have won four in a row at home. They haven't been nearly as successful on the road though, with a record of 4-8 this year.
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This is a favorable matchup for the Cubs, and the price is more than reasonable to back the home team with superior pitching.

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New York Yankees -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I know what your thinking. I'm giving you snow in the winter. No worries we are using the run line at -1.5 and this game becomes much more reasonable. The Yankees have won all 6 times the last 10 seasons vs Houston, the last 5 by more than a run. The Yanks are off a come from behind win over Toronto, completing the sweep. They have Andy Pettite on the mound and we note that they are 13-0 when Pettite through more than 100 pitches in his last outing. New York has won 9 of those games by more than a run. Lucas Harell goes for Houston and he has lost his last 5 April Road starts. Finally we note that Houston has lost 17 of the last 20 as a road dog in this range with 16 of those losses by more than 1 run. Look for the Yankees to deal Houston another road loss. Take the Yankees on the run line.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Atlanta BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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True, Atlanta has hit the skids in a current four-game strreak, part of a 3-8 slump over the past eleven games. But the oddsmakers and wagering public appear to have once again been swayed by reputation and far overpriced Washington starter Stephen Strasburg, who lost an earlier matchup vs. Atlanta and has posted a 4.07 ERA in his last four starts but is still a prohibitive favorite for tonight's game in the Showcase City of the South. Nonetheless, Strasburg continues to be priced like he's the second coming of Walter Johnson despite a 6.28 career ERA at Turner Field. Not to mention the fact his Nats were swept in a three-game series by the Braves at Nationals Park earlier this month, when Atlanta outscored Washington a combined 18-5. Moreover, the Braves are on a 7-game series win streak, and they've won all of Julio Teheran's four starts, including his best effort of the season in his last outing, allowing only one run and eight hits ofver 7 innings of a 10-2 win over Colorado last Tuesday. Can't resist this tempting price on Atlanta.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What's wrong with Matt Cain? That's one of the big questions on the minds of Giants fans right now. The Giants have lost each of Cain's five starts and he's sporting a bloated 6.59 ERA. Naturally, there's plenty of concern among the team's faithful following.
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My advice to worried Giants fans would be to relax. There's just nothing to indicate that this is anything more than a short term blip for Cain. His velocity is down just a tick from where it usually resides, and that was mostly from one really bad start at St. Louis. Cain has a terrific BB/K ratio, and there's nothing out of the ordinary on the hit chart. About the only standout deviation is an abnormal HR/FB ratio. For Cain's career, that number is 6.9, this season it's 16.2. In other words, his mistakes are traveling a longer distance than they generally have in the past. But there's really nothing to suggest this is going to continue as Cain's stuff appears to be as good as ever.
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Ian Kennedy is also pitching a little better than his ERA would indicate, although the differential isn't as dramatic as Cain's. Kennedy is not a top tier starter, but he's solid. He's generally going to be above average and will give his team a chance to win most of his starts. I'd love to be able to pick apart his stats and give you a great reason to fade the Dismondbacks righty. But for the most part, Kennedy is pitching okay ball, and considering both his record at home and his good stats against the lineup he will face tonight, there's just nothing really negative here.
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My primary motivation for leaning to the Giants tonight is that Cain is now a little undervalued off what I would call a somewhat misleading slow start. The Giants have to be looking at this as a big game. They have now dropped five in a row after losing all three weekend scraps at Petco. The losing streak started with a pair of extra inning losses at home to the Diamondbacks, so there's a little payback in the mix tonight.
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The price on tonight's contest offers a bit of indication, in my opinion. With Cain owning the ugly ERA and the winless ledger, the Giants in a slump and the Diamondbacks on a current roll, it looks easy to take Arizona tonight at close to pick 'em odds. That will frequently get me looking at the other side, and with my perspective on Cain, I'm willing to shade the Giants as the right side tonight.

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Jim Feist

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

The NL West is a real free for all right now with 3 1/2 games separating first from fourth. The Rockies hold the top spot at 15-9 with the Dodgers in fourth at 11-12. Colorado has cooled a bit though, winning just five of the last 10 after Sunday's loss at Arizona, 4-2. The Dodgers took two of three games from the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers after winning Sunday's rubber match behind Clayton Kershaw, 2-0. The addition of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzales has been a shot in the arm to the lineup with both players hitting over .300 this season. Tyler Chatwood will start for the Rockies with a 0-0 Record and 6.00 ERA. Ted Lilly will toe the rubber for the Dodgers and also has no record this season with a 1.80 ERA. Lilly has been very good in his career against Colorado, posting a 10-2 mark with a 3.92 ERA in 14 games. Dodgers much better hitters at home than the road so don't mind laying a small price here with the home club. Colorado coming back down to earth these days too. Take the Dodgers here on Monday.

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Cajun SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds vs. St Louis CardinalsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: St Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We will take the host Cardinals on Monday evening in St. Louis as the Reds are 1-16 SU for a profit of +1487 Units as an underdog of +103 to +137 when they are coming off a win in which they never trailed. Take the Cards on Monday

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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Mets vs. MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: NY MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In about two months, this line might be closer to -225. Seriously. We all expected the Mets' Matt Harvey to be good, but not THIS good, at least this quickly.  In what is expected to be another down year in Queens, Harvey is unquestionably going to be the lone bright spot in a possible Cy Young campaign.  I obviously like him facing the sorry Miami Marlins to start the week.
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This may be a matchup of the game's best pitcher against its worst lineup.  Miami is atrocious.  They at least avoided a sweep here at home vs. the Cubs with a 6-4 win Sunday. But the club is still only 6-19 on the year and has dropped six of eight. Going into yesterday's game, they were averaging just 2.1 runs per game here at home while batting a collective .187! Over the last two years, they are 14-33 in the month of April. They are also working on a 5-20 run as a home dog of +125 to +175.
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Marlins starter Jose Fernandez has allowed a total of nine runs over the course of his last two starts, which spanned only nine innings.  That's more runs allowed than Harvey has given up all season. He's started five times and the Mets are 5-0 with Harvey allowing just six runs total in 35 innings. His ERA is 1.54 and his WHIP is an extraordinary 0.686.  He will easily shut down this Marlins lineup as the Mets recover from a weekend sweep at the hands of the Phillies.

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Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado vs. LA DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: LA DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tyler Chatwood (0-0, 6.00 ERA) gets the call for the visitors. Chatwood made his first start of the year on Wednesday vs. the Braves and gave up five runs off nine hits over six frames of work, lucky to come away with a no-decision (Chatwood was called up from Triple-A Colorado to make the spot start). He'll be opposed by Ted Lilly (0-0, 1.80 ERA) who also made his first start of the season last time out, but Lilly's experience was much better than Chatwood's as he'd strike out seven over five frames of one-run ball vs. the Mets. Lilly now has a big opportunity to build off that performance (note Lilly has posted a very respectable 3.71 ERA for his career at Dodgers Stadium). And while past success does not necessarily mean one will do so again in the future, it's still significant to note that Lilly was 2-0 with a respectable 4.38 ERA vs. Colorado last season. While the Rockies have jumped out to a quick start to the year, their achilles heel remains their play on the road, going just .500 entering Sunday away from friendly confines thus far. I believe the clear talent and experience level on the mound justifies in laying this mid-sized price.

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CHRIS JORDAN

My free play for tonight is a momentum play in Major League Baseball, as I'm taking a look at one of the worst team in the bigs - the Miami Marlins - catching a decent price against the New York Mets. Sometimes, you have to pinpoint the right times to side against a much-better team in a predicament, and tonight the value is with the Fish.

New York arrives after a tough homestand in which it lost its last four and six of nine in Queens against the Nationals, Dodgers and Phillies. After starting off with a decent 2-1 showing against preseason favorite Washington, the Mets dropped two of three to the Dodgers and then were swept by division-rival Philadelphia. Now, to have to travel and take on a Miami team that would love to kick any dog while its down, I think the Mets could be in trouble tonight.

The Marlins just beat the Cubs to snap a three-game skid, and have this last three-game set before heading out for a 10-game road trip that will send them to Philly and the West coast. They're going to want to start this series out on the right foot.

Momentum play on the home underdog Miami Marlins.

3* MIAMI

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SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner for Monday is on the San Francisco Giants, snapping this five-game losing streak, as I think they go into Phoenix saying enough is enough! The Arizona Diamondbacks are a formidable opponent, but they're beatable, and the Giants are the defending World Series champs.

So just because the Snakes are sitting in a first-place tie with the Colorado Rockies, in the National League West, doesn't mean the Giants can't take over the division lead by midweek. They're 2 games back of the Diamondbacks, and with a sweep would be in front, presumably if the Rockies don't go into Los Angeles and sweep the Dodgers.

That's the kind of mindset the Giants play with, generally, is that nothing is impossible, and I think they're going to be pissed off after being swept by last-place San Diego over the weekend.

Enough is enough! Take the Giants as a short road dog.

2* GIANTS

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Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SD Padres +130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Padres are a better hitting team away from Petco Park. Their bats alive have come alive, too. San Diego scored 14 runs in its last two games against the Giants at home blasting three home runs on Sunday.
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On paper, the Cubs have the superior starter going in Jeff Samardzija. But he's dropped his last four games with a 4.01 ERA during this span. The Padres are going with southpaw Clayton Richard, who is better than what he has shown and is past a nasty virus that caused him to miss his turn in the rotation two starts ago.
San Diego hasn't committed an error in 12 straight games and has the more reliable bullpen. The Padres also are playing well now with four straight wins.
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The Cubs have a losing record against left-handers. Richard has pitched well against the Cubs going 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA in two starts giving up one run in 15 2/3 innings.

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Wunderdog

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +115

It is a matter of time before the Angels go on a run, as they are too talented to continue struggling. Oakland made its mark early in the season as they rattled off nine straight wins, but otherwise they have been bad. Over their last 10 games they stand at just 2-8 and have fallen to .500 at home. Dan Straily has had problems with the Angel's lineup a year ago, as he pitched to a 6.35 ERA against them. The Angels have thrived after a great pitching performance, as they are 12-3 in their last 15 after allowing 2 or less runs in their previous game. By the same token, the A's have been 3-8 in their last 11 when facing a team that allowed 2 or less in their previous game. The Angels have found comfort here, as they have won six of the last eight in Oakland. Play on the Angels in this one.

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MLB Predictions

Houston Astros +228

The Astros are coming off being swept in 4 games by the Red Sox to fall to 7-18 on the year and 3-10 on the road, while the Yankees are coming off a 4 game sweep of the Blue Jays and are 15-9 on the year and 9-4 at home. Despite that I think we are getting Houston at a generous underdog price here at +228 given the pitching match up. Lucas Harrell will take the mound for the Astros and he is 2-2 on the season with a 4.08, .283 OBA and 1.57 WHIP. In his last start he pitched 7 innings giving up just 1 earned run, and over his last three starts he has a 1.96 ERA. In 5 starts he has allowed more than 2 earned runs just once. The Astros are 2-3 in games that Harrell starts. Andy Pettitte will get the start for the Yankees and he has had a great start going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA, 2.48 OBA and 1.13 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has a 2.66 ERA, and the team is 3-1 in games he has started in. Although the Yankees seem like the obvious choice here I think the price gives us value on taking Houston as big road underdogs.


Baltimore Orioles -108

The Orioles are coming off a 9-8 loss in Oakland yesterday, but they have won 5 of their last 7 games and are 15-10 on the season (8-5 on the road). The Mariners have won 2 straight and 3 of 4, but continue to score runs as they’ve scored 3 or fewer in 3 straight. While Baltimore is 2nd in the MLB with 129 runs scored in 25 games played (5.16 runs per game) the Mariners are 25th with just 87 runs scored in 27 games played (3.22 runs per game). Tonight we will see an all south paw match up with Zach Britton taking on former Oriole starter Joe Saunders. Britton is making his first start in the Majors this year after posting a 1.98 ERA over three starts in Triple-A. Last year he was 5-3 with a 5.07 ERA over 12 appearances and 11 starts. Joe Saunders has made 5 starts this year and is 1-3 with a 6.33 ERA, .330 OBA and 1.78 WHIP. Although he has had success at Safeco Field, I think his old teammates will be able to rough him up a bit. In his last two starts he has pitched 9.2 innings giving up 20 hits and 15 earned runs. Baltimore is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a left handed stater, and 8-1 in their last 9 vs AL West opponents. The Mariners are just 1-4 in games where Saunders has started, and they are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs left handed starters. The Orioles have won 8 straight vs Seattle and 5 straight in Seattle. I’m on Baltimore tonight.

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Bob Balfe

Pacers +1.5 over Hawks

The Pacers played as bad as a team could play on offense the other day. I really don't think its much of what the Hawks did. Indiana just had a horrible shooting day. This team is still superior in the rebounding department and as you know the more boards you get means the less chances a team gets to score against you and more chances you get to score on them. Its all about playing the odds. The Pacers are the better team and we will take them tonight. Take Indiana.


Rockets +1 over Thunder

The Thunder were very lucky to have won the other night. They got out to a huge 1st quarter lead, but other than that the Rockets dominated. OKC had some wild shots that bounced on the rim 3 times and went in. This team can't run their offense with Westbrook out. Kevin Duarant is a superstar, but he really is not cut out for these situations as the main focus of an offense. Houston shoots the ball very well and I think once they get out to a 8-10 pt lead the Thunder will give in without a true ball handler. Take the Rockets.


Royals -150 over Indians

I remember when Ubaldo Jimenez started out the first half of the season as good as any pitcher I ever have seen a few years ago. Since then he has been awful. Makes you wonder if he was juicing at the time because this guy is as brutal of a starting pitcher as you are going to see. The Indians have not done well against right handed pitching this year and this Royals bullpen has been nothing short of amazing. Kansas City is going to compete this year. Take the Royals.

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Jack Jones

Milwaukee Brewers -124

The Milwaukee Brewers should be a much heavier favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Brewers at an excellent price in this one.

The reason the Brewers are undervalued is because Yovani Gallardo has gotten off to a slow start this season, while Wandy Rodriquez has gotten off to a fast one for the Pirates. However, I have no doubt that Gallardo is the better starter in this one.

That's evident when you look at his lifetime numbers against tonight's opponent. Gallardo is 9-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 14 career starts against Pittsburgh. In fact, the Brewers are a sensational 13-1 in those games.

This play falls into a system that is 47-9 (83.9%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL.

Milwaukee is 61-24 (+25.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. Gallardo is 18-2 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Pirates are 7-44 in the last 51 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet the Brewers Monday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 29

TJ Pemberton

Oklahoma City Thunder -1

Well we saw the the best team in the East sweep their first round match-up as the Miami Heat took care of business against the Milwaukee Bucks who has no business being in the Playoffs anyway. Then last night we saw the San Antonio Spurs handle the LA Lakers as they feel apart with not only injuries but lack of motivation and having that will to win.

Tonight we will check out the Oklahoma City Thunder try to close out their series in just 4 games as they visit Houston tonight. The OKC Thunder took a big loss at Westbrook goes out and will be done for the rest of the Playoffs. Life without Westbrook in the 3rd game of the series was going fine as the Thunder were up huge and were in complete control. The Rockets made a late game run and made things interesting but the Thunder will handle things tonight and advance by sweeping this series 4-0.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 29

Dave Price

Washington Nationals -123

The Nationals have lost each of Stephen Strasburg's last 4 starts, but that won't keep me off them here. The Nationals' ace has pitched plenty well enough to be 4-1 instead of 1-4, as evidence by the fact his ERA is just 3.16. The Braves have won all 4 of Julio Teheran's starts but were fortunate to do so as he's posted an ERA of 5.48. The Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 games as a road favorite and 10-2 in Strasburg's last 12 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Take Washington.

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