Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 12

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards -6

The Wizards are well rested here with 3 days off and come in off a road win. When they are home and favored off a road favored cover they are a solid 8-2 ats. The Pistons are 0-7 ats on the season. For the Power system we note that Home favorites of 5 or more with 3+ days rest off a road favored win and cover scoring and allowing 90 or more points have covered 90% since 1997 vs an opponent like Detroit that failed to cover as a road dog in their last game. Washington has the advantages in this one and on side note. over the last 17 games in this series the winner has covered 16 times. Look for Washington to emerge with a win and cover.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jack Jones

Bowling Green -13

The Bowling Green Falcons can clinch at least a share of the MAC East Title Wednesday night with a win over Kent State. They currently hold a two-game lead in the division and have tiebreaker advantages over two of their top three pursuers. For all intents and purposes, if they win Wednesday, they will be going to the MAC Championship to defend their conference title after winning it last year.

Bowling Green has put itself in this position by playing its best football over the past month. It has won four of its last five games with its only loss coming to Western Michigan, which is right in the thick of the MAC West race with a 4-1 record within the conference. Two of its five wins came in blowout fashion on the road over Ohio (31-13) and Akron (27-10), which are two of its closest pursers in the MAC East.

The Falcons really struggled defensively through the first half of the season, but they have picked it up on this side of the ball in their last three games. They are only giving up an average of 16.3 points per game during this stretch. They are certainly capable of shutting down this weak Kent State offense this week.

The Golden Flashes are 1-8 straight up and 3-6 against the spread in all games this season. They have been atrocious offensively, averaging just 14.8 points and 303.6 yards per game to rank 120th in total offense out of 128 teams. They haven’t been much better on the other side of the ball, surrendering 29.4 points and 425.8 yards per game this season.

Kent State has really been poor on the road. It is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in all road games this season. It is scoring just 7.5 points per game and allowing 34.5 points per game away from home, getting outscored by an average of 27.0 points per game away from home. It will be up against a Bowling Green team that is 3-1 at home this year, scoring 35.7 pints per game and averaging 469.7 yards per game in 2014 home games.

Plays on any team (BOWLING GREEN) – an average team (+/- 5 PPG differential) against a terrible team (At Least -10 PPG differential), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Bowling Green is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 vs. a team with a losing record. Kent State is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall.

Dave Price

Brooklyn Nets +5½

This line is an overreaction to Phoenix's win over Golden State. The Nets have won five straight in the series and are in good position to extend the streak. Brooklyn has been a terrific investment when on the road and rested, going 17-4 ATS the last three seasons in road games when playing six games or less in a 14-day span. You want to take November underdogs that carry a win percentage of 60-75% as doing so has produced a 46-19 ATS mark the last five seasons.

Ari Atari

Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Houston Rockets -6½

Houston had to lose one eventually and it happened at home to the Golden State Warriors without the presence of Dwight Howard. Both point guards will be absent but Rubio’s production value will be missed more. Terrence Jones is listed as questionable but the nerve discomfort in his leg has the Rockets being cautious.

Houston will move its offense through James Harden who handles the ball extremely well for his size. Kevin Martin may be excited to go up against his trading block partner that sent him off to Minnesota. Martin can trade buckets but he can’t get his legs in front of Harden’s path. Minnesota’s overall defense plays into the Rockets offense. Slashing and kicking out all night long, Houston will expose Minnesota’s help defense issues with open shots available for a much deeper Rockets bench of scorers. Dwight is good to go here and there are no lookahead issues here with the 76ers and the depleted Thunder ahead with days off in between.

Houston has been home for the last 6 days and should be ready to go here. The Wolves are on a 3 game road trip with 2 more to go. The main issue that hurts this play, even though it has blowout written all over it, is the fact that it’s heavy the public favorite.

The line will move and I’m suggesting you take this one with a half point buy to take it to -6 or the full point to -5.5. I’m going to pay the extra juice from -120 to -130 to make this play safer but will not be allowed to buy the point with my official free pick on this site.

The public places a spotlight on this one but the bottom line is Minnesota can’t compete at their best under a pressing current schedule without their floor general. Houston can make it rain and win by 10-18 points as I’m expecting or they can keep this one close with free throws making or breaking the spread.

Jesse Schule

Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -6

The Orlando Magic played last night in Toronto, and they jumped out to a good start, out-scoring the Raptors 32-24 in the 1st quarter. They held the lead all the way to the 4th quarter, but collapsed in the final frame, losing 104-100. The Magic now play their second game in as many nights on the road in New York, and I don't fancy their chances of getting a positive result here.

The Knicks are in no position to take the visitors lightly, as they've had their own struggles. New York ranks dead last in the NBA in scoring, and Carmelo Anthony comes in shooting just 33.9% during a five game losing skid. They couldn't ask for a better opponent though as they look to turn things around.

The Magic have failed to cover while losing four straight trips to New York, and they are just 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Knicks overall. Playing the back end of a back to back off such a tough loss looks like a spot where the visitors might lay down. The Knicks should be able to put this one to bed early, as I don't expect much fight out of this Orlando team.

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Jim Feist

Utah Jazz vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -7½

Utah is a long way from home and a weak all around team, especially on the road. Atlanta has yet to lose at home and the Jazz is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Utah plays its third straight road game, off a loss at Indiana by 9. Paul Millsap scored 19 points, Schroder extended his best stretch in the NBA with two big baskets in the final 2 minutes, and the Atlanta Hawks sent the Knicks to their fifth straight loss with a 91-85 victory Monday night. Kyle Korver added 17 points as Atlanta finished a home-and-home sweep, including a 103-96 win Saturday at home. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. When these teams meet the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the favorite is 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings. Utah is 1-5 ATS against the Hawks, including 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.

Sam Martin

Ball St. at Massachusetts
Play: Massachusetts

Having UMass open as a three-point home favorite implies these teams are evenly matched and the line would be a straight pick 'em if played on a neutral field. That's not the case - UMass is a better team (especially on offense) and we'll jump all over this line value and take the Minutemen here at home at a great price.

Ball State does have one more win than UMass, but that was thanks to a far easier non-conference schedule that saw them line up as 18-pt favorites twice vs. FCS schools (even lost one of those games outright) while UMass lined up as 16+ point underdogs in all four of their non-conference tilts. Both teams allowing 32 ppg in conference play, but UMass is scoring a full 9 ppg more than the Cardinals (vs. MAC teams). Minutemen are better and they prove it Wednesday night!

EZWINNERS

UMass -175

The Minutemen are just 2-7 straight up, but they have lost five of those games by a touchdown or less. They have also played a brutal schedule that included games against big boys Penn State, Boston College, Vanderbilt and Colorado. Ball State doesn't have a whole lot of offensive fire power, but they will put up some points against this UMass defense. I just don't see them matching scores with the Minutemen offense that is sixth in the nation in passing offense at just over 330 yards per game. UMass has not played a game in eighteen days so I am a bit concerned about a slow start. Ball State is also a very strong road dog where they are 28-9 against the spread but this is a big game for the Minutemen being on national TV and I expect them to pick up the win. Play UMass on the moneyline.

LT Profits

Indiana / Miami Under 188.5

This would have been a marquee battle if it were last season, but as it stands, do not expect many fireworks when the Indiana Pacers visit the Miami Heat. Obviously LeBron James is gone from Miami but the Pacers have a slew of injuries, first and foremost losing Paul George for the season when he broke his leg scrimmaging with Team USA. Indiana is also without David West, George Hill, C.J, Watson and Rodney Stuckey, and it has shown ranking 26th in the NBA with 93.0 points per game. The defense has actually continued to play well however despite that MASH unit, ranking fourth in points against at 94.6 per game. The Heat are off to a 5-2 start with new addition Luol Deng trying to make up for LeBron’s points, and they are on a 4-0 ‘under’ run. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the Heat’s last six home games vs. teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

Brandon Shively

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -5.5

I like Boston in this spot to cover this spread and win by double digits more than likely. The Thunder as we all know are being killed with injuries. Their struggles on the road are well noted and they are playing on a back-to-back tonight vs. a Boston team that is playing on 3 days rest. The Celtics have had no trouble scoring the basketball this season as they are averaging 106 ppg. Sure, their defense has not been the best, but they should be able to put the clamps down vs. a Thunder team that will be struggling after the starters combined for over 160 minutes last night Rondo is leading the Celtic team with 11 assist a game, getting his team involved. Evan Turner is instant offense off the bench, then they have the veteran Brandon Bass and Tyler Zeller as key reserves in the post. Boston is the #1 rebounding team in the East, and the #1 offensive rebounding team in the NBA overall. Defensively, both teams rank about equal as far as Defensive Rating goes. So I will have to give Boston a huge advantage of being the fresh team with a more efficient offense and also the benefit of playing at home. The Thunder have been held to 90 points or less in 6 of their 8 games this season. Before playing Milwaukee last night, they lost both road games vs. the Eastern Conference by double digits, including a 12 point loss to Toronto when they were on a back-to-back. Let's take Boston tonight as I see the Celtics pulling away in this with the fresher, deeper, and more talented team currently.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Jeff Clement

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +10.5

Los Angeles Lakers(1-6) at New Orleans(3-3): The Lakers are 3-1-1 ATS last 5 games and 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings in New Orleans. The Pelicans are 4-11-1 ATS last 16 games against NBA Pacific teams. Kobe Bryant is finding his rythm as they are coming off a close game last night in Memphis. The Lakers will win this game out right.

Jimmy Boyd

Kent State +14

Despite the fact that the Golden Flashes have managed to win just one game all season, they are worth a look as a 14-point underdog. Kent State has just three losses all season by more than 10-points and two of those came on the road against the likes of Ohio State and Virginia. Just this past week they lost by 10-points at home as a 13-point dog to Toledo, who is currently 5-1 inside the MAC after Tuesday's loss at Northern Illinois.

If Kent State was going to lay down and quit on their season, it would have been last week against Toledo, as their 3-10 defeat at Miami (OH) the previous week had eliminated any hopes of becoming bowl eligible at 6-6. The Golden Flashes are clearly playing for pride and most importantly to avoid going without a win inside conference play.

Even with the possibility of clinching a spot in the MAC Championship Game, it’s going to be hard for the Falcons to get motivated to play a bad team like Kent State. Most importantly, we have seen Bowling Green struggle in this spot this season. The Falcons barely held on to beat Buffalo at home 36-35. Adding to this is the fact that Bowling Green has a big game on deck at Toledo next week, making it that much harder for them to come out focused on the Golden Flashes.

One of the big reasons I like Kent State and the two touchdowns is the Falcons are clearly not a great defensive team. Bowling Green ranks 124th in the country in total defense, giving up an average of 526.9 ypg. Kent State has shown the ability to put up points against bad defenses. They scored 39 just a few weeks back against Army, who is currently ranked 90th in total defense.

It’s also worth noting that Bowling Green could be without one of their top offensive players. Leading rusher Travis Greene is questionable with an ankle injury. Greene has rushed for 644 yards and 8 touchdowns with an impressive 5.0 yards/carry on 128 attempts.

Adding to all of this is a couple of key trends that are heavily in favor of the Golden Flashes covering this spread. Kent State is 8-2 TS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record, while Bowling Green is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record.

Steve Janus

Boston Celtics -5½

The Celtics come in having won back-to-back games at home against the Pacers and on the road against the Bulls to improve to 3-3 on the season. Boston's only losses have come on the road against two of the top teams out west in Dallas and Houston and at home to a red-hot Raptors squad. This Celtics team is better than what people think and I look for them to take it to the Thunder tonight. Boston ranks 4th in the league in pace and 7th in offensive efficiency. They should have no problem dictating the tempo, as they will be playing on a full 3 days of rest, where the Thunder are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and 3rd in 4 days overall.

Key Trends - Oklahoma City is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games, 2-5 in their last 7 when playing on no rest and 0-7 in their last 7 against the East.

Jimmy Boyd

Ball State / UMass Over 60.5

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in tonight's MAC showdown between Ball State and UMass.These two teams are not familiar with one another, as they haven't played since 1988. That's a big advantage for the two offenses and with two poor defenses it should lead to a lot of points. The Minutemen come in averaging 30.8 ppg behind an offensive attack that ranks 6th in the country in passing at 331.2 ypg. Ball State is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61.4% of their attempts on the road and are giving up a ridiculous 259 yards and 5.7 yards/carry on the ground away from home. Add in the Cardinals not exactly being motivated for this contest after a crushing loss to Northern Illinois and UMass' offense should have no problem sustaining drives and putting points on the scoreboard. The other big key here is that the reason the Minutemen are 2-7 with such a potent offense, is they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. UMass is giving up 35.0 points and 458.4 yards per game on the season. They aren't any better against the run (200.6 ypg, 97th) than they are the pass (257.8 ypg, 92nd). Even though Ball State's offense ranks just 102nd with 357.8 ypg, they are going to be able to move the football against the poor UMass defense. The Minutemen have seen their games go OVER the total in 7 of 9 contests this year and all 6 of their games following a loss. The OVER is also 7-2 in Ball State's last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home and 7-2 in their last 9 conference games. We also see a nice system in play. The OVER is 64-29 over the last 10 seasons in a game where you have a total of 56.5 to 63 points with a team that is averaging 400 or more yards/game (UMass) that has accumulated 450 or more total yards in each of their last 4 contests. That's a 69% long-term system.