LSU vs. Alabama 2009 Week 10 College Football Picks Predictions Print
Written by TheSpread   
Saturday, 07 November 2009 09:00
NCAAF Headline News

LSU at Alabama

The highlight game of the college football weekend takes place Saturday at 3:30PM ET when No. 3 Alabama hosts No. 9 LSU from Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Bet LSU at Alabama
Alabama is 8-0 in 2009 and 5-3 against the spread this season with a 2-3 ATS record at home. The Tide have failed to cover in their last two games, both coming at home. The Tide have covered the spread in both games that they were favored by less than 10 points. Last year’s 27-21 overtime win over LSU was the first win over the Tigers for Alabama in six seasons.

LSU is 7-1 on the season and 4-3-1 against the spread. The lone loss on the season came at the hands of Florida, where the Tigers lost 13-3. LSU is just 1-2 against the spread on the road this season.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made Alabama 7.5-point home favorites over LSU on Saturday night. The over/under total for this game has been established at 38.

Both teams are led by a strong defensive unit. Both are allowing less than 12.5 points per-game and less than 300 yards of offense per-game. The Tide have a very strong rushing defense that is limiting teams to 64 yards rushing per-game. LSU is giving a little more leeway, allowing just over 100 yards on the ground per-outing.

The Tigers will have to find a way to contain Alabama running back Mark Ingram, as Ingram is the best back that LSU has faced this season. Ingram has 1,004 yards rushing with eight touchdowns. With a 6.6 yards per-carry average, Ingram gives the Tide the ability to control the game, making Alabama an attractive pick.

In order for LSU to cover, quarterback Jordan Jefferson must make the big throws. In the loss to Florida, Jefferson threw for just 96 yards and had one interception against a defense that may not be equal to Alabama’s. Jefferson has to step up for LSU to stop the losing trend to the Crimson Tide.

With both team’s defenses able to shut down opposing offenses, you have to compare the offensive talent of the two teams when making this pick. The Tide look to have a more consistent and balanced offensive attack and is our pick to cover the spread against the Tigers on Saturday in a low-scoring affair.

Our College Football Week 10 Free Pick for this matchup is: ALABAMA -7.5 and UNDER 38.
College Football Week 10 Betting Trends
ALABAMA is 9-6 against the spread versus LSU since 1992

LSU is 9-8 straight up against ALABAMA since 1992

8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992 

ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons 

ALABAMA is 1-1 straight up against LSU over the last 3 seasons 

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

LSU is 5-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA since 1992

LSU is 6-2 straight up against ALABAMA since 1992

4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

ALABAMA is 0-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons 

LSU is 1-0 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons 

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

LSU is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

ALABAMA is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

ALABAMA is 44-68 ATS (-30.8 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

ALABAMA is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

ALABAMA is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games since 1992.

ALABAMA is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

LSU: 5-14 ATS vs. conference

ALABAMA: 12-3 ATS off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite

LSU is 4-0-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Alabama

LSU is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Alabama

Alabama is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Week 10 College Football Injury Report
LSU

[RB] 09/13/2009 - Richard Murphy out for season ( Knee ) 

[P] 11/03/2009 - Derek Helton is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Alabama ( Hip ) 

ALABAMA

[DE] 09/14/2009 - Damion Square out for season ( ACL ) 

[LB] 09/28/2009 - Dont'a Hightower out for season ( Knee ) 

[RB] 09/29/2009 - Jeramie Griffin out for season ( Knee ) 

[TE] 11/01/2009 - Colin Peek "?" Saturday vs. LSU ( Knee ) 

[RB] 11/05/2009 - Terry Grant "?" Saturday vs. LSU ( Undisclosed ) 
LSU at Alabama Current Odds
LSU Tigers +7.5 Over 38 (+260)

Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5 Under 38 (-340)
Bet LSU at Alabama
Posted: 11/7/09 2:00PM ET

 

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