CFL Betting Recap - Week 10
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 10
Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in Week 10
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 10
Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 10
The 'Over/Under' went 2-2 in Week 10
Team Betting Notes
Calgary (7-1-1) held off Hamilton (4-5) in a wild fourth quarter Sunday night, winning and covering 30-24. The Stampeders are unbeaten since Week 1, going 7-0-1 while covering seven of the past eight outings. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the past four games for the Stamps.
Edmonton (5-4) took care of Saskatchewan (1-8 ) in Friday's game, 33-25. The Roughriders scored their most points since July 22 after averaging 8.8 points per game over the past four outings. The cover for Saskatchewan was their first in five games.
The Eskimos are 0-3 ATS when favored by more than seven points. They're non-cover Friday snapped a 3-0 ATS run for the Esks.
Winnipeg (5-4) continues their comeback after an awful start, topping Montreal (3-6) by a 32-18 count. After starting out 1-4 SU/1-3-1 ATS through the first five games, the Blue Bombers are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS over the past four outings. The Blue Bombers are also an impressive 4-1 SU/ATS on the road this season.
BC Lions (6-3) looked impressive in their road win at Ottawa (4-4-1), as the RedBlacks continue to slide. BC has won three out of the past four, and they're 5-1 ATS over the past six outings. Ottawa is almost the complete opposite, going 1-4 SU over the past five games while failing to cover in each of the outings.
BC will continue its road trip at Toronto (4-4) on Wednesday evening. The Argonautrs have dropped two in a row and failed to cover in each. The Lions won 27-25 at Toronto last season, covering as a three-point 'dog. The last time they failed to win or cover in Toronto was July 30, 2013.
BRITISH COLUMBIA (6 - 3) at TORONTO (4 - 4) - 8/31/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games in August games since 1996.
TORONTO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA (4 - 4 - 1) at MONTREAL (3 - 6) - 9/1/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-3 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-4 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (5 - 4) at SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 8 ) - 9/4/2016, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 11-28 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games in September games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 122-91 ATS (+21.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON (5 - 4) at CALGARY (7 - 1 - 1) - 9/5/2016, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (4 - 4) at HAMILTON (4 - 5) - 9/5/2016, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 7-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 6-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA AT TORONTO
British Columbia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of British Columbia's last 13 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Toronto's last 13 games when playing at home against British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
OTTAWA AT MONTREAL
Ottawa is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Montreal is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Ottawa
WINNIPEG AT SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
EDMONTON AT CALGARY
Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Edmonton is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
TORONTO AT HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Hamilton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
CFL Betting Notes - Week 11
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Week 10 Betting Recap
Road underdogs continue to line the pockets of bettors this season in the CFL with another big week of teams getting points covering against the spread. British Columbia got things started last Thursday with a 29-23 victory on the road against Ottawa as a 3½-point underdog.
In the first of two Friday night matchups, Winnipeg stayed hot in its 32-18 win over Montreal as a 2½-point underdog on the road. Later Friday night Saskatchewan played well enough to cover as a 13½-point road underdog in its 33-25 loss to Edmonton. Turning to Sunday’s CFL action, Calgary was able to break this road team trend ATS with a 30-24 home victory against Hamilton as a four-point favorite. Here is a look at Week 11 in the CFL.
Wednesday, Aug 31
British Columbia Lions (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -2½
Total: 54
Game Overview
The Lions win against Ottawa last week raised their record on the road this season to 4-1 straight-up and a perfect 5-0 ATS. Jonathon Jennings completed 23 passes for 289 yards and a touchdown while backup quarterback Travis Lulay contributed to the win with two rushing touchdowns on three carries. Jennings has now thrown for 2,201 yards and 11 touchdowns on the year.
Toronto begins this rough stretch of two games in just six days with the hopes of having quarterback Ricky Ray back into the lineup this Wednesday night. In previous action this season, he has thrown for 1,235 yards on 115 completions with nine of those catches resulting in scores. He could be just the spark this team needs after posting losses both SU and ATS in its last two games.
Betting Trends
BC lost its first matchup against Toronto 25-14 on July 7 as a 6½-point home favorite. The road team in this interdivision clash has now won the last five meetings both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of the last five meetings.
Thursday, Sept. 1
Ottawa RedBlacks (4-4-1 S, 3-6 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -1
Total: 50
Game Overview
Ottawa has dropped four of its last five games SU while failing to cover the spread in each of those games. This once potent offense has sputtered to an average of 22.8 points a game during this slide to help keep three of the contests UNDER the closing total line. Chris Williams continues to be a force in the passing game with 900 yards receiving and eight touchdown catches, which are the most in the CFL.
Kevin Glenn threw for 283 yards and one touchdown against Winnipeg last week while completing 76.3 percent of his 38 passes. Unfortunately, four of his errant passes where intercepted with one getting returned for a score. Going back over the Alouettes’ six losses this season, this offense has only manage to score an average of 14.2 points in those games.
Betting Trends
These two have split the first two meetings this season with the road teams winning each time SU and ATS. The total was split 1-1 staying UNDER 54 in Montreal. Ottawa still has a 4-1 edge SU and ATS in the last five meetings.
Sunday, Sept. 4
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -5
Total: 52
Game Overview
This will be the first of a home-and-home series. With the Blue Bombers riding a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS, it could be a golden opportunity to really improve its playoff chances against the worst team in the league. Quarterback Matt Nichols continued to lead this surging offense with a 23-for-30 passing effort against Montreal for 220 yards. The defense did its part with that interception returned for a score.
Give credit to the Roughriders for showing up each week and actually covering in three games, but the end result is becoming pretty predictable with just one SU win in the first half of the season. The fact that they were able to put up 25 points in last week’s loss has to be an encouraging sign after scoring a grand total of just 35 points in their previous four defeats.
Betting Trends
Winnipeg won last year’s three-game series 2-1 (SU and ATS) with the total going OVER in two of the three games. It has gone OVER in four of the last five games in this West Division tilt.
Monday, Sept. 5
Edmonton Eskimos (5-4 SU, 3-5-1) vs. Calgary Stampeders (7-1-1 SU, 7-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -6½
Total: 54½
Game Overview
Edmonton is slowly returning to the form that carried this team to a Grey Cup title last year. It has now won its last three games SU while averaging 34 points a game. However, there are is still some big concerns with a defense that has allowed an average of 27.4 points to its opponents. The combination of Mike Reilly throwing the ball to Adarius Bowman has led to 956 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 63 receptions.
The Stampeders are building up some serious steam towards a possible West Division title behind a SU six-game winning streak. They have been able to cover ATS in their last four games with the total staying UNDER in all four contests. Bo Levi Mitchell added 323 more yards to his passing yards total (2,857), which is the second-most in the CFL. He is also second in the league in touchdown throws with 15. Jerome Messam is second in the league in rushing with 542 total yards.
Betting Trends
Edmonton has won the last three games between these two bitter West Division rivals SU and ATS including a 45-31 victory as a three-point home favorite in last year’s playoffs. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings.
Toronto Argonauts (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -7½
Total: 54½
Game Overview
Toronto will be back in action this Monday against an East Division rival that should be well-rested for this game. The Argonauts have shown good balance on offense with 338.5 passing yards a game complementing a rushing attack that is averaging 81.9 yards. Running back Brandon Whitaker has rushed for 432 yards this season, which is the third-highest total in the league.
The Tiger-Cats will try and once again even their mark to .500 on the year both SU and ATS. They are thrilled to have quarterback Zach Collaros back in the starting lineup and despite last Sunday’s loss, he looked pretty impressive throwing the ball with 439 yards passing and three touchdowns while going 34-for-53. Terrence Toliver and Luke Tasker combined for 19 receptions for 283 yards and all three scores.
Betting Trends
The Tiger-Cats drew first blood in the season series with a 42-20 victory in Week 1 as five-point road underdogs. They have now won the last five meetings SU and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings, but it went OVER 52 in that opening day win.
StatFox Super Situations
BRITISH COLUMBIA at TORONTO
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than or equal to 26 after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses 26-6 over the last 5 seasons. ( 81.3% | 19.4 units ) 2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )
EDMONTON at CALGARY
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season 36-10 since 1997. ( 78.3% | 25.0 units )
WINNIPEG at SASKATCHEWAN
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (SASKATCHEWAN) after 5 or more consecutive straight up losses, in weeks 10 through 15 26-10 since 1997. ( 72.2% | 0.0 units )
TORONTO at HAMILTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (TORONTO) dominant team (outgain opp. by 1+ YPP) against a good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP), after gaining 250 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games 22-3 since 1997. ( 88.0% | 18.7 units )
CFL Week 11
British Columbia (6-3) @ Toronto (4-4) – Lions won three of last four games; they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss in OT at Calgary. BC is 3-2 as a favorite this year, 1-0 on road. Argonauts allowed 40 ppg in losing last two games; they’re 1-4 at home this year, play again Monday in Hamilton. Road team covered seven of Argos’ eight games this year. Toronto is 4-2 in last six series games, road team won last five meetings. Argonauts (+6.5) posted 25-14 road upset in Vancouver back in Week 3; Hajrullahu kicked six FGs for Argos. Under is 17-8 in last 25 series games.
Ottawa (4-4-1) @ Montreal (3-6) – Road team won both meetings this year; Alouettes won 43-19 in Ottawa two weeks ago, after losing first meeting 28-13 at home. RedBlacks won four of last five series games, winning 20-16, 28-13 in last two visits here. Ottawa lost four of last five games, allowing 36 ppg last two weeks- they’re 3-1 on road- this is their first road game since July 22. Montreal is 3-0 if they score 22+ points, 0-6 if they don’t; they’ve lost three of last four games, are 1-4 SU at home. Als covered once in their last eight home games.
Armadillosports.com
CFL Week 11
Winnipeg (5-4) @ Saskatchewan (1-8 ) – Blue Bombers’ win here LY snapped 0-12 skid in Regina. Roughriders are 9-3 in last 12 series games, but lost 2 of 3 to Winnipeg LY. Four of last five series games went over the total. Bombers scored 33.3 ppg in winning last four games after a 1-4 start; they’ve won last four road games, scoring 31 ppg since 36-22 loss at Calgary in road opener. Riders lost last five games, allowing 36.2 ppg; they’re 1-3 at home, with all three losses by 9+ points.
Edmonton (5-4) @ Calgary (7-1) – Stampeders had won 12 in row in this Alberta rivalry, but Eskimos won last three meetings LY, by 11-4-14 points; Edmonton lost five of last six visits here- home side won four of last five series games. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Eskimos scored 34 ppg in winning last three games; they’re 2-1 SU on road, covering all three games. Calgary won its last six games, scoring 30+ points in five of those games; Stamps are 3-1 as home favorites this year. Last four Stampeder games stayed under the total.
Toronto (4-5) @ Hamilton (4-5) – Argonauts lost 16-13 at home to BC Wednesday; quick turnaround here. TiCats (+5) opened season with 42-20 win in Toronto, its 5th win in row over Argonauts, who’ve lost last four visits to Hamilton, by 1-16-30-3 points (under 4-0). Toronto lost last three games after a 4-2 start, allowing 32 ppg; they’re 3-0 SU on road (under 3-0), but their last road game was July 31. Hamilton lost three of last four games but all three losses were on road; TiCats are 1-2 at home; five of their last six games were on the road.
Armadillosports.com
StatFox Super Situations
EDMONTON at CALGARY
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (EDMONTON) with a poor defense - allowing 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 7.6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games 39-11 since 1997. ( 78.0% | 0.0 units )
TORONTO at HAMILTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (TORONTO) dominant team (outgain opp. by 1+ YPP) against a good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP), after gaining 250 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games 22-3 since 1997. ( 88.0% | 18.7 units )