ROB VINCILETTI
Loyola-Chicago-1½
On Sunday the NCAAB Comp Play is on Loyola Chicago at 4:00 eastern. Loyola is ranked 67 in the RPI Scale and has won 4 of 5 vs teams ranked 100 to 200 like Valparaiso. On the road they are 6-3 this season and they have won 8 of 11 vs winning teams, In games off a win vs conference teams they are 15-5 to the spread and in January they are 4-1. Valparaiso is 0-3 vs teams ranked 50 to 100 and 0-6 as a dog this year, losing 3 of 4 after scoring 60 or less. Look for Loyola to take this one today. On Championship Sunday the NFL Playoff total of the year headlines along with a rare 6* Top play side. In the NBA a Double Perfect 5* leads the hoops card. Championship Sunday plays 7-1 the last 4 years. For the NCAAB Free pick. Play on Loyola Chicago. RV- GC Sports
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LARRY NESS
My 1* Free Play is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST).
Both teams have been scuffling of late. The Pacers come in off their second straight loss in a 99-86 setback at the Lakers on Friday, while the Spurs went just 1-2 on their three-game swing, finishing with an 86-83 setback at Toronto on Friday.
If recent history is any precedence though, then Indiana has to be liking its chances tonight, because when these teams met back on October 29th it was the Pacers that held on for the 97-94 home victory.
Indiana averages 106.5 PPG and it concedes 105.7. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 13.9 points, 6.5 boards and 2.24 blocks per game, while Myles Turner adds 13.9 points and 6.5 boards per game. Oladipo was a bright spot in the loss to LA with 25 points.
San Antonio averages 100.9 PPG and it concedes 97.6. Kawhi Leonard is once again out with injury, meaning that the onus falls onto big man LaMarcus Aldridge to carry the load. Aldridge so far averages a team leading 22.6 points and 8.7 boards per game.
I’ll point out that Indiana has done well in this spot for bettors this year, going 7-5 ATS after a loss by ten points or more and note that it’s 17-8 ATS in its last 25 against good defensive teams which allow 98 points or less per outing, while San Antonio has in fact struggled in this position by going only 2-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less and just 4-5 ATS when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.
The Spurs are 19-2 at home this year, but they’re dealing with significant injuries. The Pacers have no excuses tonight after a couple of lacklustre performances. I think the table is set for a very competitive battle and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the straight up outright upset (although obviously it wouldn’t shock me), I’ll in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in what should be a nail-biter.
Good luck…Larry
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MARC LAWRENCE
Play - Jaguars-Patriots UNDER (Game 311).
Edges - Jaguars: 3-8 UNDER away following SU underdog win in games in which the Over/Under total is 42 or more points… Patriots: 3-5 UNDER home following a SUATS home win… With this game featuring a matchup of top 5 ranked scoring defenses, and both teams off ’Over’ totals in their last games, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER total. Thank you and good luck as always.
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TEDDY COVERS
Take the New England Patriots (#312)
There’s plenty of buzz on the Jacksonville Jaguars here in Las Vegas. I’ve been hearing all week about how well the Jaguars match up with the Patriots and how the warm weather in Foxboro (gametime temperatures in the 40’s) is a major boost for Jacksonville’s chances. Throw in a mysterious Tom Brady hand/wrist injury that kept him out of practice on Thursday and all of a sudden, we’re seeing New England priced in the -7 range at home.
First and foremost; make no mistake about it: Tom Brady is going to play on Sunday. According to the Boston Globe’s Jim McBride, the Hall of Fame QB “didn’t seem hampered in any way” in the part of Wednesday’s practice that reporters were allowed to watch. And Brady consistently misses at least one day of regular practice during the regular season to rest his aging body. The Brady media buzz is just that – media buzz, yet the markets have made a significant adjustment in favor of the road underdog over the past 24 hours.
This isn’t new or different. ‘Sharp’ money has been fading the Patriots, week after week, for the better part of the last two years. New England’s statistical profile is anything BUT elite, particularly on the defensive side of the football, where they rank as low as #31 in the NFL based on highly influential advanced metric stats.
Of course these stats are lying. If you’ve watched the Patriots over the past three months, you know that their September defensive shortcomings did not carry over to the final ¾ of the season. In their last 13 games – since their Week 4 loss to the Panthers – the Pats have allowed a grand total of 182 points, an average of just 14 points per game. Only two of their last 13 opponents have produced more than 17 points against this defense. Yet the stats that wiseguys use say the Pats defense is due for a major correction.
I’m not buying that argument; nor should you. What New England has accomplished ATS over the past two years can only be described as ‘remarkable’. The Pats statistical profile screams ‘bet-against’ , so the sharp $$ fades Brady and Belichick week after week after week. The end result? New England has been the SINGLE BEST pointspread team in the NFL for the last two years, despite their ‘public’ nature as five time Super Bowl champs.
The results don’t lie. New England went an NFL best 16-3 ATS in 2017 on their way to the Super Bowl title, including a 9-1 ATS mark in their last ten games and a 3-0 ATS mark in the playoffs. This year, New England is an NFL best 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games since their 3-3 ATS start, once again ranked as the #1 pointspread team in football. And yet the $$ continues to pour in AGAINST the Pats.
New England is as fresh as any team can be at this stage of the campaign. Over the past month, the Pats have faced the Bills and Jets at home, both easy blowouts, then had a bye week, then another easy blowout over Tennessee last week, also at home. That’s certainly not the case for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’ve been in intense, down to the wire games in each of the last four weeks; three of them on the highway. No surprise here if the Jags run out of steam at some point in this one.
Last, but not least, let’s not forget about those supposed matchup edges that the Jags have against the Patriots. Jacksonville does have a solid pass rush from their front four and a couple of elite cornerbacks. What they DON’T have is the ability to get those cornerbacks into matchups against the Patriots. Rob Gronkowski – the tight end – led the team with 69 catches this season. RB’s James White, Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead all had 30+ catches out of the backfield. Tom Brady doesn’t have to test Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye here – he can simply find other weapons, something no QB in the NFL does better than him.
The Patriots have been in six straight AFC title games, as experienced as it gets for settings like this one. Blake Bortles and company are about to find out that New England ain’t Pittsburgh…. Take the Patriots.
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BOBBY CONN
1* Free Play on Jaguars/Patriots under 44½ -110
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BOBBY CONN
1* Free Play on Jaguars/Patriots under 44½ -110
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DOUG UPSTONE
NFL | Jan 21, 2018
Jaguars vs. Patriots
UNDER 45½
The total opened at 47, immediately slipped to 46 or 45.5 and has mostly stayed there. Both offenses average more than 26 PPG and the defenses concede under 19 points. Bortles play will also have direct impact on total. Let's say he has normal game (whatever that is), which leads me to saying the UNDER is the right call, along with New England.
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CHIP CHIRIMBES
Jaguars/Patriots UNDER
This has become a matter of the effectiveness of Tom Brady. Can he, will he, well with Belichick behind the scenes we will just have to wait. But, the fact that Brady hasn't actually taken a snap or thrown a pass might affect his timing. Aside form all the Jacksonville would rather see the ball in Fournette's hands then Bortles so expect plenty of time grinding runs from the Jaguars and a defense to keep the Patriots honest. Take the UNDER!
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R&R TOTALS
R&R Totals FREE NHL Over-Under Sunday 1-21-18
UNDER 5 1/2 Anaheim/San Jose
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SCOTT SPREITZER
Northern Iowa PK
I'm recommending a play on Northern Iowa on Sunday. Northern Iowa finally has put together two wins in a row after coming back from a 16-point deficit before winning by 14 against Drake on Tuesday. Former starter, Bennett Koch, came off the bench to spark the Panthers and finished with 19 points and Tywhon Pickford added 16 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. The Panthers are shooting 48.5 percent their last two games and appear to have new life since coach Ben Jacobson replaced Koch with freshman Austin Phyfe in the starting lineup. Phyfe then scored a career-high 20 points against Valparaiso. Southern Illinois is basically down to an eight-man rotation due to injuries and Northern Iowa looks to avenge a 56-53 loss to the Salukis on Dec. 28 when the Panthers admittedly came out flat for that game. The Salukis come off a 79-65 loss at Loyola-Chicago for their third loss in four games and they are 0-4-2 ATS their last six games. I'm recommending a play on Northern Iowa on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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JESSE SCHULE
NCAA-B | Jan 21, 2018
Canisius vs. Iona
OVER 149
The top two teams in the MAAC will meet for the second time this season when Canisius visits Iona this afternoon. The Golden Griffins won the first meeting at home by a score of 85-78. We might expect another high scoring game here in the rematch, as both these teams can score their fair share of points. The total for this game is a few points lower than it was in Iona's last game, and here is what I said prior to their win over Monmouth: "The Iona Gaels are sitting in first place in the MAAC with record of 5-1 within the conference. They have won four straight home games, but their last road game was an 85-78 loss to Canisius. They will visit Monmouth tonight, and the Hawks have lost four of their last five. All four losses came on the road though, while the one win was a 77-66 victory at home over Manhattan. While Monmouth is just 3-2 at home, they have scored a ton of points in those games. The Hawks have averaged over 83 points on better than 50 percent shooting at home. They have also allowed more than 80 points per game on their home floor. While these teams have failed to reach the total in three of the last four meetings, the total for tonight's game is far lower than it was in any of those contests. All four of those games saw at least 150 total points scored. Two of the last three games at Monmouth have seen more than 155 combined points scored. The Gaels have gone over in 10 of their last 12 road games, while the Hawks have gone over in five straight at home." History would suggest that another high scoring game is in the works, and four of the last five head to head meetings in this series have gone over.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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JESSE SCHULE
NCAA-B | Jan 21, 2018
Canisius vs. Iona
OVER 149
The top two teams in the MAAC will meet for the second time this season when Canisius visits Iona this afternoon. The Golden Griffins won the first meeting at home by a score of 85-78. We might expect another high scoring game here in the rematch, as both these teams can score their fair share of points. The total for this game is a few points lower than it was in Iona's last game, and here is what I said prior to their win over Monmouth: "The Iona Gaels are sitting in first place in the MAAC with record of 5-1 within the conference. They have won four straight home games, but their last road game was an 85-78 loss to Canisius. They will visit Monmouth tonight, and the Hawks have lost four of their last five. All four losses came on the road though, while the one win was a 77-66 victory at home over Manhattan. While Monmouth is just 3-2 at home, they have scored a ton of points in those games. The Hawks have averaged over 83 points on better than 50 percent shooting at home. They have also allowed more than 80 points per game on their home floor. While these teams have failed to reach the total in three of the last four meetings, the total for tonight's game is far lower than it was in any of those contests. All four of those games saw at least 150 total points scored. Two of the last three games at Monmouth have seen more than 155 combined points scored. The Gaels have gone over in 10 of their last 12 road games, while the Hawks have gone over in five straight at home." History would suggest that another high scoring game is in the works, and four of the last five head to head meetings in this series have gone over.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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TOMMY BRUNSON
Both Championship Games a season ago landed Over the total, and I sure as hell like this AFC Championship Game between Jacksonville and New England to topple the total when it is all said and done.
All the talk has been how good Jacksonville's defense is, but I don't know if you know this, the Jaguars allowed 469 yards of total offense last week in their upset win at Pittsburgh, and they also allowed 42-points to be scored on them, as Ben Roethlisberger threw for 5 touchdown passes!
That Over marked the 4th time in Jacksonville's last 6 games that they have landed Over the total. They have also played Over the total in 3 of their last 4 road games this season. The Jaguars have been able to land Over the posted price thanks to a 30-points or better output in 5 of their last 7 games, and while posting 30 against a New England team that hasn't allowed that many since way back in October, I also don't feel the Jags will get shutout here.
New England slipped Over the total in last week's playoff game against Tennessee by a half-point, as they have played 2 of their last 3 Over the posted price. For the season, 6 of their 9 games played at home have made their way Over the posted price.
The Patriots have been able to score 26 points or better in 7 of their last 9 games, including each of their last 4. Expect Tom Brady to get the offense going, and expect this title game - the 7th straight for the Pats! - to end up playing Over the total, the same way last year's game played at Gillette Stadium did.
Jags-Pats Over
3* JACKSONVILLE-NEW ENGLAND OVER
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JOEY JUICE
Miami comes into this game desperate for a win, and they have nothing short of a "lock down" defense that is limiting their opponents to under 39% shooting, thus making them one of the best stop units in the country.
Meanwhile, NC state is anything but a bunch of sharp shooters as they are only 32.7% as a team from behind the arc.
That is in sharp contrast to a Hurricane offense that is shooting 47% from the field.
The Hurricanes have been solid for gamblers when they are favored on the road, they are 4-1 last 5 as a road favorite.
Aside from Miami being more talented, and more athletic, they are simply just better on both ends of the court.
UM gets the easy cover in this one.
4* MIAMI
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CHRIS JORDAN
My free winner for Championship Sunday is on the Manhattan Jaspers against the St. Peter's Peacocks, as I like the road underdog in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference clash inside the Yanitelli Center in Jersey City.
Manhattan is looking to rebound after a 68-59 loss to Canisius on Friday, a setback that dropped the Jaspers to 9-10 overall and 4-3 in conference play.
Manhattan, which has covered 10 of the last 13 meetings with the Peacocks, comes into this one having won four of its previous seven thanks to its defensive effort. The Jaspers, who are giving up 69.3 points this season, have allowed 68.2 over their last five games.
Conversely, the Peacocks (8-10, 2-5) have allowed four more than they're used to lately, as they've let opponents put up an average 72.4 in their last five games.
St. Peter's, just 5-8 ATS on the year, are mired in a three-game skid after losing at home Thursday, 88-84 to Rider. Stretching back to Dec. 28, the Peacocks have lost five of their last seven games.
Take the road pup here, as the Jaspers aim for the outright win.
2* MANHATTAN
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