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Breeders Cup Turf News and Notes

Breeders Cup Turf News and Notes

Breeders Cup Turf News and Notes
By Anthony Stabile

The Turf: 1 ½ miles (T); $3 million; 3up; Saturday, 6:00 p.m. on ESPN

The History

It owns the distinction of being the only event that had a dead heat for win when High Chapparal, who was winning his second Turf in a row, dead-heated with Johar in 2003. Foreigners have won over half of the 23 runnings but Manila and Theatrical did the US proud back in the mid 1980’s.

The Best
Though beaten by a three-year-old filly in the G1 Arc de Triomphe in early October, Soldier of Fortune comes over from Europe for O’Brien and Coolmore and will likely go off the favorite. He’s three for seven at the distance and won the G1 Coronation Cup earlier this year in England.

2006 Turf winner Red Rocks, who was also third in this event last season, came from well off to pace to defeat the great Curlin in the G1 Man O’ War at Belmont in his last start back in mid-July when adding blinkers. He’s won both his starts over firm ground.

Grand Couturier won the G1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga for the second consecutive year two starts back after overcoming a Titanic-like trip before overcoming a bit less adversity to win the G1 Turf Classic in a common gallop by ten lengths in his last start.

The Rest
2004 Turf winner Better Talk Now is winless in six starts this season and has won just twice in the past 2 ½ years. Conduit won the G1 St Leger in England last out and is trying older foes for the first time. Dancing Forever was awful in his last two over less than firm surfaces after winning the G1 Manhattan on Belmont Stakes day. Eagle Mountain is winless in three starts at this distance and is seeking his first G1 score. Out of Control was a gutsy second in the G1 Clement Hirsch last out and is making his first start going the distance. Red Giant won the Hirsch along with the G2 Fourstardave at the Spa in his only two starts since last October. Red Rock Canyon is a maiden and serves as the rabbit for Soldier of Fortune. Spring House is two for two at the distance over this course. Winchester blew away eight rivals in the G1 Secretariat in his U.S debut when adding Lasix and blinkers.

The Scenario
Red Rock Canyon will be winging it on the front end. Eagle Mountain and Out of Control figure to have the first crack at him. Conduit, Red Giant, Soldier of Fortune and Winchester will follow that group. Better Talk Now, Dancing Forever, Grand Couturier, Red Rocks, and Spring House will be coming late.

The Strategy
I don’t like to tip my hand too much with a week still to go before the race but I’m against Soldier of Fortune in here. This is the race where you can get tons of value.

The Bomb
I’m going to cheat and give out two. Dancing Forever should love the return to what should be firm ground while Spring House is in arguably the best form of his career. Both should be aided by the rabbit as well.

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