Will the Chiefs put the ball in the air enough for Patrick Mahomes to go higher on his passing attempts Sunday in the AFC Championship Game? Will Travis Kelce have another big day against the Bills at Arrowhead Stadium? Read on for our Bills vs. Chiefs Underdog Fantasy Picks.
Bills vs. Chiefs Underdog Fantasy Picks: Patrick Mahomes 35.5 Pass Attempts (Higher)
Mahomes also has a total of 35.5 for passing attempts. Last Sunday was the first time Mahomes fell lower than his passing attempts total in seven games. In fact, he has gone higher than his passing attempts total in seven out of his last nine games.
Andy Reid loves throwing the ball in the playoffs. Even when the temperatures were freezing last year in the Chiefs’ Wildcard matchup with the Dolphins, Reid had Mahomes put the ball in the air 41 times. The following week in Buffalo, Mahomes only attempted 23 passes but his attempts were back up to 39 the following Sunday in the AFC Championship win over the Ravens. Mahomes had 46 attempts in the Super Bowl win over the 49ers (it’s important to note that the game did go to overtime).
Let’s dive deeper. Mahomes has played in six AFC title games in his career. His first came in 2018 against the Patriots in which he attempted 31 passes. The following year, Mahomes faced the Titans and threw the ball 35 times. In 2020 against this same Buffalo team, Mahomes attempted 38 passes. In 2021, he attempted 39 passes against the Bengals and in 2022, he put the ball in the air 43 times against that same Cincinnati opponent. Then came last year, when he attempted 39 passes against Baltimore.
Thus, in six AFC title game appearances, Mahomes has averaged 37.5 pass attempts. He went lower than 36 pass attempts just twice in those six games, neither of which came in the last four years.
Bills vs. Chiefs Underdog Fantasy Picks: Travis Kelce 70.5 Receiving Yards (Higher)
Kelce has faced the Bills five times in his career at Arrowhead Stadium, including playoffs. In those five games, he has racked up at least 55 yards receiving. In four of those five games, Kelce had at least 80 yards receiving. He also caught at least six passes in all five games and scored a total of four touchdowns in those five meetings with Buffalo at Arrowhead.
Playoff Travis Kelce emerged again last week for the Chiefs. He went off for 117 yards against the Texans, crushing his receiving yardage total (54.5) in the process. He’s now gone over his receiving yards number in five out of his last nine games.
Bills vs. Chiefs Underdog Fantasy Picks: Khalil Shakir 7.0 Targets (Higher)
Shakir went lowerfor receiving yards in his three games entering the playoffs. That said, he went higher in both of the Bills’ playoff games. He also went higher his receiving yards total against the Chiefs in the first meeting between these two teams.
After Stefon Diggs was traded to the Texans in the offseason, Shakir emerged as Josh Allen’s go-to receiver during the regular season. Even after the Bills acquired Amari Cooper at the trade deadline this year, Shakir remained Allen’s primary weapon. If Buffalo advances to the Super Bowl with a win this evening in Kansas City, Shakir will need to be heavily involved.
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