Cincinnati vs. SMU Prediction & Odds

Cincinnati vs. SMU 10/22/22 Betting Prediction, Odds & Trends

Number twenty-one Cincinnati travels to Dallas to face SMU at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Bearcats win and cover the spread as 3.5-point road favorites?

Cincinnati is 5-1 on the year, and their best wins were over Indiana and Tulsa. The Bearcats' only loss came in Week 1 at Arkansas. The Bearcats are 2-3-1 ATS on the season. 

SMU is 3-3 on the year with their best wins coming against North Texas and Navy. Their worst losses were against Maryland and UCF. The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS on the year.

Game Matchup and Betting Odds

389 Cincinnati Bearcats -3.5 at 390 SMU Mustangs +3.5; O/U 58.5 

12:00 PM ET Saturday, October 22nd, 2022

Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX

Cincinnati vs. SMU Public Betting Information

The public is heavily favoring the Bearcats in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 74% of public bets are on Cincinnati -3.5. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around. 

Cincinnati Game Notes

There are two injury statuses to monitor for Cincinnati before Saturday’s game. The first is starting quarterback Ben Bryant. Bryant was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, but Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell said that Bryant is “hopeful” for Saturday’s SMU game according to Justin Williams of The Athletic. Bryant has thrown for 1,561 yards and 15 touchdowns on the year. If he can’t go it will be third-year backup Evan Prater who completed 4 of 4 passes for 92 yards in Cincy’s 63-10 win over Kennesaw State in Week 2.

Cincinnati’s top wide receiver Tyler Scott is also on the injury report, as he left Saturday’s game against South Florida with an ankle injury. Scott leads the Bearcats in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and yards per catch. If he’s unable to play, Cincinnati wideout Tre Tucker will see an increased target share against SMU on Saturday.         

SMU Game Notes               

The key player for SMU on Saturday will be their quarterback Tanner Mordecai. He’s thrown for 2,016 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on the season. But he’s really struggled in the Mustangs’ three losses. In those games, Mordecai had a touchdown to interception ratio of 5-5 and only completed 57% of his passes while taking 5 sacks. He’ll have his work cut out for him this weekend as Cincinnati’s defense is 10th in the country in opposing team passer rating at 111.8.

SMU running back Tre Siggers leads the team with 60 carries, but he missed last week’s game against Navy and is questionable for Saturday’s clash with Cincinnati. He has an undisclosed injury. This might not be a bad thing for SMU as their backup running back Velton Gardner has more rushing yards than Siggers and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. The Mustangs may want to run the ball to mitigate Cincinnati’s pass rush as the Bearcats are leading the nation in sacks, averaging 4.4 per game.     

Cincinnati vs. SMU Betting Trends

Cincinnati is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

SMU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

SMU is 1-4 ATS in 5 games against teams with a winning record.

Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against SMU.

Cincinnati vs. SMU Betting Prediction

This line is only Cincinnati -3.5 because of the possibility that starting quarterback Ben Bryant might not play. I’m not sure it will matter. Cincinnati has one of the best defenses in all of college football as they’re only allowing 4.1 yards per play. That is the fourth-best figure in the country. The Bearcats are also 26th in the country in average scoring margin, outsourcing opponents by 9.8 points per game. I think they win this game handily, even if backup QB Evan Prater gets the starting nod. 


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