WNBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, September 29th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
WNBA Betting Pick
By Allen Moody
Bangthebook.com
So far it’s been hard to knock the WNBA Finals from an entertainment standpoint, as both of the first two games were decided by two points or less in games that could have gone either way. Los Angeles is favored by 3.5 and the total is 155.5.
After the Sparks jumped out to a huge first-quarter lead in Game 1, it was the Lynx who did the same in Game 2 and then had to fight off Los Angeles down the stretch to take the 70-68 victory, as things got a little sloppy in the fourth quarter.
Game 2’s low-scoring outcome has influenced the total on this one to an extent, as the total was 158 for Game 2 and has dropped 2.5 points in part due to the score of the game, as well as due to Los Angeles’ tendency to play better defense at home. For the season the Sparks average 83.3 points per game and allow 75.3, but at home those numbers change to 82.9 and 70.1.
The Lynx are your more traditional home and away team, averaging 85.4 points and allowing 74.6 overall on the season, and scoring 83.2 and allowing 75.5 points when on the road.
The Sparks were 18-1 straight-up at home during the year, while the Lynx were 13-5 away from home. Los Angeles was 14-5 against the spread, while Minnesota was 11-7, so both teams have fared well in tonight’s location, although the Sparks have done a little better.
When the two teams met in Los Angeles last month the Sparks were favored by 3 and the total was 155, so neither has really moved all that much, and Los Angeles came away with a 78-67 victory. The Lynx had a better shooting game than the Sparks, but attempted 10 fewer free throws and made 10 more turnovers. Teams aren’t going to win many games that way.
So far this series is following the same script as last year’s finals, where Los Angeles won the first game in Minnesota and the Lynx tied things up in Game 2, so we could very well be looking at another five-game series.
Neither team shot particularly well last game and the number of 3-point attempts was down quite a bit. After combining for 34 attempts in Game 1, the teams only attempted 18 last game and made just four.
I make the game Los Angeles 79-78, so no real value on either the side and the total, but will take a small stab on the over 155.5 and look for both offenses to be a bit better than they were in Game 2.
MINNESOTA (31 - 8 ) at LOS ANGELES (30 - 9) - 9/29/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
LOS ANGELES is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
LOS ANGELES is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in August or September games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) on Friday this season.
LOS ANGELES is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after a division game this season.
LOS ANGELES is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOS ANGELES is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) on Friday this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 12-8 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 11-9 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
13 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Los Angeles is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
StatFox Super Situations
MINNESOTA at LOS ANGELES
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 playing with 2 days rest, in August or September games 67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units ) 12-6 this year. ( 66.7% | 5.4 units )
MINNESOTA at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Any team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half 58-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.6% | 0.0 units ) 14-5 this year. ( 73.7% | 0.0 units )
MINNESOTA at LOS ANGELES
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (MINNESOTA) vs. division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite 59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units ) 3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )