The start of a new NFL season brings more than hype—it brings immediate consequences. Early wins don’t just boost morale; they tilt the standings in a way that can impact playoff races months down the line.
The first few weeks are often overlooked in favor of the December grind, but history shows that momentum gained in September matters.
Divisional Games Setting the Tone Early
When the season opens with divisional matchups, the results carry twice the weight. Not only do they impact the overall win-loss record, but they also count toward tiebreakers.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia hosting Dallas in Week 1 isn’t just about fanfare. It’s about seizing the upper hand in a division that’s often decided by razor-thin margins.
The NFC East has been among the NFL’s most volatile divisions in recent years. A win here gives either side a valuable 1–0 divisional mark. With both teams expected to push for double-digit wins, this isn’t just a marquee opener—it’s a possible playoff decider in hindsight.
AFC North Could See Separation Early
The AFC North wastes no time delivering high-stakes contests. In Week 1, Cincinnati visits Cleveland, while Pittsburgh takes on the New York Jets. It’s common for three teams in this division to stay competitive well into December, but a slow start for any of them can spell an uphill climb.
The Bengals, in particular, face a tough early slate. Dropping a divisional road game to a much-improved Browns team could cost them valuable positioning when wild-card scenarios start to form.
Early Conference Games That Could Decide Seeding
Inter-conference matchups are useful benchmarks. That said, intra-conference games—the ones that impact seeding—are where the standings shift faster than most fans realize.
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
When Baltimore travels to Buffalo in Week 1, the winner doesn’t just get a statement win. It secures a key AFC result that could ripple through the NFL standings. In a conference loaded with quarterback talent, seeding will be everything. A top-two finish might mean avoiding Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert until the Championship round.
The Ravens, fresh off a strong finish in 2024, will want to make a point early. The Bills, by contrast, must reassert dominance after a shaky postseason exit.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Detroit aims to prove its rise wasn’t a one-season surge, while Green Bay enters 2025 with legitimate playoff expectations. Their Week 1 clash at Lambeau Field is more than a nostalgic rivalry—it’s a tone-setter.
If the Packers’ Jordan Love stumbles early, the pressure mounts fast. The Lions, meanwhile, need every divisional edge they can get in a conference stacked with contenders. This isn’t just a regional rivalry anymore. It’s a postseason pivot point.
Tough Road Starts That Will Test Depth Early
The opening month is unkind to teams starting with back-to-back road games. It’s a setup that often exposes depth issues and coaching adjustments.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins face road games in Indianapolis and Buffalo within the first month. Those are two physical defenses built to pressure quarterbacks and test offensive timing. Tua Tagovailoa will need to show consistency from the start. A 1–2 opening stretch might leave Miami chasing the Jets and Bills all season. In a tight AFC playoff race, the early losses sting the longest.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers open on the road against Seattle, and later travel to New Orleans in Week 2. Neither environment is easy for visitors. But San Francisco, led by a returning core of defensive stars, can’t afford a shaky start in the NFC West.
With Los Angeles and Arizona both in transition, early wins would give the 49ers the breathing room they missed late last year.
Teams Under the Microscope in the Early Season
Certain franchises enter the season with no margin for error. Whether due to offseason moves, aging rosters, or front office pressure, these teams can’t afford to fall behind early.
New York Jets
After another high-profile offseason, including further investment around Aaron Rodgers, the Jets are under a microscope.
Week 1 against the Steelers isn’t just another game—it’s a litmus test. Lose, and the headlines write themselves. Win, and the AFC East becomes a legitimate three-team race. The New York media won’t wait for Week 5 to assign blame, so a sharp start is crucial.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints enter the 2025 season without veteran quarterback Derek Carr, who retired due to injury complications. That puts enormous pressure on rookie Tyler Shough or backup Jake Haener.
Early matchups against the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers are manageable, but only if the offense can find rhythm. A 2–2 start might be acceptable, but 0–4 would sink playoff hopes before they begin.
Schedule Quirks That Could Shift the Standings
The 2025 NFL calendar includes some early quirks that could quietly shift standings. A Friday night game in Brazil and a Monday night doubleheader in Week 2 aren’t just programming moves—they affect recovery and momentum.
The Chiefs and Chargers face off in São Paulo on September 5, a high-profile game with lingering effects. Travel fatigue and time zone shifts could impact their Week 2 performance, opening the door for AFC West rivals to steal early ground.
Meanwhile, teams like Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Houston have Week 5 byes, meaning they must survive four games before any rest. If injuries stack up in Weeks 2 or 3, depth becomes a deciding factor long before the playoff race tightens.
September Matters More Than You Think
The common narrative is that early-season NFL games “don’t matter as much.” That logic is flawed. Every team plays 17 games. A loss in Week 2 counts the same as a loss in Week 16. But in September, teams are healthier, schedules are more balanced, and tiebreaker scenarios are wide open.
Those who take advantage can coast into December with fewer must-win games. Those who stumble find themselves in desperation mode by Thanksgiving. This month is more than a warm-up—it’s the start of separation.