Missouri vs. Tennessee Prediction & Odds

Missouri vs. Tennessee 11/12/22 Betting Prediction, Odds & Trends

Unranked Missouri travels to Knoxville to face #5 Tennessee at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Tigers cover the spread as 20.5-point road underdogs?

Missouri is 4-5 on the year, with their best wins coming against Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Their worst losses came against Auburn and Florida. The Tigers are 5-4 ATS on the year. 

Tennessee is 8-1 on the year with their best wins coming against LSU and Alabama. Their only loss came against Georgia last weekend. The Volunteers are 7-2 ATS on the year.

Game Matchup and Betting Odds

141 Missouri Tigers +20.5 at 142 Tennessee Volunteers -20.5; O/U 57 

12:00 PM ET Saturday, November 12th, 2022

Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN

Missouri vs. Tennessee Public Betting Information

The public favors the Volunteers in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 56% of public bets are on Tennessee -20.5. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around. 

Missouri Game Notes

Missouri has six players that have recorded 2 sacks or more on the season. The best of them is likely junior linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper. Hopper is second on the team in total tackles with 48, and he’s recorded three sacks this year. On top of that, Ty’Ron Hopper has also defended two passes, hauled in an interception, and forced a fumble on the season. He’ll likely need to have a standout game if Missouri is going to cover the number. 

On offense, the Tigers’ best player is wide receiver, Dominic Lovett. Lovett is fourth in the SEC in catches (45), and third in receiving yards (659). The sophomore from East St. Louis didn’t record a catch against Kentucky last week, but he had a monster game in Missouri’s road win over South Carolina, reeling in 10 passes for 148 yards. He’ll need to step up on Saturday if the Tigers want to keep it close. 

Tennessee Game Notes               

Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker had his worst game of the season in the Volunteers’ 27-13 loss to Georgia on Saturday. He only threw for 195 yards, with 0 touchdown passes, and 1 interception. The biggest issue was Tennessee’s pass protection as Hooker was sacked 6 times and was only able to muster 17 rushing yards on 18 attempts. Hooker’s Heisman candidacy may have taken a hit, but things should be easier for him this week against Missouri.

One way that Tennessee can open things up for Hendon Hooker is the running game. Tennessee has two main running backs, Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. Both backs have carried the ball exactly 113 times this season, with Jaylen Wright running for 547 yards and Small gaining 483. Jabari Small is more of a receiving threat out of the backfield, as he has 11 catches for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns on the year. Small only had 3 carries in the loss against Georgia last week, but he’s had at least 10 carries in each of Tennessee’s ranked wins in 2022. He could see an uptick in carries against a Missouri defense that’s allowing 3.3 yards per rushing attempt, the 115th-best mark in the nation. 

Missouri vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

Missouri is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

Missouri is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Tennessee is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November.

Missouri vs. Tennessee Betting Prediction

I know it’s not a perfect comparison, but Missouri only lost to Georgia by 4 when they played them earlier this year, and Tennessee just lost to Georgia by 14 this past weekend. I do think that Tennessee’s loss to Georgia took something out of them. The Georgia defense was flying around the field all day and delivering big hit after big hit on the Tennessee ball carriers. There might be a hangover there for the Volunteers’ offense.

There’s also the matter of Missouri’s underrated defense. The Tigers rank in the top 25 nationally in opponent yards per pass attempt, opponent’s average passer rating, opponent yards per rush attempt, opponent yards per play, and sack percentage. I don’t think the Tigers will win this game, but their defense should keep it close enough to cover the number.   

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 PREDICTION: MISSOURI TIGERS +20.5

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