College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, September 23rd, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
TCU (2 - 1) at SMU (2 - 1) - 9/23/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
SMU is 87-118 ATS (-42.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 1-1 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 2-0 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING (2 - 1) at E MICHIGAN (2 - 1) - 9/23/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
E MICHIGAN is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
E MICHIGAN is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
E MICHIGAN is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
USC (1 - 2) at UTAH (3 - 0) - 9/23/2016, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 1-1 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-1 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wyoming's last 7 games on the road
Wyoming is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Eastern Michigan is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games
Eastern Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
TCU vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
TCU is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
TCU is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games
Southern Methodist is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing TCU
Southern Methodist is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against TCU
SOUTHERN CAL vs. UTAH
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Southern Cal's last 12 games on the road
Southern Cal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing Southern Cal
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
TCU at SMU
TCU: 69-46 ATS off a win against a conference rival
SMU: 5-15 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight non-conference games
Wyoming at E Michigan
Wyoming: 24-8 ATS after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game
E Michigan: 1-9 ATS after a win by 17 or more points
USC at Utah
USC: 55-36 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
Utah: 8-1 UNDER in home lined games
StatFox Super Situations
WYOMING at E MICHIGAN
Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WYOMING) good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after a win by 21 or more points 46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NCAAF Week 4
TCU won nine of its last 10 games with SMU (4-3 vs spread in last seven); Horned Frogs won last four series games by average of 46-17. Mustangs are 2-8 in last 10 games as home underdog; they lost 40-13 at Baylor two weeks ago, its only game this year vs a good team. TCU plays Oklahoma next; they’re 3-4 vs spread when laying 20+ to SMU- this is local rivalry. Frogs are 4-12 vs spread in last 16 games as a road favorite
Eastern Michigan is 2-1 this year after going 7-41 the last four years; EMU (+13) went to Laramie, upset Wyoming 48-29 in LY’s meeting; Eagles had 352 TY at half, lading 38-14 Cowboys allowed 741 passing yards in its two games against I-A teams; they’re favoried on road for first time in three years (3-6 as road fave since 2007). EMU is 6-12 in last 18 games as a home underdog.
USC is 1-2 and switching to freshman QB Darnold, who makes his first start here. Trojans won four of last five games vs Utah, going 1-1 in last two visits here; favorites covered four of last five series games. USC is 2-8 in its last ten games as a road underdog. Utah beat rival BYU 20-19 despite being -2 in turnovers; Utes lost two good players LW, still won easily at San Jose. Utes are 2-6 in last eight games as a home favorite.
Armadillosports.com
USC at Utah
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
When I wrote my column about the 14 coaching changes at FBS programs going into the 2016 campaign, I ranked Southern Cal’s hire of Clay Helton at a nearly last-place No. 13. To date, I haven’t seen anything to deter that notion.
USC (1-2 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) is off to a dreadful start and now has to go on the road on a short week to face Utah on Friday night at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. As of Tuesday, most books had Utah (3-0 SU, ATS) installed as a three-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points. The Trojans were +135 on the money line at most spots (risk $100 to win $135).
USC is off a 27-10 loss at Stanford as a 7.5-point underdog. The 37 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48.5-point total. Max Browne completed 18-of-28 passes for 191 yards, but he was yanked in favor of redshirt freshman Sam Darnold in the second half. Darnold connected on 5-of-7 throws for 45 yards without a touchdown pass and one interception.
Stanford raced out to a 17-3 advantage at intermission behind the play of All-American RB Christian McCaffrey, who finished with 260 all-purpose yards. USC responded with a nine-play, 75-yard drive capped by a one-yard TD run from Ronald Jones to trim the deficit to seven.
However, the Trojans would get no closer. They committed seven of their eight penalties in the first half to stymie otherwise successful drives. Five of those flags were for false starts. Jones and Justin Davis both rushed for 63 yards apiece. JuJu Smith-Schuster, a second-team All-American in 2015, was limited to just three receptions for 34 yards.
For the season, Browne has connected on 55-of-87 passes (63.2%) for 474 yards with a 2/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The true junior who is a former five-star recruit had a pair of TD passes in Week 2 when USC thumped Utah State by a 45-7 count as a 16.5-point home favorite. Darnold also saw playing time against the Aggies and it wasn’t just snaps at garbage time.
Darnold found Deontay Burnett for a 13-yard scoring strike to push the Trojans’ lead to 14-0 over Utah State early in the third quarter. He also had a 15-yard TD pass to Smith-Schuster early in the fourth quarter. For the year, Darnold has completed 14-of-22 attempts (63.6%) for 136 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio. Helton has decided to give Darnold his first career start at Utah.
This is the third time USC has had to travel in a four-week stretch. It took a 52-6 shellacking from top-ranked Alabama in the season opener at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. The 1-2 start has Helton now sporting a 7-6 record as a head coach. In four road underdog spots on Helton’s watch, the Trojans are 0-4 both SU and ATS with double-digit defeats in each situation.
The offense has to find more touches for Smith-Schuster, who has only 11 receptions for 99 yards and two TDs. He had 89 catches for 1,454 yards and 10 TDs last season. The offensive line was touted as one of the best in the country coming into the year, but Justin Davis’s team-high 135 rushing yards have come at a meager 3.6 yards-per-carry average.
The USC offense is averaging only 323.0 yards per game, which ranks No. 114 among FBS teams. The Troajns’ 20.3 points-per-game average ranks No. 109.
Utah has collected wins vs. Southern Utah (24-0), vs. BYU (20-19) and at San Jose State (34-17). Kyle Whittingham’s squad covered the number as 13.5-point road favorites in the win over the Spartans. The 51 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 46-point tally thanks to a 46-yard TD pass for San Jose State with 3:45 remaining in the fourth quarter.
Troy Williams completed 20-of-28 passes for 257 yards with one TD and one interception. Tim Patrick had six receptions for 121 yards and one TD, while Cory Butler-Byrd snared five balls for 66 yards. Zach Moss rushed for 95 yards and one TD on 12 attempts, while Armand Shyne ran for 92 yards and one score on 12 carries. Troy McCormick added 61 rushing yards on just seven totes, including a 16-yard TD scamper that put the Utes ahead to stay at 13-10 early in the second quarter.
Utah’s defense smothered the San Jose State ground attack, limiting the Spartans to 56 rushing yards on 32 carries for a 1.8 YPC average. Junior safety Marcus Williams, the team’s leading returning tackler who had 66 stops and five interceptions on his way to earning first-team All Pac-12 honors in 2015, had six tackles and one interception. Senior DE Hunter Dimick had five tackles and two sacks to bring his career sack total to 18.
Utah’s defense was playing without junior DE Kylie Fitts for the first time against San Jose State. Fitts sustained a season-ending injury in the victory over BYU. He already had four tackles, three tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks through two games. The transfer from UCLA saw his first playing time for the Utes last season when he tallied 41 tackles, seven sacks, one TFL and 10 passes broken up. Also in the injury front, the Utes’ leading returning rusher Joe Williams chose to retire last week. Williams rushed for 477 yards and three TDs in ’15.
Utah currently ranks 13th in the nation in total defense, holding foes to 263.7 yards per game. The Utes are 12th in scoring ‘D,’ giving up only 12.0 PPG.
Williams, the prized juco signee who began his career at Washington, threw three interceptions in the 20-19 win over BYU. The defense picked him up, however, making a stop on the Cougars’ two-point conversion attempt with 18 seconds remaining. Junior LB Sunia Tauteoli was the hero with a pair of interceptions, including a 41-yard pick-six on Taysom Hill in the first half.
For the season, Williams has completed 54-of-86 passes (62.8%) for 723 yards with a 4/4 TD-INT ratio. Patrick has been his favorite target, hauling in 14 receptions for 285 yards and four TDs. McCormick has rushed for a team-best 178 yards and two TDs on 29 carries for a 6.1 YPC average. Moss (6.4 YPC) and Shyne (5.5 YPC) have rushed for 153 and 111 yards, respectively.
Utah is 2-6 in its last eight games as a home favorite, but it is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 outings as single-digit home ‘chalk.’ This is the Pac-12 opener for the Utes, who have a road game at California on deck in Week 5.
When these teams met last year The Coliseum, USC captured a 42-24 win as a 4.5-point home favorite. Jones rushed for 73 yards and one TD, while Smith-Schuster had eight catches for 143 yards and one TD. Cameron Smith, the Pac-12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year and a second-team All Pac-12 selection, had three interceptions for 122 return yards, including a 54-yard pick-six. The ‘under’ had gone 5-1 in the six previous head-to-head meetings, but the 66 combined points soared ‘over’ the 57-point total.
Since Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011, USC has won four of five encounters except for the 2014 game in Salt Lake City, where the Utes won a 24-21 decision as one-point home underdogs.
The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for USC, 1-0 in its lone true road assignment. Meanwhile, Utah has seen the ‘under’ go 2-1, cashing in both of its home contests.
USC won’t have two starters and could be without another one. OG Toa Lobendahn is out for the season with a knee injury, while LB Osa Masina has been suspended for the rest of the year. DT Noah Jefferson is listed as ‘questionable’ with a shoulder injury.
Two starters for Utah, senior CB Dominique Hatfield and WR Tyrone Smith, both missed the San Jose State game with undisclosed injuries and remain ‘questionable’ this week. Hatfield had four interceptions in ’15, while Smith had 18 catches for 193 yards.
Kickoff is scheduled for Fox Sports 1 at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
There are two other games on tap for Friday night. Southern Methodist is poised to host TCU at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of early Wednesday, most books had the Horned Frogs listed as 21-point road favorites with a total of 63.5 points. Gary Patterson’s team is 2-1 SU but winless for our purposes with a 0-3 ATS mark. TCU failed to cover in last week’s 41-20 home win over Iowa State as a 24.5-point home favorite. ISU scored 10 points in the final 6:41 to hit the backdoor cover for its supporters. The ‘over’ improved to 3-0 for the Frogs when the 61 combined points stretched ‘over’ the 60.5-point total thanks to a 30-yard field goal by the Cyclones with 1:29 remaining.
TCU’s new starting QB Kenny Hill, a transfer from Texas A&M who at one point in late September of 2014 was considered the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, has rushed for 166 yards and six TD while averaging 6.1 YPC. Hill, the Dallas Southlake Carroll High School product, has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,035 with a 4/3 TD-INT ratio.
TCU has limped to a 4-12 spread record in its last 16 games as a road favorite.
SMU (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) has wins at North Texas (34-21) and vs. Liberty (29-14). In the Mustangs’ lone loss at Baylor (40-13) in Week 2, the game was tied at 6-6 at halftime. The Bears pulled away to win easily in the second half, but they failed to cover as 34.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Chad Morris’s squad lost its starting QB Matt Davis to a season-ending ACL tear following the season opener. Davis, who had a 16/7 TD-INT ratio last year, threw a pair of TD passes and one interception against the Mean Green. Redshirt freshman Ben Hicks has taken over as the starter, but he’s been intercepted five times compared to two TD passes in his two starts.
SMU is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog on Morris’s watch to date.
In the other Friday game, Wyoming makes a long trip on a short week to take on Eastern Michigan (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) in Ypsilanti at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network. As of early Wednesday, the Eagles were three-point home underdogs, while the total was at 63. During Chris Creighton’s three-year tenure at Eastern Michigan, it has compiled a 3-6 spread record in nine games as a home ‘dog. The Eagles bounced back from a 61-21 loss at Missouri to win 37-19 at Charlotte last weekend as 1.5-point road favorites.
Wyoming (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) is led by junior RB Brian Hill, a second-team All Mtn. West selection last year when he rushed for 1,631 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC. Hill has run for 381 yards and five TDs through the first three games this season. The Cowboys are in their first road ‘chalk’ spot of Craig Bohl’s three-year tenure in this contest.
The following teams are 3-0 ATS: Army, Central Michigan, Louisville, Miami, Ohio State, South Florida, Texas A&M, Toledo, Western Michigan, Ball State, Colorado, SMU, BYU and ULM. Stanford is 2-0 ATS, while Navy, Nebraska and Tulane are 2-0-1 versus the number.
Texas Tech junior QB Patrick Mahomes leads the nation with 1,493 passing yards. Who is second in the country? That would be Cal’s Davis Webb (1,359), a transfer from Texas Tech. Mahomes and Webb are also 1-2 in the nation in TD passes with 14 and 13, respectively. Webb’s favorite target Chad Hansen paces the country in receiving yards with 546.
New Mexico State RB Larry Rose is finally set to make his season debut Saturday at Troy. Rose, the Sun Belt’s Offensive Player of the Year last season when he rushed for 1,651 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 6.9 YPC, has recovering from sports hernia surgery. He also had 30 catches for 283 yards and two TDs in ’15.
Colorado LB Derek McCartney is done for the year with a torn ACL. McCartney had 49 tackles, five sacks, 6.5 TFL’s and one interception last season.
Oregon starting OT Tyrell Crosby is out for the season with an undisclosed injury. The junior had 24 career starts under his belt. The Ducks will also be without speedy WR Devon Allen for the rest of the season.
How fun would it be to drink beers with Jerome from Birmingham from the Finebaum Show? Sign me up.
Pac-12 Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Southern California at Utah
The Trojans head to Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City trying to avoid a complete disaster to start their season. They were abused by Alabama, and pushed around by Stanford last weekend on 'The Farm'. They can keep their season afloat with a win over the 23rd-ranked team in the nation, but it won't be easy. Utah opened as a 1 1/2-point favorite and the line quickly climbed to three. Neither of these teams have been very good against the number lately, with USC 7-20 ATS in their past 27 away from home, and Utah 1-5 ATS in their past six at home. Both teams are also 1-5 ATS in their past six conference tilts. The 'under' might be the play in this one, going 9-3 in USC's past 12 road games and 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 conference battles including last week. The under is 5-1 in Utah's past six home games, and 6-1 in the past seven for the Utes at home against a team with a losing road record.
Big 12 Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Texas Christian at Southern Methodist
TCU heads to Dallas on Friday night looking to build upon last weekend's 41-20 league opener win against Iowa State. For the third consecutive game, however, they failed to cover while the 'over' cashed for a third straight game. TCU's offense has been hot, scoring at least 38 points in each of their three games, while allowing 34.0 points per game (PPG). SMU picked up a cover for a third straight game last weekend against FCS Liberty, but it took an improbable pick-six in the final minute to make it happen. Still, they're 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS with the 'under' hitting in each of their three games. SMU's offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders, but they could fare well against a TCU defense which has struggled in each of their three games, including allowing 20 to an awful Iowa State team a week ago.
NCAAF Game of the Day: USC at Utah
By Covers.com
USC Trojans at Utah Utes (-3, 46.5)
USC is off to its worst start since 2001 and its upcoming schedule won't get any easier as the Trojans travel to face No. 23 Utah in a Pac-12 game Friday night. USC is coming off a 27-10 loss Saturday at No. 6 Stanford, which dropped its record to 1-2 for the first time since Pete Carroll's first season with the Trojans 15 years ago, and coach Clay Helton responded by replacing starting quarterback Max Browne, a junior, with freshman Sam Darnold.
The Utes won't have any pity for USC after the Trojans upset them 42-24 last season when they came to Los Angeles ranked No. 7, spoiling a 6-0 start. That game was the debut of Helton, who was made the permanent coach later in the season but has gone 1-4 since. Utah is led by quarterback Troy Williams, an L.A.-area product who is coming off a 20-for-28 performance last weekend against San Jose State, finishing with 257 yards and a touchdown. The Utes didn't throw a touchdown pass until their third game last season, but already have four in 2016 - all to senior wide receiver Tim Patrick.
LINE HISTORY: Utah opened this game favored by a point and a half, but bettors have moved that number all the way to Utes -3. The total opened at 46.5 and has yet to move off of that number. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
USC - CB J. Plattenburg (probable Friday, concussion), TE T. Petite (probable Friday, thigh), DT M. Dorton (questionable Friday, hip), TE T. McNamara (questionable Friday, foot), C K. Rodgers (questionable Friday, hamstring), DT N. Jefferson (questionable Friday, shoulder), QB M. Fink (questionable Friday, ankle), LB Q. Powell (questionable friday, illness).
Utah- DB D. Hatfield (questionable Friday, leg), T S. Tevi (questionable Friday, back), DE K. Fitts (out Friday, foot).
WEATHER REPORT: It could be a messy night in Salt Lake City. There is a 100 perent of rain at kickoff with temperatures in the high 40's. There will also be a six to seven mile per hour wind blowing towards the northeast corner of the stadium.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "USC returned 10 offensive starters this season. The only offensive starter they lost from last year's squad was QB Cody Kessler who threw for 3,536 yards with a 29/7 touchdown/interception ratio. It turns out that one lost starter was tough to replace as the Trojans passing game has struggled this season, averaging just 5.6 yards per pass (versus opponents that have allowed 6.6 ypp). USC will now be facing a strong Utah pass defense that has allowed just 4.9 yards per pass this season (versus opponent that average 5.6 ypp)." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We had Utah as a -1.5 point favorite earlier this week and it has been bet all the way to Utah -3.5 with over 70 percent of the action on Utah to cover." - Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag.
ABOUT USC (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Adoree' Jackson is one of the most versatile and entertaining players in Division I and may need to take over this game to get the Trojans back on track. He's a three-year starter at cornerback and also plays wide receiver and returns punt and kickoffs, putting him in the rare position of scoring touchdowns on a reception, interception return, punt and kickoff return during his career. Jackson, who limited Alabama sophomore wide receiver Calvin Ridley to two catches for nine yards in the season opener earlier this month, figures to draw the task of covering Patrick.
ABOUT UTAH (3-0, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): The Utes delivered 10 sacks against San Jose and look to get after Darnold against one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country. Hunter Dimick leads the way with three sacks for Utah and brings plenty of experience, starting 23 games in his college career. Kylie Fitts was expected to be a key part of the defensive line, but suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago, increasing the role of Filipo Mokofisi, who move from defensive tackle to Fitts' former spot at defensive end last week and produced two sacks.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a ATS win.
* Under is 9-3 in USC's last 12 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Utah's last six home games.
CONSENSUS: Bettors are strongly behind the home team in this Pac-12 showdown, with 67 percetn of wagers backing Utah. As for the total, bettors are siding with over, with 59 percent of wagers on it.