LSU Win-Total Prediction

College Football Predictions: Is 9 wins too high for LSU? 7/22/17

Can Ed Orgeron lead LSU back to the pinnacle of college football in the 2017 season? Here’s our take on what the Tigers will do this year.

According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, LSU is listed with 18/1 odds to win the College Football Playoffs. The Tigers are also listed with 5/1 odds to win the SEC, while their over/under total for wins is listed at 9. The over is set at -185, while the under is listed at +150.

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Orgeron is taking over his first full season with LSU. He led the Tigers for most of last season after Les Miles was fired by the team. He coached LSU to a 6-2 record with a 4-2 mark in the SEC. Those numbers pushed LSU to an 8-4 overall record with a 5-3 record in the SEC. LSU has not won 10 games in their last three seasons after going four straight seasons with at least 10 wins.

As always, LSU had a dominant defense in the 2016 season. The Tigers allowed just 16.4 points and 323 yards per game last year. LSU returns one of its top defensive players from last year in Arden Key. He had 12 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss last season and is among the dark horse Heisman contenders this year. Also back is Donte Jackson, a defensive back with 10 pass deflections and two interceptions last year. Offensively, LSU will hope to improve on its average of 28.3 points and 423 yards per game from last season. The Tigers averaged just 190.1 passing yards per game in 2016. It will be up to Danny Etling to improve on that. He threw for 2,123 yards and 11 touchdowns with five interceptions last year. Leonard Fournette moved on to the NFL, but Derrius Guice rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2016 and he will certainly be the focal point of the offense this year.

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LSU starts the season against BYU from NRG Stadium in Houston. The Tigers also face Chattanooga, Syracuse and Troy in non-conference play. SEC home games include Auburn, Arkansas and Texas A&M. The Tigers will have to visit Mississippi State, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Tennessee. This schedule is pretty rough, especially with five SEC road games. I like the LSU defense a lot, but I expect more offensive issues for the Tigers. Etling has shown me nothing in three years of college football experience with LSU and Purdue that he is capable to lead an offense to big numbers. As he continues to struggle, it puts more pressure on the defense to have to be perfect. Guice is a great back, but he can’t do it all. If you’re looking for an upset this season in regards to win total, I think LSU won’t make it to 9.

2017 WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: LSU UNDER 9 (+150)

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