Are the Chargers a live dog in Kansas City on Sunday Night Football? Will the Bills handle their business in Inglewood, CA? Read on for our NFL Week 14 Best Bets, which include a pair of totals to consider.
College Football Conference Championship Recap
After posting a 2-1 ATS record in Friday’s conference championship games, I finished 3-1 with my best bets for Saturday’s title matchups. I had Arizona State over Iowa State, Georgia pulling off the outright upset against Texas and Oregon (-1.5) over Penn State in the first half. My lone loss was the Ohio-Miami Ohio over 44, which fell a field goal short. I also had Ohio on the moneyline, Marshall +5.5 and Clemson on the moneyline in my “other” picks I like.
Let’s carry that over to the NFL on Sunday, shall we?
NFL Week 14 Best Game Spread Bet: Buffalo Bills -3.5, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Bills took down the 49ers with ease last Sunday night. Josh Allen looked unfazed by the weather and the Bills are locked in. Could a trip out West ruin their mojo? Perhaps, but the Rams have been an inconsistent bunch this season. Plus, Buffalo should be able to run the ball effectively against Los Angeles’ smaller defensive line. Assuming we don’t get burned by the hook, the Bills should cash.
NFL Week 14 Best Game Total Over Bet: Jaguars-Titans over 40, 1:00 p.m. ET
Neither of these mother truckers have played much defense of late. Over their last three games, Jacksonville has allowed an average of 29 points per game. That’s bested by only five other teams: Cincinnati (37.7), Cleveland (31.7), San Francisco (31.0), New England (31.0) aaaaaannnnnd? Tennessee at 27.7.
I know Trevor Lawrence is out for the season following that nasty hit last week in the loss to the Texans. I also know Mac Jones isn’t very good. That said, both of these defenses are sieves and we’re not dealing with a high hurdle when it comes to the number (40). In the two meetings between these division rivals last season, the over hit both times on similar numbers (40 and 41) as the one we’re getting today (40).
NFL Week 14 Best Game Total Under Bet: Seahawks-Cardinals under 44.5
Want to know the two teams that are allowing the fewest points per game over their past three games? You guessed it! You don’t fall for these lazy setups, do you?
Over their last three games, the Seahawks allowed an average of 14.7 points per contests. Over their last three games, the Cardinals have surrendered an average of just 15.0 points per game. One of those games for each team consisted of the previous Seattle-Arizona matchup, which resulted in a 16-6 home win for the Seahawks. In fact, in the last 10 meetings between these two teams, the under is 7-3, which includes the last three Seattle-Arizona contests.
NFL Week 14 Best Moneyline Bet: Los Angeles Chargers +165, 8:20 p.m. ET
The Chargers offense looked like sh*t last week in Atlanta. The Falcons hadn’t sacked a quarterback since the 60s and yet they brought down Justin Herbert four times. However, the Chargers defense was outstanding, intercepting the washed up Kirk Cousins four times, which included a pick-six.
Meanwhile, we know the story with Kansas City. The Chiefs only seem to play in one possession games where they allow their opponent to crap itself before they pull out a miraculous win. Could that happen tonight in Kansas City? You bet your sweet f*cking ass it could.
That said, here’s the one big, albeit negative, change that I’m currently seeing with the Chiefs. Three weeks ago they surrendered 30 points to the Bills in a 30-21 loss to the Bills. All right, there are a lot of teams that get lit up by Josh Allen. No big deal. The following week, Kansas City traveled to Charlotte, NC and surrendered 27 points to the freaking Panthers. That’s bad, but at least the Panthers have shown signs of life over the past month.
Last week, however, the Chiefs allowed Aidan O’Connell to throw for over 300 yards – at Arrowhead, no less. The only reason the Raiders were held to 17 points is because they’re incompetent. Jim Harbaugh and CO. are not. So if you’re looking for a moneyline play for today, look no further than the Bolts tonight on SNF.