Will the Ravens and Commanders game turn into the best shootouts of the day? Will the Bucs hand Spencer Rattler a loss in his NFL starting debut? Is the Cowboys-Lions game a horrible matchup for Dallas? Check out our NFL Week 6 Best Bets.
NFL Week 5 Best Bets Recap
My three recommendations for Week 5 were the Broncos (-2.5) versus the Raiders, the Panthers (+4) at the Bears and the Packers-Rams over 49. The Broncos handled their business against the Raiders, but the Panthers were dreadful in Chicago and the Packers-Rams game fell under the total. Through the first month-and-half of the season, the NFL has kicked my ass.
Time to get it right.
NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Commanders/Ravens over 51.5
I realize this is chalky, but this game has shootout written all over it today at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore games average 54.6 combined points per game, which is second in the NFL. Washington games, meanwhile, average 54.0 combined pints per game, which is third. While the Commanders average a league-high 5.8 scoring plays per game, the Ravens average 5.0 scoring plays per game, which is tied for second in the NFL.
Both defenses allow a ton of yards through the air. The running ability of Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson add an extra element to both offenses. This is a high total, but it’s high for a reason. I could see both teams getting into the 30s.
NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Tampa Bay Bucs -3.5, 1:00 p.m. ET
This is a bad spot for rookie QB Spencer Rattler, who will face a lot of blitzing from Bucs head coach and defensive game-planner Todd Bowles. The Saints also have injuries along their offensive line, so that could impact Rattler today as well.
The other issue for the Saints is that they’ll be playing on a short week. They were in Kansas City on Monday and Rattler didn’t see the field after Derek Carr injured his oblique. That means Rattler and the Saints only had Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday to prepare for today’s game. (Players are off on Tuesday.)
Meanwhile, the Bucs played last Thursday in Atlanta. While they allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for over five football fields, they also had multiple extra days of rest and preparation for today. The Saints are at a disadvantage no matter how you slice it today.
NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Detroit Lions -3, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Cowboys displayed a lot of grit in their win last Sunday night in Pittsburgh, but today will be an entirely different challenge. While the Lions don’t have the defensive prowess the Steelers do, Detroit has a significantly better offense. Their offensive line is outstanding and the Cowboys continue to deal with injuries to their defensive line.
The Lions are balanced and yet explosive. If Jared Goff can avoid turnovers, then this could turn into a rout. I don’t like the matchup at all for Dallas, which can’t run the ball and leans too heavily on CeeDee Lamb in the passing game. The Lions are not an opponent you want to face when you’re one-dimensional.