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Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
5* Chargers at Dolphins: I'm not sold that the Dolphins have turned things around after one stunning blowout win at New England. This is still a young, rebuilding team with a lot of holes and inexperience. The Chargers were not impressed with the way they beat New England, with trick plays and overshifts on the offensive line. "Gimmicky," cornerback Quentin Jammer said. The Chargers have spent time each day this week preparing to face the Miami Dolphins and their highly successful version of the single-wing offense. The Dolphins call it the "Wildcat" offense, and they scored four touchdowns in six snaps against the Patriots. The key in this game is the Chargers versatile, wide open offense against a weak Miami 'D'. This offense is No. 8 in the NFL and scoring a ton of points through the air and the ground. The Chargers are 13-4 SU/ATS as a favorite under Norv Turner. Miami doesn't have strong wideouts and and QB Chad Pennington has just 2 TDs, one pick in 3 games. They won at New England with the ground game, but the Chargers have a speedy secondary and can focus all their defensive effort in stopping the run and blitzing, something they did a lot of in the second half last week at Oakland. The Dolphins are 1-7 SU/ATS their last 8 in Miami. Play the Chargers.
3* Chargers/Dolphins over: Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, with the Chargers at 28th. The defense gave up 26 points to Carolina and 39 at Denver. At least the offense is loaded, ranked 8th in the NFL, with a great offensive line, plus QB Philip Rivers has 10 TDs and 4 picks, alongside RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They toasted the Jets in a 48-29 rout. Miami has defensive deficiencies that can be exploited by an good offensive mind like Norv Turner. Miami's offense is much better this season, with a stronger offensive line, a capable, veteran QB in Chad Pennington, plus RB Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense with a very young unit. Look for a lot of scoring, play the Chargers/Dolphins over the total
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****STRONG OPINION****San Diego Chargers (-6.5) VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Chargers are a team that no one can quite figure out as they seem to struggle to play complete games. They were awful in the first half against a bad Raiders team last week before rallying in the second half for the win. Now they cross the continent to take on a Dolphins team coming off a bye and who are feeling good after upsetting the Patriots the week before. They should play well again here at home as QB Chad Pennington will be able to throw against the awful Charger secondary that gives up the most passing yards in the league. That will enable Pennington to set up his play action passing which is his strength and also allow star RB Ronnie Brown to pick up nice yardage. The Dolphins are also in agood betting situation as they qualify for a 22-3 ATS angle that play on a home underdog after a bye. THE PICK: Miami Dolphins (+6.5)
****BEST BET***PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6) VS. Washington Redskins: This is a classic letdown/bouonce back game for these teams as the Eagles come off a tough loss on the road to the Bears while the Redskins are on a three-game winning streak and due for a stumble. The Birds have owned this series over the years, especially at home and they should be up to the task again this week. The ferocious Eagle pass rush will make things difficult for Redskins QB Jason Campbell and give little running room to RB Clinton Portis. Washington also is in a terrible spot due to an incredible 1-17 ATS angle that plays against teams that won as a huge underdog the previous week. To top it off, they also qualify in a 22-56-2 ATS road letdown angle. This one is clear as day. THE PICK: Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
*****BEST BET*****New England Patriots (3.5) VS.20SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The Patriots are just not a very good football team right now and that was before the Dolphins smashed them in the mouth two weeks ago. New England is seriously doubting themselves after that game and the bye week won’t fix the fact that the offense is a joke without Tom Brady at QB. The 49ers on the other hands have played better than expected as JT O’Sullivan continues to do a nice job complementing the great running of Frank Gore. The spread on this game reflects the respect the oddsmakers have for New England but realistically the Niners should be favored by a field goal here. I will gladly take the 3.5 points based on that mistake by them and also by the fact they the Patriots are 7-10 ATS under Belichick following a loss which included 0-3 ATS after the bye. Look for the upset here. THE PICK: San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)
****STRONG OPINION****DALLAS COWBOYS (-17) VS. Cinc innati Bengals: The Cowboys will absolutely roll here after their shocking loss to the Redskins last week. They will show no mercy against a Bengals team who will once again be without QB Carson Palmer. Without Palmer the offense is awful and don’t count on Ryan Fitzpatrick being able to generate much in the passing game. Tony Romo and company will have a field day against the pathetic Bengals defense. This one should be over by the half at the latest. This pick applies only if Fitzpatrick plays. THE PICK: Dallas Cowboys (-17 if Palmer is out, otherwise its OFF)
****BEST BET****ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1) VS. Buffalo Bills: The Bills are the surprise team of the league as they come into this one at 4-0 with some impressive wins on their resume. This is a bad spot for them however as they must cross the country and take on a Cardinals team that has proven to be a very tough team to deal with at home. The Cards are ticked off after losing two straight and the defense should have an easier time with the less-expl osive Buffalo attack. Arizona is in a great spot as they apply to a 31-6 ATS bounce back angle. THE PICK: Arizona Cardinals (-1)
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New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: 5* New England Patriots -3
The New England Patriots make the long trip west to face the hometown San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are coming into this contest off of a SU loss although the Patriots had a bye week last week and time to think about their embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins.
The Patriots have played well of late when coming off their bye week posting a record of 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS since 2003. We also note that the Patriots under Head Coach Bill Belichick are 13-4 ATS their last 17 coming off a SU loss of 10 or more points in their last game.
The 49ers are a much improved team this season but as we all witnessed last week they are far from being an elite team. They were beaten soundly and failed to cover the number against a beat-up and injury riddled Saints squad last week.
San Francisco lacks any real threats on the outside and relies solely on the running of Frank Gore. San Francisco QB JT O’Sullivan has been sacked 19 times already this season and that will not get any better against this veteran Patriots defense. With two weeks to prepare you know Belichick has prepared his defensive unit with a solid game plan to force O’Sullivan into mistakes and/or sacks.
Word out of the Patriots camp is they have gone back to the basics and have worked extremely hard since that humiliating loss to the Dolphins to ensure they do not get embarrassed like that again. Patriot Coaches have tailored the offensive playbook more to QB Cassel’s liking and Brady has been working with the youngster to help with his preparation for this week’s game.
For the most part this is the same Patriots team with the glaring exception of Tom Brady. With the extra time to prepare it should help in that department especially for Cassel. We know the 49ers defense is suspect as they gave up 30 points to Seattle and 31 points to New Orleans and both teams were limited on offense due to a number of players being out with injuries.
On the technical front we see that Coach Belichick is 22-9 ATS in his career on the highway when coming off a SU loss including a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS his last 9. He is also a perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by 7 or less in that situation. Belichick’s teams have faced NFC West opponents thirteen times in this situation and yes he is a perfect 13-0 ATS in that role. One more tech set tells us that San Fran when coming in off a non-division contest installed as an underdog and now facing an AFC opponent are only 1-10 ATS in that role.
The Patriots are 13-1 ATS on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game are fewer than 30. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS on the road when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The League is 46-17-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.
The 49ers are 1-10 ATS after playing on the road as a dog. The 49ers are 1-12 ATS the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 0-8 ATS as a dog after playing on the road as a dog. The League is 1-17 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500. The League is 1-13-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500 after a straight up loss.
Our Situational Report tells us to Play Against teams with a Rush Rating For advantage >2, a below average Passing Game and an above average Rushing Attack, 22-3 ATS since 1994.
We have two NFL Power Systems that are active for today’s game. The first one tells us to Play On NFL road teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a road loss, 27-7 ATS since 2003. The second system says to Play On NFL road teams off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9, 25-6 ATS last ten years.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* New England Patriots -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos
Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
The Denver Broncos will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon at Mile High. Denver returns home off an embarrassing loss last week to the winless Kansas City Chiefs while the Bucs defeated Green Bay in Tampa. Both teams share a 3-1 record on the young season.
Denver has been great offensively this season; Jay Cutler has really come into his own as an NFL Quarterback. They are averaging better than 6.5 yards per play on offense this season. Their problem is their defense allows about the same yards per play and has been unable to keep the opposing teams out of the end zone.
Tampa Bay’s defense will be the strongest the Broncos have faced to this point in the season. The Buc’s “D” has some playmakers on that side of the ball and should be able to slow the Denver offense enough to give their offense a chance.
The Buc’s offensive unit with RB’s Earnest Graham who has rushed for 334 yards this season with an average of 5.9 yards per carry and Warrick Dunn who has 197 yards rushing on 4.7 yards per carry should have a big day against the Denver defense.
Last week the Buc’s rushed for 178 yards on 4.3 yards per carry. The Denver defense allowed KC to rush for 213 yards on 6.5 yards per carry. This is not a good match up for the Broncos to try and get last weeks loss off their minds. They will be facing the better defensive unit and a team that can rush the football.
Our Situational Report shows the Broncos in a negative situation that tells us to Play Against teams with a SU Win% that is >than last season’s SU Win% and a Pass Offense Rating Advantage >1 with a gross PYF>44 and rushing yards against-for were >75 in their last game. This situations record is 34-3 ATS since 1994 and a perfect 2-0 ATS this year.
The Buccaneers are 10-1-1 ATS versus any team with the same record after playing at home. The League is 23-5-2 ATS within 3 of pick when on a 3 game SU and ATS winning streak. The League is 41-17-2 ATS on the road versus any team with the same record after a straight up win. The League is 7-0 ATS within 3 of pick the week after a win when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they were behind by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.
The Broncos are 8-24 ATS as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Broncos are 4-17-3 ATS as a favorite versus any team with the same record. The Broncos are 2-12-3 ATS as a favorite versus any team with the same record. after a straight up loss. The League is 0-10-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home versus any team with the same record after a straight up loss on the road.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that tells us to Play Against NFL teams with a defense that is allowing 24 or more points per game, after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored, 99-56 ATS the last ten years.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: 4* Baltimore Ravens +3
The Baltimore Ravens will play host to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon at M & T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The Ravens are coming in off an overtime loss on Monday night in Pittsburgh and the Titans are coming in off their first 4-0 start in franchise history including when they were in Houston.
These two teams have arguably the best defenses in the league right now. Over their first three games the Ravens have only allowed 3.5 yards per play. Teams have found it rough going when they attempt to run the football as the Ravens only allow a little over 3 yards per carry.
Baltimore’s pass defense has suffered from the injury bug with CB Samari Rolle and Safety Dawan Landry both having injuries. They gave up over 6 yards per pass play to the Steelers on Monday night after only allowing an average of less than 3 yards per pass play in their first two games.
Ravens QB Joe Flacco, the first-round pick of the 2008 draft for Baltimore, started his career with consecutive wins prior to last Monday’s 23-20 overtime loss to Pittsburgh. First year Coach John Harbaugh will continue to work the offense the same, run the ball, throw safe short passes to Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason, who are very good at finding holes in zone defenses.
The experience factor will change in due time, but Baltimore, like Tennessee, has its offense centered on a bulldozing running attack. Willis McGahee (questionable), LeRon McClain and Ray Rice form an intimidating backfield trio that punishes defenses from any point on the field.
It’s still all about the defense and the Ravens defenders are vultures when at home with a 7-0 ATS record after allowing 225 or less total yards a game over their last three.
The Titans will once again have veteran QB Kerry Collins under center for Sunday’s game. Vince Young returned to practice this week but he will serve only as a back-up to the back-up. His mental status is still unknown and Coach Fisher said he is sticking with Collins as long as they continue to win. That may end in Baltimore on Sunday.
As evenly matched as the Ravens and Titans are in rushing the ball and defense this game will likely come down to mistakes and special teams. Baltimore has an edge on special teams and playing at home we believe the Ravens will make fewer mistakes and come away with the upset victory.
Our Situational Report shows the Ravens to be in a positive situation in today’s contest. It states to Play On teams with a Rushing Play% For more than their opponents RP% and a Total <35 and a Fumble Differential >0.5 for the season. This situations record is 71-15 ATS since 1994 and a perfect 1-0 ATS this season.
The Titans are 2-9 ATS within 3 of pick versus a non-divisional opponent. The Titans are 4-14 ATS when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30. The Titans are 1-6 ATS on the road after playing as a favorite. The League is 8-23-1 ATS as a road favorite when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 at home as a favorite. The League is 2-10-3 ATS as a road favorite the week after at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average.
The Ravens are 12-2-2 ATS at home after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Ravens are 8-0 ATS within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays as a dog. The Ravens are 12-3 ATS when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The League is 14-3 ATS after a loss on the road as a dog against a divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half.
Technical, Fundamental and Situational support gives of this home underdog winner for Sunday afternoon. Back the host here in a mild upset and the Ravens stop the Titans undefeated streak.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Baltimore Ravens +3
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Prediction: 4* Indianapolis / Houston Over 47
The Houston Texans play host to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon in Houston. Sunday will mark the first game of the season at Reliant Stadium for the Texans, who were forced to play their first three contests on the road due to the effects of Hurricane Ike. They finished that stretch with a 30-27 overtime loss last Sunday at Jacksonville.A shaky start through the first few weeks of the season has the Indianapolis Colts in an unfamiliar territory with a 1-2 record. Slow starts are uncommon for Indianapolis which has opened each of the last three seasons 7-0 or better.Although they bounced back from a season-opening home loss to Chicago with an 18-15 road victory atMinnesota in Week 2, the Colts couldn't keep their momentum going as they fell 23-21 at home to division foe Jacksonville on Sept. 21.After allowing the third-fewest total yards last season, the Colts have surrendered the eighth-most (1,021) through three games, including 403 in their most recent loss. They have particularly struggled to stop the run, yielding an average of 199.3 yards after giving up 236 versus Jacksonville.Houston's Matt Schaub rebounded from a three-interception game in a loss at Tennessee the previous week with a strong performance against the Jaguars. He was 29-for-40 for 307 yards and a career high-tying three touchdowns as the Texans racked up a season-best 386 yards.
Schaub was 27 of 33 for 236 yards and a TD in a 30-24 home loss to the Colts on Sept. 23, 2007 in his only appearance against the division rivals.Houston’s offense finally played up to their potential last week, averaging 6.3 yards per play against the Jags, and that unit should perform well against a Colts’ defense that has had a tendency to struggle without Bob Sanders in the lineup (out with ankle injury possible 4-6 weeks).
The Colts gave up 403 yards at 5.8 yards per play to the Jaguars in their first game without Sanders and we believe the Texans will be able to move the ball consistently against this Colts defense.
With Peyton Manning missing all of the pre-season he hasn’t looked like Peyton in the first 3 games of the season averaging just 6.0 yards per pass play. The bye week should help Manning get on track and they are still one of the league’s best passing teams and should right the ship here on Sunday.
Prior to last year's 29-7 win at Jacksonville, Indianapolis had gone OVER in eight straight post-bye week games. The Colts are scoring 33.7 PPG on their own in that span.
Data base research has uncovered several strong technical situations that help solidify our position on the “Over” in this contest. NFL Teams as a road favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent are 15-4-1 Over. NFL Teams as a favorite when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date are 18-4 Over. NFL Teams are 26-8 Over when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. NFL Teams are 49-17-2 Over when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.
NFL Teams are 14-4-1 Over as a dog the week after on the road in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 75-44-4 Over after playing as a dog. NFL Teams are 21-6-2 Over at home the week after on the road as a dog in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 12-1-1 Over as a home dog the week after on the road in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 26-7 Over within 3 of pick after playing as a dog. NFL Teams are 13-5 Over as a home dog when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date.
The Colts are 21-6-2 Over on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Colts are 13-3-1 Over on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Colts are 6-0 Over as a road favorite when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date.
The Texans are 10-0 Over when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Texans are 10-1 Over the week after a loss in which they committed no turnovers. The Texans are 7-0 Over at home versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Texans are 12-2 Over at home after playing on the road. The Texans are 10-0 Over versus a divisional opponent. The Texans are 5-0 Over as a home dog after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average.
Both teams need a win here and we expect this game to be an old-fashioned shoot-out in the Wild West. With strong fundamental, situational and technical support we will make this our 4* NFL Total Game of the Week Selection for Week Five of the NFL Season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Indianapolis / Houston OVER 47
San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Prediction: 3* San Diego / Miami OVER 44.5
The Miami Dolphins host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday afternoon in south Florida. The Dolphins enter this contest off their bye week and a huge upset win on the road against the New England Patriots 38 to 13 the week prior to that bye.
Miami is a much improved team and they have a better than average rushing attack which averages almost 4.5 yards per play. Dolphins QB Chad Pennington was 17 of 20 for 226 yards against the Patriots.
The Dolphins defense looked outstanding against the Patriots but against Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals back in Week Two they torched them for 7.8 yards per play. We believe we will get the in-between version of the Dolphins “D” on Sunday as they face a solid Chargers offensive unit.
The Chargers are explosive on offense and average almost 6.5 yards per play this season. Chargers QB Phillip Rivers has averaged over 8 yards per pass play on the year and has really stepped up his performance while RB Tomlinson has been bothered by an injury to his right toe. It appears Tomlinson is getting back to his old self coming off a solid performance last week versus the Raiders where he had 106 yards rushing and two touchdowns, including a 41-yard scamper, in San Diego's 28-18 win over Oakland on Sunday.
San Diego’s defense has been average at best they are allowing 5.5 yards per play to teams that normally average just over five yards per play. The loss of their defensive leader in Shawne Merriman has definitely had an impact on their performance.
Both teams should be able to move the football and in turn score, we expect this game to go over the posted total. Some may see where this series has gone “Under” the last six meetings well these teams though haven't met since Dec. 11, 2005, when the Dolphins won 23-21 at San Diego so we don’t put a lot of stock in that particular trend.
Our data base research has uncovered strong technical situations that are current and score much higher on the Z-factor for angles and trends. NFL Teams are 16-4-1 Over on the road the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 41-15-1 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. NFL Teams are 30-9-1 Over when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks.
NFL Teams are 34-15-2 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 33-17-2 Over at home when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date.
The Chargers are 10-2 Over as a favorite after playing on the road as a favorite. The Chargers are 14-3-1 Over on the road. The Chargers are 6-0 Over as a road favorite the week after an away game.
The Dolphins are 10-1 Over when facing a team that has forced an average of fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Dolphins are 6-1 Over last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
Strong fundamental, situational and technical support leads to an “Over” in today’s match up.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* San Diego / Miami OVER 44.5
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SUNDAY, OCTOBER 05, 2008
971 PHILLY-110 SB
975 RAYS+130 SB
977 ANGELS+160 SB
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO
NFL - WEEK 5
405 COLTS-3 SB+
410 DOLPHINS+6.5 SB
415 BEARS-3 SB+
422 BRONCOS-3 -120 SB
423 PATS-3 SB
427 BENGALS+17 SB+
UNDER 45 SB
430 JAGS-4.5 SB
OVER 36 SB+
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Sunday, Oct 5
Phillies -110 (5 units)
White Sox -135 (5 units)
Under 8 1/2 Tampa-CWS (5 units)
Angels +165 (5 units)
Titans -2 1/2 (5 units)
Chiefs +9 1/2 (5 units)
Giants -7 (5 units)
Over 43 1/2 Seattle-Giants (5 units)
Patriots -3 (5 units)
Over 44 Bengals-Cowboys (5 units)
Steelers +3 1/2 (5 units)
Saints -3 (5 units)