Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Red Dog Sports

5* Afternoon Soccer Total

Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Play Over 2.5

Tottenham is off a 1-0 loss but is an offensive minded team that earlier in the month beat Wigan 9-1. Manchester City can score as well. Their scores are 3-3, 2-1, 3-0, 1-1 and 2-2 in their last 5 matches. Look for a game with 4 or more goals on Wednesday afternoon!


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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Brandon Lang

10 DIME - RICHMOND SPIDERS - Great matchup for the Spiders.

When you are a disciplined team like Richmond is, and you face a team that borders on the undisciplined, ideally the game favors the disciplined.

Richmond comes off a tough 8 point loss to VCU on the road which saw them blow a 9 point halftime lead - which I know didn't set well with head coach Chris Mooney.

This is a team that won 20 games last year, returns 4 starters from that squad including his starting backcourt of Kevin Anderson and David Gonzales.

In the frontcourt they return everyone and get back from a knee injury their starting center from 2 years ago Dan Geriot, who only led them in scoring and rebounding during the '07-08 season.

They already own neutral site wins over SEC foe Mississippi State, and Big 12 Missouri, and in getting off to 7-2 start is exactly what the doctored ordered and they still have games versus Florida and Wake Forest upcoming.

To put it bluntly, anything less than an NCAA tourney bid will be a disapppointing season for this Richmond team.

Yes, their 2 losses were on the road to the aforementioned VCU and at William and Mary, but allow me to point out those are both 6-2 teams that both returned 4 starters and are having great seasons.

South Carolina comes off an 11 point loss at Clemson and what alarms me is their 97-93 win at home to Jacksonville, a team that hasn't won a game this year.

You start allowing no win teams put up 93 points on you and it tells me you are not as good as advertised.

Richmond will put the Gamecocks in a half court set, force them to execute every single possession and trust me folks, it's not the strength of South Carolina.

In a complete contrast of styles, I will side with the smarter more disciplined team that will out execute, out defend, hit their free throws and possibly get the outright win.

FREE SELECTION - EAST CAROLINA PIRATES

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Tom Freese

Grizzlies at Hawks
Pick: Hawks -9

Atlanta is 20-7-1 ATS their last 28 games as home favorites and they are 8-3 ATS off a double digit win. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40% and they are 12-4 off an ATS win. Memphis is 19-40-1 ATS their last 60 games as road underdogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 3-8 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS their last 6 meetings with Atlanta and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games in Atlanta. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON ATLANTA -

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

RATED PICKS

2* Pistons
2* Jazz

4* Miss St
2* UTEP

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

SportsBetsnow

1 Unit Jazz -8.5

1 Unit Pistons +5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

PowerPlayWins

Indiana Pacers -4
Sacramento Kings -3

CINCINNATI -1
CLEMSON -15
MISSISSIPPI -7.5
SOUTH ALABAMA -4

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Matt Fargo

9* Dark Horse Dandy

Memphis Grizzlies

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

RAS

All for 1 Unit

Ohio -1'

OR St. -2

Rice -6

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Scott Delaney

40-Dime OREGON STATE ... Gotta roll with the Beavers in this non-conference showdown. After all, when you research a game, make contact with members of the media and calls to different areas where you can reach out to people, and the consensus thought is: "We don't know when that team will win another ball game ..."

That's not a good sign, espeically when there's a hungry Oregon State team coming to town off a road loss in Nebraska, and looking to we avenge a defeat that displayed an uncharacteristic offensive side of the Beavers.

After putting up a minimum of 60 points in six straight, OSU lost to Big Red, 50-44 on Saturday. I don't think that'll happen here. Though I do believe the Flames will be stingy and pressing, I think the Beavers have the better offense to break into the 50s.

After Sunday's loss to DePaul the Flames are mired in a six-game losing streak after a season opening win over Illinois-Springfield.

Oregon State is holding opponents to 57.3 points per game, best in the Pacific-10 Conference and 15th best in the NCAA, while its field-goal percentage defense (38.2) is ranked No. 37. Look for that defense to contribute to Illinois-Chicago's ongoing woes this season and lead us to the easy win and cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Wunderdog

Montreal at New Jersey
3 Units OVER 5 -130

The Montreal Canadiens have been turning it up on the offensive end. They have now scored 20 goals in their last six games or 3.33 per contest. That is a marked improvement from their 26 goals in the previous 13 games, where they were posting just two per night. The Devils have been offensive themselves, tallying 55 in their last 17, or 3.2 per game. That is up from their 36 goals over their first 14 games by a considerable margin as well. This is a low total where we have two teams peaking in offensive efficiency right now, so I'll play this one to go OVER.


Atlanta at Florida
3 Units Florida -110

The Atlanta Thrashers have played well at home this season and they beat Florida on the road in a shootout by the score of 2-1, so I look for the Panthers to be looking to settle that score in this one. The Panthers will be looking to carry the momentum from their best game of the year when they obliterated the Islanders 7-1. While the Thrashers have done well at home, they have now dropped three of their last four on the road, and Florida is in a role that they have thrived in as they are 13-5 in their last 18 as a favorite. I like Florida who is playing better in this role and with revenge, they win this one.


Buffalo at Ottawa
3 Units Ottawa +100

The Ottawa Senators will be glad to get back home. They have not fared well on the road this season and have played seven of their last nine on the road, and it sure makes them look like they are not playing well. The difference is they have won six of their last seven on home ice. The Sabres have been a competent road team, taking the first two on their current road trip, but will have a tough task vs. an Ottawa team that loves stepping up against big-time teams as the Senators are a blistering 25-10-2 in their last 37 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of .600 or higher. It won't help the Sabres knowing that they are 7-20 in their last 27 trips to Ottawa as well as having dropped the last four here. I'll go with Ottawa.


St. Louis at Chicago
3 Units UNDER 5.5 -130

The Blackhawks have put up an impressive 13-3-1 mark at home through 17 games this season. One reason is that over their last 11 home games, they have allowed just 19 goals or 1.7 per game. That makes it very likely they will have to score four or more here to push this one over the total - something they have done just four times in their last 13 home games. Their offense has been poor recently, having scored 2 or fewer goals in seven of their last ten games. St. Louis is 20-8-4 to the UNDER in their last 32 played vs. an opponent that allowed two or fewer in their last game, while Chicago has played UNDER in 10 of their last 12 home games. These teams have also played to the UNDER in their last four meetings. I expect more of the same here and will go with the UNDER in this one.


Anaheim at Vancouver
3 Units UNDER 5.5 -120

The Ducks have done a stellar job at home, but have found it very difficult to score on the road as they have managed just 21 goals in their last 10 road games. They will not find a cure here vs. a Vancouver team that has allowed just 29 goals in their last 16 at home or 1.8 per game. The Ducks’ scoring liabilities on the road has translated to eight of their last 11 on the road going UNDER, as well as five of their last six as a dog. The Canucks are carrying the UNDER to a 5-1-1 record in their last seven as a home favorite of -151 to -200. It is likely that one team will do the scoring here, so I'll play this one UNDER.


Wright State at Mississippi State
3 Units Wright State +10.5

Wright State is definitely an under-the-radar type of team and may give Butler a run in the Horizon Conference. They lost the Horizon Finals to a big-time Butler team by just five last year, and have a lot of pieces back. They have already been tested on the road vs. a good Washington team, losing to the Huskies by just five, so they definitely can hang in this one. The Bulldogs get a lot of ink with Varnado blocking shots inside, and the fact that this is an SEC team vs. a mid-level conference team means we get a juiced line. Wright State has soared in non-conference games going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as well as 17-7 ATS as a dog, so we definitely have a live dog here, so I'll go with Wright State.


Cincinnati at U A B
3 Units U A B +2

Cincinnati has gotten a lot of mileage out of Vaughn, Yates and freshman Stephenson, but the rest of the cast has not been so good and their best player, Vaughn, is not shooting well as he gets a lot of attention. The Blazers have quietly gone 8-1, including 6-0 at home and are a force to be dealt with here. This is a deep team that likes to play pressure defense, and with a frosh, Stephenson, handling the ball with just 20 assists to 17 turnovers, it could become a chaotic spot for the Bearcats who are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Conference USA opponents. UAB is a sparkling 13-6 ATS in their last 19 as a home dog, and I like them in that role here.


Wake Forest at N C Wilmington
3 Units UNDER 150

This total is much higher than I expected and I think it is mostly predicated upon the game these teams played a year ago that saw Wake Forest win a 120-88 game. It was when NC-Wilmington started the season trying to play up-tempo, and realized the style didn't fit the team. They averaged over 100 points per game through the first three then did an about-face. They spent 17 of the last 26 in the 60s or lower. The theme hasn't changed as three games against BCS Conference teams have not reached this total. Wake Forest has now played 14 of their last 17 non-conference games on the road UNDER the total, while eight of the last 11 Seadog games at home have also gone UNDER the total. I think that the oddsmakers have a horrible read on this one, so I'll go with the UNDER here.


Clemson at Eastern Carolina
3 Units UNDER 152

The Tigers have been up over 70 points in all but one of their 10 games on the season, mostly playing at home or neutral sites. The two times they have been playing to a total of 150 or higher, they have failed to top it. These teams also matched up last year and failed to reach this number. The Pirates have also played against Wake Forest this season and failed to produce this many points, and this one looks to high to me. When you factor in the fact that Clemson, as a big favorite of 13 or more, has played six straight to the UNDER while the Pirates have played eight straight UNDER this season, it is hard to overlook, so I'll play this one UNDER.


Canisius at Duquesne
3 Units Canisius +11

The Dukes have an impressive win/loss mark, but when you look at the offense it isn't designed to get covers against big numbers. The Dukes are 7-3 straight-up, but are just a poor 1-5 ATS. The biggest reason is an offense that has produced just 53.5 points per game in the last four and that includes overtime. That certainly makes it difficult to tackle the big number posted here. The Golden Griffins are more than content to play slow as their last five have produced an average total score of 126 ppg. The Dukes’ lack of scoring has led them to a 1-7 ATS mark in their last eight at home. This one is posted too high for the type of game expected, so I'll go with Canisius here.

Santa Clara at Rice
4 Units Rice -7

Santa Clara certainly has a misleading record at this point as they enter here at 6-4, but have two wins over teams below Div-1. They beat Houston Baptist and escaped by three against Cal Bakersfield - hardly notable opponents. Rice is the deeper team here with nine players getting meaningful minutes and contributing. With Ben Dowdell out, that puts Santa Clara down to six contributing players, and will be the reason for their fade late in this one against a deep and equally talented Rice team. I'll back the Owl's here.


Mississippi vs. U T E P
3 Units UNDER 152

The Miners suffered their first loss of the season at home to the hands of New Mexico St. The offense has come pretty freely for this team in the early going, but they have not seen a team the caliber of the Rebels. The Rebels are holding teams to 41.1% for the season and just 32% from deep. Mississippi is off to an 8-1 start, but the quality has been lacking, and when they have played premier teams the scoring has come down, as I expect it will here also for both teams. Mississippi has played 10 of their last 13 vs. Conference USA opponents to the UNDER. The UNDER has also gone 5-1 in UTEP games after a straight-up loss. I like the UNDER in this one.


Oregon State at Illinois Chicago
3 Units Oregon State -4

Oregon State is heading in the right direction. Two years ago this program was depleted and won just five games. Last year they made it to the CBI Tournament and won the Championship. They already own wins over Colorado and George Washington this year, and played Texas Tech to a four-point game on the road. Illinois Chicago has had their moments, but this year won't be one of them. They have yet to beat a Div-1 team this season. They have committed 104 turnovers to just 63 assists and don't have anyone shooting over 30% from deep, and the top four scorers are under 40% from the field. This is an Oregon State team that is better than what we have seen and should have no problem winning on the road here. I'll go with Oregon State.


Arkansas Little Rock at South Alabama
3 Units South Alabama -4.5

The Jaguars are off to an impressive 7-3 start and have yet to lose at home, while Arkansas Little Rock has yet to find the win column on the road this season. The Jags have an impressive 13-point win at Arkansas - never an easy task. They are a very balanced team and are getting good shooting through seven deep and impressively, they have six players with double-digit assists, so good cohesion on the offensive end. Solomon Bozeman has done everything for the Trojans, which is part of the problem. The lack of talent has caused him to have the ball too much, and he is the lowest-percentage shooter of the top five, but the leading scorer and has already committed 29 turnovers. It is hard to win with one player, and the Jags’ balance and home court prove decisive here. I’m South Alabama in this one.


Charlotte at Indiana
2 Units OVER 192

The Charlotte Bobcats scored 59 points in their opener, and I think that performance still lingers in the oddsmakers’ eyes especially since they opened the season averaging just 81.9 points per game without overtime. They have really changed from that team that was deficient offensively, to one that has averaged 98 ppg in their last 11 since. That bodes well for the OVER here against an Indiana team that likes to get up-and-down the floor. The Pacers don't see too many totals posted under 200, but when they do they usually topple them. They are 3-1 already this year and 3-1 in the last four a year ago. The Bobcats have played OVER in their last four as a dog, and I like this one to go OVER the total.


Dallas at Oklahoma City
4 Units Oklahoma City +2

The Oklahoma City Thunder is still under the radar despite the fact they are 12-11 on the season. It's hard to escape the team that went 2-25 to open the season a year ago, but have improved dramatically. This is a team that took the Lakers to overtime at home, and thrashed Orlando here by 26 points, so they are definitely capable of the win here. Oklahoma City played Dallas tough in all three games last year as they lost by just four in Dallas, won by nine at home, and lost a game in OT here. The Mavs have not been excellent in this spot as a small favorite of up to 4.5, they are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28, and the Thunder have been roaring back after a loss to go 38-16 ATS. I like Oklahoma City in this one.


Houston at Denver
4 Units Houston +8.5

The Denver Nuggets started a roll last year at home and kept right on going into this season, where they are off to an 11-1 start. The problem this creates is the that oddsmakers are aware and begin to shade the line, realizing everyone is going to be looking to play on them. As a result, the value begins to go the other way. The other problem is that Houston is very tough on the road vs. superior teams. They beat the Lakers by 10, and went to another pretty tough place to play - Utah, and beat the Jazz by 17 points. They won at Oklahoma City, played Portland to within one, and Atlanta to within two. So as good as Denver has been at home, Houston has been more than up to the task on the road, and getting a bundle here is value on the visitor. I'll go with Houston here.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

UAB +2

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the home side:

Cincinnati (6-2) broke into the Top 25 last month for the first time since 2006 and remained in the latest poll at No. 25 despite losing 83-79 in double overtime to Xavier on Sunday.

It was the first true road game for Cincinnati, which now travels to Birmingham, where it’s lost its last two and the Blazers are 5-0 and I believe this team will suffer a "letdown" in this spot.

The Bearcats shot 37.6 % and were outscored 28-10 at the free-throw line Sunday. They missed 12 free throws and got rattled early in the first half when forward Rashad Bishop and Xavier’s Jordan Crawford each drew technical fouls. The Musketeers went on a 12-2 run after that altercation.

Keep in mind the Bearcats are a horrible 1-5 ATS their last six on the road and 1-4 ATS its last five vs. UAB.

On the other side of the court: The talented Blazers are led by Elijah Millsap’s 15.8 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Three other players are averaging at least 9.4 points; the Blazers are coming off a 74-52 win over East Tennessee State on Dec. 4.

Jamarr Sanders scored 17 while Millsap had 11 points and 15 rebounds as the Blazers held an opponent under 60 points for the sixth time.

UAB is 8-1 SU to start the year, and 5-0 SU its last five in front of the hometown crowd.

Bottom line: Cincinnati beat UAB 87-80 last December; so look for the Blazers to also be playing with "revenge" on their minds; look for UAB to improve to 3-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and for Cincinnati to fall to 2-3 ATS under the same ATS circumstances.

7* UAB

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Tony George

Minnesota -1.5

Like the Wolves at home, playing great ball. They are playing with double revenge in this one and in both those road losses to the Clips this year, they covered. I like them at home tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the T Wolves

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Rocketman

Samford +14.5

Samford is allowing only 60 points per game in all games this year. Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Bulldogs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Bulldogs are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Crimson Tide are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Crimson Tide are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. We'll play Samford for 3 units tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Marc Lawrence

Utah -9

The Jazz take on the Nets in New Jersey Wednesday night knowing Utah is 8-1 ATS as a favorite on this floor, including 5-0 ATS when the Nets are off back-to-back losses. With New Jersey 1-7 ATS against Western Conference competition this season, look for Utah to get back on the win track here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Utah.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Opposite Action Plays

Sac Kings -3

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Evan Altemus

Oklahoma City +2

Oklahoma City is much better than oddsmakers are giving them credit for this season. The Thunder also will be featured in another nationally televised game on ESPN tonight. They dominated Milwaukee in their last national TV game, as the young team came out very motivated with something to prove. Dallas has been a good road team this season, but they haven’t played particularly well lately. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games with very close wins against Charlotte, Phoenix, and New Orleans. They also have a home game against Houston looming 2 days from now. I don’t expect them to take this game as seriously as Oklahoma City will. The Thunder are coming off two straight losses to Cleveland and Denver, so they will be eager to turn things around in this game. Look for Oklahoma City to get the home win.

3 UNIT SELECTION THUNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Bob Balfe

LA Lakers -5.5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Lenny Del Genio

Denver -7.5

If 'disgraced' former referee Tim Donaghy's allegations are true than the Houston Rockets could be in some trouble tonight. HC Rick Adelman spent his Monday by criticizing the league for setting his team up with 'so many' back to back situations over the next two weeks (team will play four). "Every team should have a chance where they're home a little bit," he said. "We have no chance. This is the most ridiculous schedule I've ever seen." Welcome to the NBA, Rick, and thanks for the heads up. If Adelman was so worried about this, then why did he play three of his players (Brooks, Budinger and Scola) 40+ minutes in last night's home win over Detroit? We're not worried in the least about the return of Tracy McGrady, who just desperately wants to accept an unwarranted All-Star starting selection. Meanwhile, its back to the old rested Nuggets playing at home vs. an unrested visitor angle for us. Denver is 34-15 ATS coming off a home win and 37-17 ATS if they were a home favorite last game. Nuggets have just barely missed out on covering last two games. They get it done tonight. Take Denver.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

CHARLIE

500* Miss St -11
500* Clemson -14
500* San Antonio @ Golden St Over 214
30* Atlanta -9
20* Charlotte +4
20* Cincinnati -1'
10* Illinois St +2
OK City +2 Free Play

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Kiki Sports

2* NBA GOM - Atlanta

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