The Mets and Braves each need one victory to qualify for the postseason. The NL East rivals will meet for a double-header on Monday in Atlanta. Here are our Monday MLB Best Bets for the final day of the MLB regular season.
Sunday MLB Best Bets Recap
My best bet selections for Sunday were the Brewers (+100) once again for the aforementioned Mets, the underdog Orioles (+140) in Minnesota and the under 7 runs in the Reds and Cubs series finale. The Orioles were our big cash as they rallied to erase an early 2-0 deficit to beat the Twins, 6-2.
Unfortunately, I went back to the well one too many times with the Brewers, who lost 5-0 to the Mets. That said, the Reds and Cubs combined for only three runs to cash the under, so we had another 2-1 ATS day.
I wrapped up the final week of the MLB regular season with a 13-7-1 record. A $100.00 bettor would have profited $620.00 for the week. That’s good, but we still have one more day left, so let’s see if we can’t finish in the green after today.
Monday MLB Best Bet: Atlanta Braves -165 (Game 1), 1:10 p.m. ET
So here’s the deal for today. As long as each team wins at least one game, they’re in. The Braves will go with rookie Spencer Schwellenbach for Game 1 of today’s double header and Chris Sale is scheduled for Game 2. Schwellenbach just beat the Mets on Tuesday night, allowing one run in seven innings. He has allowed only one run in 14 innings in two starts versus the Mets.
Assuming Luis Severino starts Game 1 for the Mets, then we’re in good shape. He faced the Braves on Tuesday and allowed four runs in just four innings. In five career starts versus the Braves, Severino is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA.
Monday MLB Best Bet: New York Mets +150 (Game 2), 4:10 p.m. ET
Here’s the idea behind taking the Braves in Game 1 and the Mets in Game 2. As previously mentioned, Schwellenbach will start Game 1 for Atlanta and Sale will start Game 2. However, if the Braves beat the Mets in Game 1, then they qualify for the postseason and thus, they’ll save Sale for the opener of the wild-card series. For Atlanta, the focus needs to be on winning the first game of the double-header. The Braves don’t want to have to use Sale just to get into the playoffs.
If I’m right and the Braves win the first game of the double header, then they won’t need Game 2. They’ll already be in the postseason and they can take a sigh of relief. As for the Mets, they would then need to win Game 2 in order to qualify for the playoffs. If they lose both games, then the Diamondbacks would clinch.
That said, I don’t see the Mets losing both games – not if the Braves take their foot off the gas following a win in Game 1. Keep in mind that the odds for this game would shift significantly if the Braves win Game 1. So if you like my theory, you’d almost have to play both games before first pitch of Game 1 (1:10 p.m. ET).
Monday MLB Best Bet: Game 1 under 9.5, 1:10 p.m. ET
I think Game 1 of this double header will feel like a playoff game throughout. As previously mentioned, Schellenbach has been outstanding against the Mets this season and even if Severino has his troubles, hitters will be tight in that first game. With a 9.5-run total, we have a lot of room for error.