Sun Belt Conference Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com
Appalachian St. Mountaineers (2015: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +225
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Mountaineers: It was another solid season for Appalachian St. which won 11 games overall including a 7-1 record in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers have gone 13-3 since joining the FBS and they should be just as strong this season with 16 starters returning and they do not have to play Arkansas St. which is another team projected to challenge for the championship.
Why not to bet the Mountaineers: Expectations are high once again in Boone which can make the Mountaineers a very overvalued team once again. They led the Sun Belt in offense last season and bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Taylor Lamb but three of his top four receivers are gone. They closed the season on a 1-5 ATS run after a 9-3-1 ATS streak prior to that going back to 2015.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Arkansas St. Red Wolves (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +225
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Red Wolves: Arkansas St. is in the mix every year despite head coaches and coordinators being scooped up by bigger schools and last year was no exception. Head coach Blake Anderson patched together all of the holes for the Red Wolves to go undefeated in the conference. The defense will lead the way in what should be a chance to make it to a sixth straight bowl game.
Why not to bet the Red Wolves: The offense has plenty of holes to fill including replacing quarterback Fredi Knighten as well as learning a new system after offensive coordinator Walt Bell left for the same position at Maryland. Maybe there was luck involved last season as the Red Wolves led the FBS with eight defensive touchdowns and tied for second in the nation with 34 turnovers gained.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Georgia Southern Eagles (2015: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +250
Season win total: 8
Why to bet the Eagles: Georgia Southern is the third team predicted to contend for the Sun Belt title following consecutive nine-win seasons and going to its first ever bowl game in 2015. The offense will be explosive once again with its option attack that led the nation in rushing last season and is a tough one to defend. The defense, which was second last season, returns most of the pieces from its front seven.
Why not to bet the Eagles: There could be some transition issues as head coach Willie Fitz left for Tulane and is replaced by Tyson Summers who has never been a head coach at any level. His strength is defense and he will need to make some magic in the secondary that has to replace everybody. The Eagles have to play both Appalachian St. and Arkansas St.
Season win total pick: Over 8
UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (2015: 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +800
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Cajuns: Last season was a major disappointment as the Cajuns failed to possess a winning record for the first time under head coach Mark Hudspeth so there should be a big rebound in Lafayette. The offense, despite having to replace its starting quarterback, should be better with All American candidate Elijah McGuire at running back while the defense has nowhere to go but up.
Why not to bet the Cajuns: While last year is considered an aberration by most, this could be a team on the decline and void of the talent to compete with the top three. It will be up to the defense to turn things around but it was so bad last season that a big step up may not even be enough. The Cajuns had just 11 takeaways last season. Defenses will key on McGuire so a passing game has to emerge.
Season win total pick: Under 6.5
Troy Trojans (2015: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season win total: 6
Why to bet the Trojans: It does not seem that long ago when Troy used to dominate the Sun Belt but in reality, it has been a long time. The Trojans have not had a winning season since 2010 but things should be on the rise this year as head coach Neal Brown enters his second season. They lost three games by a total of 12 points and welcome back the one of the top quarterbacks in the conference in Brandon Silvers.
Why not to bet the Trojans: While being called a dynasty in the past may be an overstatement, Troy has fallen on hard times and it may take more to get back up than most people may think. While Silvers is solid, there is little around him as far as playmakers and the defense lost its best player. While not quite in rebuild mode, it will be tough for the Trojans to keep up in the top half of the Sun Belt.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Georgia St. Panthers (2015: 6-7 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1400
Season win total: 4.5
Why to bet the Panthers: Georgia St. was the story of the Sun Belt last season as after going a combined 1-23 in 2013 and 2014, it closed the regular season on a four-game winning streak to finish 6-6 to earn its first ever bowl berth. That momentum can carry forward for the Panthers which will be led by a defense that was solid last season and brings back nine starters so it should be even stronger.
Why not to bet the Panthers: Georgia St. is no longer a pushover which means it will not be sneaking up on any team this season. The Panthers lost the SBC Offensive Player of the Year in quarterback Nick Arbuckle and he will be impossible to replace. The Panthers cashed at the betting window frequently last season but the linesmakers will be making their adjustments this year.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5
Idaho Vandals (2015: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 3.5
Why to bet the Vandals: Going 4-8 last season may not sound very promising but considering the Vandals won three games in the previous three seasons combined, last year was a huge success. Taking another big step forward will be tough but the offense has the potential to become explosive and bottom half of the conference is so bad that Idaho could sneak into a bowl game for the first time since 2009.
Why not to bet the Vandals: While last season may be considered a success, it can also be considered what could have been as the Vandals blew big leads against New Mexico St. and South Alabama to miss out on a bowl game. The results in 2016 will largely come from how the defense performs as it has to improve immensely from its 123rd ranking in scoring defense from last season.
Season win total pick: Over 3.5
South Alabama Jaguars (2015: 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 3
Why to bet the Jaguars: South Alabama has been a .500 or so team the last three seasons so it knows how to win but has not been able to get over the hump. A three-game losing skid to end last season denied it a second straight bowl game so that should provide plenty of motivation going into this season. But an upset along the way could mean plenty of opportunities in the second half of the season.
Why not to bet the Jaguars: South Alabama has a very strong chance of starting the season 1-5 before the schedule eases up but by then, the towel could already be tossed in. Defense could be an issue for the Jaguars, who return only five starters from a unit that gave up 35.8 ppg in Sun Belt games while allowing 45 or more points five times and had a conference-low eight sacks.
Season win total pick: Over 3
New Mexico St. Aggies (2015: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3300
Season win total: 3
Why to bet the Aggies: The three victories last season were the most for the Aggies since 2011 and three of their nine losses were by a touchdown or less so things could be looking up in Las Cruces. New Mexico St. will have a very strong rushing attack and while the defense was horrible, the hiring of former Boston College head coach Frank Spaziani as defensive coordinator should provide a big lift.
Why not to bet the Aggies: New Mexico St. has not had a winning season since 2002, has surpassed four wins only once since 2003 and has not been to a bowl game since 1960 so backing this team may seem lethal. While Spaziani is a great hire, it takes players and talent to greatly upgrade the defense and the Aggies just do not have that. A 1-8 start to the season is not out of the question.
Season win total pick: Over 3
UL-Monroe Warhawks (2015: 2-11 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +4000
Season win total: 3.5
Why to bet the Warhawks: After seeing its win total drop in each of the last three years, UL-Monroe fired head coach Todd Berry and hired McNeese St.
head coach Matt Viator so change could be good. Only two of the Warhawks 11 losses were by single digits while only one win came against a team from the FBS so there will be plenty of value early in the season as the public will want nothing to do with them.
Why not to bet the Warhawks: The Warhawks bring back most of their offense but that offense was inept at times last season so it will be hard to gauge how much improvement there will be. Defensively, they were good at times and atrocious in others and 2016 is a complete unknown as the whole unit is rebuilding. It does not help that the Warhawks have to play on the road against the top three teams in the conference.
Season win total pick: Under 3.5
Texas St. Bobcats (2015: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +10000
Season win total: 3
Why to bet the Bobcats: Texas St. improved its win total in each of its first three years at the FBS level but dropped to just three wins last season so there is plenty of room for improvement. A new head coach in Everett Withers could breathe new life into the program. All but one loss last season was by double-digits so we will be seeing some big underdog numbers to take advantage of.
Why not to bet the Bobcats: While it was a surprisingly bad season last year, it would be more surprising if the Bobcats show much improvement this season. Every position on the offense is up for grabs in the fall and Withers stated that 45 percent of the roster has been turned over in the offseason. It will be a tough early part of the season with a first FBS win likely not coming until November.
Season win total pick: Under 3