Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 25

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 25

DUNKEL INDEX

Game 221-222: Oakland at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.244; Cincinnati 137.024
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 8; 49
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-8); Under

Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.379; Cleveland 130.374
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 43
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 225-226: Buffalo at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.083; Indianapolis 1329.558
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 51
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Under

Game 227-228: Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 135.980; Kansas City 126.942
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 11; 44
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+11); Over

Game 229-230: Tennessee at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 126.170 Jacksonville 122.308
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-2 1/2); Under

Game 231-232: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.718; Chicago 131.656
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3; 46
Vegas Line:  No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 233-234: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.998; Tampa Bay 138.760
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1);

Game 235-236: Seattle at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.112; Miami 129.501
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over

Game 237-238: Baltimore at San Diego (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.595; San Diego 133.439
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+1); Under

Game 239-240: San Francisco at New Orleans (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.167; New Orleans 139.257
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 47
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 241-242: St. Louis at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 129.779; Arizona 127.752
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+2 1/2); Over

Game 243-244: Green Bay at NY Giants (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.596; NY Giants 143.582
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Under

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26

Game 245-246: Carolina at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 131.535; Philadelphia 125.043
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

CFL

Calgary at Toronto
The Stampeders look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 road games. Calgary is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-1 1/2)

Game 291-292: Calgary at Toronto (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 119.616; Toronto 113.001
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 6 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Calgary by 1 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-1 1/2); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

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Chris Elliott
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San Francisco vs. New Orleans
Pick: San Francisco
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The Niners defense has been awesome all season led by the #2 pass defense holding opponents to 182.9 YPG. The Saints will be forced to run the ball against the Niners 7th ranked rush defense with all pro LB Patrick Willis in the middle and LB Aldon Smith recording 5.5 sacks last game. This matchup doesn't bode well for the Saints 26th ranked rush offense. Take the Niners on the road as the slim favorite to win ATS.
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Coach Jim Harbaugh hasn't announced who will start Sunday but after they way rookie QB Kaepernick shredded the Bears 8th ranked pass defense for a 133.1 QB rating it should be a no brainer. The Niners travel to New Orleans coming off their most impressive victory this season in my opinion with a dominating 32-7 home thrashing of the Chicago Bears (7-3). The Bears offensive line had no answer for LB Aldon Smith who recorded 5.5 sacks and 7 hits on QB Campbell. The defense has really come together in the last 4 games allowing a mere 10.0 PPG. The team is 7-2-1 SU, 6-4 ATS and 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road. The offense ranks 13th scoring 24.5 PPG and the defense ranks 1st allowing 13.4 PPG for a net differential of +11.1 PPG.
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The Saints have been a tale of two teams opening the season with 4 straight losses before winning 5 of their last 6 for a record of 5-5 SU on the season and 6-4 ATS. They have won 3 straight home games including an impressive victory over the Falcons to break their win streak to open the season. The team has scored 28.7 PPG to rank 4th in the NFL while they are ranked 27th giving up 27.3 PPG for a net differential of +1.4 PPG.
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The Niners have the top ranked rush offense while the Saints have the worst ranked rush defense. Expect the Niners to hammer the ball down the Saints throats.
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This is a battle of the NFL's 2nd ranked pass defense vs. the 3rd ranked pass offense. The Niners defense has been awesome all season holding their opponents to 13.4 PPG to rank 1st in the NFL led by the pass defense holding opponents to 182.9 YPG. The Saints will be forced to run the ball this game against the Niners 7th ranked rush defense with all pro LB Patrick Willis in the middle. This matchup doesn't bode well for the Saints 26th ranked rush offense. Take the Niners on the road as the slim favorite to win ATS.

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Art Aronson
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Minnesota vs. Chicago
Pick: Minnesota
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The Bears are being asked to lay a few too many points for me against a divisional opponent in Minnesota. I like taking the points with the Vikings in what should be a very highly contested contest.
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Chicago is coming off a short work week after getting beat on MNF against the 49ers and has a very tough matchup in the Minnesota Vikings.  There is a lot of value here in a NFC north division rival matchup that could easily go the Vikings way.
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The Vikings are 2-0 SU and ATS this year in the division and have had a decent year moving the ball with Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder.  This pair has the tools to mimic Houston and San Fran’s victory over the bears recently, throwing the ball intermittently and having a strong ground game.  Not only that but on the defensive side we could see a repeat of past Bears games as they may have trouble protecting the QB behind the offensive line.  It’s not a stretch to think that Jared Allen will have a big day after the days that Clay Matthews and Aldon Smith had for their respective teams so far this year versus this o-line.
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Remember, the Vikings are coming in off a bye week and should be itching to come out with energy to beat another NFC north opponent after taking care of Detroit more than a week ago now.
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There is so much health uncertainty surrounding the Bears and it’s a stretch to think they can score in bunches to cover larger spreads.  The Bears are always tough at Soldier field but the northern weather and outdoor temp may dictate a strong run game for both teams which could not only benefit in Minnesota’s favor but also work to keep the game close for the line.  With the Bears yet to prove themselves against a real quality team,  I think it’s a stretch to not only call them elite, but to lay this many points against a tough opponent in Minnesota.
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Note: Jay Cutler is questionable for this game. Even if he returns I still like taking the points with the Vikings.  The team has been struggling to move the ball with just 13 points in the last two games. I realize those were tough defenses in Houston and San Francisco, but Minnesota is no picnic.

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Buffalo vs. Indianapolis
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Is the luck of starting rookie quarterbacks in the league this year finally over? Not really. The Fab Five still shine at home where they are 15-8-1 ATS this season. So why is it we’re ready to hop off the Andrew Luck bandwagon this week, you ask? Could it have anything to do with the fact that the Colts are 0-9 ATS at home in games against non-division foes off a SUATS win? Perhaps. Or the fact that Buffalo head coach Chan Gailey is 7-1-1 ATS in his last nine games against non-division opponents off a SUATS Loss? Maybe. The truth of the matter is we love the fact that the five starting rookie QB’s in the league this year are just 5-9 ATS when laying points. And with the Colts a super-depressing 4-13 SU and 2-15 ATS in games against .400 or weaker opposition, we’re riding herd with Buffalo today.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.

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Teddy Covers
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Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
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When a very bad offensive team improves, it can take weeks for the betting markets to catch up.  Jacksonville spent most of the season as an inept offensive ballclub.  QB Blaine Gabbert struggled.  First round draft choice Justin Blackmun struggled.  The Jags had no running game after Maurice Jones-Drew got hurt. And the Jags spent two months mired in offensive doldrums.
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Last week, the Jags got a major spark with Chad Henne coming off the bench for Gabbert and finding immediate rhythm with Blackmun and the rest of the receiving corps.  Blackmun nearly matched his yardage total from the first nine games combined; Henne looked like the QB who Miami drafted as their QB of the future back in 2008, throwing a career high four touchdowns and a career high 10.7 yards per attempt, and the Jags offense exploded for 37 points against a solid Texans defense.  Facing a Titans defense that has been nothing short of awful for extended stretches this year, look for Henne and the Jags offense to enjoy another strong afternoon here.
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Jacksonville's defense is not getting fixed any time soon.  They allowed the second most passing yards in NFL history to Matt Schaub last week, a 39 first down performance from the Texans offense.  Tennessee, like Houston, has an offense with quick strike weapons and good run/pass balance.  The Titans, fresh off their bye, can put themselves back into the playoff equation with a win here, and their defense is anything but a trustworthy unit; ranked #31 in the NFL in points allowed.  Coach Mike Munchak's gameplan is simple -- his team hasn't won a game while scoring less than 26 points.  Expect Tennessee's emphasis to be on outscoring the Jaguars as opposed to shutting them down, in a game that has legitimate 'shootout' potential.  Take the Over.

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Bryan Power
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Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Tennessee
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I'm usually not a big fan of NFL road favorites, but this is more of a play AGAINST Jacksonville than anything else. Sure Jacksonville was highly competitive last Sunday, losing in overtime to the 9-1 Texans 43-37, in what was by far their best offensive day of the season.  But what are the chances the 1-9 Jags come back with another strong offensive showing?
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I say "not very likely" and the fact the Titans are off their bye week makes them an even more attractive candidate to lay points with this week.
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Jacksonville has little in the way of home field advantage, arguably the worst in the league.  In five home games thus far, they have lost every time by at least a 17-point margin, and by an average of 21.8 points per game.  Ugly.  QB Chad Henne had a career day in the loss to Houston last week, throwing for 354 yards.  But this is a Jaguars offense that still ranks 29th in the league at 16.4 PPG. They had not scored more than 23 points in any game prior to last week. Their defense is also lousy, ranking near the bottom of the league in both yards and points allowed (28.9 PPG). They allowed 640 total yards last week to the Texans.
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If a Tennessee fan, you have to love the fact running back Chris Johnson has run for 561 yards over his last four games, averaging over seven yards per carry. Before their bye week, the Titans played their best game of the year, handing Miami its worst home loss since 1968, winning 37-3 as an underdog.  Jake Locker gives the team a better chance at quarterback than over the hill Matt Hasselbeck.

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Jimmy Boyd
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Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5
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The Steelers will be without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for a second straight week as he continues to recover from shoulder and rib injuries. They went down without him last week, but only by three points to the 8-2 Baltimore Ravens.
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With Roethlisberger ruled out and Bryon Leftwich out as well with a rib injury, the Steelers will turn to 37-year-old veteran Charlie Batch. You might be surprised to find out that doing so has normally yielded a positive result. The Steelers are 5-2 with Batch starting in place of Roethlisberger over the last decade.
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Batch completed 15 of 22 passes for 208 yards in a 27-0 victory over St. Louis in his last start Dec. 24.
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The Steelers rarely lose consecutive games, and their defense is a big reason why. The Pittsburgh stop unit leads the NFL in total defense with 259.1 yards allowed per game. It ranks fourth in scoring defense with 19.0 points allowed per contest.
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Pittsburgh is an awesome 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 games following a loss and has won by an average of 16.8 points in these games.
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In addition, the Steelers have completely owned Cleveland. They have won 22 of the last 24 meetings, including four in a row by an average of 16.3 points. The Steelers have also won two straight and 13 of their last 15 visits to Cleveland.
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Lay the small number as the Steelers have the edge here.

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Jack Jones
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Indianapolis Colts -3
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The Colts have clearly played their best football at home this season. They are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this year. They have won four of their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road against the New England Patriots last week.
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Buffalo has really struggled on the road, going 2-4 straight up and 3-3 against the spread. It has scored an average of 19.0 points per game while giving up 30.2 points per game in those contests. As you can see, it is getting outscored by an average of 11.2 points per game away from home.
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What most people don’t realize about Indianapolis is the fact that it has one of the top offenses in the NFL. It ranks an astonishing 4th in the league in total offense at 393.4 yards per game. Andrew Luck and company should have their way with a soft Buffalo stop unit that ranks 27th in the league in total defense at 387.4 yards per game.
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This play falls into a system that is 40-16 (71.4%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against any team (BUFFALO) – a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.
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The Bills are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games. Bet the Colts Sunday.

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Steve Janus
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Atlanta Falcons -1
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The Falcons were able to escape last Sunday’s game against Arizona with a 23-19 victory. The win improved Atlanta to 9-1 on the season and it got them back on track after a disappointing 27-31 loss at New Orleans in Week 10. As many of you know, the Falcons weren’t even close to covering the 10-point spread in that game. Atlanta has now failed to cover the number in two straight games, which has me thinking they are showing some value as a small favorite.
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Atlanta has been outstanding in close games this season. Six of their nine wins this year have come by 6-points or less. Given how well Tampa Bay has played of late, you would expect a very close game on Sunday. Hard to not like the team that continues to find ways to pull out a W late in games. The Buccaneers are just 2-4 in games that have been decided by 7 points or less.
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I personally think the Buccaneers are a little overrated right now. The only team they have beat this season with a winning record is Minnesota, which certainly backs that up. This is a big game for Atlanta. They can pretty much lock up the division with a win this week. They would have a four-game lead with five to play. I expect the Falcons absolute best on Sunday, especially after how bad they looked last week against Arizona.

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears    
Play: Chicago Bears
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The Bears are getting Jay Cutler back on Sunday after a pitiful offensive showing without him on Monday night. The Vikings on the other hand will be without Percy Harvin, who has been their only real weapon in the passing game. Peterson has been good this year, but letting one of the best defenses in the league key up to stop a one dimensional offense is a sure sign the Bears win and cover in Chicago on Sunday.

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Chip ChirimbesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins    
Play: Miami Dolphins
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Both clubs coming off their bye weeks so there is no distinct advantage to be gain by either side expect that the Seahawks are making the longest NFL road trip of the year from Seattle to Miami. The Hawks led by rookie Russell Wilson are 6-4 and playoff bound and that great but look closer. Seattle is 5-0 at home and only 1-4 on the road. Now, we have a rookie quarterback favored on the road. Miami has won nine of the last 13 meetings and will establish Reggie Bush here and win outright.

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Jordan Runco
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Packers vs. Giants
Play: Over 50½
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This could be a preview of the NFC Championship game. The Green Bay Packers (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) lost the playoff game at home, after beating the Giants in the regular season. Last week, the Packers beat Detroit on the road, 24-20 giving 3, while the Giants beat Cincinnati two weeks ago, 31-13. The Giants are coming off a bye. Last year: Green Bay (-6’) over NY GIANTS, 38-35; NY Giants (+8) over GREEN BAY, 37-20.
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Odds: The oddsmakers have installed the Giants as a 3-point favorite. The total is 50.5 in most books.
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Line Movement: The NY Giants opened as a 2.5-point favorite and moved to 3 at most books. The total started at 49 and moved to 50.5 in most books.
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NFL FREE PICK: OVER Green Bay/NY Giants. Latest trends: Packers are 11-4 Over last 15 vs. NFC, 5-0 Over last 5 in series, 15-6 Over last 21 overall and 12-5 Over last 17 following a SU win. N.Y. Giants are 5-1 Over last 6 in Week 12 and are 5-2 Over last 7 following a SU loss.
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The Giants are coming off a bye and it couldn’t have come at a better time for Tom Coughlin and company. The Giants are coming off a 31-13 road loss to Cincinnati on Nov. 11, giving 3.5. The good news is that the bye will heal some injuries and the Giants’ 9th-ranked passing game will need to go back to the drawing board. Green Bay struggled against Detroit last week and still won 24-20 on the road. Aaron Rodgers should shred the Giants’ secondary. After a bit of a slow start, Rodgers has heated up as the Packers have won five straight and six of seven. He leads the NFL with a 107.3 rating and has 27 touchdown passes against six interceptions. New York ranks 25th against the pass and surrendered 415 passing yards against Dallas in Week 8. Green Bay's defense will be shorthanded with cornerback Charles Woodson out with a broken collarbone and linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) listed as questionable.

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Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears    
Play: Chicago Bears
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Without Jay Cutler, Chicago's offense was lost LW. The QB is most-likely returning on Sunday. It wasn't just Cutler's arm that was missed, but his leadership as well. The team's top WR, Brandon Marshall (925 YP and 8 TDs) will hook up with Cutler to slash the Minnesota secondary. The QB is 5-1 with a career passer-rating of 100.8 vs. the Vikings. With Cutler doing his thing, this allows RB, Matt Forte to open up the ground game. Minny allows 24.8 PPG TY on the road. They have crushed bettors, away from home, going 1-5 ATS. Overall, the team is 0-5 both SU and ATS, the L5 meetings with Chicago. Things will go from bad to worse in this rivalry as their only receiving star, Percy Harvin is out due to an ankle injury. This leaves the bulk of the load on the shoulders of RB, Adrian Peterson. The Bears LB corps is stout and hungry to avenge LWs loss. They will key on Peterson and shut down the Vikings offense. Take Chicago.

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis Rams
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Coming off an embarrassing tie game, we will side with the visiting Rams with a few points in hand as they look to sweep their division rival Cardinals. The Rams have already taken care of the Cardinals this year, a 17-3 win in St. Louis. The Cardinals' offense had no answer for the Rams D with only three points scored and now with their third stringer behind center, we don't see how they can do any better. The Rams will want to exploit the weak Arizona run defense that gives up almost 120 yards per game on the ground. Steven Jackson is in line for a huge day and that could open up the play action pass for Sam Bradford. If the Rams can limit their mistakes, with the points in hand the Rams have the talent to win this game outright. Go against the public and take the Rams.

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SPORTS WAGERS
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Pittsburgh -1½ over CLEVELAND
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Are we on Candid Camera? The Steelers have owned the Browns. Actually, everybody has. Pittsburgh has won 16 of 17 against this foe and it has not been less than a 6½-point favorite over the Brownies in their past 9 contests. Cleveland has won three of its past 20 football games. The Browns have been an underdog in every game this year. Pittsburgh has been favored seven times and has been the dog only at Denver, at the Giants and last week to Baltimore. So if this isn’t a gag, why the short price? We’re well aware of the Steelers’ quarterback issues but is veteran Charlie Batch that big of a drop-off from rookie QB Brandon Weeden? We do see improvement in the Browns but they still don’t know how to win.
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Pittsburgh’s offense might have some limitations here but its top ranked defense is facing a Browns team that ranks 28th in total yards. Steelers unlikely to lose consecutive divisional games when the back end is this host and knowing Baltimore is on deck.
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Oakland +8 -110 over CINCINNATI
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The Raiders last win came against the Chiefs. Since then, they’ve lost three in a row and have allowed a combined 135 points. Rarely do NFL teams get blown out every game for a month. These players do have some pride and having the Bengals favored this heavily is embarrassing and insulting. A response is in order. 
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You may have to go back to Boomer Esiason days to find the Bengals spotting this many points. That’s not encouraging when you consider that Cincinnati has just four covers in past 18 when giving away any points at all. Oakland is a train wreck but ex-Bengal Carson Palmer is familiar with this foe and he’s certainly going to be jacked up to play them after an acrimonious split. This could be the upset of the week.
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SAN DIEGO -1 -104 over Baltimore
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It’s never comfortable having the Chargers as a ‘Best’ but sometimes the line dictates our recommendation. Baltimore has been living somewhat of a charmed life. Yes, this is a league where wins and losses are all that ultimately matter but that does not exclude us from taking advantage of misperceptions.
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We won’t go through it but the Ravens’ 8-2 mark could easily be around the 4-4 mark right now. This once daunting defence currently ranks 25th in the league and 23rd vs. the pass. Baltimore just played in Pittsburgh, will fly out west for this one and then will play Pittsburgh again. They’ll do that with an injury list that’s as long as Santa’s delivery list. As for the Chargers, there is no denying their unreliable play but they return home after two away against two smoking hot clubs in the Bucs and Broncos. This is too good of a situation to ignore.
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TENNESSEE -4 over Jacksonville
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The Texans thought the Jaguars were a joke so the defense took the day off. The Jags almost made them pay. Instead, all they did was push Warren Moon to the side in the record books and that’s our CFL reference of the week. The Jaguars may have had their best performance of the season but at the end of the day, they still lost and took nearly five quarters to do so. That can be demoralizing. Now the Jags return home where they’re 0-5 this year. Chad Henne will now start for the Jaguars but it’s not like he’s new on the NFL scene. Perhaps he was never afforded a good opportunity to excel but are the Jags any better than the Miami teams he was on? Titans are rested and off their best game of the season. Prefer to side with that.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 25

SPORTS WAGERS
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Buffalo +3 -113 over INDIANAPOLIS
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Not sure if young Colts are mature enough to bounce back from 59-24 trouncing a week ago. The Bills may not win often but they can march up and down the field on most days. Buffalo still averages 30 points per opponent and quietly, the defence is improving. If the AFC East Pats can wallop Indy, Bills should at least stay close.
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Indy is right in the thick of the playoff race. Its over/under win total for the year was 5½ and they’ve already won six times. They’ve accomplished more than expected and now they’ll head down the stretch with higher expectations. Let’s see that they can thrive in that role before spotting points with them. No units risked.
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DENVER -10½ -104 over Kansas City
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Must we? Tough to lay this lumber, on the road, in a division game. But when push comes to shove, would rather be on the hot Denver side than this dreadful Chiefs team. Kansas City has lost six straight. They have reached 16 points only once during that stretch. They continue to turn the ball over at an alarming rate and to compound problems, they are missing three starters. Chiefs’ starting quarterback is a Browns’ reject. Welcome to hell. No units risked.
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Atlanta -1 -105 over TAMPA BAY
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Falcons won last week despite an uncharacteristic five interceptions by QB Matt Ryan. You can bet that Matty Ice will be more careful with the ball this week and that should spell trouble against Tampa’s 32nd ranked pass defense.
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The Bucs are on a four game winning streak and are averaging 34 points a game over the last six weeks. Scoring at a high pace with no defense can get you by and even into the playoffs. However, you can’t keep expecting to put up 35 a game to keep winning and unlike the last two teams the Bucs have defeated, the Bolts and Panthers, the Falcons know how to close out a game. No units risked.
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MIAMI +3 -110 over Seattle
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The Seahawks have one road victory this season to go along with four losses. Now, they’re not only required to win but to do so by a margin. We’re not fond of that at all. The Seahawks live and die by their defense and the rushing prowess of Marshawn Lynch. Any passing is just to keep the defenses honest and to score some in home games.
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This is really a buy low opportunity, as Miami has lost three straight topped off by last week’s poor showing in Buffalo on Thursday night. Prior to that, a 37-3 beating they took from Tennessee is not easy to forget either. A rebound performance by the Dolphins is more likely than not. Seattle’s off the bye but Fish also on extra rest, which figures to aid them more than visitor making extremely long trek to get here. Seattle continues to prove year after year that they’re not to be trusted when leaving the Northwest. No units risked.
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San Francisco -107 over NEW ORLEANS
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Say what you will about Alex Smith but when Colin Kaepernick was forced to start last week against the Bears, you could see a spring in the 49ers’ step. Coach Jim Harbaugh saw it too and has opted to go with the exciting youngster. San Fran brought down the Bears in short order and were dominant in every facet of the game. Now instead of playing a top defense, they get to go face one at the other end of the spectrum.
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The Saints offense continues to play at an elite level but had this game been played three weeks ago, the Niners would’ve been a four-point choice or more. The Saints’ stock has risen with three straight wins but two of those came against the Eagles and Raiders. The other win was over Atlanta in a game that could’ve gone either way when Atlanta failed to score on a 2nd and goal from the 1-yard line late in the fourth. As a result of those three wins by New Orleans, we get to back a 49ers squad at a deflated price. No units risked.
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ARIZONA -1 -110 over St. Louis
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The Cardinals will have Ryan Lindley, a sixth-round draft pick, make his first NFL start this weekend. Yet, the Cardinals, losers of six straight, are still favoured. What does that tell you? The Rams are winless on the road and they just were punched in the mouth at home by the Jets.
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What is most noteworthy here is the Cardinals recent schedule over the past three weeks that saw them play Green Bay, San Fran and Atlanta. They were in a position to win the latter two. After facing that trio of playoff bound clubs, facing this anemic offense should appear in slow motion for the Cardinals. Remember that 4-0 start? Cardinals get off the mattress here. No units risked.
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N.Y. GIANTS -3 +102 over Green Bay
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Giants had lost two straight prior to their bye. They had also lost their lustre with the betting public and with this past week off, they are somewhat forgotten. This is when they’re at their best. The G-Men were a battered bunch, much like these current Packers, and they needed the break. Expect a strong return against a hurting Green Bay team traveling on consecutive weeks. Eli Manning has shown that he can handle the Packers when they’re healthy. Manning threw for 347 yards and three scores when these teams met in the regular season in 2011 and he passed for 330 yards and three touchdowns in the subsequent playoff meeting.
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The Packers rushing is the worst in the NFL with only two touchdowns scored by a running back all year. No runner has gained more than 65 yards since Benson left and while James Starks was given 25 carries last week, he only gained 74 yards. A one-dimensional offense against what should be a refocused Giants club is going to be tough to overcome. No units risked.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 25

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Pittsburgh Steelers -1
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This has all the makings of a cage match on a football field. Everybody always knows all about the Steelers and their well earned reputation as a hard hitting, rock solid defensive unit. Well guys, this years edition of the Cleveland Browns can also defend. I suspect with the Steelers down to their third string QB, Charlie Batch that the Browns will be a trendy pick some sunday morning. Well, I look for a proud Steelers club, that is a legitimate contender to do what true contenders do and step up to the challenge. I look for the Steelers to hound rookie Brandon Weeden all afternoon long and force him into just enough mistakes to make a difference. Trust me, this won't be a game anybody but the most hard core of Steelers fans will want to view again but in the standings it just won't matter to the Steelers who will be leaving town a little bruised and battered for their efforts but with a much needed victory in the books nonetheless. Okay, you guys can clearly see where I am going here. I'm suggesting a wager on Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh Steelers to gut one out here.

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WUNDERDOG

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Pick: Tennessee -4

There is still time for Tennessee to make a playoff run, but that means they must win here in Jacksonville. So expect a top-notch effort from the Titans. The Jags have played a pair of good teams tough this season. They put a scare into Green Bay and took Houston into overtime last week before losing 43-37. Chad Henne came off the bench to have a career game. Quite often the good teams take the Jaguars too lightly and end up getting caught up in a game they never should have. The good team must then pull a win out late. But let's not mistake that with calling the Jags good. This is a really bad team. The Jags are getting out-scored by 12 points per game against .500 or worse teams this season, because these competitors come to fight for a win. Tennessee is in a do-or-die situation, and Jacksonville may have nothing left in a limited tank after last week. The Jaguars very rarely play consecutive good games, and after throwing for over 250 yards in their previous game, they are 5-13 ATS in their next one. Play on Tennessee.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 25

EZ Money Picks

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers   

The San Diego Chargers' run defense is ranked 3rd in the NFL, only allowing 87.9 rush YPG! The Ravens' run defense is uncharacteristically quite the opposite. This season, Baltimore's run defense gives up 132.2 rush YPG (ranked 27th). This is going to be the difference in the game. The team that can run AND stop the run will win. I like the Ryan Matthews against Baltimore more than I do Ray Rice against the Chargers' stout run defense. Neither QB is spectacular, and they shouldn't really affect the outcome of this game. I know the Ravens are 8-2, and this spread is small. This is a classic trap game!

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