Happy Championship Week in college football, bettors! Will the weekend start off with a wild shootout in Jacksonville? Can UNLV ruin Boise State’s season? Will Tulane get off the mat after losing to Memphis? Check out our Friday Conference Championship Best Bets!
USA Conference Championship Best Bet: WKU-Jacksonville State over 58.5, 7:00 p.m. ET
Forget what you saw last week when these two teams met in the teams’ regular season finales. Jacksonville State had already punched its ticket to the USA Conference Championship Game and thus, didn’t show much offensively. Western Kentucky needed the win to play tonight and good on the Hilltoppers, who did post a 19-17 victory.
I expect the Gamecocks’ rushing attack to open up tonight. Under Rich Rodriguez, they play at a fast pace and often don’t care about time of possession. They want to score as quickly as possible, rest for their defense be damned. The Hilltopper defense has also been awful on third down this season, struggling to get off the field when it matters most (see the Liberty game).
On the other side, the Hilltoppers can throw. The Gamecocks couldn’t get to quarterback Caden Veltkamp last week and if we see a repeat of that tonight, the WKU will put points on the board. Last week the total was 62. Now the number is 58.5 but I think it only dropped because of what we saw last week. But what we saw last week was not a true indication of what both teams can do offensively.
Bring on the points in what should be one of the more fun games of the weekend.
Mountain West Championship Best Bet: UNLV Rebels +5, 8:00 p.m. ET
UNLV has two losses this season: One to Syracuse and one to this same Boise State team that they’ll meet tonight. In that game, the Rebels had a solid game plan for Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty, who did rush for 128 yards on 33 carries, but we didn’t see the back-breaking runs from him that we saw against virtually every other opponent the Broncos played this season. Simply put, UNLV head coach Barry Odom had a terrific game plan to at least keep him in check.
The Broncos haven’t quite been the wagon late in the year that we saw earlier this season. Over their last four games, Boise State covered just once – in a 42-21 victory at San Jose State as a 14-point favorite. Granted, the Broncos have been tasked with covering big numbers and tonight they’re only laying 5.5. Still, Wyoming held this Boise team to 17 points and the Broncos defense looks more vulnerable than it has in previous meetings.
For me, the key to backing a good underdog is knowing that the team could win outright. I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibility tonight. UNLV has had an incredible season and I don’t think that has to stop tonight. This will be a fight tonight.
American Athletic Conference Championship Best Bet: Army Black Cadets +4.5, 8:00 p.m. ET
Perhaps this is too armchair psychologist, but this looks like a horrible situational spot for Tulane. A week ago, everyone was talking about the Green Wave potentially crashing the college football playoff party. But following an ugly loss at home to Memphis as a double-digit favorite, Tulane now has to travel to Western New York to take on a prideful Army team that could finish with 13 wins this season. I realize a conference title is still on the line, but I just can’t see the Green Wave getting up for this game tonight.
Plus, what did Memphis do well last week against Tulane in perfect conditions? Ran the ball. What does Army do better than any team in the nation? You already know. The Tigers rushed for 236 yards in their win. The only other team that has rushed for 200 yards on Tulane was Kansas State, which also beat the Green Wave. How times has Army been held to 200 yards this season, you ask? None.
The Black Knights will force this Tulane team to tackle all night in 25-degree weather. Maybe the Green Wave is fine for a quarter. Maybe even a half. But eventually, I expect the dam to break. While I wouldn’t be shocked to see Army win outright, I do like the Black Knights to at least cover.