Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 14

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St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins
Pick: St. Louis Rams
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St. Louis has won 3 of 4 games under new coach Jeff Fisher, who is one of the best in the game. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and the defense is much improved, allowing 13 and 3 points the last two games. They've also had extra time to prepare after a win over Arizona, 17-3, on Thursday. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They take on a weak Miami offense and a suspect secondary ranked 26th. And the Dolphins are 22-50-1 ATS in their last 73 home games! Play the Rams.

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Nick ParsonsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Patriots at Seahawks
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We will go against the public and take the OVER in this matchup. The Seattle D has made a name for themselves, especially at home with the extremely loud home advantage, a tough run D and the twin towers at CB, both over 6'3 inches, however New England, possibly with their two tight end set back in full operation with Aaron Hernandez activated, are just the team to match up with this stingy Seattle defensive unit. New England is averaging 33 pts per game, and seemingly get stronger as the game progresses. The new fast paced offensive gameplay takes advantage of three different NE runningbacks and is averaging 165 yards rushing per game on the ground to go along with 274 through the air. Aside from the 20-18 loss at home to Arizona thanks to a missed FG as time expired, the Pats have put up at least 30 points in each game, including 52 at Buffalo. The New England defense has also given up at least three touchdowns in each of the last three games, so while we may see a quick lead by Tom Brady and co, the defense may give points back to the Seattle squad that is only averaging 17 points per game. If Seattle can keep up an average output or better we will see this one creep over the number.

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Kansas City +4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The line has been pushed up a bit with Brady Quinn getting the start. Quinn has never been very good in the NFL. He's been nothing but a conservative, checkdown type of quarterback. But in a matchup where points are going to be hard to come by, Quinn is exactly the type of quarterback the Chiefs need.
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Kansas City has outgained its opponents by 415 yards. They've won the time of possession in all but one of their games. This is impressive considering the Chiefs have played a number of strong offenses and quarterbacks in going up against Atlanta, New Orleans, Baltimore and San Diego.
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So why are the Chiefs a miserable 1-4? They are a staggering minus 15 in turnover ratio. Matt Cassel was a big reason for that with 13 turnovers, including a terrible goal line fumble last week that probably cost the Chiefs a straight-up win against Baltimore.
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Tampa Bay is 1-3. They are more disciplined and better coached than last season under first-year taskmaster Greg Schiano. But the Buccaneers don't have the Chiefs' talent having lost their best offensive lineman, Darvin Joseph, and one of their best defensive players, end Adrian Clayborn, for the season. The Buccaneers have been outgained in every one of their games. If it weren't for a plus 3 turnover edge they likely wouldn't have covered a game all season.
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The Bucs are going to be as conservative as the Chiefs with their erratic quarterback Josh Freeman. There is going to be a lot of running and the Chiefs hold a huge edge with Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs rank No. 2 in rushing averaging 180.8 yards per game on the ground. Charles is first in the league in rushing and total yards from scrimmage. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and looks to be 100 percent from last year's season-ending knee injury.
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Tampa Bay ranks 27th in yards given up and is 30th in total offense. They don't have the skill position talent Kansas City does.
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The Chiefs are better defensively than they've shown. Their offense has put their defense in tough holes due to frequent turnovers. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are one of the better duo pass rushers in the NFL. The underrated Houston has 13 1/2 sacks going back to Game 13 of last year. No player has more sacks during this time frame.

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Kansas City +4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are going right back to the Chiefs after they won as out Game of the Month last week. If KC could cut down on all the damn turnovers, they would be a pretty good team! Despite bad turnovers on drives against a solid Ravens team last Sunday, Kansas City STILL almost won the game outright. We are fine with Brady Quinn at the helm and have heard good things about him running the offense, so not concerned about the swap at QB. With 338 yards of offense, the Chiefs could only put up SIX TOTAL POINTS. Even with the TOs we think the Chiefs are the right side, so if they can finally hold onto the ball the KC offense should score some points on Tampa Bay and easily cover with the 4 points.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
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Arizona without their two top rushers makes them one dimensional which is always dangerous.While Buffalo did get crushed versus power houses New England and San Francisco those games did look closer than the scores reflected.Take Buffalo to cover the 4 as your freeplay winner because since 1992 they are 17-7 versus the Nfc West Division opponents.

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HOUSTON -3½ -103 over Green Bay
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If you’re waiting for the Packers to get back to their 15-1 form from a year ago, don’t hold your breath. Was blowing a 21-3 to the inexperienced Colts just a fluke or a sign of things to come? We’re thinking the latter. Green Bay appears confused. They’ve lost their identity. The coach seems unsure. The offensive line is troubled. There is no running game to speak of and the secondary can’t seem to cover people. All of that does not bode well when playing the current odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.
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The Texans are for real. They have not allowed more than two scores to any opposing quarterback and after five games, no running back has scored a rushing touchdown. Better yet, there have only been two touchdowns given up to any wide receivers and none of them had more than 50 receiving yards in Houston. They are strong throughout and they now get a national stage to flaunt their stuff for a home audience. The Packers are still a public team. Oddsmakers know that and the line reflects it. This is a cheap price for a superior team facing a team that has more reputation than skill.
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Buffalo +4½ -102 over ARIZONA
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The Bills have been bad. Brutally bad. 97-31 bad over their past two games. But those two contests took place against the Patriots and 49ers, two of the best teams in football. The best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping off. Buy low we always preach. As we venture through October, things typically start to stabilize.
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Arizona has had some favorable bounces. Three of their four wins have been by three or less points, including one in overtime. As a favorite, they are high risk with an abysmal running game that ranks 31st in the league (63 yds. per game) and an inept passing game. Much can be attributed to Arizona’s putrid offensive line that has its quarterbacks being batted around like piñatas. That should inspire Buffalo’s defense, a unit that has come under severe scrutiny and criticism. Against this weak Cardinals’ offensive line, the Bills have an opportunity to silence said critics. Buffalo wisely chose to stay out west after playing at San Francisco. A confining week away allows the Bills to avoid dealing with home fans and media while allowing the coaching staff to fix some things. Definite upset possibility.
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Indianapolis +3 +108 over N.Y. JETS
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Did you hear the one about the Jets being favored? Monday’s semi-respectful loss to the Texans has allowed New York to be lined up this way but the multitude of issues remains and requiring them to win, let alone by a margin, has to be ill advised. The Jets best offensive play of the first half On Monday was when Sanchez was stripped of the ball and newly acquired Lex Hilliard picked up the fumble and ran about four times longer than Shonn Greene’s average carry. Coach Rex Ryan is beginning to cave on the quarterback situation. Having Mark Sanchez is bad enough. Having Sanchez without viable playmakers is insurmountable. No matter what you see or hear, Tim Tebow would be worse.
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The Colts are feeling good about themselves after climbing a mountain to defeat the Packers. Andrew Luck has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. The Colts will take to the road for first time since week one and are much more prepared to do so.  Give us the superior quarterback, the inspired team and a few points to go with it and we’ll gladly take a position.

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CLEVELAND +2 -105 over Cincinnati
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The strain of losing is no fun but the Browns have been in every game this year outside of week one loss against Cincinnati. They were in that game for the first half. The difference this time is the venue and the fact that all the 0-5 Browns’ rookies are a month more experienced. Brandon Weeden lends hope as a NFL calibre pivot, something that’s been absent in Cleveland for years.  He’s thrown in around 300 yards three times this year including 322 yards and two scores in Cincinnati without the availability of NFL-quality receivers. That said, Weeden found a couple of fresh targets last week that actually caught the ball. The Brownies are on the verge of a win.
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Andy Dalton has calmed down from his initial 300 yard, three touchdown games in Weeks 2 & 3. Against the Jaguars, he only threw for 244 yards and two scores and then 234 yards with one touchdown against the Dolphins. We think Cincy is more sizzle than steak and with the glaring defensive issues plaguing this Cincinnati team we’re not comfortable spotting anything with them on the road, especially in a division matchup against a team they're sick of losing to. No units risked.
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Kansas City +4½ -104 over TAMPA BAY
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The Chiefs are currently boasting -15 turnover ratio. Who knew it went that high? While not all of it is QB Matt Cassel’s fault, he is shelved this week and Brady Quinn will get the start. A fresh face may help.
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Josh Freeman twice has failed to top 140 yards passing in a game. He has halted his own rushing attempts in an attempt to focus on his aerial game. That isn’t working out very well. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback, lacking  a supporting ground game and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack. Besides, never a good idea to giving away points with a team that has one win in its past 14 games. No units risked.
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Oakland +9 -105 over ATLANTA
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The NFL is a sport that is both physically and mentally exhausting. It has been proven time and time again that it’s near impossible to maintain peak levels over a 16-game schedule. Upsets happen all the time in both college and the NFL when a seemingly easy target comes to town. The big chalk consciously or subconsciously takes a breather and before they know it, they’re in a fight that they were not quite prepared for. Don’t be surprised to see the Falcons fall prey to this.
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The Falcons are feeling much love with their unblemished record and quality play. Atlanta’s huge division lead and upcoming week off could create some complacency. Oakland has had an extra week to right some wrongs and should be ready to go here. Every season the Raiders pull off an unlikely upset or come very close to doing so. This one sets up just right for them to put a scare into the host. No units risked.
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Dallas +3½ -104 over BALTIMORE
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The Cowboys started strongly, manhandling the Giants in season opener. It’s been topsy-turvy since but maybe Dallas best after rest. Cowboys are 7-1 against spread after a break and the underdog in Dallas games has been inordinately good.
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Baltimore sputtering a bit with strenuous efforts over lowly Chiefs and Browns. They’ve also allowed three passers (Dalton, Weeden and Brady) to exceed 320 yards and Tony Romo is quite capable of the same. Outside of week one win over Cincinnati, the Ravens have been anything but impressive. Until we see something different out of this aging group, we’re not comfortable spotting points with them against a potentially dangerous opponent. No units risked.
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PHILADELPHIA -3½ +102 over Detroit
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Tough one as the Eagles can’t score and the Lions can’t stop anyone. The Eagles are 3-2 overall but have been held to fewer than 20 in all but one game. The 1-3 Lions come off their bye having last lost to the visiting Vikings in a game that more or less confirmed that these are not the same Lions as 2011 group.
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Both squads have been wallet guzzlers, a combined 7-24 versus the number. Lions still too sloppy to endorse while Eagles figure to break out of their offensive doldrums against one of the weakest defenses a team can face. Remember Detroit’s 44-41 loss to the Titans? No units risked.
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MIAMI -3½ -110 over St. Louis
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Rams breathing the sweet air of a winning record for first time in six years but we’re not sure how long that will last. The Rams are still winless on the road and the loss of their best receiver will be more impactful on the road. Rams also in a letdown spot after consecutive home wins against offensively challenged Seahawks and Cardinals, the latter in prime time.
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Rams now travel to hot and stuffy Florida to face an improving Miami squad that is anxious to be home after two away. Fish could easily be 4-1 after difficult losses to both Jets and Cardinals. The Dolphins need a win here to reach .500 heading into their bye next week and this should be a very winnable game against a team with little offense like the Raiders, who showed up and were sent packing. No units risked.
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N.Y. Giants +6½ -106 over SAN FRAN
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The 49ers are on such a well-balanced roll that it is hard to remember that only three weeks ago they were spanked by the Vikings. Trap game aside, these 49ers are on a warpath this year. They’ve won consecutive games by a combined 79-3. Not only is this not the Jets or Bills visiting but when a club puts up big offensive scores in back-to-back weeks, you will subsequently pay a premium to wager on them and that seldom comes recommended.
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You’ll also hear and read about San Fran’s revenge factor after they lost to these Giants in last year’s classic NFC Championship game. That won’t bother the G-Men as they are 16-4 against the number versus teams looking to avenge a previous encounter. Eli Manning is still putting up outstanding numbers and New York is at its best when expected to lose. Taking a near touchdown with SB champs? What? No units risked.
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SEATTLE +3½ -110 over New England
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Much like the Niners, New England has put up eye-opening scores the past two weeks with 83 points scored. Offense attracts bettors, the odds makers know it, we know it and we also know to not get too caught up in it. Let’s not ignore that the Pats also gave up 31 points to the Ravens, 28 to the Bills and this is their fourth road game in the first six weeks.
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The Bermuda Triangle has nothing on CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Stronger teams cross into the northwest and die here as the Seahawks’ 12-2-1 home underdog record will attest to. New England’s offensive line will be tested in this matchup and if Seattle’s pass rushers are as good as advertised, this will be a game. No units risked.

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Jesse Schule
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St. Louis vs. San Francisco
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The Cardinals and the Giants begin the NL championship series in San Francisco tonight. Both teams can consider themselves fortunate to be here, with the Giants storming back from a 2-0 deficit against Cincinnati, and the Cardinals rallying in the 9th inning in Washington to mount their improbable comeback.
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Lance Lynn will get the nod for St. Louis tonight, and he has been working out of the bullpen so far in the playoffs. Lynn (18-7, 3.78 ERA) was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of the season, however he has struggled down the stretch. He only faced one batter in his last appearance against the Nationals, and he would get credit with a loss after giving up a solo home run that saw the Nationals win the game 2-1.
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He gave up a pair of homers over four innings in his previous appearance in the series against the Nats. He's 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA against the Giants this year, after just one previous start.
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Madison Bumgarner will be on the mound for San Francisco, and he has also struggled in recent starts. He got roughed up in his final start of the regular season, allowing five runs on four hits over four innings in a 7-3 loss to the Padres. He was then roughed up again when he started against the Reds in the ALDS. He went just 4.1 innings, allowing four runs on seven hits in a 9-0 loss.
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With these two struggling hurlers facing each other, we can expect a few runs scored in San Fran tonight.

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Dallas vs. Baltimore
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Dallas is fresh and ready coming off their bye week.  The Cowboys were embarrassed at home in their last game on Monday night.  They lost to the Bears 34-18 after they turned the ball over 5 times in that game.  Dallas is just 2-2 on the season as they’ve alternated wins and losses.  But the Cowboys have played better than that record indicates.  Dallas owns a terrific defense that is allowing just 278 yards per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Their problem has been their offensive miscues; the Cowboys have a -7 turnover margin.  In their two losses, they’ve turned the ball over 7 times while only creating 1 turnover for themselves.  But with the week off, we assume Dallas made some corrections and we anticipate them firing their best shot in this game.
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Baltimore comes into this game with a 4-1 record.  But aside from playing the Patriots, the Ravens have played an extremely weak schedule thus far.  Three of their five games have been decided by 3 points or less so there’s little room for error right now for Baltimore.  Their offense is much improved, but their defense has gone backwards; they are allowing 379 yards per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Their secondary has been torched for 7.3 yards per play, and Dallas QB Tony Romo should hit plenty of big plays downfield.  Baltimore has a much bigger game on deck with the Texans, and with Dallas in a good scheduling spot, we’ll take the points with the road underdog.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Cleveland Browns
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The Browns are banged up, but so is Cincinnati. Unimpressed with the Bengals, and I'm not sure they rate the road chalk role against anyone, even 0-5 Cleveland. I'll tab the Browns to get their first win.

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Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Detroit fall from grace continues. Following a 17-3 ATS run up, Detroit enters this matchup, with a week of rest on negative runs of 3-13 ATS and 1-10 ATS. They are quite simply OVERVALUED because of the presence on offense with QB Stafford and an overhyped defensive front. The numbers say that Detroit gains just 22% of their yards on the ground at 90/3.6 while their defense is allowing 29 PPG. The Eagles show far better numbers and are due for correction. In underperforming the 1st 5 weeks, 4/5 of their games have been decided by 2 or less points. That is in no small part the function of QB Vick who has thrown 6 INTs and had 5 fumbles. He is a huge contributor to the -9 net TO margin of the Eagles which is 2nd worst in the league, and clearly due for correction. With a run game that averages 135/4.5 and a pass defense that is among the league leaders at 53%/5.7DYPA, they have the ideal tools to profit from this matchup. A value price, 3 points below the opener, clinches our selection. Don't miss my NFL 3* Game of the Month "Take O

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Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City +4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Kansas City Chiefs continue to play well on the defensive side of the football. The losses have been due to the offense's 19 turnovers. But KC does get a new signal caller with the injury to Matt Cassel. While Brady Quinn is not a legitimate NFL starting QB for a long period of time, he isn't any worse than Cassel. After all, Cassel has been an interception waiting to happen in 2012. Quinn very well may be an upgrade with the way Cassel has played in 2012. The offense just needs to hang onto the ball - they're the NFL's 4th ranked unit in total yards per game. KC's defense checks-in 10th in the NFL in the same category, and will face the league's 30th ranked offense and 27th ranked defense in this one. Eliminate the ridiculous amount of turnovers and Kansas City is the better team...and they're getting points. I'm taking those points with the Chiefs on Sunday.

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Bengals / Browns Under 43.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I expect this divisional game to turn into a dogfight. Cleveland will be fighting for their first win of the season, while Cincinnati can't afford to lose for the second week in a row if they want to reach the playoffs this season. If we add the fact that the wind will be blowing at 20mph during the whole game, then we have the right ingredients for this game to turn into a very physical game and with both defenses being able to limit the offensive production of their opponents.
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Brandon Weeden continues to be able to have some good yardage on his passing game, however he also keeps making some silly mistakes that eventually end up being turnovers. The Browns' Offensive Line has been quite reasonable this season, however they will be facing one of the best pass rushing teams in the league, therefore I expect to see Weeden being hurried and even sacked several times during this game. With Cleveland missing three wide receivers for this game (Mohamed Massaquoi, Jordan Norwood and Travis Benjamin), I believe Brandon Weeden will have a very tough game, especially when the Bengals' secondary has been improving over the past few games, after a very poor start of the season. In terms of the running game, Trent Richardson has been quite inconsistent and unable to have some huge plays, therefore I believe the Bengals run defense will also be able to limit him today, especially when they are coming from an excellent performance against the dangerous Dolphins' running game.
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Andy Dalton has been having a good season, with some excellent combinations with A.J. Green, however Cleveland has a pass defense that is in the league's average for now and therefore, they should be able to limit the Bengals' production today in the passing game, especially with the wind causing problems to Dalton. To make things worse for the Bengals, their Offensive Line continues to have problems and Cleveland has a decent pass rush to take advantage of that. In terms of the running game, the Browns have been quite poor on run defense, however the Bengals' running game is equally poor and they just got even poorer by losing Bernard Scott for the season. BerJarvus Green-Ellis won't be able to put the Browns' defense in huge trouble on his own today.
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Therefore, I expect both teams to have problems on offense. Cleveland should struggle in all areas on offense, while Cincinnati might have one or two big passing plays and that would be it. I'm expecting this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

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Dr. Ed MeyerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Lions / Eagles Over 47.5
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Both these teams allowed the fewest points that they have allowed all season in their last game and both lost straight up -- the Eagles 16-14 to the Steelers and the Lions 20-16 to the Vikings.  We expect a high-scoring affair here.
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The Eagles are 14-0 OU after they held their previous opponent to fewer than 23 points as an underdog. 
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Detroit is 17-0 OU off of any Sunday game in which they allowed fewer than 23 points.
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Detroit is in a desperate spot.  They are off their bye week and they have lost and failed to cover three straight.  Their defense has allowed an average of 35.5 ppg this season on the road so they are not going to win this one by a score of something like 13-10.  They are going to have the throw the ball down the field to have any chance to win.
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The league as a whole is 9-0 OU (+10.7 ppg) recently as a road dog when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. This one was active when the Saints went into Green Bay and lost 27-28 in week 4 this season.
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Finally, it is worth mentioning that the league as a whole is 13-0 OU on the road when the OU line is at least 42 and they play on Monday Night the following week. 
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This one is already 2-0 OU this season.  Take these two OVER.
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MTi's FORECAST:  Detroit 31 PHILADELPHIA 28

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St Louis/ Miami Under 38: . The Dolphins are the top team in the league vs the rush and with the Rams needing the running game to be successful, I just don’t see how they will move the ball, especially with Bradford hitting just 57.5% of his pass and their top WR (Amendola) out. On the other side of the ball the Rams have played solid defense, allowing just 18.8 ppg, 218 ypg through the air and just 6 yards per attempt (7th in the league) and they will not let Ryan Tannehill a bunch of easy throws down the field. If Miami scores, it will be on time consuming drives. Both teams will have to really work the ball down the field. No easy scores here as these two defenses are very tough and these two offenses are below average. 30 points tops here.
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New England -3 over SEATTLE: I know this is a tough scheduling spot as the Pats are are off a big game with Denver and have had to travel cross country, but this is not an ideal spot for the Seahawks as they are off BB long trips, which included a trip to Carolina last week and they have a big conference game at San Francisco on Thursday coming up. Add all that together and I feel that it all evens out. The Patriots offense has been on fire of late as they have 113 points the last 3 weeks and they have been doing it both on the ground and through the air. Yes the Seattle defense has been strong this year, but 4 of the 5 teams they have played currently rank 25th or worst in scoring. They did have a good game vs Green Bay, but we have also seen that this is not a normal Green Bay offense this year. The Seattle defense hasn't been tested all that much this year, but they will today and I don't think they will pass the test. The Patriot defense is improved this year as they rank 21st in total defense, compared to 31st last year and while still not great they are facing a pretty weak Seattle offense that is scoring just 17.8 ppg. BOTH teams are traveling from the east coast and with New England being in that zone again vs a Seattle team that won't be able to match them point for point, I'll look for the Pats to win this one by DD. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 1992 the Patriots are 23-6  ATS when playing off a game in which they had 175+ rushing yards. 
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NY JETS -3 over Indianapolis: Last week the Colts played a very emotional game for coach Pagano, who has been diagnosed with Leukemia and now they must travel to take on a Jets squad that is playing their 3rd home game in a row. The Colts came back from 21-3 down to win last weeks game and they used allot of emotion and energy in that game and may just not be ready for this game. They are a young team and it is hard for young team to get up after such an emotional game the week before. The Jets are a team that looked much better on Monday night then they had and Sanchez performed well under the pressure he was on.  The Jet defense also played well in the game and should be able to slow down Luck and the Colt offense in this one. New York needs this one bad and will not lose 3 home games in a row. i look for them to get a big win over this emotionally drained Colts squad.
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Dallas/ Baltimore Over 44: I had the Over in the KC/ Baltimore game last week and it was a stinker. I expect better results this week. The Dallas offense has weapons and I feel that Romo can get them the ball, especially vs this aging Baltimore defense. The Raven defense has allowed just 17.8 ppg, but 380 yards per game, including 261 ypg through the air. The Dallas offense has had some problems scoring but they still can throw the ball (296 ypg) and should move the ball pretty easily vs this weak Baltimore pass defense. The Baltimore offense has been clicking for the most part and will use the no-huddle once again and that should NOT eat allot of clock. The Ravens come in averaging 26 ppg and 281 ypg passing and should put up some points on this pretty solid Dallas defense that really hasn't been tested yet. This game should see allot of balls in the air and that should lead to plenty of points being scored by both teams.
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Kansas City/ Tampa Bay Under 40.5: Run, run, run. That's what I expect from both teams in this one. Brady Quinn is in at QB for Kansas City and I can't see him being asked to do much, especially with the power running game that The Chiefs have. KC comes in averaging 180 ypg on the ground at 5.2 ypc, but I do not expect allot of big runs here vs a Tampa defense that has allowed just 73.8 ypg and 3.2 ypc. Even at Rutgers Schiano had great run defenses and he does here as well. That should force Quinn into some long yardage situations and I don't expect him to convert on many of those. The Tampa offense is pretty weak as they come in averaging just 276 ypg, including 91 ypg on the ground. They should get some chances to run the ball in this one as the Chiefs allow 121 ypg on the ground and 4.4 ypc. Schiano plays his games close to the vest, while on the other side I don't expect Quinn to be asked to do much. Allot of running and defense in this game should keep this game in the low 30's at best.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 14

Bob Balfe

Jets -3.5 over Colts

The Colts are coming off such an emotional victory in which they battled back from a huge halftime hole that I just don't think the intensity is going to be there today like it was at home a week ago. The Jets are a dangerous football team because they are in desperation mode and are starting to get a few guys back into the lineup. The Colts have a talent QB in Andrew Luck, but he is just a rookie and never has won on the road. Indy is pretty banged up in the running game and on defense. Its easy to remember what the Colts did last week, but the Packers are not the same team as in the past few seasons and today has nothing to do with last Sunday. I think the Jets will win pretty easily. Take New York.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 14

Art Aronson
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Buffalo vs. Arizona
Pick: Buffalo
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Everyone is very much done on the Buffalo Bills right now, that’s why there is some good value in them this week.
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The Bills have not looked good the last few weeks, losing blowout games both at home and on the road. I think it’s important to remember that they were playing the New England Patriots and the San Francisco 49ers. The Pats and the 49ers are considered Super bowl favorites. While the Bills should never be confused with being a contender for the big game, they surely aren’t as bad as they have shown the past few weeks.
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“We have the talent,” Bill’s QB Ryan Fitzpatrick said. "That's something we know we have."
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I think we see the Bills offense get shut down again like we saw last week in San Fran.
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The Arizona Cardinals are a team that don’t score that much, they are averaging just 18.8 points this year. They have their fair share of troubles as we saw in their last game against the Rams. Injuries to their running backs have them down to their third string runner. Remember: the Bills have been outgained in yardage in their last four games.  Their offensive line was not good against the Rams, leaving Kevin Kolb to see pressure all game. If the Bills put together any sort of a pass rush, they could very much be in this game.
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I like the Cardinals more as an underdog than a favorite. Arizona is just 0-2 ATS as the favorite and 4-7 ATS in the last three years.
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Teams in the NFL have a way of bouncing back, coming off a double digit loss, even on the road. Road under dogs off back-to-back ATS losses of 20 or more are 17-6 ATS against opponents off a loss.
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I think the Bills look at this game as a winnable game for them that they need to take of advantage of after two straight bad losses. Take the Bills on the road plus the points.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NLCS Series St. Louis -105 over SAN FRANCISCO
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Both these teams refuse to lose. The Cardinals have been on the bad side of four match points in the last 13 months and after Friday night's madness in Washington, they are still standing. The Giants endured the Melky Cabrera adversity and after losing their first two games in the postseason, they came back to beat the Reds, in Cincinnati, no less.
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Although San Francisco found a way past the Reds, Matt Cain looks very shaky and Madison Bumgarner is not throwing well. Barry Zito didn't get through five innings in his start in Game 5 and if Bruce Bochy is forced to use him, we’ll be thrilled. We tend to think of San Francisco as a team with dominant starting pitching but in the first round the Giants got only 22.2 innings in five games from their rotation. They will need more in this round. So far, the Giants' rotation has zero quality starts this October.
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The Cardinals pitching looks good. Chris Carpenter is throwing well. Adam Wainwright, despite rough game five against Nats, is a stud. Lance Lynn is very capable. Then there’s the bullpen. Every October, a relief star is born. This year, it's the Cardinals' Trevor Rosenthal, who has been mixing a 100 mph fastball with a devastating breaking ball and dominating hitters. In 3.1 innings, he has struck out six hitters and he'll get more chances against the Giants. Bruce Bochy might be the best in the business at handling his bullpen and finding the right matchups but as the Giants face the Cardinals, it will be more difficult for to pick and choose because of the depth of the St. Louis lineup, from Carlos Beltran to Matt Holliday to the incredibly underrated Allen Craig to David Freese. Less flaws, better pitching has us backing the Redbirds.

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St Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
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Both teams came up big on the road in the NLDS and now they meet in the NLCS starting in San Francisco. St. Louis is flying high after being down 6-0 in the game and 7-5 headed into the 9th in the game five before coming back to win 9-7 and advance. San Francisco is flying high themselves as they spotted Cincinnati a 2-0 series lead losing both games at home went into Cincinnati and won close games and got a monster grand slam from their MVP Posey to lead the way. Look for the road warrior mentality to continue in this series as the Cardinals get past the Giants in San Francisco with the Cardinals line up being too tough to handle. Play St. Louis

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 14

Scott Delaney

My free pick for today is going to be on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers laying the points at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, as I think coach Greg Schiano's bunch will be revitalized after a bye week, and will look more like the team that beat Carolina in Week 1 and in a near-win over the defending Super Bowl champion Giants in Week 2.

Brady Quinn is in under center for the Chiefs, stepping up for Matt Cassel, who committed 14 turnovers over five games. And even though Tampa has allowed more passing yardage than any other NFL team, the Chiefs are the perfect team to try out the adjustments I suspect Schiano has made.

I'd rather side with Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman, who let's not forget a big season in 2010, throwing for 25 touchdowns with just six interceptions. This season he is completing less than 55 percent of his passes with four interceptions in four games. Another great spot for another component of the Buccaneers' game. Freeman should be able to light things up after a rest week, and now playing at home against a listless Chiefs team that has lost two straight and four of five on the year.

Though Romeo Crennel may have the longevity in the coaching department, I don't think his conservative approach does the Chiefs any favors. In fact, some may say it cost his team a victory against Baltimore last week. I like Schiano's energy more than I do Crennel's, and I think he's going to have a brand-new Buccaneers energy on display in this game.

Lay the home chalk.

5♦ TAMPA BAY

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