Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

SCOTT DELANEY

Lay the chalk with the Diamondbacks against the Padres, and list both Danny Haren and Jake Peavy in the NL West clash.

The boxscore says these two pushed 13 runs across home plate last night. The fact is the Snakes held a 7-3 lead late in the game and their bullpen gave way to a ninth inning, Padres rally. Don't count on the fireworks show to carry over, as a pair of quality hurlers who can go the distance will toe the slab, and we're going to bank on Haren to earn the victory.

Arizona's slim win over San Diego resulted in the Diamondbacks taking a one-game lead over the Dodgers, who surprisingly lost their series-opener to Colorado yesterday.

The Diamondbacks will get it done on the strength of Haren's arm once again, as he's 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA in three starts against the Padres in 2008. He's pitched exactly seven innings each time, so the durability to preserve the pen will be key for us tonight. And I'd much rather trust Haren's 2.96 ERA at Chase Field, than Peavy's 4.14 road number, in this one.Lay the chalk with Arizona.

1 DIME DIAMONDBACKS

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

MATT RIVERS

For Wednesday I'll back the Royals in Cleveland

Gil Meche may not be a top tiered hurler but the righty is very underrated and very very good. Meche did not have a great start to the season but recently he has turned things around and is light years better than young Zack Jackson.

Jackson had fairly miserable recent Minor League numbers and despite being alright in his big league debut last week at home against the Orioles I am all about the visitors from Kansas City today as this starting pitching advantage is well weighted for us.

Playing the Royals on the road and not getting anything back from the Indians can never be construed as the greatest value ever but the Tribe are still a team with Grady Sizemore and very little as Martinez and Hafner are still out and the Royals are a team that truly is probably the more talented of the two. Then you have the clear cut pitching edge with meche over Jackson and probably the better bullpen with Soria in the end vs. a bullpen by committee in Cleveland and I will take my chances with Gordon, Brown, DeJesus, Teahen and the Royals.

If this game was at Ewing Kauffman and KC was laying -150 or -160 I could not back them as that is just too much to lay with a mediocre at the very best team. But I do not think the homefield advantage is that big of a deal in baseball and therefore I will take Meche and company.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

John Ryan

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Pirates

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pittsburgh Pirates – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 27-14 making 32.3 units since 2002. Play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -200 or higher and is starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. Cardinals off an improbable and embarrassing loss last night and that negative momentum will carry over to this game as well. The Pirates bullpen will again be a dominant factor in winning this game. They have posted a 1.69 ERA allowing ZERO homeruns in the last 7 games. Cardinals are fighting for a wild card spot, but are just 4 games over 500 playing at home this season. Pirates starter Jason Davis has been very impressive and has posted a 1.38 ERA in his only two starts of the season. With two starts under his belt, Davis has solidified himself in the rotation, at least for the time being. After allowing two first-inning runs on Friday, Davis settled down and kept the Mets scoreless through the final six frames of his seven-inning start. Davis has now allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings as a starter. The righty doesn't have overpowering stuff, but it continues to be effective because he is consistently throwing down in the strike zone. Davis has never faced the Cardinals, which gives him an added advantage. Pirates are also in a strong role noting they are 12-7 (+10.3 Units) against the money line versus a NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better this season. Take the Pirates

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Tony Stoffo

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians    
Play: Cleveland Indians   

The Indians a strong play for tonight as they qualify in 4 of my top rated system plays which include: * Reverse Money Move * Reverse Public Play * Double Streak System Play * Underdog system play Rarely do we have a team fit all of these system in the same night. Plus add in the fact of how poorly the Royals are playing at the present time having lost 10 of their last 12 games and you can see how the Indians are my highly recommended play for this evening.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Stephen Nover

Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have a shot at accomplishing something no pro sports team ever has done - go from worst record the year before to best record.

Right now the Rays are tied with the Chicago Cubs for the top record in the major leagues. The Rays haven't missed a beat despite injuries to Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria and closer Troy Percival.

Tampa is 22-9 in its last 31 games. The Rays have won 81 percent of their games at Tropicana Field this season. They have showed character all season pulling out 35 come-from-behind victories.

So when the price is low like it is for this game and the Rays have a starting pitching edge, I'm going to hop on their bandwagon.

Rays starter Matt Garza has been very tough at home with a 6-2 mark and 2.47 ERA. He's off a brilliant performance on Friday when he threw a complete game two-hit shutout against the Rangers in Texas, one of the toughest pitching parks in baseball.

The Angels are going with Jered Weaver, who has a 7.31 ERA during his last three starts. Weaver has a 4.89 road ERA. The Angels are 1-4 in Weaver's past five away starts.

The Angels probably were playing above their heads on the road earlier this season. They've dropped five of their last six games. Tampa Bay has been the one team to give Los Angeles trouble. The Rays have won six of eight meetings versus the Angels this season, including all five at Tropicana Field.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Rocketman Sports

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Kansas City Royals   

Cleveland is 13-27 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Cleveland is 5-13 when playing on Wednesday this year. Cleveland bullpen has a 5.27 ERA overall this season. Meche has a 3.54 ERA on the road this year and 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA his last 3 starts. Royals are 11-1 in Meches last 12 starts. Indians are 1-11 in their last 12 Wednesday games. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Charlies Sports

Rockies / Dodgers Under 7½ (500*)
Mets -135 (30*)
San Francisco -115 (20*)
Kansas City -100 (20*)
Texas -120 (10*)
Baltimore +110 (10*) free play

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Bryan Leonard

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Under

A pair of lefties take to the hill tonight in Toronto and neither team has fared well this season against southpaws. The Yankees average just 3.81 rpg away vs lefties while the Blue Jays average the same 3.81 rpg home vs southpaws.

Neither team is hitting all that well right now except for one breakout game by each squad. The Yankees have been held to three runs or less in six of their last eight games. Toronto hasn't been much better scoring just four runs or less in four of their last five outings.

Toronto's David Purcey has pitched well since claiming a spot in the rotation with three of four starts being quality ones. The Yanks counter with veteran Andy Pettitte who is off back to back three earned runs in seven inning performances.

This year seven of the nine meetings between these two have resulted in seven total runs scored or less. With this total in the 9 1/2 range we have plenty of cushion for a low scoring affair.

PLAY UNDER

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Under

Not surprisingly, since dealing away Xavier Nady and Jason Bay prior to the trading deadline, the Pirates offense has sputtered. Pittsburgh has been an Under machine in recent weeks, 12-2 to the Under in their last 14 games, with the offense held to two runs or less eight different times during that span. There’s absolutely no reason to think that the Pirates bats are going to come alive tonight against Todd Wellemeyer, who’s allowed a grand total of eight runs in his last five starts. When Wellemeyer last faced Pittsburgh here at Busch Stadium, he held them to two hits in seven innings of one run baseball. We can expect a similar performance tonight.

But the Cardinals aren’t exactly tearing the cover off the baseball with their bats either, shut down by Ian Snell yesterday; their second straight home game in which they scored exactly one run. In fact, for the season, the St Louis offense has scored a full run per game less at home than on the road. Don’t expect Tony LaRussa’s offense to get untracked here. Pirates starter Jason Davis hadn’t started a game since 2005 with the Indians prior to his last two trips to the hill. Davis made up for lost time with a pair of quality starts, shutting down the potent Phillies and Mets offenses, allowing only ten hits and two earned runs in 13 innings of work. With a generous total of nine, look for this game to stay Under the total. Take the Under.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

DAVE MALINSKY

Yankees (RL) @ Blue Jays (RL)
PICK: Blue Jays (RL) 4*

We have been putting a fair amount of money into play against the Yankees in recent weeks, and will continue to do so as long as we get the kind of extreme value that the marketplace keeps creating. The major move to them this morning, which now enables us to take Toronto +1.5 in a pick’em range, is the latest example.

As we wrote prior to cashing that 4* ticket behind A. J. Burnett last night, these are not the Bronx Bombers in 2008. The offense is simply middle of the pack in the American League, and that means that breaking games open is not easy - they have to fight for whatever they can get. So let us put it into the proper perspective in terms of tonight. the Yankees are just 45-80 as -1.5 this season, including 21-38 on the road. That can not get you into a pick’em range against a hot opponent that is bringing a lot of fire to the table.

So does the Andy Pettitte vs. David Purcey matchup explain the line? Only in terms of reputations. As -1.5, the Yankees are just 10-16 behind Pettitte, and in his only outing vs. the Blue Jays he lost 4-1 here despite not having to go up against Alex Rios or Vernon Wells. Meanwhile Purcey brings a 2-3/5.93 to the pitching forms, but all that does is create confusion in the marketplace and bring us value. Here is the story -

The young left-hander is a solid prospect, and at AAA Syracuse worked to a 2.69 ERA over 117 innings, with 121 strikeouts vs. only 97 hits allowed. But twice in the early part of the season he was called up for one-off emergency starts when he was not ready, and it showed. But since being made a full member of the rotation it has been a different story - a 2-2/4.30 , with more strikeouts (20) than hits allowed (18) is an indication of what he can become, and note that those games include difficult road tests against the Texas and Detroit offenses. His last outing was a sparkler against the Tigers in which he worked six shutout innings, only allowing two this, and that means plenty of confidence entering tonight’s start.

The Blue Jays are just a game behind the Yankees in the standings now, which means a lot of them. They have played solid baseball under Cito Gaston, and their recent 6-1 run against the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers coincides with the return of Wells to the lineup. We do not need them to win here, just be in the hunt to the final pitch, and at pick’em that call brings strong edges.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

LEE KOSTROSKI

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: OVER

Despite offering great promise last season, 2008 has been nothing but struggles for Boston starter Clay Buchholz. The Red Sox are 1-7 in his last eight starts and Boston is just 3-11 in his 14 starts this season. Buchholz quickly surrendered a run in a relief outing in his last appearance and his ERA is 9.00 in August. Buchholz allowed four runs in five innings against Baltimore earlier this season and the Orioles have been posting big numbers on offense of late.

Baltimore is averaging 6.9 runs scored per game in the month of August and the Orioles are hitting .332 over the past ten games. The Orioles pitching staff has not been able to shut down opponents however as the Orioles have continued winning at a mediocre clip going 5-5 in the last ten. The ‘over’ is 44-18-3 in the last 65 games as runs have piled up in Baltimore games.

Chris Waters had an incredible debut start but he was hit hard in his second outing before pitching reasonably well in his third start. Waters is very inexperienced and walks could be an issue against a powerful Boston lineup. Waters was hit hard in his lone home start and Boston is a very good hitting team against left-handed pitching with a .288 average on the season. Baltimore’s offense is tempting as an underdog in this game but the ‘over’ makes the most sense as Boston has had strong success in this series.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Matt Foust

Atlanta Braves +125

The Braves and Mets square off tonight in game two of a three game set in New York. All the Braves really have to play for at this point is to stay out of last place and with the Nationals below them that should not be that difficult. The Mets, however, are atop the division and fighting to keep their 1.5 game lead over the Phillies.

Atlanta will send right hander Jair Jurrjens to the mound tonight to face a Mets lineup that has produced 5.5 runs per game over their last 10 games at Shea. Jurrjens should be undaunted, though, as he has been a nemesis to home teams all year long, but particularly of late. The Braves are 4-1 in his last five away starts and he has allowed just seven earned runs in 34 innings pitched (an astounding 1.4 earned runs per game). In Jurrjens last 10 road starts, Atlanta is 6-4 and he has allowed more than three earned runs in a game just one time.

It gets even better for the Braves. Atlanta is 2-0 against the Mets when Jurrjens has started against them and he has allowed four earned runs in 13 innings of work. This guy will eat a good number of innings and he maintains his quality stuff late into games. Atlanta should avoid the worst elements of their mediocre bullpen with Jurrjens on the mound.

Countering Jair will be Mike Pelfrey (RHP). Pelfrey is having a very good year, especially at Shea, but he has not been as effective in his last five starts. New York is 3-2 in those games but Pelfrey has yielded 14 earned runs in 29.3 innings of work. Pelfrey has also struggled against the Braves. New York is just 1-3 when he starts against Atlanta and he has given up 16 earned runs in 20.3 innings pitched. Even worse, the Mets are 0-2 at Shea when Pelfrey starts against the Braves, and he has allowed nine earned runs in 10.3 innings pitched.

Finally, despite their dismal season, Atlanta is 7-3 in their last 10 versus the Mets.

Take the value play tonight and go with Atlanta on the road.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

FRANK ROSENTHAL

955 BRAVES+125 SB
957 REDS OVER 8.5 SB
960 CARDS-215 SB
UNDER 9 SB+
961 SD UNDER 7 SB
966 SAN FRAN-115 SB
UNDER 8 SB
973 BOSOX-125 SB
977 ANGELS UNDER 9 -120 SB+

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Mike Anthony

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Kansas City Royals   

The Royals are 7-2 in their last games vs. a team with a losing record. Kansas City is 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. In their last 18 games overall vs. a lefty the Royals are a profitble 13-5. The Royals have won Meche's last 12 starts. KC is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Indians are 11-26 in their last 37 games vs. NL Central opponents. Cleveland is sending Zach Jackson to the mound and in his first start he went 5 innings giving up 8 hits and 3 ER's. ROYALS smash the Rednecks tonight!

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Tony Karpinski

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles     
Play: Baltimore Orioles 

The Boston starter Buchholz has been a money burner in his starts on the road. Buchholz is 1-8 in his team starts on the road this season with a very lofty 8.18 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. C. Buchholz is 0-3 in his last 3-team starts with a terrible 8.22 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. The Orioles are 21-11 in night games at home this season versus a right-handed starting pitcher. The Orioles bats were red-hot until being cooled off last night by Red Sox starter Matsuzaka. However in the previous 10 games they were hitting .332 as a team and scored 79 runs. Look for those bats to continue to sizzle again on Wednesday night versus a struggling starting pitcher. Play on the BALTIMORE O's

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Steve Zukiel

80 Unit MLB Grand Slam Of The Year

Chicago White Sox

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on NY Yankees -156

The Yanks need a win in the worst possible way and I like them to get it tonight behind Pettitte.  I also think New York will have Purcey's number, especially after being held to just one run yesterday.  The Yanks are 25-7 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.  The Yanks have also been the best Humpday bet in baseball at 48-19 against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 3 seasons.  Toronto is just 4-12 against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of its last 8 games this season.  We'll take the Yanks.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Dustin Hawkins

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers    
Play: Detroit Tigers

Roberston and Millwood have not been good this year, both these pitchers have had good years in there careers before. Both these teams can score and both had high expectations. I like the Tigers here in a good spot, to win a game and get Robertson back on track!!
Pick : Tigers + 114

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Joseph D'Amico

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona D-Backs    
Play: Arizona D-Backs   

The Padre's are 28-58 their last 86 games versus Arizona and 17-38 their last 55 overall. San Diego has a deplorable record of 8-21 their last 27 games played on Wednesday. The D-back's are 9-4 their last 13 games that Harens has started. San Diego is in the cellar of the N.L. West at 17 games out of first place. They own one of the worst overall records in baseball at 48-77 including a 21-39 road record. Arizona sits atop the Western division at 65-60 with a 34-26 home record. The Padre's average 3.84 RPG on the road compared to Arizona's home RPG average of 4.63. Almost a full run difference. The Diamondback's start Haren who is 9-3 at home with an ERA of 2.96. In his 21.0 innings pitched against the Padre's this season,the right-hander is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.14. For San Diego, Peavy gets the nod. The right-hander is 4-4 with an ERA of 4.14 on the road this season. Overall when Peavy starts ,the Padre's are 9-12 behind him but when Haren starts , Arizona is 16-9 behind him. These are two teams with very different points of view at this stage in the season. San Diego knows their season is over. Arizona is in a fight for first place over the Dodger's and a good shot at getting to the World Series. Arizona is the smart play here.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Vegas Wise

Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox    
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5

The Chicago White Sox will look to sweep the lowly Seattle mariners in this contest. In the first two games of the series the White Sox have out scored the Mariners 18-5. Chicago has won four straight and seven out of eight games. Conversely, The Mariners have lost five straight games and nine out of 10. The White Sox will be sending Gavin Floyd (12-6, 3.75 ERA) to the mound to take on R.A. Dickey (3-7, 4.92) of the Mariners. Dickey has split his time as a starter and as a reliever. Dickey is 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA as a starter. The White Sox lead the league with 184 home runs after clubbing two home runs in yesterday 13-5 drubbing of the mariners. The White Six are a perfect 11-0 after a game where they had six or more extra base hits. Take the White Sox to sweep the Mariners by two or more runs.

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