Will Georgia pull off another outright upset versus Texas? Will Oregon take care of Penn State, at least in the first half? Read on for our Saturday Conference Championship Best Bets.
Friday Conference Championship Best Bets Recap
I went 2-1 with my conference championship best bets on Friday. I hit the over 58.5 in the USA Conference Championship between Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State, albeit on a garbage time touchdown by the Gamecocks. The game was cruising over all night, but Jacksonville State was doing all the heavy lifting. Fortunately, Rich Rodriguez inserted senior Logan Smothers into the game with 3:00 minutes remaining and the veteran scored on a 4th-and-goal from 10 yards out.
I loved Army +4.5 and the Black Knights rolled to an outright win over Tulane, as well as an American Athletic Conference title. My lone loss was UNLV +5 in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. The Rebels had no answers for Boise State’s defense in a game that felt lost from the second quarter.
Let’s see if we can’t turn a profit again as Championship Weekend continues in college football on Saturday.
Saturday Conference Championship Best Spread Bet: Arizona State -1.5 (-105), 12:00 p.m. ET
I love the Sun Devils. They’re fun as hell. They run the ball with power. They play with a sh*t ton of energy and they might be the most confident team in the nation, which is saying something since, you know, they’re Arizona State. They run the ball down your throat with Cam Skattebo, they don’t turn the ball over and the passing game has improved as of late.
Iowa State has one of the worst run defenses in the Big 12. Good luck dealing with Skattebo. The inconsistent Cyclones feel like they’re a chic pick in some ways, but I’m not buying them. Give me ISU laying the small number.
Saturday Conference Championship Best Moneyline Bet: Georgia Bulldogs (+125), 3:00 p.m. ET
With all due respect to Texas, which I do think is a quality team, I’ll gladly take Kirby Smart’s squad in an underdog role – especially with everyone talking smack because they should have lost to Georgia Tech last weekend. So what? It was a rivalry game and guess what? Miami did lose to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have been pesky since Week 1. Should the Bulldogs have gone to eight overtimes against their in-state rivals? In a perfect world, no. But let’s not pretend that UGA is suddenly a crap team because they nearly lost a rivalry matchup.
Smart is 26-15 against the spread versus ranked opponents. We all remember the last time these two teams met, right? In Austin, TX, no less? Georgia’s defense suffocated Texas’ offense and rolled to a 30-15 win as a 4-point underdog.
I’m not suggesting that the Bulldogs are a flawless team. This clearly isn’t one of Smart’s best squads. Still, sometimes the matchup just isn’t good. And this is a bad matchup for Texas.
Saturday Conference Championship Best First Half Spread Bet: Oregon Ducks -1.5 (-108), 8:00 p.m. ET
I know, I know – this play is square as f*ck. I don’t care. James Franklin hasn’t defeated a top-five opponent since October 2016. Since that point, he’s lost 11 straight games against top-five opponents.
I also don’t give a sh*t about the narrative that Oregon doesn’t need this game. That it might use this opportunity to land in the fifth spot of the rankings, which is supposedly more advantageous than owning the No. 1 seed. But what a load of crock. News flash: Head coaches don’t want to play extra games if it can be avoided. Why risk injury just because, in theory, it would be an easier path to the national championship from the fifth spot than No. 1? I’m not buying it.
Here’s what I know: Both teams have excellent defenses. No team has been able to run on Penn State, so Oregon will need to rely on Dillon Gabriel to protect the ball while also being able to move the chains through the air. But Oregon has an outstanding pass rush that’s deep and talented. The Nittany Lions also lack explosiveness at the skill positions, which is something that does not apply to the Ducks.
You’re going to read a bunch of articles from people much smarter than me that will convince you that Penn State is the play in the Big Ten Championship. They’ll have metrics and pie charts and a bunch of other stuff. Cool. Maybe I’m wrong. Or maybe this is the one lay up this conference championship weekend. Why not take Oregon for the full game? Because I don’t want to deal with the 3.5.
Saturday Conference Championship Best Over/Under Bet: Ohio-Miami Oh over 44, 12:00 p.m. ET
Oddsmakers love to make the total for Ohio-Miami OH matchups low and these two teams have loved to cash the over, at least in recent meetings. These two teams met back in October of this season and combined for 50 points in Miami Ohio’s 30-20 victory. The total in that game was similar to the one we’re getting in today’s MAC Championship Game: 43.5. That was the fourth consecutive time that the over cashed in this matchup.
Look, I understand why the total is so low. Both of these teams want to run the ball and they can both oppose their will on their opponents at times. Miami Ohio’s defense is also fantastic, so it makes sense that the total would be so low.
However, I’m banking on Ohio shutting down Miami Ohio’s rushing attack and when that happens, we’ll see more passing than what oddsmakers project.
Other Saturday Conference Championship Picks I like:
Ohio +112
Marshall +5.5
Clemson +112