Free Picks for Tuesday, May 16th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
New York vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -170
If you read this space regularly, you know I tend to avoid heavy baseball chalk like it’s a diseased wager. But I think that’s the only right way to play tonight’s game between the Mets and Diamondbacks.
The Mets are a mangled train wreck right now. The injuries have ravaged the formerly dominant starting pitching, the bullpen is beat up and worn out, and I have to serious question the chemistry own this baseball team right now.
Tonight’s game is a pitching mismatch on paper. Tommy Milone is now starting for the Mets after being simply dumped by the Twins. Milone occasionally manages a good start, but his stuff is below big league average and the lefty can really get lit up if he’s not locating well. Milone rarely beats himself with free passes, but he’s a very hittable southpaw.
Zack Greinke is in the process of putting his disappointing 2016 campaign ion the rear view mirror. Greinke is looking more like the pitcher who was so sensational in 2015 for the Dodgers.
The Mets are about as fade worthy as it gets right now. This fact hasn’t been lost on the oddsmakers but the view from here is that full compensation for just how awful this team is currently is still not in the price. It’s not like the Diamondbacks are the nuts, but they’re in far better condition than the Mets at this point, and the Snakes have awn enormous edge one the mound tonight with Greinke vs. Milone.
No question it’s a pretty steep impost, but the only way I can play this one is to be on Arizona.
Mike Lundin
Orioles vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -123
The Baltimore are coming off four straight losses, and I don't like their chances of ending their losing streak when they visit the Detroit Tigers Tuesday night.
Detroit hands the ball to left-hander Matthew Boyd (2-3, 3.89 ERA). He's been dominant in four starts home at Comerica Park this season, allowing just six runs on 13 hits and seven walks through 20 2/3 innings of work, holding opponents to a .178 batting average. The Orioles turn to a left-hander of their own in Wade Miley (1-1, 2.45 ERA). Miley may not have surrendered a lot of runs, but he's struggled with his control all season and he's issued a total of 15 walks in 17 2/3 innings over his last four outings.
The Tigers will play their first home game in almost two weeks and are a solid 7-1 in their last eight home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Both teams had Monday off and Detroit is 14-3 in its last 17 games following an off day while the Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games following an off day.
Darryl Tucholski
Spurs vs. Warriors
Play: Spurs +13½
Losing Kawhi Leonard may have sealed the fate for the Spurs, fortunately - it will provide lines like this in the near future. The Spurs showed their ability to generate points in the paint in game 1, to the tune of 56. Tensions are running high, the Warriors should win - but not by a double digit margin.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees vs. Royals
Play: Royals +106
Edges - Royals: Hammel 5-0 last five home team starts during May… Yankees: Sabathia 2-5 last seven overall away teams starts, and 1-3 last four team starts during May. With Sabathia sporting a 3.27 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP this season, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Dustin Hawkins
Rays vs. Indians
Play: Rays +157
Cleveland is only 11-16 against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. The Indians are 59-55 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
Teddy Davis
Orioles vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -123
Tigers are worth a look here tonight vs the Orioles. The O's has hit a little slump here getting swept in a 4 game series by the Royals. It won't get any better as they only average 4 runs against left handers.
Boyd has been very strong this season with a 3.89 ERA, but even better at home where he as a 2.61 ERA. I also think Miley is kind of a fraud here as his recent form ERA looks good with it being 3.37 but his WHIP suggests he has been very lucky at 2.3.
Bryan Leonard
Nationals vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates +156
While it's obvious that the Nationals win the starting pitcher battle, by 25% according to our numbers. It isn't enough of an advantage to warrant this road favorite price. Pittsburgh actually hits 11% better at home than league average and 10% better than the Nats score on the road. The other numbers which are key are virtually a wash. Not to mention that Washington bullpen which has been a dumpster fire.
Frank Jordan
San Antonio vs. Golden State
Play: Golden State -14
San Antonio had it all working in the first half and went into the Locke room with a 62-42 lead. The second half was going well until Leonard re-injured his left ankle and Golden State took over 71-49 for the two-point win. San Antonio will most likely be without Leonard and although they won game six without him on the road over Houston, Golden State showed what they could do to the Spurs without Leonard. Look for Golden State to play like play like they did in the second half all as the Spurs try to pound it inside to Aldridge to wear down the Warriors, but Golden State will be strong from three and three beats two every time. Look for Curry, Thompson and Durant to combine for 80 and Green to chip in another 15 as the Warriors take a 2-0 series lead.
Will Rogers
Houston vs. Miami
Pick: Houston
The set-up: The Astros opened this four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Miami Marlins by taking Monday's contest, 7-2. Yuli Gurriel led the way with a grand slam, Houston's third in May, which sets a franchise record for one month. The 27-12 Astros own MLB's best record, are now 13-6 on the road and have won each of their three interleague games. Meanwhile, the Marlins are headed in the opposite direction. After opening the season at 10-8, the Marlins have gone 4-15 since, and have not won consecutive games since April 22-23. Houston owns an eight-game lead in the AL West, while Miami occupies the basement in the NL East at 14-23. The Marlins are already 10 games back of the Nationals in the division and the team's winning percentage of .378 is better than only San Diego, which is 15-25 (.375).
The pitching matchup: Dallas Keuchel (6-0 & 1.69 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Tom Koehler (1-1 & 5.60 ERA) for Miami. Keuchel will try to become MLB's first seven-game winner, after he beat the Yankees 3-2 last Thursday. It was his shortest outing of the year (six innings) but he tied a season high with nine strikeouts and walked only one. He is tied for the MLB lead in innings pitched (58 2/3) and his ERA is third overall among qualified hurlers. The 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner allowed two unearned runs over seven innings in his only previous start against Miami, a game in which he took the loss. Koehler has finished as many as six innings only twice in his first seven starts of 2017 and has fallen shy of that mark three straight times, including a no-decision against St. Louis on Wednesday in which he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings. He threw a season-high 99 pitches in that outing but for the first time in 2017, didn't allow a HR. He has won his only prior start against the Astros, although his ERA in that game was 5.40!
The pick: Houston is 15 games over .500 for the first time since the end of the 2005 season (89-73) and Keuchel has regained his 2015 Cy Young form. As noted above, the Marlins are in a 4-15 funk which includes a 1-6 mark on their current homestand. Throw in that Miami is 8-20 in interleague play since the beginning of 2016 and what's NOT to like about the Astros.
Jim Feist
Ducks at Predators
Pick: Under
Anaheim tied the series up the last game but only had 22 shots on goal despite having to come back from a 2-0 early deficit. The Ducks are a defensive-first team, #3 in goals allowed, #4 in penalty killing. The Under is 16-6-5 in the Ducks last 27 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Nashville is off a poor defensive game but is a strong defensive team all around. Nashville is on a 15-6-7 run under the total, 8-1-2 under at home. And the Under is 2-0-3 in the last 5 meetings in Nashville.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego
Hunter Renfroe had a game-winning two-run HR in the bottom of the 10th inning in San Diego's 6-5 victory over Milwaukee on Monday night. Renfroe had a career-best four RBI in Monday's victory but it marked just San Diego's third win in the past 12 games. The Padres will continue their four-game home series with the Brewers tonight with MLB's worst record (15-25, .375). As for Milwaukee, the Brewers appeared on their way to their seventh victory in eight games when recently recalled infielder Eric Sogard homered in the top of the10th but Renfroe's blast ended those hopes. Milwaukee is 21-18, 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Cards in the NL Central.
Tuesday's pitching matchup features Jimmy Nelson (1-2, 3.99 ERA) for the Brewers and Clayton Richard (2-4, 4.34 ERA) for the Padres. Nelson hasn't won since April 13 but he did put together a strong outing in his last start, matching his season high of eight strikeouts and allowing just one unearned run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings against the Red Sox last Thursday (he settled a for a no-decision in Bostons' 4-1 win). Nelson is 1-3 with a 3.80 ERA in four career starts against the Padres.
Richard is winless in each of his last four starts but is also coming off a solid performance. He gave up one run on five hits in seven innings against Texas on Thursday before the bullpen lost the lead and the game in the ninth inning. Richard is 3-3 with a 5.04 ERA in 14 career appearances (eight starts / teams are 4-4) against the Brewers.
The Brewers have played much better than the Padres so far in 2017 but let's remember that Milwaukee was just 32-49 on the road in 2016. The Padres have been at least competitive here at home (8-9, compared to 7-16 on the road) and last night's walk-off win should be a momentum booster. Also, be aware that Nelson has struggled quite a bit at Petco Park, losing both of his previous starts there, while posting an 8.00 ERA. Back the Padres to make it two in a row!
Carmine Bianco
Milwaukee at San Diego
Play: Milwaukee +106
Milwaukee dropped a 6-5 decision with the bullpen giving up a 5-4 lead in the 10th and they'll look to get back into the win column here today. They've won 6 of their past 8 and Eric Thames who sat out last night's game should be back in the line up to face Padres pitcher Clayton Richards 2-4 4.34 and 3-3 lifetime against the Brewers. Jimmy Nelson 1-2, 3.99 goes for the Brewers and he looks to have turned the corner his last couple of starts allowed no earned runs in 9.2 innings. Lean on the Brewers plus money here to get the win.
Buster Sports
Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -103
The Boston Red Sox come to St.Louis to start a 2 game series against the SMOKING HOT Cardinals. St. Louis has won 8 out of 9 and just won their series on the weekend against the hated Cubs. The starting pitchers for tonight are for the Red Sox LH Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1, 2.80 ERA) and he faces the Cardinals RH Lance Lynn (4-1, 2.75 ERA) Both these guys have been very good to start the season. We are getting some great value with Lynn tonight as he has been almost lights out at home this year with a 1.47 ERA and with a WHIP of 0.982. As for Rodriguez he has pitched well all year but if he can be beat, it is on the road where he has a smart 3.13 ERA and took his lone defeat of the year. Our play here is going with the hot team that are getting unbelievable value at home. We had St. Louis at 130 tonight and we are getting to lay a measly 103 at the time of this writing. Backing our selection is the fact that the Red Sox are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the fact that the Cardinals are 5-0 in Lynn's last 5 starts.
Oskeim Sports
Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -135
Atlanta southpaw Jaime Garcia is coming off an outing wherein he yielded four runs on six hits and five walks over six innings against the Astros. The 30-year-old is having a terrible inaugural campaign with the Braves, posting a 4.33 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 5.04 xFIP and 5.39 SIERA in five starts (35.1 IP).
Garcia also owns a woefully inadequate 5.35 K/9 rate and an alarming 4.58 BB/9 rate. And, believe it or not, regression remains a distinct possibility in light of Garcia's unsustainable .255 BABIP (career .300 BABIP).
Garcia's career 27.7% hard contact rate stands at 31.6% in 2017, while his career 56.1% ground ball rate is currently 47.8% through six starts. Meanwhile, Toronto right-hander Marco Estrada has been one of the best pitchers in the Blue Jays' rotation since 2015.
The 33-year-old toes the rubber with a 3.12 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.42 FIP and 3.58 SIERA in eight starts (49.0 IP). Estrada possesses elite control (career 2.67 BB/9) and continues to miss a lot of bats for the second consecutive season (8.44 K/9 in 2016; 9.73 K/9 in 2017).
Estrada's success is predicated, in part, on outstanding contact suppression skills. To date, Estrada boasts a 25.0% hard contact rate this season. The veteran hurler has been nearly unhittable at home, posting a 0.95 ERA and 2.69 FIP, together with a 29.9% strikeout rate and a 15.6% hard contact rate.
Let's also note that the Blue Jays are 4-0 in Estrada's last four starts against National League East foes.