Nuggets vs. Bucks Pick
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Bucks are a 2.5-point favorite on the spread line. The over-under is set at 214 points. Milwaukee opened as a 4.5-point fave before the line was bet down. Conversely, the the over-under opened at 210.5 before jumping up to its current total.
As of Thursday afternoon, 69 percent of public bets have sided with the Bucks. Online wager info also shows that 63 percent of bets are being placed on the over.
The total has jumped in part because of the notion that the Nuggets are a free-flowing team that can score in bunches and plays very little defense. That would be wrong as Denver is capable defensively and actually has two elite defenders in shooting guard Gary Harris and center Nikola Jokic. Unders are 31-26 in Denver games this season. Meanwhile, the over used to be a good play in Milwaukee games but since the firing of Jason Kidd as head coach it is a team very much recommitted to defense. The under has hit in nine of the last 10 Bucks games. So while Denver is scoring at a rapid rate lately, expect its point production to go down somewhat due to the matchup.
As for recent history, the Nuggets have covered the spread in six of the last 10 meetings including both games last season. The over-under is even at 5-5. Denver comes in having won two in a row straight up and the over has hit in its last four games. The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10, while the over is 8-2. Milwaukee has won two in a row straight up and five of six. The Bucks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests, while the under as already stated has gone 9-1.
NBA DAILY PREDICTION: NUGGETS/BUCKS UNDER 214