WEDNESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Re: WEDNESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
1.5-Unit Play. Take New York Yankees (-130) over Cleveland 1-Unit Play.
Take New York Yankees (-1.5, +170) over Cleveland
This is simple: the Yankees are 28-8 in Chien-Ming Wang’s last 36 starts and 41-14 in his last 55 starts. Cliff Lee has been a great story in this early part of the season, but he’s going to get squeezed by Brian Gorman behind the plate tonight and is facing a Yankees lineup that’s shown a little life over the last week. Lee has a career ERA of nearly 7.00 in his three starts in Yankee Stadium. Cleveland, on the other hand, is not going to be able to muster enough offense to win this game. They stole one last night on an eighth-inning homer, but they are still just 6-20 in their last 26 games in the Bronx and I see the Yankees evening this series up.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-165) over Washington
1-Unit Play. Take Houston (-1.5, +130) over Washington
This one is straight forward enough: Roy Oswalt is 64-20 in his career at home and the Astros are 45-15 in his last 60 starts overall. Yes, they have lost seven of his last 10 starts, but I’m taking the long view and backing a pitcher that wins 75 percent of the time. Odalis Perez has an ERA of 12.91 in his career against Houston and is 0-4 against the ‘Stros. Washington has lost 11 of its last 13 road games, and with Perez facing one of the hottest lineups in baseball I think that spells trouble for the Nats.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (+120) over Oakland
Random trend in this game: the A’s are just 1-10 with Joe West behind the plate. More tangible and relevant trend: Oakland has lost eight of 10 of Joe Blanton’s home starts. I am still holding to my belief that the A’s won’t sweep this four-game set here, so we’ll continue to play the value with the Orioles.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-145) over Tampa Bay
Baseball is a funny game. How else can you explain Tampa's recent dominance of the Blue Jays? The Rays are 12-5 against Toronto dating back to last year and have won five straight. Yeah, I gotta think that's coming to an end. The Jays look like they have some confidence right now and they have started to hit the ball a little better - a little, not a ton, but enough - since moving Alex Rios to the leadoff spot. And here's a Betcha Didn't Know about Matt Garza: he is 1-10 in his career on turf.
1-Unit Play. Take #954 Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) over New York Mets
First, this is a play on Brad Penny at home. The Dodgers are 21-8 in his last 29 starts at home and 40-15 in his starts as a favorite. He's always been a lights out starter in the first half of the year, and with a team that's won 10 of 11 at his back he is the play. And he fits today's theme: bet on the pitcher that wins nearly 70 percent of his starts (Penny, Oswalt, Wang). I wanted to throw the White Sox in today's games as well, but I didn't out of respect for another system I use. Anway, the Mets are 4-12 on the road against a right-handed starter, are hitting .198 over the past week (compared to .320 for L.A.), and are 9-19 overall against a righty starter recently. The day game after a night game is going to hurt the Mets and their veteran players more than it will the Dodgers. And if the Mets fall behind early they may start thinking ahead to that plane ride home.
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 San Diego at Atlanta
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Washington at Houston
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Tampa Bay at Toronto
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Re: WEDNESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
AL FREE B's
TIGERS +115 on ML over Boston--Galarraga gets it done vs Buchholz in Motown. Gallaraga has been unreal of late with a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 starts. Buchholz has been tough too. He's K's 21 over 3 starts. Detroit's bats are the difference tonight. TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 RUNS
Royals -115 on ML over Angles--Kansas City has Zach Greinke on the hill with his 1.47 ERA. He'll beat Jered Weaver in KC. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS
WHITE SOX -150 on ML over Twins--Buehrle is 20-10 career vs the Twins. He owns them ! Hernandez got roughed up in 2 of last 3 starts, allowing 12 earned runs. Take Chicago and the OVER 9 RUNS
NL FREE B's
Brewers -115 on ML over Marlins--Bush tops Badenhop. They have both been aweful so TAKE THE OVER 10 RUNS--they have huge ERA's and haven't looked good in any start.
BRAVES -170 on ML over Padres--Hudson is the man tonight for Atlanta and he'll beat Wolf and SD. Hudson's allowed only 5 earned in his last 3 starts. He allows no more than 3 runs per game. TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 RUNS
Nationals +150 on ML over Astros--Odalis Perez upsets Oswalt in Houston. Perez has no luck ! His ERA over last 3 outings is 1.89 with 18 K's,. although he's never beaten the Astros. Tonight he does it !
Re: WEDNESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Game: Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Lakers ? AiS shows a 70% probability that the Lakers will win this game by 8 or more points. The potential hangover from the MVP announcement and reward is a bit of a concern to me. Yet, the same principles that supported Lakers in Game 1 will aply in this game as well. Lakers Gasol blanketed Boozer and made him largely ineffective in Game 1. Utah will obviously attempt to rotate the ball to the open man on the perimeter and Boozer will be looking for that pass as well when guarded tightly in the paint. Still, the physical presence of the Lakers defense in Game 1 is not going to be defeated by Utah any time soon. Lakers also will run at every opportunity. Utah does not do well in this type of game as they are 6-28 ATS (-24.8 Units) in road games when they allow 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Lakers are 43-12 ATS (+29.8 Units) when they score 105 or more points in a game this season. AiS shows a 90% probability that the Lakers will score 105 or more points in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 78-38 for a 67% ATS mark since 2002. Play on home teams after 3 or more consecutive wins and in a game involving two good teams sporting winning percentages between 60% to 75%. Take the Lakers.
Re: WEDNESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
20 Dime –
Take the Magic minus the points in Game 3 of their series with the Pistons.
I’ve got to believe the Magic are going to come out in desperation mode tonight. To be honest, they gave a great effort in Game 2 and Detroit was lucky to come out of that game with the win, let alone cover.
The Magic poured it on in the 3rd quarter of Monday’s loss, posting 36 points. They avoided turnovers and didn’t force any shots and it paid off with that impressive run.
They are more than capable of doing that tonight on their home court.
Never underestimate the importance of home court advantage in the playoffs. There’s a reason this line is set where it is. Come on, the Pistons have beaten the Magic nine straight times in the playoffs and Orlando is still listed as a 3 to 3 ½ point favorite.
That tells you something right there.
The straight-up winner is 19-1-1 ATS in Orlando’s last 20 games and 16-0 ATS in Detroit’s last 16.
The Magic are going to win this game, folks. Not only are they going to do it, they’re going to cover this spread comfortably.
Take Orlando minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
10 Dime –
Let’s back the Lakers again in Game 2 of their series with the Jazz.
To be honest the Lakers didn’t even play their best in Game 1, yet were still able to not only win, but do so by double-digits.
That’s a scary thought if you’re a Jazz fan.
Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol have clicked together since day one, and their chemistry is a huge reason the Lakers are heavy favorites to get to the NBA championship series.
Los Angeles is 5-0 SUATS through its first five postseason games and tonight should make it six-for-six.
The Lakers have also gone 4-1 SUATS against the Jazz this year, and have won all three games at Staples Center by double-digit margins.
The host is also 8-3 SU and ATS in the last 11 meetings in this rivalry, and the winner has cashed in each of those 11 battles.
The Lakers are too deep, too talented and their chemistry is second to none right now.
Lay the points with the Lakers as they grab the win and cover.
Take the Pirates for the home win tonight over the Giants.
The Bucs put a 12-spot on the scoreboard in last night’s win over the Giants and I’d be surprised if they didn’t approach that number again tonight.
That’s because Barry Zito is starting for San Francisco and this guy has completely lost it as a pitcher. The left-hander is 0-6 with a 7.53 ERA in six games this year. He’s allowed 41 hits and walked 15 batters in just 28 2-3 innings.
The Pirates do feature a couple of hitters, namely Nate McLouth, Jason Bay and Xavier Nady who can do some damage to Zito tonight.
They’ve also been successful against the Giants overall, winning 11 of the last 13 meetings with them.
The Giants have lost six of their last nine games overall.
Take the Pirates as they grab the home win.
Re: WEDNESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
San Diego Padres (+145) vs. Atlanta Braves (-165)
The 12-21 San Diego Padres and their 6-12 road record will be looking to rebound from a 5-3 loss yesterday in Atlanta. Randy Wolf will take the mound with his 2-1 overall record and respectable 3.57 ERA. Batters are only batting .227 against Wolf for the season. On the Road this year Randy is 1-0 with a 3.93 ERA and hitters are averaging .250 against him. The 16-15 Atlanta Braves and their good 12-4 home record will be looking for win number 2 of the series tonight. Tim Hudson will get the start tonight with his 4-2 overall record and just a 2.95 ERA. Opposing batters are only hitting .238 against Hudson on the season. Tim Hudson at home this year has been unbeaten at 3-0 with a low 1.66 ERA. The San Diego Padres are the second lowest scoring team in the league at 3.4 runs per game and they also have the second worst hits stat in the league at 8.1 per game. The Braves on the other hand have the second best hits stat in the league at 10.1 per game and they also have the second stingiest defense in the league at 3.8 runs per game. Atlanta is the far superior team in this match up tonight and with Tim Hudson and his undefeated record on the mound we have to take Atlanta to win this ball game.
LOCK = Atlanta Braves -165
Re: WEDNESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Orlando -3 to Detroit--Magic get one back at least with a strong performance against the Pistons. Going home was the medicine they needed. Orlando actually looked better in Game 2 at Detroit. They got screwed by the refs. Tonight is all Orlando baby !
LAKERS -6.5 to Jazz--Kobe celebrates his MVP by going off on the Jazz in Game 2. The Lakers handled the Jazz in Game 1 and they'll do it again. Utah won't get in to this series until they get back to Salt Lake. Kobe had 38-6-7 in the opener of the series. The Jazz committed 34 fouls in Game 1. Utah is 9-11 as a dog. LA wins 77% as a favorite and 73% at Staples. Take the Lake Show !
Re: WEDNESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Magic -3.5 (POD)
You got the play yesterday so you should have gotten a proper line.
I've already released a play on this game, and yesterday I took the Celts rather than take the under which was my other lean, but today, I am not likely to do that and take both the side and the total of this game. Do you know why Detroit has covered the last 3 of 4 and the last 2 ballgames these 2 teams have played,it is because those 4 ballgames at Detroit, this series is going to be much different in Orlando and there is a reason why I left yesterday's thoughts on the Detroit vs. Orlando up as this series would be drastically different as the Magic were cheated out of Game 2 in my opinion, after all, I am still upset at that call as this team deserves to have had a better chance to win that game as they played exceptionally well as they did not cover, although the game did go over, but they could have won that game outright. Why do I feel bad for the Magic? Well, this team was swept last year by the Pistons and have lost 6 straight playoff games to them, heck, that is why they blew them out in the first game of the season against the Pistons at home as they had a great deal of revenge from that playoff series sweep that they faced. Look for the Magic to do well today as they are rightfully favored. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Pistons are 0-5 ATS as small dogs of 0-5 points.
I would love to give a long and elaborate write-up, but given that I have several other plays to write and want to get ahead for the research in the upcoming days to get the plays out earlier for better lines, this will be relatively short and sweet. I will tack on the research that I put on the website today so that it will give additional insight into the play. Long story short here, I want to take a shot on Zito after his embarassing reassignment back down to triple AAA after his horrible 0-6 start as the Giants hope that a little embarassment will get the once start to have a solid outing today. There is no reason why the Pirates and Dour should be favored today, so I will take the dog price as it has solid value as I am betting on the pride of Zito to finally have a quality start today:
Zito is 0-6 with a 7+ ERA. The guy is simply horrible. However, he was sent back down to triple AAA in an embarassing move for the gent that this team shelved out incredible amount of money for him to be their pitcher of the future as he was throwing gas balls. Got to love the A's for getting rid of him and putting up some young guns, heck, they have now even recycled Haren and now have Greg Smith to replace him as they have kept a good throwing hurler like Blanton as well. Does Zito take the sending back down to triple AAA to heart and show up against the lowly Pirates today? Dumatrait had a 9 ERA in his last start but received 11 runs of total offense last time out. Look, I'm no fan of Zito, but he had to take the fact he was a proud pitcher that got sent back down to triple a, the highest paid pitcher to do so likely for a reassignment for absolutely being terrible. I might take a shot on the pride of Zito today at the dog price
Long story short, great value on the Nats today with the better pitcher. Here was the research that I placed on the website: Perez has pitched 6 of 7 quality starts and he has yet to pick up a win because Washington cannot score a run worth a lick. But Perez has pitched in 5 straight unders to his credit, Oswalt has been steadily giving up 3 runs in 6 innings, but he needs a dominating home start as he has a 7.41 ERA at home surprisingly, maybe the ol' man is losing his speed? who knows? But, I do like him stepping up at home today against a ballclub that scores 3.97 runs per game. I don't like the under 8.5 very much but there is value here and heck, there is even great value on Washington today as they actually have the more consistent pithcer on the mound.
Cards/Rockies Under 9
Great price here on the Cards with a pitcher that is 3-1 with a 2.6 ERA. He didn't pick up a win in his last ballgame out although wain went a little more than 6 inns and gavce up just 1 run. Francis got spanked in his last start by the Dodgers, he is on a bounce-back, helped the Rockies win both games against the Cards last year with a 2.57 and 2.35 ERA both times, this has the under written over it today as Wain is 3-1-1 to the under of late as well. Thus, long story short here, you can get an opportunity to take a pitcher that has pitched very consistently on the road and at home not to mention Francis who has historically pithced well against the Cards that comes off his worst start of the year, look for the Under in Coors today.
Diamondbacks RL +146
s you know I don't do the RL very often, but I did do the A's RL a while back at +133 with sound success and the RL makes a great deal of sense today. Kendrick is 2-1 with a 6.05 ERA on the road this year and Owings comes off back to back horrible starts including a start against the Mets where he got absolutely spanked as he gave up a season high 11 hits in less than 6 innings and 7 runs to boot. This is great value on the Dbacks today in my opinion facing a young pitcher in Kendrick who struggles on the road and Owings on the bounce-back here. Dbacks were averaging 6 runs per ballgame just recently so I will take them on the RL here givcen value at nearly a dollar and a half.