AFC Title Game Spread Prediction
The Titans not only knocked off the Patriots and Ravens the past two weeks, they did so as an underdog in each game. Will the Titans make it three in a row with an upset win over the Chiefs? Or will Tennessee at least cover in today’s AFC title game?
313 Tennessee Titans (+7) at 314 Kansas City Chiefs (-7); o/u 52
3:05 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 19, 2020
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 63% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Tennessee Titans Fantasy Spin
Ryan Tannehill completed 7-of-14 passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns, adding six carries for 13 yards and another score on the ground in Tennessee's Divisional Round upset over the Ravens. Tannehill became the first player to throw for two scores and rush for another in a playoff game since Cam Newton did so in the 2015 NFC Championship. The free-agent-to-be attempted fewer than 16 passes and threw for less than 90 yards for the second straight game but remained uber efficient on his limited tries, finding Jonnu Smith for a 12-yard touchdown in the first quarter, hitting Kalif Raymond for a 45-yard bomb over the top of Baltimore's secondary, and pushing Tennessee's lead to 28-6 in the second half with a one-yard keeper from shotgun. He'll look to keep it going in either Arrowhead or NRG Stadium for the AFC Championship game next week.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Coach Andy Reid confirmed TE Travis Kelce (knee) will play Sunday against the Titans. There wasn't much doubt that Kelce would suit up this week, but Reid did note that the Chiefs' stud TE is feeling better than he did before their Divisional Round win over the Texans. The main focus of the Titans could be slowing down Kelce. Only the Cardinals (16) and Browns (10) allowed more touchdowns to opposing TEs than the Titans (9) this season. Ball-hawking FS Kevin Byard will be needed more than ever to help slow down this passing game. Byard has 17 interceptions over the past three seasons; nobody else has reached even 14.
NFL Betting Trends
The Titans are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games, and are 7-2 against the number in their last nine games overall.
The Chiefs are 6-0-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall and are 3-0-1 against the number in their last four games as a home favorite.
Derrick Henry has destroyed the Chiefs in three career meetings, rushing for 134.0 yards per game, which includes a 188-yard rushing effort in Week 10. He’s also averaged 7.3 yards on 55 career rushes against the Chiefs and the Titans are 3-0 in those games. Thus, not only has Henry been a monster in the postseason, he’s been a monster specifically versus the Chiefs.
Defensively, Mike Vrabel’s squad shut down the Patriots in Foxborough (in January) and then put the clamps on Lamar Jackson and the top-scoring offense last Saturday in Baltimore. Patrick Mahomes is a different beast altogether, but I firmly believe Tennessee will have a solid game plan to at least keep Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Mahomes in check.
The Titans are 5-1 against the spread in their last six trips to Arrowhead Stadium and are 4-0 against the number in their last four games versus the Chiefs overall. The road team, meanwhile, has covered in eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams and the underdog is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREDICTION: TENNESSEE TITANS +7