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Farmers Insurance Open Betting News and Notes

Farmers Insurance Open Betting News and Notes

Farmers Insurance Open Preview and Picks
By Matt Fargo

The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. Last week, Brian Gay birdied the second playoff hole to win the Humana Challenge over Charles Howell III and David Lingmerth. It was the fourth PGA Tour title for Gay who will be taking this week off as 156 golfers will be eyeing the $6,000,000 purse this week in what is the biggest field of the young PGA Tour season.

Torrey Pines North and South courses are the hosts for the 46th consecutive year and it really does not get much better than that. Torrey Pines is one of the few municipal courses on the schedule and still plays as one of the tougher stops on tour, namely the South course which is the sole course used on the weekend. The South ranked as the 11th hardest for a second straight year in difficulty while the North was the third easiest last season.

Scoring low on the North course is imperative because the South will not give in. The South Course is the longest course on Tour at 7,698 yards but that does not mean big hitters will dominate. Expereience is the biggest factor this week as a mix of small greens with Poa annua can cause havoc for many. Only the U.S. Open has gone longer than the Farmers in a first timer winning as you have to go back to 1957 when Arnold Palmer captured the tournament in his first trip here.

This was a tough tournament to watch last year on Sunday as Kyle Stanley blew a seven-shot lead following a triple bogey on the 72nd hole to send the tournament into a playoff that was eventually won by Brandt Snedeker on the second playoff hole. Stanley got his revenge however as he overcame a six-shot deficit on Sunday to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open the following week.

To no surprise, Tiger Woods (+650) is the heavy favorite this week. After a T44 here in 2011, he skipped last year to play in the Abu Dhabi Championship. He is back this year after missing the cut in the United Arab Emirates last week because of a fluke penalty due to a drop. He is a six-time winner of this event but this will be just his second start in the last five years here. We will use him as a hedge.

Bubba Watson (+1,500) has been off since the opening Hyundai Tournament of Champions where he finished T4 in the rain-shortened event. He finished T13 at Torrey Pines a year ago but the odd years have been the best as he finished T4 in 2007, T7 in 2009 and was the winner in 2011 as he won by a shot over Phil Mickelson. He has finished 12th or better in five of his last six events.

Nick Watney (+2,000) also has not played since Kapalua where he finished T14 after the 54-hole weather shortened event. That was his first go around with his new Nike equipment and he was clearly more comfortable than Rory McIlroy was overseas. He has also liked the odds years as Watney won here is 2009 and finished T6 in 2011 after a Sunday 63. He has been in the top ten in four of his 10 starts here.

Hunter Mahan (+3,000) won twice before April last season but carded only two top tens the rest of the way which was part of the reason he missed the Ryder Cup team. He has gained a new perspective after a near disaster in Israel in November and following a T26 at the Hyundai, he is back to a place that has treated him well. He has finished tied for sixth in each of the last two years at the Farmers.

Bill Haas (+4,000) fell apart on us last week but we will go back with him here as the extra day off hopefully will help. He has an exceptional history at Torrey Pines as he has finished T11 or better in three of his last four appearances including a T4 last year as he opened with a Friday 63 but was still a shot off the lead. He has shot even par or better in 19 of his last 24 rounds here.

For a longshot, we will take a look at Jimmy Walker (+5,000). He has opened 2013 with a couple top 25's after closing last year with a T10 and a T4 so he should keep the momentum going. He has never won on tour but the time will come and this could be the place. After missing the cut here in 2009 and 2010, he broke through with a T29 in 2011 and last year a Friday 65 helped him earn a T8.

Recommended Tournament Win Six Pack at the Farmers Insurance Open - All for 1 Unit

Tiger Woods (+650)
Bubba Watson (+1,500)
Nick Watney (+2,000)
Hunter Mahan (+3,000)
Bill Haas (+4,000)
Jimmy Walker (+5,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 3 events: -15 Units

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Re: Farmers Insurance Open Betting News and Notes

PGA Tour Odds and Picks
By: Rick Herron

LAS VEGAS -- The PGA Tour returns to sunny San Diego this week with the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This is traditionally what I consider the start of the year in golf, as I don’t get too involved in January with the NFL playoffs in full swing.

Torrey Pines is one beautiful piece of land on the cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean just north of San Diego. I had the pleasure of playing there almost 40 years ago and have never forgotten it. The golf course is public, it’s a great layout and the scenery is second to none.

This was the scene of Kyle Stanley’s meltdown on Sunday last year. Stanley came to 18 with a three-shot lead and promptly made a triple bogey to fall into a playoff with Brandt Snedeker. Stanley lost the playoff but came back to win the Phoenix Open the next week with a big comeback of his own.

The way Torrey Pines sets up usually results in an exciting finish. So let’s take a look at a couple of guys who might have some value this week.

Tiger Woods, 13-2: Even though Tiger missed the cut last week in Dubai because of a two-shot penalty, he always has to be considered a contender at Torrey Pines. He won this event four-straight years, from 2005–2008, and he has won it six times in all. That's not even counting his miraculous 2008 U.S. Open win at this course, when he was basically playing on one leg. So overall, he has seven wins on this course, and he skipped the event to play in Europe last year. Do you think he likes it here?

Nick Watney, 20-1: Watney has four top 10s in his last six starts at Torrey Pines, and he won this event in 2009 by posting 11-under par. He shot 63 in the final round in 2011 to tie for 6th. This is his fourth tournament with new equipment, so he should be getting adjusted.

Bo Van Pelt, 25-1: Van Pelt is one of those guys who has become a better player as he has gotten older. The 37-year-old is solid, as he proved last year, and this is a course he can do very well on. He makes a lot of birdies, and it’s been a long time since anyone has won this tournament at less than 10-under par. Actually, the last time was 1979.

Bill Haas, 40-1: Haas also plays this course well. He has been in the top 11 three of the last four times here. He has been even par or better in 14 of his last 16 rounds on this layout. Last year he tied for fourth. This could be a breakout year for Haas.

Aaron Baddeley, 80-1: Baddeley tied for 27th at the Humana Challenge after opening with a 64 and being two shots out of the lead after the second round. He has a game that is similar to Snedeker, last year’s winner, and should do well again this year. Hey, and 80-1 is 80-1.

When betting golf tournaments – or anything else – you should try to find value. And yes, on this golf course, Tiger Woods presents value at 13-2. He did win three tournaments last year, although people seem to have forgotten that.

Enjoy the tournament and the scenery...

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