Tigers vs. White Sox Sunday Prediction
Matt Boyd is quietly having an excellent season and the Tigers are a reasonably-priced favorite on the money line Sunday against the White Sox. That said, will the light-hitting Tigers provide Boyd with enough run support?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Sunday, April 28, 2019
2:10 p.m. ET, Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
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Public Betting Trends
According to our MLB Public Betting Chart page, 55% of the betting tickets are on the Tigers to beat the White Sox on the moneyline.
Detroit Tigers Fantasy Spin
Nicholas Castellanos homered for the second consecutive game as the Tigers fell to the White Sox on Friday. The 27-year-old went the first 20 games of the season without a home run, before he knocked one off of the Pesky pole on Thursday. He didn't waste any time adding to that total, crushing an opposite-field solo shot off of Carlos Rodon in the first inning on Friday. He also singled and drew a walk in the contest, finishing the night 2-for-5 with a pair of runs scored. For the season, he's hitting .267/.330/.444 with two long balls and eight RBI.
Chicago White Sox Fantasy Spin
Jose Abreu had a monster night at the plate in Friday's loss to the Tigers, going 4-for-5 with a homer and five RBI. Abreu got the White Sox on the board in the first inning with a run-scoring single off of Daniel Norris. He then clobbered a two-run homer off of Zac Reininger in the sixth inning that pulled the White Sox to within two runs at 10-8. His next trip to the dish, he knocked another one into the stands in left field, but was only credited with a two-run single (instead of a three-run homer), because he inadvertently passed Tim Anderson (who had gone back to the base to tag up) while rounding first base. Abreu's bat has woken up in recent weeks and he's now slashing .260/.333/.490 with five homers and 24 RBI.
MLB Betting Trends
The Tigers are just 7-17 in Boyd’s last 24 road starts but are 7-3 in his last 10 outings overall.
The White Sox are 5-2 in Reynaldo Lopez’s last seven home starts.
Boyd has 39 strikeouts in just 31 1/3 innings for a 31% strikeout rate and is generating a swinging strike rate of 16.1%. Guaranteed Rate Field plays more to hitters than pitchers, but Boyd can handle a White Sox offense has is merely average against left-handed pitching. The question is whether or not the Tigers can do enough damage against Lopez to cash as a -115 money line favorite. Lopez is coming off back-to-back good starts but struggles with walks. Honestly, I expect both pitchers to fare well, but I don’t trust the under in this park and these pens. Thus, I’ll side with Boyd and roll the dice that Detroit’s offense gives him just enough run support.
The Pick: Detroit Tigers -115