Houston vs. UCF Prediction
Will UCF be able to pick up a lopsided win at home when the Knights play host to Houston on Saturday at Noon ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
321 Houston vs. 322 UCF
Saturday, November 2, 2019
Noon ET – Spectrum Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, UCF is favored at home in this game, as the Knights are getting odds of -23 points against Houston. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 69.5 points. The public betting currently has 58 percent going on Houston as the road underdog. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Houston edged by SMU
The Houston Cougars have alternated wins and losses over their last five games and are coming off a 34-31 loss at home to SMU last Thursday. Houston is now 3-5 on the season, 1-3 in the AAC, 4-4 against the spread and 4-3-1 with the under.
Houston is struggling on defense this year, giving up 31.1 points and 459.6 yards per game this year. Offensively, the Cougars are putting up 30.9 points and 409.8 yards per contest. Clayton Tune has emerged as the starting QB. He has thrown for 715 yards and five touchdowns this year in limited action. Kyle Porter is the team’s leading rusher with 479 yards and three touchdowns, while Marquez Stevenson is the leading receiver with 34 catches for 656 yards and six touchdowns.
UCF back on a win streak
After a loss to Cincinnati early in October, the Knights have won their last two games. That includes a 63-21 win at Temple last weekend in an impressive showing. UCF is 6-2 on the season, 3-1 in the AAC, 4-4 against the spread and 5-3 with the over.
The Knights remain one of the most prolific offenses in the nation, averaging 46.6 points and 561.4 yards per game this year. The UCF defense is allowing just 21.6 points and 339.2 yards per game. Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 2,218 yards and 20 touchdowns to lead this UCF offense. Gabriel Davis is his leading receiver with 50 catches for 916 yards and 10 touchdowns while Otis Anderson is the leading rusher with 513 yards and three scores.
College Football Betting Trends
The Cougars are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a winning team.
The Knights are 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 games on grass and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.
Houston has actually won its last two against UCF, but the two haven’t met since 2016. These programs have gone in very different directions since then. UCF is now the class of the AAC while Houston has struggled to get back its identity after Tom Herman left. I expected the Knights to be tested last week at Temple and they absolutely dominated the Owls. The problem is, they also had just a 13-point win over ECU. They can be a bit streaky at times, but I expect this offense to mark all over a bad Houston defense. The key will be for the Knights to slow down the Houston offense, which can be explosive. However, going on the road for this game should be tough for the Cougars, especially against a UCF team that looks to be back on track.
College Football Week 10 Prediction: UCF -23