By extending their European club competitions, UEFA have given domestic sides more to play for in their individual divisions. In the English Premier League, qualification places go down to seventh place with spots in the Champions League, the Europa League and the Europa Conference League up for grabs.
While the concept has received some criticism, it certainly makes the EPL more interesting as it reaches its final stages. In 2024/25, Liverpool appear to be running away with the title, but behind the Reds, there’s plenty still to play for.
Reds Rampant
While Liverpool have been consistent across the season, the chasing pack have dipped in and out of form. In terms of the remaining European places, it’s been unpredictable for much of the campaign, and it’s difficult to identify qualification with any certainty.
With ten games left, Arne Slot’s Liverpool enjoyed a 13-point lead over Arsenal in second place. Across the sportsbooks, Premier League betting markets make the Reds clear favourites, and that lead looks to be unassailable. We can safely assume that Liverpool will be playing Champions League football next season, but who will join them in European qualification?
Wild Times
Behind the league leaders, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest lead the challenge, and recent results from both camps underline how wildly inconsistent this season has been. At the start of February, Forest demolished Brighton 7-0, but at the end of the month, the team were 4-1 down to Newcastle United inside 35 minutes.
Second-place Arsenal hammered defending champions Manchester City 5-1 on February 2nd, but went on to lose to West Ham and Newcastle later in the month. Despite those reverses, Arsenal have a six-point lead over the chasing pack, and the Gunners also looked certainties for Champions League football.
Nottingham Forest have been steadier since that Newcastle defeat, but it’s incredibly tight in the battle for the remaining UCL slots.
Tightly Bunched
After 27 games of the current Premier League season, just six points separated third-placed Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa, who sat in tenth position. In between those two teams, Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Bournemouth, Brighton and Fulham are battling for the Champions League and minor European places. Seven European slots are on the line, so it’s going to be an exciting run in for everyone involved.
Champions League Verdict
While Manchester City have endured a poor season by their high standards, it’s difficult to see them finishing outside of the top four. The club has reinforced their squad with January signings, and they look the most likely to overtake Nottingham Forest in third.
Much will depend on the goal scoring exploits of prolific striker Erling Haaland, but City look stronger in attack following the arrival of Omar Marmoush.
Forest have defied all odds, but will they have the stamina to last the campaign? Once again, goals are key, and the focus is on striker Chris Wood, who has eighteen goals from his first 27 league games this term.
Chelsea and Newcastle United may well provide the biggest challenges to Arsenal and Manchester City in terms of Champions League qualification. Newcastle’s Swedish international striker Alexander Isak will be the subject of transfer speculation in the summer but for now, his task is to fire the Magpies into the Top Four.
Chelsea’s goal scoring responsibilities have fallen on attacking midfielder Cole Palmer, and he will be the key player for the Blues. Ultimately, with Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City likely to qualify for the Champions League, Chelsea, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest will battle for the remaining slot.
The Battle for Europa League and Beyond
If Chelsea, Newcastle United or Nottingham Forest miss out on Champions League football, it’s likely that they will have the consolation prize of the Europa League. Of the teams fighting for the Europa Conference League place, Bournemouth currently occupy that crucial seventh place.
The closest challenge may come from Aston Villa. While the Villains have slipped to tenth, they’re currently involved in the Champions League, and have developed into a top quality side under Unai Emery. Villa have the depth of squad and the experience to qualify for Europe once again.
Qualification for any of the three European domestic competitions will provide an important injection of revenue. In the 2024/25 season, English clubs received around £15.7 million for making it through to the league stages, and the prize money increases through the knockout rounds.
Teams receive less for making it through to the Europa League and the Europa Conference League, but the additional income provides a welcome boost. The extra cash helps those clubs to invest in their squads and become more competitive at home and in Europe.
The tight bunching behind the league leaders makes for a fascinating run in to the end of the season, and this could be the closest race for European places in Premier League history.