Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, January 14,2010

Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, January 14,2010

MR EAST

NCAAB THURSDAY THRILLER

WRIGHT ST. @ WISCONSIN GREEN BAY
3 UNITS: UNDER 128

The Wright St. Raiders have played tough defensively all season. They have held 10 of their opponents to 57 points or less, and I expect this one to play in the 50s. They have also played 7 of their last 9 lined games to the under. Wisconsin Green Bay has now played under in each of their last 5 conference games, and has averaged just 57ppg in the last 4. These teams have historically played under in Green Bay, as the last 4 have all failed to reach the total. I'm going with the under in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, January 14,2010

Blade,

I think you meant Thursday the 14th... wink

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repski wrote:


Blade,

I think you meant Thursday the 14th... wink

Thanks, Coffee hadn't kicked in yet I think.  ;D

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, January 14,2010

Brandon Lang

10 DIME - THE CITADEL BULLDOGS

I remember watching this team do battle on the road at Michigan State and saying to myself what a good little squad Ed Conroy has with the Bulldogs.

His two guards Zach Urbanus and Cameron Wells gave the Spartans fits, and I was even more impressed with their ability to shoot the trey.

They come in here off a home loss to the leader of the South division of their conference Charleston 61-55 which was a game preceded by a win on the road against the leader of the North Division, Appalachian State 62-58.

Now they face Chattanooga who is red-hot, riding a 5 game winning streak, and 7 of their last 10 but let's examine this little winning streak by the Mocs.

Of their seven wins only one has come against a winning team, Eastern Kentucky at 10-6.

Their other 6 wins have come against 3-13 Greensboro, 4-13 Georgia Southern, 6-9 Long Island University-Brooklyn, 9-14 Tennessee Temple Christian, 2-14 Missouri Valley State and 6-9 Jackson State.

So as you can see, not exactly the elite of the elite, and now they step back up in class to face a very good Citadel team that has shown great ability to compete against the big boys.

Quite frankly the wrong team is favored and look for Citadel to get back on the winning track.


10 DIME - OREGON DUCKS

Love the ducks here.

They catch an Arizona State team that is playing only their 4th true road game of the entire year and considering they are 0-3 SU and ATS in the other 3, I have all the confidence in the world it will go to 0-4 tonight.

Forget their 2 neutral site games early this year losing to Duke by 11 as a 10 point pup or the 19 point win over LSU as a 4 point chalk, I want to talk about the losses to BYU, UCLA and USC.

At BYU they were catching 8 and lost by 11, at UCLA they were catching 1 1/2 and lost by 2 and at USC they were catching 2 1/2 and lost by 10. The bottom line is they have trouble executing down the stretch in close games and with this line a pick'em, Vegas is essentially telling you this is going to be a close game.

Oregon on the other hand has turned the corner.

Yes, they come off a 7 point loss at home to Oregon State as an 8 point chalk, but I want to focus on the 2 games prior to that at Washington and Washington State.

Against a 12-4 Washington State they rolled in their and beat them outright by 11 as an 11 point road underdog, and at Washington they won in OT by 2 as a 6 point dog.

I can see where they came back home in a bit of a letdown spot and Oregon State just got them at the perfect time but tonight they will come back refocused and reenergized for the big home win over a struggling road team.

Ernie Kent has his Ducks sitting near the top of the Pac-10 conference with Cal, Washington State, Stanford, Arizona State and USC, and he would like nothing better to get to 3-1 in conference play and I believe he gets it.

Great line value with the Ducks off their loss to Oregon State but as I said, huge flat spot for them off the back to back road wins against Washington and Washington State.

Grab Oregon at home.


10 DIMER ST.MARYS GAELS

Love the Gaels tonight at any number.

This is the game they have been waiting for. The game they want. The game they need.

Call it a changing of the guard in the West Coast Conference tonight, because this is the game St. Mary's has been waiting all year for.

They have won and covered every single home game this year with exception of their 4 point home loss to a damn good Vandy team out of the SEC.

In fact, they have won their other 8 home games by margins of 32, 22, 25, 41, 21, 15, 28 and 38. Nobody with exception of Vandy has been able to stay within single digits of this team at home.

Now both teams took big hits from their squads last year with both returning just 1 starter and as you can see, the Zags at 12-3 and the Gaels at 15-2 haven't missed a beat.

However, I just feel St. Mary's is the better team all around and the key was the minutes back up point guard Micky McConnell got when Patty Mills broke his wrist last year.

They have a great inside out game with McConnell and 6'11" center Omar Samhan, who is the only returning starter from last year.

Both teams are well balanced as both teams have 4 starters averaging double figures but St. Mary's almost has 5 with their 5th starter getting you 9.9 points a game.

The Gaels have been paying out like a slot machine going 12-3 ATS for the year and this is without question their biggest game of the year and the McKeon Pavillion will be rocking tonight.

Laying this small number with St. Mary's tonight as the power shifts in the West Coast Conference tonight.


FREE SELECTION - WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS

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Tom Freese

10* "NO BRAINER"

Utah is 13-6 ATS their 19 home games and they are one of the most balanced teams in the NBA with six players averaging double figures. The Cavaliers don't have balance as Lebron James and Mo Williams are taking more than half the teams shots on most nights. The underdog in this series is 5-2 ATS the last 7 meetings. This is a tough spot for the Cavs as they play their fourth straight road game. This game is in Utah where the air is rare. We will side the home lovin' Jazz. "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON UTAH


10* COLLEGE HOOPS GAME OF THE WEEK
         
Butler is 56-4 Straight up their last 60 home games including 6-0 this year. The Bulldogs return all five starters from last years team. Butler plays with revenge from a loss to Cleveland St in the Horizon league Championship last year. The Bulldogs are led by are led by Gordon Hayward and his 16.8 points a game. Hayward can play both guard and forward. Shelvin  Mack scores 15 points a game and team leader Matt Howard scores just under 11 points a game. Butler has won 20 or more games in four straight years. Cleveland St is 5-25 ATS  when they lose straight up vs. a team with revenge. The Vikings are just 7-10 straight up this year and they have 3 double digit scores. This is not the movie Hoosiers but it is Hinkle Fieldhouse. COLLEGE BASKETBALL GAME OF THE WEEK PLAY ON BUTLER -

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TIM TRUSHEL

Utah Jazz

Wisconsin GB

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Sportsbetsnow

1 Unit St. Marys -4

1 Unit Buffalo ML -135

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Marc Lawrence

College Hoops Upset Key Play

Stanford

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Teddy Covers

Jazz Over
James Madison
Detriot

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Joe Wiz Pay after you win lock

Oregon

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Red Dog Sports

4* James Madison + 9.5

3* Seton Hall-Georgetown Under 144

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Charlie

500* Bulls @ Celtics Over 194
500* Auburn +15
500* Butler -15'
30* Seton Hall +7
20* Valparaiso -5
20* Washington -8'
10* Indiana +13'
Cleveland +1 Free Play

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WAYNE ROOT

3* Indiana +13

6* S Jose St -3'

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The Booooj

15 Units Georgetown -6

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Blade wrote:


WAYNE ROOT

3* Indiana +13

6* S Jose St -3'

No Limit - Saint Mary's Gaels

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BIG AL

CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR!

St Mary's

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Dwayne Bryant

Gonzaga at Saint Mary's CA
Bet: Saint Mary's CA -4.5

The "sharps" hit this one almost right away. This line opened at Saint Mary's -3 and was hit within minutes, pushing it to -3.5. And just minutes after that it was hit again, pushing it to -4. And that line move is despite the fact that most of the bets coming in have been on Gonzaga, including money-line bets and exotics. I'm disappointed that I missed out on the -4, but I feel we still have a strong play at -4.5.

Gonzaga has only played two true road games this season, and they were beaten by Michigan State in their only big road test. St. Mary's has been extremely tough at home, and I like the fact that the Gaels are one of very few teams that can match Gonzaga's size. St. Mary's actually has the 4th-best effective height rating in thenation at +5.3, which tops the Bulldogs' #13 ranking at +3.9.

When looking at Gonzaga's road performances compared to Saint Mary's home performances, I see several huge edges for the Gaels. First, the Gaels score 87.8 ppg on 52.2% shooting at home, and they'll be going against a Gonzaga road defense allowing 76.5 ppg on 47% shooting. But Gonzaga's road offense, which averages 76 points on 41.7% shooting, would face a Gaels' home defense allowing only 64.1 ppg on just 40% shooting. Even if we look at overall numbers, Saint Mary's holds edges in rebound margin, free-throw shooting, and 3-point shooting.

Bottom line: The "sharps" definitely have their money on the Gaels. And looking at the stats from these two teams, I can see why. Gonzaga's #14 ranking is just a bull's eye for the unranked Gaels. And having the game on national TV (ESPN2) only adds to the Gaels' motivation. Lay it with Saint Mary's.

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NHL PRO PICKS

Ottawa +165
Dallas +115
Edmonton +146

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The Duke's Sports

Washington (-8') for 2 Units

A pretty good Washington team is overdue to get on track after a three game slide, and it should come here. Washington is 9-3 ATS off a SU loss and sports a 6-2 ATS mark vs the Cardinal. Washington should be able to impose tight defense at home and open up their scoring vs a Stanford team that allows a generous 85 ppg on the road.  Stanford, which is coming off two impressive wins vs rebuilding USC and UCLA, has lost six straight vs teams above .500. Washington the call.

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California Sports

5* Celtics
4* N Texas
3* Cleve St
3* Long Beach St

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