Saturday Service Plays

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Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report

NBA

Saturday: Play Against NBA road teams revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more 55-21 ATS last 5 seasons (72.4%) PLAY: Houston (no line at press time)

CBB

Saturday: Play On CBB home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a cover as a double digit favorite, with four starters returning from last season 39-12 ATS since 1997 (76.5%) PLAY: UC-Irvine -pk

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THE SPORTS REPORTER

BEST BET
VILLANOVA over *PROVIDENCE by 12
Two of the Big East’s problem children, but Friars also have coaching stability issues, and Nova will almost certainly perform better here than they do at the Wachovia Center.Providence somehow came up with a road win against offensively-challenged Cincinnati,but not looking for a pair of such rank upsets from a program which has failed to rise to the occasion with depressing consistency, this season.

VILLANOVA 83-71


BEST BET
*ORLANDO over GOLDEN STATE by 15
The Magic enter this game with two huge advantages over Golden State: they have
Dwight Howard and a cast of long and lean swingmen, who give them a sizable rebounding advantage over the Warriors; and the Magic are playing their third game of the week after two full days of rest, compared to a Golden State team playing their fifth game of the week – and fourth straight on the road. Orlando has proven that they can hang with the big boys, and while the Warriors may not be one of the top seeds in the West, they certainly would be one of the top teams of the East. But even that won’t be enough considering the inherent disadvantages they face tonight.

ORLANDO 115-100

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WINNINGPOINTS


**BEST BET
*Orlando over Golden State by 15
Golden State needs its legs to win, but this marks the Warriors’ fourth road game in
five days. Golden State entered this month failing to cover in seven of its past nine
matchups. Dwight Howard should be in line for another huge performance against
the Warriors’ small frontcourt. Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu certainly can put up
huge scoring numbers with the Warriors ranking last in defense, yielding around 108
points per game.
ORLANDO 125-110


***BEST BET
*Memphis over Boston by 2
The Celtics haven’t proven invincible, having lost to the lowly Bobcats. This spot is
fraught with danger for Boston coming off a home game last night vs. the improved
Bulls and with a road game against division rival Philadelphia on tap. The Grizzlies
have been idle since Wednesday giving them plenty of time to concentrate on winning this home matchup, which could mean a lot considering how disastrous their season has been. Rudy Gay continues to impress for the Grizzlies.
MEMPHIS 100-98


NCAA

***BEST BET
Louisville over Georgetown* by 9
That’s a very good Georgetown team, but Little Ricky is playing for a title before the
Tournament, and we don’t mean the Big East Tournament. Ah, the Padgett-ry!
Louisville’s center is the one who can step out and make the shots that make a difference.Also, their guards can bully the Hoyas’ guards a little bit as long as the refs do not get nit-picky simply because the Hoyas are home. Louisville has been taught to
play at multiple tempos (like UCLA), so the G-Town grind is not a problem.
LOUISVILLE 69-60


***BEST BET
Air Force* over San Diego State by 14
Coastal kids on depth-shy road teams just love being forced to play defense for 35 seconds on every possession at high altitude this late in the season, wink-wink. And, they also love trying to attack zone defenses with guards who make questionable decisions wink-wink. San Diego State, even if they win this, is going to the NIT or CBI with their eventual 20+ wins and they know it. So there is no need for one week of ultra focus on this game with the Mountain West Tournament on the horizon. The halftime score at San Diego State was 17-16, so Air Force did a pretty good job of getting the Aztecs to play their game despite eventually losing, and that was when SDS still had second-leading scorer Kyle Spain, since booted.
AIR FORCE 58-44



***BEST BET
Duquesne* over Saint Louis by 19
Not sure that Saint Louis’ defense is currently built to handle an up-tempo team on
the road this late in the season, or anytime really. St. Joe’s? Fine, no prob, they’re not going to run anyone out of the building. But the key to drubbing Saint Louis is to get a lead, which Duquesne can probably run out to. When you force Saint Louis to play catch-up, you get some ugly long-range shots forced by tiring players who aren’t meant to be doing what they’re trying to do.
DUQUESNE 79-60

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Handicappers World

NBA

Celtics @ Grizzlies
Grizzlies +11

NCAA

Minnesota U. @ Illinois
Illinois -4 (HUGE)

UNC @ Duke
UNC +1

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Strike Point Sports

RICE -2

Yes, Rice is that bad. But SMU isn't that far behind them. The fact that the Owls are winless in C-USA and would like nothing more than to change that, coupled with Senior Night, is reason enough to back them for a win in the season finale. If they can't get up for those two previous mentioned reasons, well, then they deserve to run the league table in reverse.

PROVIDENCE -1½

The Friars are coming off a big win over Connecticut, and they'll finish out the Big East schedule with another win at home. 'Nova has dropped five of its last six road games in the conference, and that's because this young team is still growing. We'll see the Friars come out strong and take this one from the start.

OREGON -1½

So many times this year we have seen this Wildcats team go back and forth from being a contender to a dud in a matter of games. They just routed the lowly Beavers of Oregon State, but as they stay in the state of Portland, they'll fall to a Ducks team looking to play spolier. One of the best home courts in the nation, Eugene will be electric looking to send its seniors out as winners.

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Matt Rivers

ARIZONA STATE

Against any other team laying double digits like this on the road with a defensive type team, which the Sun Devils are, is the most preposterous thing that could ever be done. But and a big but here as this Oregon State team is sooo disgusting that they should be extremely embarrased and placed in Division three immediately! I truly do not know how the Beavers can be as bad as they are. This is a major division one program and should boast at least a few athletes which should be enough to be competitive at home. This just continues to not be the case though as these guys get crushed like an ant under the foot of a dinosaur. Oregon State was just taken behind the woodshed by a mediocre Arizona team at home on Thursday. The Beavs were leading 10-8 and then trailed at the half 40-18. This comes a few weeks after they opened the game at USC trailing something like 32-6, with more nonsense in between. And Yes as in 32-6. The numbers are mindboggling but somehow this program has gotten even worse after the firing of Jay John. Arizona State is not exactly an offensive juggernaut but they do have NCAA tournament aspirations, boast a very very good defense and have guys in Pendergraf and Harden who can really play and should dominate from start to finish here. Herb Sendek has turned this program from an Oregon State to a total competitor game in and game out which has included outright wins at Washington, Arizona and Cal. Because the Devils are not a high octane offense this thing should be closer than other recent Oregon State games but in the end the Beavers are disgusting mush and should once again fail!


Jeff Benton

5* TEXAS TECH

Basically, I’m banking on the Red Raiders playing with some heart and passion today after Monday’s debacle at Kansas – and debacle is being kind. Texas Tech suffered its worst margin of defeat in school history at Kansas, falling 109-51 as a 19½-point road underdog. Gotta believe after that shellacking that coach Pat Knight channeled his inner Bob Knight and ran his players ragged in practice all week, challenging their manhood along the way. So I expect the Red Raiders to rise to the occasion today against Baylor. After all, the Bears are just 1-4 in their last five conference road games, and while they did cash in three of those contests, this is virtually a pick-em game, so the pointspread is pretty much meaningless. Meanwhile, in its most recent home game a week ago today, Tech knocked off then-No. 5 Texas 83-80, improving to 13-2 SU and 10-2 ATS at home this season, including 6-1 SU and ATS when hosting Big 12 rivals. Finally, when these teams met on Baylor’s home floor in Waco exactly a month ago, Texas Tech gave the Bears all they could handle, succumbing 80-74, but cashing as a 7½-point road chalk. When you consider that the Red Raiders have lost five other conference road games this season by margins of 19, 26, 11, 45 and 58 points, a six-point road loss is damn-near a victory! Again, look for a nice bounce-back for Texas Tech on Senior Day today as the home team improves to 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in this rivalry.


Jake Timlin

BYU COUGARS

Even with the league title in the bank there is no way the Cougars can afford any kind of set back tonight against what is a struggling TCU squad. Not when BYU might just have to depend on an at large bid to the bid dance due to the conference tournament being played in Vegas. Well thanks to BYU having won by 11 in the first meeting as the Cougars now face a TCU team that has only 1 cover win over their last 6 games and playing without their best player and it has shown with the Horned Frogs by 21 point last game out BYU should only pad their record tonight. Bottom line BYU is the leagues best and it will show once again in Fort Worth as the Cougars double up tonight’s spread. Take the Cougars minus the road chalk!


Scott Delaney

2* NORTH CAROLINA

The No. 1 team in the nation is playing with the same purpose and cause the Devils were playing with when they went into Chapel Hill and stole the first meeting. Now it's time for Roy Williams' bunch to do the same. I know the Heels have dropped two straight to the bookmakers, but they were laying 16-1/2 and 11, and won by double digits in both - they just didn't cover. Here, tonight, it's about the outright win, and that's what we're going to see with the ACC title at stake, the No. 1 seed in the tournament at stake and a potential No. 1 seed in the Big Dance at stake as well. I am much more confident with North Carolina's offense than Duke's, as it is averaging 90 points a game, and is 14-0 SU and 9-5 ATS on the road this season thanks to an offense that is outscoring teams by an average margin of 12 points per win. The Heeels went into Durham and won by six last season, then closed the season with a 14-point win at home. This year the Heels are better, and this year they're out for revenge. Play the road team here, as UNC rolls to the easy win and cover.


Tony Weston

3* UTAH JAZZ

Denver has been facing tough challenges lately and is in the middle of a horrendous portion of their schedule where they’ve faced the Houston Rockets, Suns, Spurs and will play the Jazz tonight and the Spurs again on Monday. After playing a physically tough Spurs team last night, the Nuggets have to deal with the youth and quickness of the Jazz who are 5-1 SU and ATS their last six games, including four straight winners. In that four-game stretch the Jazz have scored an average of 115 points per game, while only giving up 99 points per. Each team comes into this game after significant travel and will be on equal footing in that aspect. However, the Jazz are too hot and the Nuggets will be too tired.

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National Sports Advisors
Utah -5.5


SportsAction365
Golden St +7.5


Maddux Sports
Wake Forest -6


Joe Wiz
Central Florida
UNLV


TV Hotline
Memphis CBB


Cappers Access
Georgetown
Kansas
Stanford


Scott Spreitzer
Wake Forest


Gold Sheet
Miami Florida by10
Temple by 17
NC Charlotte by 4


Razor Sharp Sports
BYU

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SPORTSMEMO NEWSLETTER

SONNY PALERMO
DENVER-UTAH
Recommendation: Jazz


JARED KLEIN
DALLAS-COLORADO
Recommendation: Avalanche


ERIN RYNNING
GOLDEN STATE-ORLANDO
Recommendation: Magic


FAIRWAY JAY
BAYLOR-TEXAS TECH
Recommendation: Baylor


BRENT CROW
BAYLOR-TEXAS TECH
Recommendation: Texas Tech


ROB VENO
NC STATE - WAKE FOREST
Recommendation: WAKE FOREST

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Nick Parsons

*BIG GAME ALERT** PARSONS TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR

Nick Parsons is a PERFECT 3-0 with his "Game of the Year" selections in March and a FANTASTIC 16-7 for the month overall. That includes yesterday's 4-0 SWEEP. The "Madness" is just getting started though and so is "Mr. March." Join him for his CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR!

Idaho St. +3.5

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Cajun-Sports

Auburn Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Rating: TWO-Star

Selection:ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS -13

Analysis: Bud Walton Arena will be filled to capacity as the Razorbacks host their final regular season game against SEC foe Auburn. The Razorbacks are one bucket away from being a perfect 5-0 ats in their last five times to post at home. It appears Arkansas has secured a ticket to the dance but they have four senior starters that will be playing their final game of the year at home and want to go out with a win. Games are always about match ups and this one provides us with an obvious advantage for the Hogs as they only allow around 30% shooting from behind the arc and their perimeter defense has been solid this season. This creates a problem for the Tigers as they have already tried to defeat this Hogs team back on January 10th at home but they were only able to convert 9 of 35 from behind the trey line and we expect the same difficulty here tonight. For technical support we find that AUBURN is 18-33 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite since 1997 and 1-8 ATS off back-to-back ?unders?. We also know that teams off 3 ATS losses and now installed as a conference favorite of 10 to 14 points have a record of 132-93-7 ATS. If they are installed as a home favorite under the same price range they are 117-82-6 ATS. Finally we note that teams off 4 ATS losses who are installed as a favorite of 10 to 14 points have a record of 59-36-2 ATS and if they are a home favorite in the same price range they are 50-31-1 ATS. Lay the chalk with the Hogs here as they roll the boys from the plains.

Arkansas 87 Auburn 66

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GINA

Indiana Pacers (24-38) at Cleveland Cavaliers (35-27)

The struggling Indiana Pacers have dropped eight of their last 11 games and six straight at Indiana. Go with the Cavaliers and "King James" on their home court for a season sweep of the Pacers. Cleveland is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games versus Indiana and the favorite in this series is 11-1-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

Cleveland Cavaliers


Cleveland Cavaliers - 7.5
Houston Rockets - 6

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MR A

Cleveland Cavaliers - 7.5
Orlando Magic - 7.5
Utah Jazz - 5.5


COMPUTER SPORTS

KANSAS-5 1/2
MARQUETTE+1

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JOHNNY GUILD

Denver Nuggets (36-24) at Utah Jazz (40-22)

Utah has been tough to beat at home, 27-3 this season and has won ten of the last 15 meetings versus the Nuggets, including five of the last seven clashes at home. Denver also plays well at home, but like the Jazz have not been successful road teams, just 12-17 away from home this season. Take the home team in this battle. The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and has lost 25 of its last 29 battles in Utah.

Utah Jazz - 5.5


NCAAB

UCLA Bruins - 16
Texas A&M Aggies + 5.5
Xavier Musketeers - 17

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Paul Leiner

10* USC Pk
10* Villanova +1.5
5* Kansas State -4


ARTHUR RALPH

Iowa State


2-Minute Warning

UNLV

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LOCK OF THE DAY

NCAA Lock:UAB +14.5

First Lock: Do not underestimate this UAB team. They can play. UAB is 22-8 this season and headed to the NCAA Tournament. Memphis is very good. But Memphis has big problems shooting free throws. Free throws are extremely important! UAB pushed Memphis to the brink two weeks ago! They lost that game by ONE POINT! UAB is confident they can compete with this Memphis team. Take this underdog!!

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Armvin Sports

CBB
Wake Forest -6
Texas Tech -1.5
Marquette 1
Rhode Island -6.5
Loyola Maryland -3
Montana -3


NHL
Washington 101
St Louis 147

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Paul Stone

Texas A&M +5.5

The Kansas Jayhawks have already lost outright this season in Austin and Stillwater and now travel to College Station where Texas A&M can be a tough out.

The Jayhawks have failed to cover their past six games on the road and also have only brought home the money twice in their past seven games overall.

Texas A&M appeared to be one of the nation's better teams early in the season, but is now hanging on for its NCAA Tournament life.

Look for the Aggies to put forth a supreme effort today and stay within the 5 1/2-point number and possibly even get the straightup victory.

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Tom Freese

Game: Washington at Washington St.
Prediction: Washington St.

Reason: Washington is 38-17 ATS after scoring 55 or less points in their last game and they are 14-5 ATS off three straight games where there was a combined score of 125 or less points. The Cougars won the last two meetings on this court vs. the Huskies by 10 and 28 points. Washington is 1-8 ATS off a game where both teams scored 80 or more points and they are 2-6 ATS of an ATS loss. the Huskies are 2-6 ATS as underdogs of 7 to 12.5 points.

PLAY ON WASHINGTON ST

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Locksmith Sports Picks

1 Unit on Orlando Magic -7.5

Orlando has just about everything going in its favor here.  It is red hot, well rested, on its home floor, and facing a team which will not be fresh after playing last night.  The Magic have won 8 of their last 10 games SU and ATS.  They are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against Golden State.  Orlando is 20-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, 18-7 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons, 11-2 ATS in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons, and 24-7 ATS after one or more consecutive overs this season.  The Warriors do not have the beef to contend with Dwight Howard down low.  We'll lay the points.

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Dallas Mavs -12

The media will play up the Jason Kidd versus his former team story line, but I don't see any bad blood here that is really going to want to make on team or the other kill each other.  The Mavs are simply the much better squad and have been unstoppable at home all season.  Dallas is 25-4 in home games while the Nets are only 11-19 on the road.  The Mavs are coming off a rare 3-game slide and were embarrassed at home by Houston.  Get ready to see Dallas breakout with a huge offensive explosion here.  The Nets have lost 4 in a row and are 0-3-1 ATS in those games.  Dallas is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games with the Nets.  New Jersey is 0-8 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons.  Take Dallas in this bounce back spot.

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